ThisGuyFawkes wrote:Interesting discussion. I feel like I'm correct, but I'd need a lot of time to gather my thoughts and conceptualize them. But because I'm both lazy and don't have that kind of time, I'll concede to your points.
![:D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
The classic
![Image](https://i.imgflip.com/46vszi.png)
I admit I haven't thought about this incredibly robustly, so it's possible there are errors in my thought process that I haven't considered.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/195249/revenue-of-the-chicago-bears-since-2006/I believe the calculation would look like this though:
If you look at it this way, just quick google search, Bears revenue was 124M in 2001 and 556M in 2022
Dates aren't precise, just the ones I could get pulling up a 30 year chart through trial and error but I promise I'm not trying to cherry pick.
S&P value Jan/2001: 1342
S&P value Jan/2002: 4677
Bears $: worth 4.48x what it was in 2001 in 2022
S&P $: 3.48 what it was in 2001 in 2022
If you made 1% extra revenue in 2001 and invested it in the S&P500, you would have 1.24M *3.48 = 4.3152M dollars in 2022
If you made 1% extra revenue in 2022 then you'd have 5.56M more dollars
Thus to the extent you believe a draft pick can swing revenue, historically with the NFL's growth rate, you are better off gaining revenue later. Now you wouldn't have to invest in the S&P500 it was just something I tried to use as a reasonable investment, and there's no reason the NFL has to continue growing faster than the S&P500 either.
Also, like I said, I don't know that winning has a high correlation of revenue:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/193553/revenue-of-national-football-league-teams-in-2010/Here's the 2022 data, I'm not sure what the Cowboys got going on there that the rest of the league doesn't or if there is some crazy error in it.
![:lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
But the Chiefs are lower half of the list despite having won the superbowl in 2020 and favorites to compete every year since. Just to show some data how winning isn't highly correlated to revenues in the NFL like it can be in other areas.