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League Circles wrote:

GoBlue72391 wrote:I don't think Coby would command all that much in a trade. It's looking more and more like he may have just had an extended hot streak and he's come back down to Earth.

We overrated and overvalued him and overreacted to a hot streak and assumed/hoped that was actually the real Coby. He's improved and a better overall player, but he's still just a supporting piece, not a cornerstone.

Even if his hot streak turns out to be closer to the real Coby, he's still a wildly inconsistent player and poor-to-neutral defender.

Besides that, I just don't think your plan is good even if it were to hypothetically happen.

I'd be interested in any evidence that he's wildly inconsistent (as as standard deviation of shooting %s from night to night compared to peers or something). I also think he's firmly an average to above average defender now. He's a really good, young, engaged player with no glaring holes in his game. He's our best roster piece by a significant margin.

2weekswithpay wrote:

League Circles wrote:

GoBlue72391 wrote:I don't think Coby would command all that much in a trade. It's looking more and more like he may have just had an extended hot streak and he's come back down to Earth.

We overrated and overvalued him and overreacted to a hot streak and assumed/hoped that was actually the real Coby. He's improved and a better overall player, but he's still just a supporting piece, not a cornerstone.

Even if his hot streak turns out to be closer to the real Coby, he's still a wildly inconsistent player and poor-to-neutral defender.

Besides that, I just don't think your plan is good even if it were to hypothetically happen.

I'd be interested in any evidence that he's wildly inconsistent (as as standard deviation of shooting %s from night to night compared to peers or something). I also think he's firmly an average to above average defender now. He's a really good, young, engaged player with no glaring holes in his game. He's our best roster piece by a significant margin.

Coby's defense is probably the most overrated part of his game now. He hasn't been average in months. Besides taking charges what exactly does he provide on defense? He doesn't guard the ballhandler, Ayo and Caruso do that and he's too small for a good help defender.

League Circles wrote:

Stratmaster wrote:

League Circles wrote:Oh, you believe in the hot hand fallacy. I thought everyone knew that was fiction by now.

How does this this alleged 8 game stretch compare to peers? Has, IDK, a guy like, say, Zach Lavine ever shot those numbers over an 8 game stretch. If he has, is he streaky too then? And only to be given lots of shots when it's clear he's on a hot night (no such thing)?

If you have ever played basketball, you know it's not a fallacy. If you don't believe Coby has hot and cold streaks, you haven't been watching him his entire career. But your condescension is noted.

Zach Lavine has nothing to do with this. But when reasonably healthy, he has consistently scored 23 to 27 ppg with .600+ efficiency. If you're looking to build a case that Coby isn't inconsistent, you picked a really bad player to compare him to. If you believe Coby is having his best season (and he is) his .572 ts%, 44% fg% and 38% 3 point percentage don't really comp very well against a 5 season sample from Zach. 5 seasons. That is consistency. Not a 2 month stretch. You might want to take a look at Coby's game logs this season.

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Just read up on the hot hand fallacy. I've played thousands of hours of basketball. The notion isn't that guys don't have "hot" and "cold" nights. It's that that can only be defined after the fact, but what people like you suggest is that you can identify in real time whether a guy is on one of these binary nights, which is absolutely, positively a fallacy. Plenty of times we've seen guys go cold for 3 quarters and then hot for one, or vice versa. There has never been any correlation shown between how a guy performs on say his first 5-10 shots in a game and how his next 10 shots perform relative to his average performance.

You pulled some relatively bad shooting numbers for Coby in a small 8 game sample to try to prove that he is "streaky". But you didn't relate that to anyone else, and when confronted with the notion that your beloved Zach might have had similarly poor 8 game stretches, you laughably list his peak season averages.

I believe Coby is better than Zach because I believe he makes smarter plays on offense and defense, that is a more engaged competitor. I believe this is reflected in on/off numbers, where he has vastly out performed Zach this season and last season, and which have been poor for Zach for virtually his entire career.

But again, it is others who are saying Coby is "streaky" with zero evidence. I think that's just a common perception people have of higher volume scorers, who are mostly all like that, especially perimeter guys.

DuckIII wrote:This is a terrible idea. You might be in luck if the FO is hiring.

League Circles wrote:

Stratmaster wrote:

League Circles wrote:Oh, you believe in the hot hand fallacy. I thought everyone knew that was fiction by now.

How does this this alleged 8 game stretch compare to peers? Has, IDK, a guy like, say, Zach Lavine ever shot those numbers over an 8 game stretch. If he has, is he streaky too then? And only to be given lots of shots when it's clear he's on a hot night (no such thing)?

If you have ever played basketball, you know it's not a fallacy. If you don't believe Coby has hot and cold streaks, you haven't been watching him his entire career. But your condescension is noted.

Zach Lavine has nothing to do with this. But when reasonably healthy, he has consistently scored 23 to 27 ppg with .600+ efficiency. If you're looking to build a case that Coby isn't inconsistent, you picked a really bad player to compare him to. If you believe Coby is having his best season (and he is) his .572 ts%, 44% fg% and 38% 3 point percentage don't really comp very well against a 5 season sample from Zach. 5 seasons. That is consistency. Not a 2 month stretch. You might want to take a look at Coby's game logs this season.

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Just read up on the hot hand fallacy. I've played thousands of hours of basketball. The notion isn't that guys don't have "hot" and "cold" nights. It's that that can only be defined after the fact, but what people like you suggest is that you can identify in real time whether a guy is on one of these binary nights, which is absolutely, positively a fallacy. Plenty of times we've seen guys go cold for 3 quarters and then hot for one, or vice versa. There has never been any correlation shown between how a guy performs on say his first 5-10 shots in a game and how his next 10 shots perform relative to his average performance.

You pulled some relatively bad shooting numbers for Coby in a small 8 game sample to try to prove that he is "streaky". But you didn't relate that to anyone else, and when confronted with the notion that your beloved Zach might have had similarly poor 8 game stretches, you laughably list his peak season averages.

I believe Coby is better than Zach because I believe he makes smarter plays on offense and defense, that is a more engaged competitor. I believe this is reflected in on/off numbers, where he has vastly out performed Zach this season and last season, and which have been poor for Zach for virtually his entire career.

But again, it is others who are saying Coby is "streaky" with zero evidence. I think that's just a common perception people have of higher volume scorers, who are mostly all like that, especially perimeter guys.

drosestruts wrote:
But, sure, there's logic in trading guys like Coby, Ayo, and Williams for future draft capital if entering a rebuild.

Stratmaster wrote:

League Circles wrote:

Stratmaster wrote:If you have ever played basketball, you know it's not a fallacy. If you don't believe Coby has hot and cold streaks, you haven't been watching him his entire career. But your condescension is noted.

Zach Lavine has nothing to do with this. But when reasonably healthy, he has consistently scored 23 to 27 ppg with .600+ efficiency. If you're looking to build a case that Coby isn't inconsistent, you picked a really bad player to compare him to. If you believe Coby is having his best season (and he is) his .572 ts%, 44% fg% and 38% 3 point percentage don't really comp very well against a 5 season sample from Zach. 5 seasons. That is consistency. Not a 2 month stretch. You might want to take a look at Coby's game logs this season.

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

Just read up on the hot hand fallacy. I've played thousands of hours of basketball. The notion isn't that guys don't have "hot" and "cold" nights. It's that that can only be defined after the fact, but what people like you suggest is that you can identify in real time whether a guy is on one of these binary nights, which is absolutely, positively a fallacy. Plenty of times we've seen guys go cold for 3 quarters and then hot for one, or vice versa. There has never been any correlation shown between how a guy performs on say his first 5-10 shots in a game and how his next 10 shots perform relative to his average performance.

You pulled some relatively bad shooting numbers for Coby in a small 8 game sample to try to prove that he is "streaky". But you didn't relate that to anyone else, and when confronted with the notion that your beloved Zach might have had similarly poor 8 game stretches, you laughably list his peak season averages.

I believe Coby is better than Zach because I believe he makes smarter plays on offense and defense, that is a more engaged competitor. I believe this is reflected in on/off numbers, where he has vastly out performed Zach this season and last season, and which have been poor for Zach for virtually his entire career.

But again, it is others who are saying Coby is "streaky" with zero evidence. I think that's just a common perception people have of higher volume scorers, who are mostly all like that, especially perimeter guys.

Here is one for you. Coby has 9 games this season where he has taken 20 shots or more. He failed to score 20 points in 4 of them.

This season and last Zach had 30 games where he shot 20 times or more. He didn't have a single one where he didn't score 20 points. I'm not sure he ever has had a game like that, although I expect there has to be one or two out there.

Is that Coby being "smarter on offense"? Consistency?

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Stratmaster wrote:

League Circles wrote:

Stratmaster wrote:If you have ever played basketball, you know it's not a fallacy. If you don't believe Coby has hot and cold streaks, you haven't been watching him his entire career. But your condescension is noted.

Zach Lavine has nothing to do with this. But when reasonably healthy, he has consistently scored 23 to 27 ppg with .600+ efficiency. If you're looking to build a case that Coby isn't inconsistent, you picked a really bad player to compare him to. If you believe Coby is having his best season (and he is) his .572 ts%, 44% fg% and 38% 3 point percentage don't really comp very well against a 5 season sample from Zach. 5 seasons. That is consistency. Not a 2 month stretch. You might want to take a look at Coby's game logs this season.

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

Just read up on the hot hand fallacy. I've played thousands of hours of basketball. The notion isn't that guys don't have "hot" and "cold" nights. It's that that can only be defined after the fact, but what people like you suggest is that you can identify in real time whether a guy is on one of these binary nights, which is absolutely, positively a fallacy. Plenty of times we've seen guys go cold for 3 quarters and then hot for one, or vice versa. There has never been any correlation shown between how a guy performs on say his first 5-10 shots in a game and how his next 10 shots perform relative to his average performance.

You pulled some relatively bad shooting numbers for Coby in a small 8 game sample to try to prove that he is "streaky". But you didn't relate that to anyone else, and when confronted with the notion that your beloved Zach might have had similarly poor 8 game stretches, you laughably list his peak season averages.

I believe Coby is better than Zach because I believe he makes smarter plays on offense and defense, that is a more engaged competitor. I believe this is reflected in on/off numbers, where he has vastly out performed Zach this season and last season, and which have been poor for Zach for virtually his entire career.

But again, it is others who are saying Coby is "streaky" with zero evidence. I think that's just a common perception people have of higher volume scorers, who are mostly all like that, especially perimeter guys.

Again, Zach has nothing to do with this. There is no universe where Coby has been better than Zach was. Whether Zach will be that good again, none of us know.

The hot hand fallacy claims that a series of positive outcomes doesn't predict another consecutive outcome. No one said it does. But it is based on math probability, and you have to distinguish between situations where human psychology and physiology don't affect the outcome (e.g. Rolling dice) vs. situations where human nature does affect it (e.g. shooting a basketball).

"What people like me said"? I never said anything like what you just stated. Coby has always been a streaky player. When hot he is a huge asset. When not, he isn't an asset. That's all I am saying and I can't bellend you would even debate it.

When comparing Coby to other players, you make the mistake of confusing activity with accomplishment and confusing effort with effectiveness.

Activity can at least be measured and can have a positive impact on accomplishment. It is necessary for, but does not equate to, accomplishment.

Effort is a completely subjective Stacey King platitude.

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League Circles wrote:

Stratmaster wrote:

League Circles wrote:Just read up on the hot hand fallacy. I've played thousands of hours of basketball. The notion isn't that guys don't have "hot" and "cold" nights. It's that that can only be defined after the fact, but what people like you suggest is that you can identify in real time whether a guy is on one of these binary nights, which is absolutely, positively a fallacy. Plenty of times we've seen guys go cold for 3 quarters and then hot for one, or vice versa. There has never been any correlation shown between how a guy performs on say his first 5-10 shots in a game and how his next 10 shots perform relative to his average performance.

You pulled some relatively bad shooting numbers for Coby in a small 8 game sample to try to prove that he is "streaky". But you didn't relate that to anyone else, and when confronted with the notion that your beloved Zach might have had similarly poor 8 game stretches, you laughably list his peak season averages.

I believe Coby is better than Zach because I believe he makes smarter plays on offense and defense, that is a more engaged competitor. I believe this is reflected in on/off numbers, where he has vastly out performed Zach this season and last season, and which have been poor for Zach for virtually his entire career.

But again, it is others who are saying Coby is "streaky" with zero evidence. I think that's just a common perception people have of higher volume scorers, who are mostly all like that, especially perimeter guys.

Here is one for you. Coby has 9 games this season where he has taken 20 shots or more. He failed to score 20 points in 4 of them.

This season and last Zach had 30 games where he shot 20 times or more. He didn't have a single one where he didn't score 20 points. I'm not sure he ever has had a game like that, although I expect there has to be one or two out there.

Is that Coby being "smarter on offense"? Consistency?

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Sounds like an extremely arbitrarily chosen set of thresholds. What is the significance of 20 shots? Or 20 points? For example, in the games where Coby shot 20 times, was he avergaing 21 shots compared to 27 shots for Zach? Not saying he was, just saying you're not providing any relevant information to make your point.

League Circles wrote:

Stratmaster wrote:

League Circles wrote:Just read up on the hot hand fallacy. I've played thousands of hours of basketball. The notion isn't that guys don't have "hot" and "cold" nights. It's that that can only be defined after the fact, but what people like you suggest is that you can identify in real time whether a guy is on one of these binary nights, which is absolutely, positively a fallacy. Plenty of times we've seen guys go cold for 3 quarters and then hot for one, or vice versa. There has never been any correlation shown between how a guy performs on say his first 5-10 shots in a game and how his next 10 shots perform relative to his average performance.

You pulled some relatively bad shooting numbers for Coby in a small 8 game sample to try to prove that he is "streaky". But you didn't relate that to anyone else, and when confronted with the notion that your beloved Zach might have had similarly poor 8 game stretches, you laughably list his peak season averages.

I believe Coby is better than Zach because I believe he makes smarter plays on offense and defense, that is a more engaged competitor. I believe this is reflected in on/off numbers, where he has vastly out performed Zach this season and last season, and which have been poor for Zach for virtually his entire career.

But again, it is others who are saying Coby is "streaky" with zero evidence. I think that's just a common perception people have of higher volume scorers, who are mostly all like that, especially perimeter guys.

Again, Zach has nothing to do with this. There is no universe where Coby has been better than Zach was. Whether Zach will be that good again, none of us know.

The hot hand fallacy claims that a series of positive outcomes doesn't predict another consecutive outcome. No one said it does. But it is based on math probability, and you have to distinguish between situations where human psychology and physiology don't affect the outcome (e.g. Rolling dice) vs. situations where human nature does affect it (e.g. shooting a basketball).

"What people like me said"? I never said anything like what you just stated. Coby has always been a streaky player. When hot he is a huge asset. When not, he isn't an asset. That's all I am saying and I can't bellend you would even debate it.

When comparing Coby to other players, you make the mistake of confusing activity with accomplishment and confusing effort with effectiveness.

Activity can at least be measured and can have a positive impact on accomplishment. It is necessary for, but does not equate to, accomplishment.

Effort is a completely subjective Stacey King platitude.

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This is exactly what you said that started the exchange about whether or not the notion of riding the hot hand is a valid idea:

"Coby is a great piece to have when you need streak scoring. No way he should be taking 21 shots in a game like the one he was having last night.

He will have more hot games, and that's when he needs to be the focus."

So please elaborate on how and when a coach is supposed to decide whether a guy is "hot" or "cold". It's just simply not binary like that. Serious people have researched this, it's not a controversial topic once you think it through. If a guy starts 0-10 there is simply no evidence that his next 10 shots will be any better or worse than his averages. So, no, a coach should not focus on shots for Coby just cause he starts hot, and vice versa. Now, matchup specific strategy, sure, but not just based on shooting numbers halfway through a game or whatever.

Stratmaster wrote:

League Circles wrote:

Stratmaster wrote:Here is one for you. Coby has 9 games this season where he has taken 20 shots or more. He failed to score 20 points in 4 of them.

This season and last Zach had 30 games where he shot 20 times or more. He didn't have a single one where he didn't score 20 points. I'm not sure he ever has had a game like that, although I expect there has to be one or two out there.

Is that Coby being "smarter on offense"? Consistency?

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Sounds like an extremely arbitrarily chosen set of thresholds. What is the significance of 20 shots? Or 20 points? For example, in the games where Coby shot 20 times, was he avergaing 21 shots compared to 27 shots for Zach? Not saying he was, just saying you're not providing any relevant information to make your point.

You don't provide any relevant information, period. Just that "you think" something.

Let me state it again and leave Lavine out of it. 4 out of 9 games when Coby took 20 or more shots, he didn't score 20 points. Smart offense?

The 20 points equates to 1 point per shot which is pretty bad efficency.

The 20 shots equates to "a lot of **** shots and usage that should result in points scored"

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DuckIII wrote:

drosestruts wrote:
But, sure, there's logic in trading guys like Coby, Ayo, and Williams for future draft capital if entering a rebuild.

Those are the types of guys you absolutely do not trade if you enter a full rebuild. You trade the vets for young or future assets while empowering and developing the more veteran youth as leaders to fully see what you have.

DuckIII wrote:

drosestruts wrote:
But, sure, there's logic in trading guys like Coby, Ayo, and Williams for future draft capital if entering a rebuild.

Those are the types of guys you absolutely do not trade if you enter a full rebuild. You trade the vets for young or future assets while empowering and developing the more veteran youth as leaders to fully see what you have.

DuckIII wrote:

drosestruts wrote:
But, sure, there's logic in trading guys like Coby, Ayo, and Williams for future draft capital if entering a rebuild.

Those are the types of guys you absolutely do not trade if you enter a full rebuild. You trade the vets for young or future assets while empowering and developing the more veteran youth as leaders to fully see what you have.