In depth look at Rose what really makes an MVP

[M_1]

Great work. The stats perfectly resume my thoughts on D.Rose and the MVP award. He´s definetely close and could win it this year b/c of weak competition, but overall he just needs to be a bit more efficient.It´s a small step and I´m sure he will reach it as he´s been doing it by going to the line more often recently and if this continues, he´ll win the MVP in the foreseeable future. No doubt about it.

[alucryts]

A lot of those stats can be explained by the wide variety of types of players to win the award. Plenty of bigs getting 3 or less assists have won, and plenty of PG's getting less than 5 rebounds have won. It just so happens that when a big does win, they get loads more boards, etc. I feel this data is largely inconclusive, thought the PER stats and a few others were enlightening.

ya you really have to take it for what its worth and use context. rose should excel at scoring and assist, so looking at those graphs you can see hed excel at assists especially and a lot of former mvps only beat the average in 1 category of pts/ast/reb. if rose could beat the average in points and assists i think he would have strong mvp stats as well as if he could beat the average in ts% and assists.

[Shill]

bogans has some catching up to do:

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/8047/bogans.png

[DanTown8587]

Of the past 20 MVP winners, only two were guys who

1. Played the majority of the previous season
2. Didn't finish top 5 in the previous MVP ballot

01 Iverson and 05 Nash

Derrick would have to make the leap from no votes to MVP winner, only done by Steve Nash (who changed teams).

Guys don't win the MVP the first year they are in discussion for it. Just never happens.

[grinderANC]

Great post man. Great analysis of those stats. Way to put it into perspective.

[grinderANC]

Of the past 20 MVP winners, only two were guys who

1. Played the majority of the previous season
2. Didn't finish top 5 in the previous MVP ballot

01 Iverson and 05 Nash

Derrick would have to make the leap from no votes to MVP winner, only done by Steve Nash (who changed teams).

Guys don't win the MVP the first year they are in discussion for it. Just never happens.

Here's to hoping Rose can buck that trend

[23forever]

Amazing stuff alucryts. Dare I say, MVP type post?

haha this is exactly what I was thinking. The sad thing about the award is that it tends to mirror a career achievement in most cases. I feel like players win it when it becomes undeniable and they have paid their dues. I agree with your assessment of what Derrick has to improve to have a good shot at winning the award, but also second the sentiment that it's extremely rare for someone to get the MVP nod the first year in which they become a serious part of the discussion. I'm also really bothered by what's going on with the Heat/Cavs lately. Lebron is playing extremely well and the Heat are winning a lot, while the Cavs are looking like a historically bad team (see 112-57 last night). It just proves how valuable that coward was to Cleveland's success. I'm just hoping the fact that Wade's strong numbers coupled with the fact that he has never won the award will indeed steal sentimental votes from Lebron because as much as I hate to admit it, I think it's pretty clear cut that Lebron remains the "more valuable" of the two. If the Mavs keep losing, the Heat cool off a bit, and Derrick improves in the areas you suggested, I think we've got a little more than a puncher's chance despite the award's history.

[LoveDaBoo]

Amazing stuff alucryts. Dare I say, MVP type post?

Eh, MVPs typically have post counts of over 10,000. For alucryts to have a legitimate shot, he needs to be picked up by the national media or something.

[alucryts]

Amazing stuff alucryts. Dare I say, MVP type post?

Eh, MVPs typically have post counts of over 10,000. For alucryts to have a legitimate shot, he needs to be picked up by the national media or something.

ya and i dont have enough years lmao

[TheWhitePanther]

What I don't understand is how Dirk Nowitzki is everyone's frontrunner for MVP all of a sudden. The guy is having statistically one of the worst years of his career. If he's the MVP this year, he should have been the MVP each of the previous eight years. The Western Conference is now inferior to the East as far as I'm concerned so Dallas probably gets a little too much credit for being a the current #2 seed - where in year's past being the #5 seed in the West meant were better than everyone in the East. Dallas success has every bit to do with how good the rest of that team has become as it does the 2010-11 version of Dirk that is 85-90% of the guy who won the MVP in 07 (that probably didn't deserve it then either).

[alucryts]

What I don't understand is how Dirk Nowitzki is everyone's frontrunner for MVP all of a sudden. The guy is having statistically one of the worst years of his career. If he's the MVP this year, he should have been the MVP each of the previous eight years. The Western Conference is now inferior to the East as far as I'm concerned so Dallas probably gets a little too much credit for being a the current #2 seed - where in year's past being the #5 seed in the West meant were better than everyone in the East. Dallas success has every bit to do with how good the rest of that team has become as it does the 2010-11 version of Dirk that is 85-90% of the guy who won the MVP in 07 (that probably didn't deserve it then either).

hes on a team on track for 60+ wins, either 1 or 2 seed, and his stats are inline with other MVPs. no one else can say all of that imo

[chadrucf]

What I don't understand is how Dirk Nowitzki is everyone's frontrunner for MVP all of a sudden. The guy is having statistically one of the worst years of his career. If he's the MVP this year, he should have been the MVP each of the previous eight years.

If that's the way MVPs were given out, there would be at least 4 every year.

[Jimmy76]

A coldfish recommend thread

Sick charts

[Ben Wilson25]

What I don't understand is how Dirk Nowitzki is everyone's frontrunner for MVP all of a sudden. The guy is having statistically one of the worst years of his career. If he's the MVP this year, he should have been the MVP each of the previous eight years. The Western Conference is now inferior to the East as far as I'm concerned so Dallas probably gets a little too much credit for being a the current #2 seed - where in year's past being the #5 seed in the West meant were better than everyone in the East. Dallas success has every bit to do with how good the rest of that team has become as it does the 2010-11 version of Dirk that is 85-90% of the guy who won the MVP in 07 (that probably didn't deserve it then either).

hes on a team on track for 60+ wins, either 1 or 2 seed, and his stats are inline with other MVPs. no one else can say all of that imo

Some of the guys who voted for Dirk in '07 might be a little hesitant to vote for him again since immediately after accepting the MVP trophy he proceeded to go out and get embarrassed by the 8 seed in the first round. Rose might benefit from that and the backlash against LeBron. IMO his biggest threat is Wade if the Heat keep rolling.

I still think his chances are very slim for a lot of the reasons stated earlier; we'll probably be no higher than a 3 seed and he hasn't "paid his dues" (same reason it is very rare for rookies to be voted as all-stars no matter how good they are).

[PMONSTER]

What I don't understand is how Dirk Nowitzki is everyone's frontrunner for MVP all of a sudden. The guy is having statistically one of the worst years of his career. If he's the MVP this year, he should have been the MVP each of the previous eight years. The Western Conference is now inferior to the East as far as I'm concerned so Dallas probably gets a little too much credit for being a the current #2 seed - where in year's past being the #5 seed in the West meant were better than everyone in the East. Dallas success has every bit to do with how good the rest of that team has become as it does the 2010-11 version of Dirk that is 85-90% of the guy who won the MVP in 07 (that probably didn't deserve it then either).

hes on a team on track for 60+ wins, either 1 or 2 seed, and his stats are inline with other MVPs. no one else can say all of that imo

I was really hoping that Dallas would win every game that Dirk was out. But with that being said I bet they are 5 by the time the playoffs start in the WC.

[alucryts]

What I don't understand is how Dirk Nowitzki is everyone's frontrunner for MVP all of a sudden. The guy is having statistically one of the worst years of his career. If he's the MVP this year, he should have been the MVP each of the previous eight years. The Western Conference is now inferior to the East as far as I'm concerned so Dallas probably gets a little too much credit for being a the current #2 seed - where in year's past being the #5 seed in the West meant were better than everyone in the East. Dallas success has every bit to do with how good the rest of that team has become as it does the 2010-11 version of Dirk that is 85-90% of the guy who won the MVP in 07 (that probably didn't deserve it then either).

hes on a team on track for 60+ wins, either 1 or 2 seed, and his stats are inline with other MVPs. no one else can say all of that imo

I was really hoping that Dallas would win every game that Dirk was out. But with that being said I bet they are 5 by the time the playoffs start in the WC.

if dallas drops at all he wont have a prayer imo