In depth look at Rose what really makes an MVP
Posted: Wed Jan 12, 2011 5:45 am
I went through and put together most of the stats for all former MVPs in one excel to really see what makes voters choose an MVP. I took all MVPs from the 3 point era. I looked at wins, per, ppg, apg, rpg, year of career when award was won, seed, ts%, did they lead the league in a major category, and impact (simple points + assists + rebounds). Here is what I found for the average MVP
(includes average, standard deviation, and skewness of data. skewness refers to which side of the average the data "favors")
Wins:
61.1 with standard deviation of 5.25 and the data skewed higher
Seed:
1.42 with standard deviation of 1.03 and the data skewed MUCH lower
PER:
27.01 with standard deviation of 2.59 and the data skewed lower
PPG:
26.42 with standard deviation of 3.97 and the data skewed higher
APG:
5.86 with standard deviation of 3.03 and the data skewed higher
RPG:
9.00 with standard deviation of 3.32 and the data skewed lower
TS%
58.61% with standard deviation of 2.72% and the data skewed higher
Points + Assist + Rebounds
41.27 with standard deviation of 3.73 and the data skewed higher
Years in League at time of MVP
8.68 with standard deviation of 2.59 and the data skewed slightly lower
Also 71% of the MVPs led the league in a major statistical category.....not THAT strong of a trend at all though
those were the raw numbers. In terms of what makes an MVP, a VERY strong trend was seeding.
24 MVP's from a 1 seed
4 MVP's from a 2 seed
2 MVP's from a 3 seed
1 MVP from a 6 seed
What does this all have to do with rose? well see for yourself. blue marks are former MVPs while the red mark is rose.
for the most part, rose is near the bottom of the pack in all of the categories. his "gaudy" stats so far this season would make a weak MVP candidates numbers, but they would not stick out as being a bad or undeserving MVP....just pretty weak. Even as a 3 seed in the east, I could see rose having the record (as long as we dont drop below 55 wins) to win this year.
I do not think rose has the combination of stats and/or wins to make it. if the voters are crazy enough to give it to wade or lebron, rose doesnt have a prayer. If rose wins the MVP, he would literally rewrite MVP history by doing it this early in his career. no one has gotten MVP in only his 3rd year in the league....it would be totally unprecedented. also, as you guessed, rose would be the youngest MVP ever.
I think rose will improve his ppg and ts%. also, with our schedule, I could see if we dont have a lul getting 55 wins. if rose does these two i think hell have a real shot.
Improvements rose can make to better his chances:
-keep upping his ts% through free throws
-either up ppg or apg
-anything over 55 wins or the 3 seed would improve his chances a ton...this is the biggest factor
here is the link to an image of the excel sheet stats of every MVP
http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/5562/statsmy.png
(includes average, standard deviation, and skewness of data. skewness refers to which side of the average the data "favors")
Wins:
61.1 with standard deviation of 5.25 and the data skewed higher
Seed:
1.42 with standard deviation of 1.03 and the data skewed MUCH lower
PER:
27.01 with standard deviation of 2.59 and the data skewed lower
PPG:
26.42 with standard deviation of 3.97 and the data skewed higher
APG:
5.86 with standard deviation of 3.03 and the data skewed higher
RPG:
9.00 with standard deviation of 3.32 and the data skewed lower
TS%
58.61% with standard deviation of 2.72% and the data skewed higher
Points + Assist + Rebounds
41.27 with standard deviation of 3.73 and the data skewed higher
Years in League at time of MVP
8.68 with standard deviation of 2.59 and the data skewed slightly lower
Also 71% of the MVPs led the league in a major statistical category.....not THAT strong of a trend at all though
those were the raw numbers. In terms of what makes an MVP, a VERY strong trend was seeding.
24 MVP's from a 1 seed
4 MVP's from a 2 seed
2 MVP's from a 3 seed
1 MVP from a 6 seed
What does this all have to do with rose? well see for yourself. blue marks are former MVPs while the red mark is rose.
for the most part, rose is near the bottom of the pack in all of the categories. his "gaudy" stats so far this season would make a weak MVP candidates numbers, but they would not stick out as being a bad or undeserving MVP....just pretty weak. Even as a 3 seed in the east, I could see rose having the record (as long as we dont drop below 55 wins) to win this year.
I do not think rose has the combination of stats and/or wins to make it. if the voters are crazy enough to give it to wade or lebron, rose doesnt have a prayer. If rose wins the MVP, he would literally rewrite MVP history by doing it this early in his career. no one has gotten MVP in only his 3rd year in the league....it would be totally unprecedented. also, as you guessed, rose would be the youngest MVP ever.
I think rose will improve his ppg and ts%. also, with our schedule, I could see if we dont have a lul getting 55 wins. if rose does these two i think hell have a real shot.
Improvements rose can make to better his chances:
-keep upping his ts% through free throws
-either up ppg or apg
-anything over 55 wins or the 3 seed would improve his chances a ton...this is the biggest factor
here is the link to an image of the excel sheet stats of every MVP
http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/5562/statsmy.png