What is Omer Asik's impact (Bigs Stat Comparsion)

[Rerisen]

Omer is a tough player to get a handle on because defense is hard to measure correctly, and production stats like PER don't tell us much about him at all. I think the best way to see his impact, is to look at the team's play with him on the floor.

Here's some various +/- stats comparing our bigs which might give us some good clues about how he is affecting the game vs our other bigs.

Raw On Court Defense (points allowed per 100 poss)

Taj: 92.5
Omer: 93.6
Bulls Team Avg: 98.3
Noah: 101.9
Boozer: 102.2

Raw on Court Offense (points scored per 100 poss)

Noah: 110.3
Boozer: 108.9
Gibson: 108.1
Bulls Team Avg: 107.4
Asik: 103.2

Raw on Court Point Differential (per 100 poss)

Gibson: +15.1
Asik: +9.1
Bulls team Avg: +9.1
Noah: +7.5
Boozer: +5.9

RAPM Defense (Regularized Advanced Plus/Minus - Accounts for strength of teammates/opponents)

Gibson: +3.7
Asik: +2.7
Noah: -0.1
Boozer: -1.9

RAPM Offense

Boozer: +1.4
Noah: +1.1
Gibson: +0.4
Asik: -1.9

RAPM Net

Gibson: +4.0
Noah: +1.0
Asik: +0.7
Boozer: -0.5

Some comments. The raw numbers show a lot of what we expect. The defense is smothering when Taj and Omer are out there (usually together). It falls off greatly with Boozer (over 8 points worse vs Off). Offensively, the offense falls greatly with Asik, surprisingly does better with Noah on the floor than Boozer.

Combine both sides and we see Taj clearly making the biggest difference, though note our 2nd unit is stronger than our first in general vs their opponents. Asik is right at our team average point differential, and with our two starters we actually outscore our opponents less than our team average, showing again, the importance of our bench to the team. Boozer is the lowest impact maker overall.

Now these raw numbers are not fair to every player since some play with stronger teammates or vs better or worse opponents. RAPM is a plus/minus form that takes into account these things along with some other complex math to get at more accurate values for these combinations. Again here, Taj comes out the big winner. He doesn't hurt the offense and is amazing on defense for a big net gain. Noah is second, surprisingly more a neutral on defense but helping the offense. Omer Asik is by far the worst for offense but makes up for it and overcomes his offensive liability with his great defense. Carlos Boozer helps the offense the most but also hurts the defense the most, and actually more than he helps the offense. RAPM feels that he is actually a slight negative player. And this is not new for Carlos. He's hovered around the break even line in these statistics for years.

I think these numbers also suggest, as most naturally believe, Noah is a better center than Asik, but perhaps the difference is not quite as large as some might think. Asik comes out quite a bit better on defense to make it pretty close. The caveat is Asik only played 15 minutes a game. Would his impact stay the same at a much higher number. And even if it could, or regardless of that, how valuable is he if he only plays 15 mpg. These are the questions the Bulls have to answer, but there should be little doubt Asik is a valuable big and positive contributor to the team.

Note, this isn't intended as a stat only thread. Anyone who wants to comment on Asik's impact in any other form of analysis, would be welcome.

[HINrichPolice]

Thanks for this, Re.

I also think that looking at pairs of bigs might be a worthwhile analysis. Perhaps Noah's defense is hurt while playing alongside Boozer. By the same token, maybe Noah's offense is helped by Boozer.

One thing that I don't understand is the board's unwillingness to play Asik/Noah together. People act like it's a bad idea when in fact, at the beginning of '10-11, the Jomer combo worked quite well.

[Sonny_D1]

I'd take a starting frontcourt of Deng, Gibson and Asik if we can flip Noah, Boozer and our pick for a legitimate 2 guard and a bench piece/6th man type player.

[thedarkstark]

I know these stats don't prove anything, but I said all of last year that Taj >>>> Boozer.

Taj has surpassed Boozer, he's just better at this point, plain and simple. Theres a reason Boozer was never on the floor at the end of close games.

Yes you lose SOME offense with Taj, but you gain a boatload of defense.

Boozer needs to be gone, and we need to start Taj. If we let Asik or Taj go because Jerry doesn't want to amnesty Boozer, I'm going to be pissed.

[Rerisen]

No teams want Boozer's deal. But what is a little disturbing to me is what our 2nd unit being better than our 1st (relative) says about our team. I think it says something both good and not so good.

During the year, or was it last year, we heard that the Bench Mob regularly beats the first unit in practice. This is all pretty funny to joke about, and its great that we have such a good bench unit, but its not so great that they beat our starters at all in practice, when our starters are the guys we rely on more in the post-season. Or should be able to.

Obviously because our 2nd unit is great at defense and our 1st unit can struggle on offense, its not that surprising if our Bench Mob can shut down the first units offense. But if they can that means that other great defenses can too.

The overall reality of this snippet (as well as the hard numbers that back up why its possible) suggest that perhaps some or someone in the 2nd unit should actually be starting, and that our first unit is not as strong as it needs to be. And this is why you get the incoherence of who to finish playoff games with, with Thibs being so quick and desperate to run in 2nd unit players to finish games.

Ideally, the Bulls really could (need to?) consolidate some of this spread out talent. We are seeing the consequences of not doing that with Omer's contract offers right now. And its going to be a repeat when Taj comes up next year.

Other teams are not dumb. They see that we have bench guys that could be starters or certainly bigger minute players elsewhere. They see our bench kill their bench. And while the Bulls may feel Omer only playing 15mpg is worth 5 million to us, it may be worth 7 or 8 for another team to let him play 25 minutes. This is the other danger of depth, you have players being underutilized minutes wise, below their capacity and these players become worth more to other teams that lack your depth and have bigger roles to offer.

The problem with the suggestion above (start Taj) is Carlos Boozer's 'star' status, his contract, and ego that come along with that. If you bring him off the bench, he could in theory, actually beast vs second units. But if he feels insulted, pouts, or complains, you might entirely lose him and have a real cancerous situation or totally net negative player on your hands most nights.

[boogydown]

Boozer is pissing everyone off. If he could step up, different story. Would not be mad at all if the Bulls found a way to move him to the Nets.

I'm okay with moving Noah but for who? Eric Gordon is about the only guy I can think of right now. There just aren't many options out there. The truth is, the guys we have now just need to step up. Unless we're getting a superstar back, there isn't much room to improve.

Had we kept Ben Gordon and not pursued Carlos Boozer, I think we'd be in great shape right now. Under the tax this season, balanced, 2nd option. The Bulls should avoid any free agent unless he is making less than $5.01M

[thedarkstark]

Amnesty Boozer, start Taj, sign Delonte West. Then S&T Asik + Rip for Kevin Martin, or trade Noah for Eric Gordon.

Our lineup going forward

Rose/Teague
Martin/West
Deng/Butler
Taj/Mirotic
Noah

Or

Rose/Teague
Gordon/West
Deng/Butler
Mirotic/Taj
Asik

The bottom line is that Boozer needs to go. Why are we even keeping him? He's not in our long term future, and being that Rose is injured and Jerry won't pay the tax, he's not in our short term future either so ****ing dumb the bum.

[Mech Engineer]

I hope we don't lose Asik and Korver because of the tax effect of Boozer's contract. I hope the Bulls sell on Asik that even if Houston promise him as a starter...that's highly doubtful as they are still looking at trades for a Center

I am not concerned about Taj in a worst case scenario of losing him or Asik. Taj is a great playoff performer and Boozer's insurance. But, atleast you can find PFs in the market like a Kris Humphries type in a trade/future FA(2/3 years).

It is really difficult to find a good Center and I just don't have the confidence in Noah's ability to stay healthy for the next 4/5 years. The worst thing to happen is have no Asik and Noah gets hurt at a crucial time when Rose is in MVP mode in the playoffs. I know we need wing players. But, I feel there is no hurry now because of Rose's injury. They can keep looking rather than settle for an average one like Lee for Asik. I would think since Miami is the main opponent for the Bulls, PG/Center are two positions where the Bulls need to overwhelm them with talent.

[alucryts]

I think that almost any moves you make this off season with any of our front court members will end up hurting the team unless it was for Dwight. Every single front court player fills a roll on this team and they do it well. Even Boozer played very well this past season.

I think a lot of people want to trade players just for the sake of trading players.

[molepharmer]

I'd be curious how these same stats look from the '10-11 season. Basically how did Omer and Kurt Thomas stack up against each other. I'm not doubting Omer is elite on the defensive end, but rather how a more balanced Thomas compares, since they played much the same role (except for the 30+ games when KT had to start).

[Indomitable]

Omer is a tough player to get a handle on because defense is hard to measure correctly, and production stats like PER don't tell us much about him at all. I think the best way to see his impact, is to look at the team's play with him on the floor.

Here's some various +/- stats comparing our bigs which might give us some good clues about how he is affecting the game vs our other bigs.

Raw On Court Defense (points allowed per 100 poss)

Taj: 92.5
Omer: 93.6
Bulls Team Avg: 98.3
Noah: 101.9
Boozer: 102.2

Raw on Court Offense (points scored per 100 poss)

Noah: 110.3
Boozer: 108.9
Gibson: 108.1
Bulls Team Avg: 107.4
Asik: 103.2

Raw on Court Point Differential (per 100 poss)

Gibson: +15.1
Asik: +9.1
Bulls team Avg: +9.1
Noah: +7.5
Boozer: +5.9

RAPM Defense (Regularized Advanced Plus/Minus - Accounts for strength of teammates/opponents)

Gibson: +3.7
Asik: +2.7
Noah: -0.1
Boozer: -1.9

RAPM Offense

Boozer: +1.4
Noah: +1.1
Gibson: +0.4
Asik: -1.9

RAPM Net

Gibson: +4.0
Noah: +1.0
Asik: +0.7
Boozer: -0.5

Some comments. The raw numbers show a lot of what we expect. The defense is smothering when Taj and Omer are out there (usually together). It falls off greatly with Boozer (over 8 points worse vs Off). Offensively, the offense falls greatly with Asik, surprisingly does better with Noah on the floor than Boozer.

Combine both sides and we see Taj clearly making the biggest difference, though note our 2nd unit is stronger than our first in general vs their opponents. Asik is right at our team average point differential, and with our two starters we actually outscore our opponents less than our team average, showing again, the importance of our bench to the team. Boozer is the lowest impact maker overall.

Now these raw numbers are not fair to every player since some play with stronger teammates or vs better or worse opponents. RAPM is a plus/minus form that takes into account these things along with some other complex math to get at more accurate values for these combinations. Again here, Taj comes out the big winner. He doesn't hurt the offense and is amazing on defense for a big net gain. Noah is second, surprisingly more a neutral on defense but helping the offense. Omer Asik is by far the worst for offense but makes up for it and overcomes his offensive liability with his great defense. Carlos Boozer helps the offense the most but also hurts the defense the most, and actually more than he helps the offense. RAPM feels that he is actually a slight negative player. And this is not new for Carlos. He's hovered around the break even line in these statistics for years.

I think these numbers also suggest, as most naturally believe, Noah is a better center than Asik, but perhaps the difference is not quite as large as some might think. Asik comes out quite a bit better on defense to make it pretty close. The caveat is Asik only played 15 minutes a game. Would his impact stay the same at a much higher number. And even if it could, or regardless of that, how valuable is he if he only plays 15 mpg. These are the questions the Bulls have to answer, but there should be little doubt Asik is a valuable big and positive contributor to the team.

Note, this isn't intended as a stat only thread. Anyone who wants to comment on Asik's impact in any other form of analysis, would be welcome.

Numbers proved Boozer is the 4th best big

[Ron Harper]

I'd take a starting frontcourt of Deng, Gibson and Asik if we can flip Noah, Boozer and our pick for a legitimate 2 guard and a bench piece/6th man type player.

It's funny because we all agree that Noah is better than Asik and Boozer is better than Taj, yet when the game is close we would all rather Taj and Asik in the game.

It's tough to wrap my head around. But at the end of the day I think seeing is believing. What Taj and Asik do, they will always be able to do. There is no real inconsistency to their game (save Taj's jumpshot).

It's becoming clear now that it's not a Bulls board overrating of Asik. He's a starter in this league.

I would feel a lot more comfortable with Taj and Asik if we had a dynamic wing player.

It's just so hard to put together, Bulls are a team on the cusp of being well rounded but there are some tough decisions to be made if they want to take the next step.

One thing for certain is that the Bulls cannot let Asik walk, and I doubt they will.

[U boj]

Let him go. More Noah+Gibson together, less Boozer and we'll be ok.

[Indomitable]

I'd take a starting frontcourt of Deng, Gibson and Asik if we can flip Noah, Boozer and our pick for a legitimate 2 guard and a bench piece/6th man type player.

It's funny because we all agree that Noah is better than Asik and Boozer is better than Taj, yet when the game is close we would all rather Taj and Asik in the game.

It's tough to wrap my head around. But at the end of the day I think seeing is believing. What Taj and Asik do, they will always be able to do. There is no real inconsistency to their game (save Taj's jumpshot).

It's becoming clear now that it's not a Bulls board overrating of Asik. He's a starter in this league.

I would feel a lot more comfortable with Taj and Asik if we had a dynamic wing player.

It's just so hard to put together, Bulls are a team on the cusp of being well rounded but there are some tough decisions to be made if they want to take the next step.

One thing for certain is that the Bulls cannot let Asik walk, and I doubt they will.

Actually prefer Taj and Noah

[Ron Harper]

Depends on the situation. Late in games when we need a stop, I definitely prefer Asik in there.

Noah isn't scoring the ball late in games and Asik is fantastic at setting screens and freeing guys up.

Thibs does this anyway most of the time. He'll then reinsert Noah in final possession type situations because Noah is such a smart basketball player.

But yeah, Taj and Asik all day for me in those Heat type games when the score is 82=80 with 3 minutes to go.

[Mech Engineer]

Depends on the situation. Late in games when we need a stop, I definitely prefer Asik in there.

Noah isn't scoring the ball late in games and Asik is fantastic at setting screens and freeing guys up.

Thibs does this anyway most of the time. He'll then reinsert Noah in final possession type situations because Noah is such a smart basketball player.

But yeah, Taj and Asik all day for me in those Heat type games when the score is 82=80 with 3 minutes to go.

The biggest issue for the Bulls is if the SG was anyone other than Korver, Brewer or Bogans and there is Rose, Deng, Taj and Asik in the situation you mentioned has never been really tested. I think Asik and Taj will have even bigger impact if you can imagine with a decent SG like dare I say a healthy Rip

[Ron Harper]

Depends on the situation. Late in games when we need a stop, I definitely prefer Asik in there.

Noah isn't scoring the ball late in games and Asik is fantastic at setting screens and freeing guys up.

Thibs does this anyway most of the time. He'll then reinsert Noah in final possession type situations because Noah is such a smart basketball player.

But yeah, Taj and Asik all day for me in those Heat type games when the score is 82=80 with 3 minutes to go.

The biggest issue for the Bulls is if the SG was anyone other than Korver, Brewer or Bogans and there is Rose, Deng, Taj and Asik in the situation you mentioned has never been really tested. I think Asik and Taj will have even bigger impact if you can imagine with a decent SG like dare I say a healthy Rip

Absolutely.

Having an aggressive wing player would allow us to take the next step with Asik and Taj getting a lot of time on the floor.

It just sucks because to get that guy you have to get rid of someone. Tough choices.

[Rerisen]

I'd be curious how these same stats look from the '10-11 season. Basically how did Omer and Kurt Thomas stack up against each other. I'm not doubting Omer is elite on the defensive end, but rather how a more balanced Thomas compares, since they played much the same role (except for the 30+ games when KT had to start).

Also we should keep in mind Omer was a rook. But he still comes out vastly superior to KT. The raw number is likely inflated due to the bench being a better defensive unit (of which Omer played more with). But even after that is accounted for (in RAPM) Omer remains solidly ahead on D.

2011

Raw On Court Defense (team points allowed per 100)

Omer: 93.9
Kurt: 101.0

RAPM Defense

Omer: +1.9
Kurt: +0.6

[johnnyvann840]

Wow, great numbers. Have to consider the fact that the bench guys are playing against mostly other bench guys. This thread should be about how valuable and what a stud Taj Gibson really is when it comes to impacting a game. WOW! Taj's numbers point diff and defense, even offensive impact are staggering! Keep Gibson... for sure.

[molepharmer]

I'd be curious how these same stats look from the '10-11 season. Basically how did Omer and Kurt Thomas stack up against each other. I'm not doubting Omer is elite on the defensive end, but rather how a more balanced Thomas compares, since they played much the same role (except for the 30+ games when KT had to start).

Also we should keep in mind Omer was a rook. But he still comes out vastly superior to KT. The raw number is likely inflated due to the bench being a better defensive unit (of which Omer played more with). But even after that is accounted for (in RAPM) Omer remains solidly ahead on D.

2011

Raw On Court Defense (team points allowed per 100)

Omer: 93.9
Kurt: 101.0

RAPM Defense

Omer: +1.9
Kurt: +0.6

Thanks.