Asik Discussion. Pg 50 Sheridan: Bulls will match

[ChicagoTRS]

Teams want to dump contracts for many reasons...the contract does not necessarily have to be terrible/bad...if a team is rebuilding or the roster is being blown up for whatever reason often teams are looking to dump high priced decent players to get under the cap to sign free agents.

A team like the Bulls with a nearly complete roster...who needs one difference making player...the options to add a significant player are very limited. What are the options?...the draft...which is generally not much of an option because good teams get late 1st round picks which are nearly never impact players. Free agency...not an option when you have no cap space. Trades...the only trades where you give up less talent than you receive are when you include expiring contracts or multiple draft picks.

I just do not see an Asik match as ever much of a mistake...worst case it is one season of bad paper.

When was the last time a team wants to dump a good $15+m contract to save money and sign free agents? I honestly cannot recall such an instance. Ever. A good $15+m contract is called a superstar. You have one of those, you don't dump it to rebuild or sign free agents. You have one of those, keep them until they are about to expire and then you try to re-sign them.

A high-priced decent player is called a bad contract. That's your Joe Johnson. A high-priced player who isn't decent is called a terrible contract. Do you think the Bulls will be looking to take on those types of bad/terrible contracts three years into the LT? I sure as heck don't and I certainly see any such attempt as a huge mistake.

#1 it does not have to be a superstar player w/15M contract for the player to make a positive impact on a team. You are using the Asik contract to fill in a different roster need that you have no other way to fill. I think there is a good chance that the Bulls get under the LT threshold after this season (amnesty Boozer).

Recent good players who were traded because they had bad paper or teams wanted to dump salaries: Joe Johnson, Stephen Jackson, Marcus Camby, Chris Paul, Gilbert Arenas, Deron Williams, Tyson Chandler...etc... It happens all of the time in the NBA where decent players are salary dumped...and will likely be more prevalent in the future because of the LT.

We are probably not looking to acquire a superstar...just give an expiring Asik contract in trade for a better player that is owed more money that fills a starting role on the Bulls.

[ChicagoTRS]

A big expiring also allows you to explore trades for superstar players with fair max contracts. Can put together a package like Asik, charlotte 1st rounder, future bulls first rounders, cheap young player for superstar. Need the big expiring to make salaries match.

[Bruteque]

because only one for one trades are possible

It doesn't really make a difference. The principle is the same.

You see, the mistake here is that so many apparently think large expiring have intrinsic positive value. The Boozer and the Asik contracts will both almost certainly have negative value in three years. Boozer's contract we no longer have a choice, Asik's we do.

If you trade Boozer or Asik's negative value contracts for contracts with even more negative value, then the other team will have to send us some positive value assets back to compensate. This is the scenario people usually use to misattribute intrinsic values to expirings.

It doesn't matter what size the good contract is. $15+m ones just happen to be the most extreme cases. You do not trade away good contracts into cap space to sign free agents. Good contracts are by definition above market value. You do not trade above market value pieces into cap space just to sign worse contracts at market value.

That would just be stupid and counting on that would obviously be pipedreaming/wishful thinking, not prudent planning.

I mean, you all keep on saying Joe Johnson got traded into expiring crap. Well yeah, a bad contract got traded into expiring crap straight up. That'd be the exact category of negative value "prize" what you all may be able to take on straight up for the negative value "large expiring" you matched, not some imaginary positive value contract(s) some imaginary team inexplicably wants to dump for cap space to sign worse contracts.

You want to get some positive value back instead of a straight-up expiring-for-bad-contract? Sure, if you are willing to take on terrible contracts worse than Joe Johnson's, then the other team will have to compensate you with some positive value assets.

There certainly are some terrible contracts out there if there are teams willing to take those on. Is the Bulls such a team? Well...

[ChicagoTRS]

You want to get some positive value back instead of a straight-up expiring-for-bad-contract? Sure, if you are willing to take on terrible contracts worse than Joe Johnson's, then the other team will have to compensate you with some positive value assets.

There certainly are some terrible contracts out there if there are teams willing to take those on. Is the Bulls such a team? Well...

So if it was three seasons from now...Bulls have D.Rose at point, L Deng at the 3, Mirotic or Gibson at 4, Noah at the 5...and they could move Asik and his contract for a player the caliber of Joe Johnson to play the 2...seems to me it would make the Bulls a lot better team with an all-star caliber 2 guard. Yes they would be taking on some big money with a Johnson type contract...but as long as they get a Johnson fringe all-star type player in return it would make the team a lot more of a contender.

How else would you fill that 2 guard spot? Not going to fill it in the draft (maybe Charlotte pick). Do not have the money under the cap to get it done via free agency...going to have give up something of value in a trade to get it done and teams value expiring contracts.

I just do not see retaining Asik as a big mistake even if it does not work out...it is one season of bad paper.

[Bruteque]

A big expiring also allows you to explore trades for superstar players with fair max contracts. Can put together a package like Asik, charlotte 1st rounder, future bulls first rounders, cheap young player for superstar. Need the big expiring to make salaries match.

A superstar on max is not a fair contract; a superstar on max is a good contract.

But let's dream for one second that a superstar can be had for Bobcat's pick and late 1sts (which is already a pipedreamy style long shot). Does Reinsdorf pay $15m amnesty money for an Asik expiring to get the deal done, or just use Boozer expiring? Do we want to opt in on a second negative value expirings in three years and pay $15m amnesty to get rid of one of them, or do we just use the one we already have? Hmm. Tough one for Reinsdorf.

[ChicagoLegend]

By that time, Deng will be off the books and Boozer could be amnestied/traded (as an expiring himself).

If we match this offer, we have essentially 31 million in expiring deals three years from now. THAT is a huge bargaining chip in this league. It should not be ignored and can turn into a very lofty prize.

Sigh. Once again, what is the value of large expirings? To trade for bad contracts nobody wants or terrible contracts everybody wants to get rid of. Does that at all sound like what the Bulls will be looking to take in return in three years? You think three years from now the Bulls will be looking to land the "very lofty prize" of $31m of bad/terrible contracts? F&%# no. They can barely afford good contracts by then with Rose/Noah/Taj on the books.

Let me attempt to pound this key point in here once again: Nobody has any reason to trade you good contracts for your expirings unless you are sending them additional truckloads of assets.

Seriously? That's y'all's plans? Flip the rotting corpses of Boozer/Asik contracts for "very lofty prize" of superstars?

If it equals Kevin Love then you do it!

[dice]

Haven't read the whole thread, but is anyone else really intrigued by how this board has spread around the votes?

It's interesting to me that out of the 4 choices, 1 is decidedly the least popular while the others are damn near even.

I think there's a reason for it, but I can't put my finger on it. Choices A and D are directly opposite of each other. I suppose B and C are also opposite of each other, but with way more votes going to "should not match but will". That's interesting to me because whoever voted for choice C is likely of the mindset of being really cost conscious, but they believe the Bulls will sort of break the trend and take on a not so cost conscious contract. If I were to have predicted before people started voting, I would have predicted C to get the least number of votes.

Choice B, the least popular, was chosen by voters likely saying that Asik is too important to give up, but the Bulls will make the financially conservative move. If I were to have predicted before people started voting, I would have thought that choice B would be popular amongst the the many posters who like to jump on every opportunity to say that the FO is "cheap". I guess I just expected a lot more choice B votes. Perhaps it being 1st or 2nd most popular.

B is the only truly pessimistic choice

[Bruteque]

By that time, Deng will be off the books and Boozer could be amnestied/traded (as an expiring himself).

If we match this offer, we have essentially 31 million in expiring deals three years from now. THAT is a huge bargaining chip in this league. It should not be ignored and can turn into a very lofty prize.

Sigh. Once again, what is the value of large expirings? To trade for bad contracts nobody wants or terrible contracts everybody wants to get rid of. Does that at all sound like what the Bulls will be looking to take in return in three years? You think three years from now the Bulls will be looking to land the "very lofty prize" of $31m of bad/terrible contracts? F&%# no. They can barely afford good contracts by then with Rose/Noah/Taj on the books.

Let me attempt to pound this key point in here once again: Nobody has any reason to trade you good contracts for your expirings unless you are sending them additional truckloads of assets.

Seriously? That's y'all's plans? Flip the rotting corpses of Boozer/Asik contracts for "very lofty prize" of superstars?

If it equals Kevin Love then you do it!

Why stop at Kevin Love? Dream big. Maybe the Heat will be looking to dump LeBron straight up for expirings.

[ChicagoLegend]

[

Why stop at Kevin Love? Dream big. Maybe the Heat will be looking to dump LeBron straight up for expirings.

Not likely Guts.

[Ralphb07]

Unless something weird changes from tomorrow on. This offseason is why people are in the don't keep Asik boat. There's been a lot of good guys we could of had this offseason so far and haven't attempted to get any, while Miami, NY, etc find ways to add guys and go in the tax. The Bulls are just not going to go in the tax. I don't think it can be any clearer. We'll see many more summers like this if we keep Asik and JR doesn't change his stance.

I'm hoping this rant makes me look stupid and we see Bulls and Lee agree to deal. But right now I don't see how people can feel confident Jerry will spend. With this in mind we must be smart about our money.

[BigUps]

Unless something weird changes from tomorrow on. This offseason is why people are in the don't keep Asik boat. There's been a lot of good guys we could of had this offseason so far and haven't attempted to get any, while Miami, NY, etc find ways to add guys and go in the tax. The Bulls are just not going to go in the tax. I don't think it can be any clearer. We'll see many more summers like this if we keep Asik and JR doesn't change his stance.

I'm hoping this rant makes me look stupid and we see Bulls and Lee agree to deal. But right now I don't see how people can feel confident Jerry will spend. With this in mind we must be smart about our money.

The only reason we resign Omer is because we're making basketball decisions and not financial decisions. At least, I hope that's the only reason. If not, well, we're in trouble and are going to have to hope Rose comes back not only equal to his former self, but better.

[1rage]

I gotta ask, do we have leverage with a rehabbing Rose? have we won the title yet with the current team?

We haven't been there, done that. How do you expect to attract the valuable guys like Ray Allen for significantly less?

[LoveDaBoo]

It's interesting to me that out of the 4 choices, 1 is decidedly the least popular while the others are damn near even.

I think there's a reason for it, but I can't put my finger on it. Choices A and D are directly opposite of each other. I suppose B and C are also opposite of each other, but with way more votes going to "should not match but will".

A and D are votes that think the front office will make the correct choice. They just differ on what that correct choice is.

B and C are votes that think the front office will make the incorrect choice. Again, they just differ on what the incorrect choice is. I think it's fair to say Paxson has a history of placing high value on his own players. So it's reasonable to think that is they were to make a mistake, it is more likely to be one that over-values our guy (vote C), rather than one that under-values our guy (vote B).

Agree. The high "C" vote is most interesting to me. No way to separate those who just don't think that much of Asik from those who have espoused the "tank" strategy.

Or those, like me, who don't think Asik's worth the money and also favor the tank. I virtually always oppose bad money. There's nothing I hate more than pulling up shampsports and seeing those big numbers handcuffing the team. But, especially in this case, it doesn't make sense to put down big money, because doing so not only doesn't help you win a championship, but also reduces the value of your draft pick next year. It's like a double-whammy.

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

Unless something weird changes from tomorrow on. This offseason is why people are in the don't keep Asik boat. There's been a lot of good guys we could of had this offseason so far and haven't attempted to get any, while Miami, NY, etc find ways to add guys and go in the tax. The Bulls are just not going to go in the tax. I don't think it can be any clearer. We'll see many more summers like this if we keep Asik and JR doesn't change his stance.

I'm hoping this rant makes me look stupid and we see Bulls and Lee agree to deal. But right now I don't see how people can feel confident Jerry will spend. With this in mind we must be smart about our money.

JR will spend.....but not for this upcoming season, IMHO.

I don't think that it can be any clearer, people. The Bulls FO is not planning a title run until 2013/2014.

[molepharmer]

Unless something weird changes from tomorrow on. This offseason is why people are in the don't keep Asik boat. There's been a lot of good guys we could of had this offseason so far and haven't attempted to get any, while Miami, NY, etc find ways to add guys and go in the tax. The Bulls are just not going to go in the tax. I don't think it can be any clearer. We'll see many more summers like this if we keep Asik and JR doesn't change his stance.

I'm hoping this rant makes me look stupid and we see Bulls and Lee agree to deal. But right now I don't see how people can feel confident Jerry will spend. With this in mind we must be smart about our money.

JR will spend.....but not for this upcoming season, IMHO.

I don't think that it can be any clearer, people. The Bulls FO is not planning a title run until 2013/2014.

I assume you mean because of Rose's injury the FO will wait until '13-14.

Not sure how '13-14 differs all that much roster-wise than what the Bulls could just as easily have this coming season.
- Bulls re-sign Asik so he'll be here for '13-14.
- Have Butler replace Brewer.
- Dump Watson.
- Sign Hinrich.
- Find a cheap Korver replacement, re-sign him cheaper for 2 year or sign and trade for CLee.
It's this last move which will show how serious the FO is about competing in '12-13 - which I think was kind of Ralph07's point; JR using the current expirings to take on salary.

Next summer.
- Re-sign Taj. Let Rip walk.

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

Unless something weird changes from tomorrow on. This offseason is why people are in the don't keep Asik boat. There's been a lot of good guys we could of had this offseason so far and haven't attempted to get any, while Miami, NY, etc find ways to add guys and go in the tax. The Bulls are just not going to go in the tax. I don't think it can be any clearer. We'll see many more summers like this if we keep Asik and JR doesn't change his stance.

I'm hoping this rant makes me look stupid and we see Bulls and Lee agree to deal. But right now I don't see how people can feel confident Jerry will spend. With this in mind we must be smart about our money.

JR will spend.....but not for this upcoming season, IMHO.

I don't think that it can be any clearer, people. The Bulls FO is not planning a title run until 2013/2014.

I assume you mean because of Rose's injury the FO will wait until '13-14.

Not sure how '13-14 differs all that much roster-wise than what the Bulls could just as easily have this coming season.
- Bulls re-sign Asik so he'll be here for '13-14.
- Have Butler replace Brewer.
- Dump Watson.
- Sign Hinrich.
- Find a cheap Korver replacement, re-sign him cheaper for 2 year or sign and trade for CLee.
It's this last move which will show how serious the FO is about competing in '12-13 - which I think was kind of Ralph07's point; JR using the current expirings to take on salary.

Next summer.
- Re-sign Taj. Let Rip walk.

I'm not really attempting to tear down Ralph's whole post, I'm only offering up a possible reason why the FO is not making any monumental moves....yet.

I simply believe that JR will spend if he knows we're on the cusp of winning a title. I don't feel this upcoming season is a title season in his mind. Of course, it's simple speculation & opinion on my part.

[Mech Engineer]

I think not spending too much like market value or more on players like Ray Allen, Billups makes a lot of sense. If they get a younger player who can project into the rotation 2 years from now, it is a little tough. The Bulls FO probably want most contracts to expire 2 years from now or 3 years from now.

I think it is just not simple as signing the next best FA for 2 years or 3 years. Obviously, if you are Lee or Billups, you want a longer contract with the max money you can get. But, the Bulls probably have a formula of the talent of the player age, position, impact in their rankings and give contracts out based on that.

So, I don't think it is about this year or next year. If for example, they think OJ Mayo is a top 7/8 player in their rotation in 2014-15, they will spend on him by whatever means(not matching Asik, going over LT etc..).

[Ron Harper]

Unless something weird changes from tomorrow on. This offseason is why people are in the don't keep Asik boat. There's been a lot of good guys we could of had this offseason so far and haven't attempted to get any, while Miami, NY, etc find ways to add guys and go in the tax. The Bulls are just not going to go in the tax. I don't think it can be any clearer. We'll see many more summers like this if we keep Asik and JR doesn't change his stance.

I'm hoping this rant makes me look stupid and we see Bulls and Lee agree to deal. But right now I don't see how people can feel confident Jerry will spend. With this in mind we must be smart about our money.

I honestly haven't seen many available guys better than Asik that we realistically could have signed.

But to me Asik will have a much greater impact than someone pedestrian like C Lee.

It's all how you look at it.

[Jordan45822]

http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/ ... ource-says

JA Adande says that he was told that the Bulls will match Asik's offer sheet

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

^^^^^^^^Bad decision by the Bulls.