Bellinelli v Korver Redux

[DuckIII]

marco is not as good a defender than korver. sorry

I'm convinced!

I dont think either are very good. But I don't see any justification for Korver being better than Belinelli. Korver has some of the worst lateral movement among any perimeter player in the NBA. What exactly are the defensive skills at which he excels over Marco?

[AAU Teammate]

Marco tries on defense, but a pick basically puts him completely out of the play. Korver did have heavier feet, but I remember him really working hard to get through the pick and was maybe 50/50 succeeding at that (total estimate purely off memory)

Other problems: Marco does not have a quick release. Korver could get it and get it up (at high accuracy). Marco also basically gets the ball and his first instinct is to hold it. Korver and Rip are dead set on shoot/pass/dribble the second they get it. This is the kind of thing that comes from playing on good teams and knowing you have to be a step ahead of the defense.

You get the sense with Marco that he'd rather let the defense get their wits about them if it lets him cogitate a bit longer. He doesn't seem to have shooting on rapid fire instinct...... but one has to like how he can put it on the floor. There's no question that's a huge perk over Korver

Korver is elite at something, runs with the 3pt all-time gods. In the playoffs you tend to play high quality defenses, so it shouldn't come as a shock that he doesnt seem to duplicate his regular season feasting in the postseason. Marco is more a well-rounded guard, and I think you'd similarly see that great defenses will just quite simply be better at taking things away from him as well come playoff time. Those are the realities of playing garden variety opponents each night (reg. season) vs. great opponents every night (playoffs).



Everyone assumed Cook was signed to replace Rip. What looks more likely -- they want to see Cook in practice for months on end, so as to consider him for a SG role next year when Marco leaves for more money.

[[d][R][o][s][e]]

i think it's also better to point out the teammates on both player. i dont follow so much on Atlanta on how Korver is being used right now. all i can remember that Korver in here would run off screens to get his shot. i also don't know his efficiency on his first 30 games as a bull. but i could remember Korver defending a fastbreak and it would certainly be auto And1. but sometimes i see it on Kirk this season.

and salary wise.. Korver got 150% more on Beli right? with Rose's injury (his salary this season doesn't fit as a back-up for Deng/Rip on our organization's perspective).

shooting efficiency wise, Korver owns Beli even on an eye test. who knows, next season Korver will be here to take the minimum.

[DuckIII]

Rose missed 41% of the season last year.

In that span we went 18-9, .666 winning percentage (this team is at .562). Ronnie Brewer was the primary starting SG in that time.

Also, even if I agreed that this is a reasonable piece of data to include in a Korver/Beli analysis, which I absolutely do not, the numbers get a lot closer if you look at the games in which Beli played 20+ minutes for the Rose-less Bulls. That winning percentage is .636. In other words, when Beli is used properly, this Bulls team without Rose, is so far remarkably similar to last year's Bulls team without Rose in the W-L department. And they didn't have two years to play together.

Bear in mind, my isolation of Beli to these 18, 20+ minute games is not random. Its not like when people would only cite Tyrus Thomas' higher minute games, because the only reason he had those higher minute games is because he was playing well in them. That distorted their meaning. Here, 12 of these 20 games result from him being made the starter due to injury. It had nothing to do with game to game performance. And these 12 games have the biggest influence on the data due to the heavier minutes he played in them (save the one 33 minute game he had as a backup).

[League Circles]

I always wanted Korver gone. He was one of the very few Bulls acquisitions over the last decade that I cringed a bit at the time of signing. He's a nice guy, plays hard, and is a great pure jumpshooter, but he's never going to be a "plus" rotation player on a great team IMO.

That said, even on title teams, not every rotation player is a "plus" rotation player due to practicalities of the salary cap, etc.

Like most player comparison, Marco and Korver are variously better for individual teams. For a team that has good defense and ball handling among the other 4 guys on the court, Korver is probably better. For a team that doesn't have great ball handling or dribble driving, Marco is better.

I couldn't believe it this summer when most posters wrote off Marco IMO simply because his salary was less than Marco's, ignoring that one salary was inked during a completely different CBA. To me, I ignore salary in player comparisons, and I figured from day one that Marco was at least even money to be better than Korver.
For this team, I definitely prefer Marco straight up, and that's ignoring his salary and age advantage over Korver.

[League Circles]

regarding defense, I think Marco is more likely to make a "good" defensive play, but also more likely to have a mental lapse. Korver was consistent by the end of his tenure on D, though still consistently bad because he's one of the very slowest footed perimeter players in the NBA. So while he's a great shooter, Korver was, for sure, without debate, among the very worst ball handlers and among the very slowest in the entire league at his positions. That's hard to overcome against a good team who is game planning to beat you in a 7 game series. Korver is more of a bum slayer IMO. The biggest difference between Boozer and Korver is that Boozer's ball skills are much rarer in a big man than Korver's shooting is in a perimter guy. Or rather, it's easier to get a guy nearly as good at shooting as Kyle (see Nate, Marco for cheap) than it is to get a big guy who understands timing, passing, and has that touch that Carlos has while still being a dominant rebounder. Most big guys with good ball skills are horrible rebounders it seems.

[DuckIII]

I always wanted Korver gone. He was one of the very few Bulls acquisitions over the last decade that I cringed a bit at the time of signing. He's a nice guy, plays hard, and is a great pure jumpshooter, but he's never going to be a "plus" rotation player on a great team IMO.

To the extent anyone would interpret my strong preference for Beli over Korver as something akin to this, let me note that I completely disagree.

I wish Korver was still on the Bulls. He and Asik are the only two legitimate losses, Korver less so. But still.

[League Circles]

I always wanted Korver gone. He was one of the very few Bulls acquisitions over the last decade that I cringed a bit at the time of signing. He's a nice guy, plays hard, and is a great pure jumpshooter, but he's never going to be a "plus" rotation player on a great team IMO.

To the extent anyone would interpret my strong preference for Beli over Korver as something akin to this, let me note that I completely disagree.

I wish Korver was still on the Bulls. He and Asik are the only two legitimate losses, Korver less so. But still.

If you strongly prefer Marco, why would you want Korver? Just as an option on the bench getting DNPs, or to take some of Jimmy, RIP, or Deng's minutes?

I actually consider Ronnie the most notable loss after Omer, because Ronnie was a legit ELITE defender, which Jimmy is not IMO. Putting Ronnie out there with Noah, Taj, Deng, and either Rose or Kirk gives you as good of a defensive unit as known to man.

[PowerBull]

Shouldnt this be a hinrich vs korver thread? Didnt they dump korver to get hinrich back?

I would have loved to keep korver while signing marco. You can never have too many shooters (and in our case we only have one anyways). Plus it would have been an amazing off/def mix with a wing rotation of
SG: Marco / Butler
SF: Deng / Korver

[PowerBull]

Shouldnt this be a hinrich vs korver thread? Didnt they dump korver to get hinrich back?

I would have loved to keep korver while signing marco. You can never have too many shooters (and in our case we only have one anyways). Plus it would have been an amazing off/def mix with a wing rotation of
SG: Marco / Butler
SF: Deng / Korver

[DuckIII]

If you strongly prefer Marco, why would you want Korver? Just as an option on the bench getting DNPs, or to take some of Jimmy, RIP, or Deng's minutes?

He would absolutely take up Rip's minutes (which should be in reserve behind Marco). Rip shouldn't be playing at all on this team, and that is even without us having Korver. And not only that, but then you'd have him to go along with say Marco, Deng and Rose, for sets in which the Bulls go all-out spread for 3 pt shooters.

There are a dozen ways to use him. Having one of the greatest three point shooters of all time is always a good thing.

[League Circles]

Shouldnt this be a hinrich vs korver thread? Didnt they dump korver to get hinrich back?

I would have loved to keep korver while signing marco. You can never have too many shooters (and in our case we only have one anyways). Plus it would have been an amazing off/def mix with a wing rotation of
SG: Marco / Butler
SF: Deng / Korver

Excellent point. To whatever extent the Bulls expect Kirk to play the SG during his deal, yes he was also brought in to replace Korver. The Bulls clearly wanted more well rounded perimeter guys, as you can soundly argue that ALL of RIP, Marco, Kirk, and Jimmy are more well rounded than Korver and Ronnie.

[DuckIII]

Shouldnt this be a hinrich vs korver thread?

No. We might as well make it a Beli vs. Asik thread. The roles aren't the same. Hinrich was signed to start for an injured Rose, possibly for an entire season, and then to back-up Rose. The only way it should be Hinrich vs. Korver is if you believe Hinrich was also brought in to be a small forward/shooting guard hybrid bench player like Korver, which he wasn't.

[Rerisen]

Marco's starting numbers aren't nearly enough to convince. If Rip leaves and he does that the whole rest of the year, then great, we have a strong argument. But he started in New Orleans and had the exact same numbers roughly that he does for us in totality. Caution would suggest we consider his ups and downs both as part of who he is. And indeed now back on the bench he has had some good games there too, so not just like he stinks off the bench.

Defensively, I think Marco might be better vs shorter quicker guards, as Kyle was more of a SF. But I've also seen Marco get lost on defense and beaten badly too. To his credit I think he is a bit better than Rip, but I don't see that anyway of a big difference maker vs Korver. Both are subpar and their job is just to funnel to the bigs.

Biggest thing with Beli, if his adventuresome forays into the paint (dribbling!) are to amount to a big advantage, he is 1, going to have to finish better, and 2, start finding more people on them beside looking for his own shot, which is often a bad or tough shot.

As it stands right now Marco getting to the rim 1 or 2 extra times a game produces less results than Korver shooting 3 more three pointers, which he averages more per 36. A Kyle three is a more efficient shot than a Beli at-rim attempt.

I do like the descriptive post Buffalo Bull wrote, and that's the type of stuff I was hoping for asking those who favor Marco to lay out. It's true that big picture numbers are not good at measuring very specific context situations, if those indeed come to be multiplied both in occurrence and importance, say in a playoff series, vs regular season.

Then it will come down to can Marco really save such situations, and if so, save them enough to offset that Kyle is probably helping us produce more in the first 45 minutes or so, before those situations come to the fore when Derrick starts getting the full assault treatment. Kyle of course helped us win many games before they ever reached this point, with his 4th quarter bombing.

The stronger argument for him then is that, not so much the current numbers are lying, but that Marco will still be able to get at rim vs say a Miami, while Kyle would not have been able to get the same 3pt attempts. In the ECF Kyle's attempts were slightly down but more than that, he simply missed the shots he did get. If people were to rewatch the series, I think they would see he missed some shots he usually makes, and that he was open. As we know, Kyle rarely ever shot tough contested shots, he was a careful selection shooter.

I think a mountain is being made out of a molehill from that series, but I hope for the sake of the Bulls, this stab at positive reasoning ends up being correct, however sketchy it looks now. But don't be surprised if Marco sees his own efficiency take a hit in the playoffs, as that is pretty common. At which point he would be around league average, while Kyle still maintains above that in the playoffs, despite his drop.

[League Circles]

He would absolutely take up Rip's minutes (which should be in reserve behind Marco). Rip shouldn't be playing at all on this team, and that is even without us having Korver. And not only that, but then you'd have him to go along with say Marco, Deng and Rose, for sets in which the Bulls go all-out spread for 3 pt shooters.

There are a dozen ways to use him. Having one of the greatest three point shooters of all time is always a good thing.

Fair enough. I can't argue that it's clear that RIP deserves minutes, as Marco and Jimmy can make cases for those minutes. To me, I want RIP getting minutes for these reason if no others:

1) He's WAY, WAY more proven, especially when we get to the playoffs, than Marco and Jimmy.
2) He's the only true, well rounded SG on the roster next year. I want to win a title next year (and this year), and feel Marco might be gone. To whatever extent Marco and Jimmy (and in your opinion, Korver) might be better in a true on court sense right now for us, to me it's so marginal that it's outweighed by the important of nuturing and reserving RIP's role for next year when he may be our next option. I love Jimmy, but think he's overrated by Bulls fans. His efficiency is not going to last IMO (and has been going down steadily IIRC), and despite phenomenal technique and effort, I don't feel he's an elite defender because of his alligator arms. Many times I see Jimmy play what I consider excellent defense, only to still be shot over successfully due to his small frame. Jimmy might be "6'7"", but his body is more like a 6'4" or 6'5" type body, even if he's really strong which is nice.

[DuckIII]

Marco's starting numbers aren't nearly enough to convince.

The fact is, there's a clear delineation between his production for the Bulls based on his role here. They are the most telling numbers we have, and using my 20+ minutes sample puts us at 18 games, well over half the season.

If the contrast weren't so stark, perhaps aggregating his numbers all season would make sense. But they are, so it doesn't.

Right now, today, as we are having this conversation, he's better than Korver. A month from now, maybe he won't be. But then what is the point of comparing anyone today?

[dice]

marco is not as good a defender than korver. sorry

I'm convinced!

I dont think either are very good. But I don't see any justification for Korver being better than Belinelli. Korver has some of the worst lateral movement among any perimeter player in the NBA. What exactly are the defensive skills at which he excels over Marco?

i don't think it's skill so much as effort. kyle's a bit bigger and thus is a somewhat better rebounder and shotblocker, yet does not suffer compared to the "more mobile" belinelli in the steals department. so how do opponents perform against them? opponent TS% (and FTA/48):

2013: korver SF 43.1% (2.5), beli SG 52.6% (4.5)
2012: korver W 45.0% (3.7), beli SG 46.5% (5.0)
2011: korver W 42.8% (5.0), beli SG 52.9% (4.0)

[Mech Engineer]

I wish Korver was still on the Bulls. He and Asik are the only two legitimate losses, Korver less so. But still.

This is my view and that's what the Pro Bench Mob 2 posters did not understand. Anyone who criticized the FO about Asik and a little about Korver was thought they are complaining about CJ, Brewer, JL3 etc..

That said, Korver at 5 Mil salary was a luxury for this team. The signing of Cook kind of indicates they were looking for that good 3 pt shooting wing player. Korver was probably let go not because Marco or Kirk came to the Bulls but more due to his salary.

[Rerisen]

marco is not as good a defender than korver. sorry

I'm convinced!

I dont think either are very good. But I don't see any justification for Korver being better than Belinelli. Korver has some of the worst lateral movement among any perimeter player in the NBA. What exactly are the defensive skills at which he excels over Marco?

i don't think it's skill so much as effort. kyle's a bit bigger and thus is a somewhat better rebounder and shotblocker, yet does not suffer compared to the "more mobile" belinelli in the steals department. so how do opponents perform against them? opponent TS% (and FTA/48):

2013: korver SF 43.1% (2.5), beli SG 52.6% (4.5)
2012: korver W 45.0% (3.7), beli SG 46.5% (5.0)
2011: korver W 42.8% (5.0), beli SG 52.9% (4.0)

Advanced plus minus is my favorite defensive stat to check my eye test opinion against, and Kyle rated out better there than Beli both last year, and this year on ATL. Defensive stats are kind of weak generally, but for the Bulls this one likes Noah best, then Gibson, then Deng, hard to argue. It has Belinelli better than Rip, and the very bad Nate, but still into the negatives.

More damming his offense is not correlating as a positive, something you'd expect to see from an impact offensive player, and that Kyle always provided. Then again, Marco's efficiency is just a bit above league average, he doesn't get many assists, it's not all that surprising. Was the same last year on NO.

As I'm sure someone will jump to point out, numbers aren't gospel, then again when those that are consistent with what you believe about a vast majority of players fail to back up what you believe about a specific one, I think it's important to be able to explain in some fashion or reason why they might be missing. I can't think of any easy answers for that with him. Maybe he's just an average player on both sides of the ball (or a tad below tbh), and Kyle while being a specialist, is easier for a coach to find matchup advantages to exploit. I have always believed this about specialists vs sort of weak two way players. They just give you more clear strengths to leverage.

[the ultimates]

marco is not as good a defender than korver. sorry

I'm convinced!

I dont think either are very good. But I don't see any justification for Korver being better than Belinelli. Korver has some of the worst lateral movement among any perimeter player in the NBA. What exactly are the defensive skills at which he excels over Marco?

i don't think it's skill so much as effort. kyle's a bit bigger and thus is a somewhat better rebounder and shotblocker, yet does not suffer compared to the "more mobile" belinelli in the steals department. so how do opponents perform against them? opponent TS% (and FTA/48):

2013: korver SF 43.1% (2.5), beli SG 52.6% (4.5)
2012: korver W 45.0% (3.7), beli SG 46.5% (5.0)
2011: korver W 42.8% (5.0), beli SG 52.9% (4.0)

Those numbers are good but misleading. Korver was always hid on defense with Deng and Brewer drawing the toughest assignments defensively.