A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
I may have talked more about 2014 free agency options than any other poster. I've continuously stated that we shouldn't take on any deals for non-great players that go beyond next year so as to keep the cap room free. Many have argued that it wouldn't help us much anyway because we'd have to drop Boozer (most likely via amnesty) and Deng (by letting him walk that summer). I reject that notion, as I think if FAs really wanted to com here we could likely leverage a S&T involving some of Boozer, Taj, Jimmy, etc.
But now I'm looking over the list of players again, and I'm really lowering my expectations for realistic upside of using cleared cap room that summer.
Barring trade and assuming Boozer amnesty (otherwise this is all moot), Bulls will have:
Noah
Rose
Taj
Butler
possibly Teague
possibly our 2013 first rounder
possibly our 2014 first rounder
for a total of about 42-45 million. Add about 2 mil for 4 minimum roster holds, and you're at about 44-47 mil before adding the 12th man with cap space, and then the 13 man could be added with the "room" mid level exception. The salary cap could possibly be anywhere between 60-70 mil at the extremes. So we'd probably be looking at 16-26 mil in pure cap space around this team:
Noah
Taj
Butler
-
Rose
The problem is that ignoring restricted free agents who we really can't afford to waste time with, here are all of the free agents I can possibly see us having interest in, who MIGHT have interest in us:
-Kobe - but will be old, may retire, and if not, may only want to play another year or two - but if he doesn't win a title in LA and wants to keep playing, I do think he'd strongly consider us
- Thabo Sefalosha - a good player on both ends, wouldn't be TOO old yet, and will be a UFA, and may want to return. He's nothing special though, but I'm sticking to the criteria in including him
-Danny Granger - will be 31 years old, but unlike guys I'm excluding Monte Ellis and Andre Iguodala, he can shoot the three. May be sick of playing in front of so many Bulls fans that he wants the real thing in Chicago. Would MOST likely end up being a bad contract
- Pau Gasol - will be old at 34, but 7 foot doesn't always get old that quick. He's being used poorly in LA, and will almost surely be gone by then. He's been rumored to want to come to Chicago in the past, and he would be a very good fit on court here playing PF and C. Also, he's made a massive ton of money and might not require too much money, like Duncan and KG on their current, old man deals
Sadly, the above is really it. As I said, going after RFAs with overpaid offer sheets is not an option. you waste time, alienate other FAs, and most likely still don't get the player. This is what you do when your'e not a good team but have cap space and nothing to lose. I'm ignoring these players:
-Wade - even if LBJ leaves for LA or Cleveland, Wade doesn't want to play in Chicago, will be older and likely quickly declining, and would almost certainly stay in Miami with Bosh and others to still frankly be a damn good team
-Iggy - too old, not a good enough outside shooter - would be a downgrade from Deng at that point IMO especially considering outside shooting and age
-Ellis - won't be young anymore, but still will be a dumb player, bad three point shooter, and small
-Ben Gordon - might be worthy of the list above, however, he'll be 31, still shorter, and has a negative history with the FO. Also, it looks like Charlotte is gonna DNP him so he declines his player option, which he just might do.
-Lebron - I wouldn't be shocked if he wanted to come to the Bulls, if Miami, Cleveland, and the Lakers weren't legit choices. With them being that, it's too much of a long shot
-Melo - would only leave to possibly win more, but I don't think he cares enough to leave being the king of NY
-Rudy Gay - can't imagine he'll opt out of 19+ mil to actually become a FA
-Dirk - too old
-Duncan - too old, player option
-Bosh - can't see him leaving Miami for any reason
-Amare - won't opt out, injury concerns, too old, etc
- ZBo - too old, not athletic enough by then
So what's the best case scenario that is still mildly realistic?
1. signing Kobe and Gasol to about 13 mil each or so - or maybe Kobe 15, Gasol 10. You make 1-2 title runs with that old crew and a "room" mid level guy. If you were able to do a S&T with Boozer, mayeb you can sign somebody like Thabo too. It'd be a nice team, but unlikely to come together
2. Resign Deng, sign Mirotic, and sign one of Gasol or Thabo - to me this is realistic. Deng can be given a no-trade clause and IMO would take notably less for it, say 10 mil a year. If we do have the 26 mil, the remaining 16 could go something like 5 Mirotic, 11 Gasol, or 5 Mirotic, 8 Thabo, 3 to someone else
So I think a realistic outcome of 2014 would be one of these:
Noah, Taj
Gasol, Taj
Deng, Mirotic
Butler, youngsters
Rose, youngsters
OR, more likely:
5: Noah, Taj
4: Mirotic, Taj
3: Deng, Butler
2: Thabo, Butler
1: Rose, Teague
These last two teams should, IMO, be the measuring stick by which any trades between now and then should be measured. It's not super inspiring. We look like barring trade, our best hopes for real talent are limited to players we draft such as Butler, the bobcats pick, and mirotic. We could wait for cap space in 2015 for a different class, but you don't want to waste a year IMO on a wish.
Therefore, we should try everything we can to trade Deng, the Bobcat pick, and change for a better wing player IF we can find one. Otherwise, gotta make sure we strike gold with draft picks. Butler and Mirotic ARE looking good though.
Consolidating the projection into the single most realistic scenario, I'd say with splitting the range of cap level possibilities, we'd have 21 mil of cap space, we resign Deng to a 10 mil a year deal (possibly needing to include a no-trade clause), 5 mil for Mirotic, and 6 for Thabo. Then we use the "room" mid level on a bench player, and roll like this:
5: Noah, Taj, 2013 pick
4: Mirotic, Taj
3: Deng, Butler
2: Thabo, room mid level player (Marco?), 2014 pick
1: Rose, Teague
Thoughts? Is this a fair projection, for better or worse, for what we should use for comparison purposes in judging any trades we might make between now and then? Sure, it COULD be a lot better than this, but most likely wouldn't. Even the best realistic scenario of Kobe would be short lived and likely leave us without Deng, and I don't know I'd trade one or two years of late 30s Kobe for 4-5 years of late 20s, early 30s Deng.
Now that I have this more clarified, I think we REALLY need to try to strike for a trade, taking on salary using RIP, Kirk, and Teague/picks, this summer.
But now I'm looking over the list of players again, and I'm really lowering my expectations for realistic upside of using cleared cap room that summer.
Barring trade and assuming Boozer amnesty (otherwise this is all moot), Bulls will have:
Noah
Rose
Taj
Butler
possibly Teague
possibly our 2013 first rounder
possibly our 2014 first rounder
for a total of about 42-45 million. Add about 2 mil for 4 minimum roster holds, and you're at about 44-47 mil before adding the 12th man with cap space, and then the 13 man could be added with the "room" mid level exception. The salary cap could possibly be anywhere between 60-70 mil at the extremes. So we'd probably be looking at 16-26 mil in pure cap space around this team:
Noah
Taj
Butler
-
Rose
The problem is that ignoring restricted free agents who we really can't afford to waste time with, here are all of the free agents I can possibly see us having interest in, who MIGHT have interest in us:
-Kobe - but will be old, may retire, and if not, may only want to play another year or two - but if he doesn't win a title in LA and wants to keep playing, I do think he'd strongly consider us
- Thabo Sefalosha - a good player on both ends, wouldn't be TOO old yet, and will be a UFA, and may want to return. He's nothing special though, but I'm sticking to the criteria in including him
-Danny Granger - will be 31 years old, but unlike guys I'm excluding Monte Ellis and Andre Iguodala, he can shoot the three. May be sick of playing in front of so many Bulls fans that he wants the real thing in Chicago. Would MOST likely end up being a bad contract
- Pau Gasol - will be old at 34, but 7 foot doesn't always get old that quick. He's being used poorly in LA, and will almost surely be gone by then. He's been rumored to want to come to Chicago in the past, and he would be a very good fit on court here playing PF and C. Also, he's made a massive ton of money and might not require too much money, like Duncan and KG on their current, old man deals
Sadly, the above is really it. As I said, going after RFAs with overpaid offer sheets is not an option. you waste time, alienate other FAs, and most likely still don't get the player. This is what you do when your'e not a good team but have cap space and nothing to lose. I'm ignoring these players:
-Wade - even if LBJ leaves for LA or Cleveland, Wade doesn't want to play in Chicago, will be older and likely quickly declining, and would almost certainly stay in Miami with Bosh and others to still frankly be a damn good team
-Iggy - too old, not a good enough outside shooter - would be a downgrade from Deng at that point IMO especially considering outside shooting and age
-Ellis - won't be young anymore, but still will be a dumb player, bad three point shooter, and small
-Ben Gordon - might be worthy of the list above, however, he'll be 31, still shorter, and has a negative history with the FO. Also, it looks like Charlotte is gonna DNP him so he declines his player option, which he just might do.
-Lebron - I wouldn't be shocked if he wanted to come to the Bulls, if Miami, Cleveland, and the Lakers weren't legit choices. With them being that, it's too much of a long shot
-Melo - would only leave to possibly win more, but I don't think he cares enough to leave being the king of NY
-Rudy Gay - can't imagine he'll opt out of 19+ mil to actually become a FA
-Dirk - too old
-Duncan - too old, player option
-Bosh - can't see him leaving Miami for any reason
-Amare - won't opt out, injury concerns, too old, etc
- ZBo - too old, not athletic enough by then
So what's the best case scenario that is still mildly realistic?
1. signing Kobe and Gasol to about 13 mil each or so - or maybe Kobe 15, Gasol 10. You make 1-2 title runs with that old crew and a "room" mid level guy. If you were able to do a S&T with Boozer, mayeb you can sign somebody like Thabo too. It'd be a nice team, but unlikely to come together
2. Resign Deng, sign Mirotic, and sign one of Gasol or Thabo - to me this is realistic. Deng can be given a no-trade clause and IMO would take notably less for it, say 10 mil a year. If we do have the 26 mil, the remaining 16 could go something like 5 Mirotic, 11 Gasol, or 5 Mirotic, 8 Thabo, 3 to someone else
So I think a realistic outcome of 2014 would be one of these:
Noah, Taj
Gasol, Taj
Deng, Mirotic
Butler, youngsters
Rose, youngsters
OR, more likely:
5: Noah, Taj
4: Mirotic, Taj
3: Deng, Butler
2: Thabo, Butler
1: Rose, Teague
These last two teams should, IMO, be the measuring stick by which any trades between now and then should be measured. It's not super inspiring. We look like barring trade, our best hopes for real talent are limited to players we draft such as Butler, the bobcats pick, and mirotic. We could wait for cap space in 2015 for a different class, but you don't want to waste a year IMO on a wish.
Therefore, we should try everything we can to trade Deng, the Bobcat pick, and change for a better wing player IF we can find one. Otherwise, gotta make sure we strike gold with draft picks. Butler and Mirotic ARE looking good though.
Consolidating the projection into the single most realistic scenario, I'd say with splitting the range of cap level possibilities, we'd have 21 mil of cap space, we resign Deng to a 10 mil a year deal (possibly needing to include a no-trade clause), 5 mil for Mirotic, and 6 for Thabo. Then we use the "room" mid level on a bench player, and roll like this:
5: Noah, Taj, 2013 pick
4: Mirotic, Taj
3: Deng, Butler
2: Thabo, room mid level player (Marco?), 2014 pick
1: Rose, Teague
Thoughts? Is this a fair projection, for better or worse, for what we should use for comparison purposes in judging any trades we might make between now and then? Sure, it COULD be a lot better than this, but most likely wouldn't. Even the best realistic scenario of Kobe would be short lived and likely leave us without Deng, and I don't know I'd trade one or two years of late 30s Kobe for 4-5 years of late 20s, early 30s Deng.
Now that I have this more clarified, I think we REALLY need to try to strike for a trade, taking on salary using RIP, Kirk, and Teague/picks, this summer.
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
Very nice synopsis. But to improve the team, we need a dynamic two-guard, and there is a dire shortage of those. I think our best chance at that is via the draft. Kobe is not a realistic option. Keep the bobcat pick and see if we can fill this need via the draft. Mirotic will take over for the amnestied Boozer, and we should be able to try out a stretch PF with Rose to see the impact. Taj and Noah will be at their prime, and Deng is about as good as we can do at SF.
Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
- The Kane
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
So pretty much, we're screwed?
"This game has always been, and will always be about buckets."
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
I still see Z-Bo being effective. He'd be a marked upgrade over Boozer. He has that old man game, that can win you plenty of games, plus he knows all the tricks in the book.
If there's anyone out there, I'd go for Z-Bo. Reality wise, and team wise.
If there's anyone out there, I'd go for Z-Bo. Reality wise, and team wise.
Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
Gar Paxdorf wrote:assuming Boozer amnesty (otherwise this is all moot),
Got to sidetrack a bit here connected to the news of the day. Its very possible the Reggie Rose stuff, and all this debacle, was related to Boozer's amnesty in a way.
Someone said Rose's camp failed, since we saw no great moves at the deadline, but what if the whole push was more about making sure the Bulls didn't dump Boozer via trade, thus wrecking any chance to amnesty him and rebalance the team that way with actual cap space freed up?
From that viewpoint, that 'best option' is still available and Carlos was not traded for an almost equally bad deal like Bargs, even though there might have been deals on the table for us to do that.
Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
Rerisen wrote:Gar Paxdorf wrote:assuming Boozer amnesty (otherwise this is all moot),
Got to sidetrack a bit here connected to the news of the day. Its very possible the Reggie Rose stuff, and all this debacle, was related to Boozer's amnesty in a way.
Someone said Rose's camp failed, since we saw no great moves at the deadline, but what if the whole push was more about making sure the Bulls didn't dump Boozer via trade, thus wrecking any chance to amnesty him and rebalance the team that way with actual cap space freed up?
From that viewpoint, that 'best option' is still available and Carlos was not traded for an almost equally bad deal like Bargs, even though there might have been deals on the table for us to do that.
Didn't KC say that deal was dead long before those comments?
johnnyvann840 wrote:So much for the "Gauntlet". Thibs stared down the "Gauntlet" and said...
"F U Gauntlet. I'm playing a 7 man hand and takin your ranch, bitch".
Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
LBJ to Chicago is a slight possibility still
We also have a shot in trading for Kevin Love...Plus the Bulls may move up the draft and pick their SG of the future.
We also have a shot in trading for Kevin Love...Plus the Bulls may move up the draft and pick their SG of the future.
Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
Gar Paxdorf wrote:Now that I have this more clarified, I think we REALLY need to try to strike for a trade, taking on salary using RIP, Kirk, and Teague/picks, this summer.
I'm glad you have come around on 2014 being much uglier up close vs being somewhat wishfully hopeful when far away in a vague sense.
None of these options are very appealing. Someone liek Gasol, already in steep decline, would be the next Boozer contract.
The Bulls realistic avenues are either wait for Mirotic to be the guy, and hopefully not need too many years to get there, or the Charlotte pick, to not only end up a great one slot wise, but actually be picked into a great player. And again, one who can be ready by year two. It's all very iffy and relies on the next big time contender team not being around Derrick till he is about 28.
Or, you can use those assets before then, give them to a team that is clearly on a longer build track, a team that does not have a Derrick Rose superstar ticking away his peak years, and hope to get an established impact player with those assets much sooner.
Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
Rerisen wrote:Gar Paxdorf wrote:assuming Boozer amnesty (otherwise this is all moot),
Got to sidetrack a bit here connected to the news of the day. Its very possible the Reggie Rose stuff, and all this debacle, was related to Boozer's amnesty in a way.
Someone said Rose's camp failed, since we saw no great moves at the deadline, but what if the whole push was more about making sure the Bulls didn't dump Boozer via trade, thus wrecking any chance to amnesty him and rebalance the team that way with actual cap space freed up?
From that viewpoint, that 'best option' is still available and Carlos was not traded for an almost equally bad deal like Bargs, even though there might have been deals on the table for us to do that.
What about Humphries? He expires in 2014, and BK was shopping him and a pick hard this deadline. They didn't get any takers, so I'm guessing they might be interested in sending him and a pick for Boozer this summer or next year at the deadline. Would be a step back for us, but not a huge one since Taj would eat up a lot of extra minutes. And the extra pick could be helpful if we keep getting Butler/Taj level players with those picks.
Then in 2014 we might be looking at:
Rose
Butler
Taj
Noah
Teague
Mirotic
2013 pick
2014 pick
Nets pick
A few of those assets could be packaged along with Deng (in a S&T) or Taj in a trade. Or we could just re-sign Deng and then try to consolidate later.
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
I think the best way for "2014" to come to play is by trade. The next two year a non pg star player becomes available, Bulls need to jump on it ASAP whether it be Love, Aldridge, or whom ever. I think that is the only real way to improve this team. That or find a great player late in the draft like the Spurs did with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli.
Free agency has never been good for the Bulls.
Free agency has never been good for the Bulls.
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
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SchruteFarms670 wrote:Didn't KC say that deal was dead long before those comments?
He said it probably wouldn't happen, but then again, we don't know what sweetener Toronto might have taken to do it, if the Bulls got desperate enough. You also had other names like Gordon and Humphries out there that deals might have been worked around if we wanted to unload him bad enough.
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I happen to think that it will be very difficult to find that second star. Mirotic has a chance to pan out, so why trade him before he has a chance to show us what he can do? Draft might bring a surprise, particularly with the Bobcats pick. Hoping for Love to end up here is grasping at straws, at best. Keep the core intact, add via the draft and let's hope to find that additional SG shot creater via the draft.
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Re: A realistic look at 2014 FA and options
There are two important things the Bulls have to consider:
1. Don't pay for past performances only. Someone like Boozer now and Kobe/Gasol/Z-Bo all will be paid for past performances. And, they are nowhere near the age of the core guys
2. It was "ok" to get Boozer at that age in 2010 because Deng, Noah, Rose were all younger and the Bulls could afford to have one older player(or in prime). Now, Deng, Noah are both older and will be more prone to injuries/old age decline in play. They cannot add guys who are 29/30 etc.. Unless you are MJ, LeBron or KG type, you don't typically age well or age well enough to be a 2nd option type on contending teams. To add to that, this new guy will be coming to a new team/getting used to the culture/team and players at that age.
1. Don't pay for past performances only. Someone like Boozer now and Kobe/Gasol/Z-Bo all will be paid for past performances. And, they are nowhere near the age of the core guys
2. It was "ok" to get Boozer at that age in 2010 because Deng, Noah, Rose were all younger and the Bulls could afford to have one older player(or in prime). Now, Deng, Noah are both older and will be more prone to injuries/old age decline in play. They cannot add guys who are 29/30 etc.. Unless you are MJ, LeBron or KG type, you don't typically age well or age well enough to be a 2nd option type on contending teams. To add to that, this new guy will be coming to a new team/getting used to the culture/team and players at that age.
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screwdriver wrote:I happen to think that it will be very difficult to find that second star. Mirotic has a chance to pan out, so why trade him before he has a chance to show us what he can do? Draft might bring a surprise, particularly with the Bobcats pick. Hoping for Love to end up here is grasping at straws, at best. Keep the core intact, add via the draft and let's hope to find that additional SG shot creater via the draft.
Ben McLemore!
Trade for the Bobcats pick this year for the return of their future pick and the Bulls pick this year.
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When i look at these names, i think Ben Wallace signing 2.0.
The 2014 class is bleak, therefore id rather try and land a disgruntled star like a Love than holding out for an aging superstar from yesteryear.
The 2014 class is bleak, therefore id rather try and land a disgruntled star like a Love than holding out for an aging superstar from yesteryear.
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BullsFTW wrote:screwdriver wrote:I happen to think that it will be very difficult to find that second star. Mirotic has a chance to pan out, so why trade him before he has a chance to show us what he can do? Draft might bring a surprise, particularly with the Bobcats pick. Hoping for Love to end up here is grasping at straws, at best. Keep the core intact, add via the draft and let's hope to find that additional SG shot creater via the draft.
Ben McLemore!
Trade for the Bobcats pick this year for the return of their future pick and the Bulls pick this year.
If there is the right player available, and teams are willing to trade their lotto picks, then sure. However, this does not happen very often. Bobcats are not giving up their pick to get a future pick back. Unrealistic.
More likely than not, we need a diamond in the rough. My personal favorite is MCW (but I am biased as a Syracuse fan). He's got the right package, and may just slip outside the lottery. Trading up for him, and grooming him for a couple of years is much more likely than Ben McLemore.
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The most important thing about 2014 is that the books will be HEAVILY free compared to now. No matter what, at least we have options regardless. With how we are now with Boozer and Deng's contracts, we are literally choked.
[x] Fire Thibs
[x] Fire Kirk
[x] Fire Noah
[x] Fire GarPax
[x] Fire Kirk
[x] Fire Noah
[x] Fire GarPax
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Exactly the reason why I wanted the Bulls to re-sign Asik. Even if you don't want to trade Noah, you at least have the opportunity to think about trading him for a legitimate wing scorer, because Asik gives you 75-80% of what Noah does.
Now the Bulls simply don't have many options to bring in another high impact player unless they take on massive salary a la Joe Johnson trade.
Now the Bulls simply don't have many options to bring in another high impact player unless they take on massive salary a la Joe Johnson trade.
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KingCuban wrote:When i look at these names, i think Ben Wallace signing 2.0.
The 2014 class is bleak, therefore id rather try and land a disgruntled star like a Love than holding out for an aging superstar from yesteryear.
I agree.
I think the free agents that we can attract are the cerebral, and heady players.
If we have learned anything, we have learned Divas do not like chicago, they like Cali, NY, and Florida.
Personalities like Durant, Love, the Gasols, ZBO, Duncan, Dirk, etc..
These are the personality types that should find the Bulls organization attractive.
Nobody who wants to promote their brand is going to want to come be in the shadow of Rose in his hometown.
We need beta personalities, intraverts, cerebrals, basketball first guys.
We can also hope for ring chasers who want out of the west, I would assume they would rather play for us than Indiana. The only other place they could go is NY, but that place is a circus.
We need to be the spurs of the East, and with Jimmy, the cats pick, and mirotic, and hopefully more moves like Marco and Nate, we can get there. I think we are one deal away.
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Love better be the play.