A realistic look at 2014 FA and options

[RedBulls23]

But the fact is most every title team has atleast 2 top 20 player's on their team (Some have two top 10 players). 2011 Mavs and 2004 Pistons being the exception. And even then that Pistons team had 5 top ten players at their position at the time. That would be very expensive to do in today's NBA where even boderline all-stars are getting 12-14 million a year.

[nitetrain8603]

Another way to look at this is by player ranking. Who are the top 20 players by ESPN?
1. Lebron
2. Durant
3. Howard
4. Paul - No
5. Rose - No
6. Kobe
7. Love
8. Wade
9. Westbrook - No
10. Deron - No
11. Dirk
12. Rondo - No
13. Bynum
14. Griffin
15. Gasol
16. Parker - No
17. Carmello
18. Bosh
19. Nash - No
20. Aldridge

Just taking out the PG's, that's a short list. When you take out the really old people and the guys who aren't moving like Griffin or Carmello, its even shorter. Unfortunately, when you boil down the list it ends up being the same things we have been discussing.
Howard, Love, Aldridge.

OK, so those are the established guys. What about the guys who are in a bid situation who might take off in Chicago? Evan Turner, Tyreke Evans, etc. Any others? Easier to get but higher risk.

Edit add at Danchee's suggestion: Demarcus Cousins.

I really don't think we need another top 20 player. If the team is willing to pay (and I do think they would be), we just need the formula from the last couple years, with a Jamal Crawford type scorer instead of Rip Hamilton.

Though of course, adding a Kevin Love or a Dwight Howard might make things easier.

I disagree. The only way you don't need another top 20 player, and let's be honest, you really need two top 10-15 players, is if you load up your team with two way players who do a little of everything with at least two superb scorers. Basically, Rose, a bunch of Luol Deng types up and down the roster, and maybe a Kevin Love to go in there.

In my honest opinion, I am not waiting around for Love. I'd so something like:

Chi
Out: Boozer, Deng, Future 1st and 2 2nd round picks
In: DeMarcus Cousins, Marcus Thornton, Jason Thompson, and John Salmons

Sac
Out: Cousins, Thornton, Thompson & Salmons
In: Boozer, Deng, Future 1st and 2 2nd round picks

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=anlen7p

Then you're left with:

Rose - 16.5
Noah - 11.3
Salmons - 8.1
Thornton - 7.6
Thompson - 5.3
Hinrich - 4
Gibson - 8(Poison Pill has average of current salary and new salary at around 5)
Butler - 1.1
Teague - 850K

I'd then spin off one of Taj or Thompson as well as Salmons(if possible) and try to sign OJ Mayo to a 4 year deal.

[DaeDae]

When i look at these names, i think Ben Wallace signing 2.0.

The 2014 class is bleak, therefore id rather try and land a disgruntled star like a Love than holding out for an aging superstar from yesteryear.

Its EGO, KLOVE, OR BUST. We need to acquire one of them. Until we do, this plan is too convoluted to actually pan out. Waiting another 4 years for Mirotic to make himself into what we need is a sure fire way for there to be a ROSE decision in 2017.

[MrSparkle]

Pretty much agree with other posters. It's a longshot to get a disgruntled star via a trade. The free agent options are terrible- and if history has shown anything, it's that the bulls are great at drafting, decent with trades, and TERRIBLE at signing free agents.

I think they should always try to stockpile draft picks. Maybe package Deng to get into the lottery?

GarPax may attempt to do this again.

I actually see this as most likely scenario. If a SG they like is around the 7-12th spot, that coupled with a TPE would give Chicago better options. I would sign guys to 1yr deals across the board: Korver, M. Barnes, backup C, Pietrus, d. Stevenson, back Ronnie... Go for bench depth, and develop the rookie and Jimmy to max.

I kind of like what Atlanta did. Lost Joe and Marvin, but didn't really get any worse as they got a lot of temp. shooters and system players at the wings.

[burlydee]

If we are talking about acquiring a guy in the next year, the list of top 25 to 30 players who could be available (or guys who can make a jump if in the right situation) boils down to -

Love
Aldridge
Howard
Bynum
Cousins
Eric Gordon
Tyreke Evans
Al Jefferson (I'd throw in Favors and Kanter too, but I think Utah will keep them)

In my mind, the Bulls have to get one of these guys in the next year. These are the guys they should target and pursue. Obviously you would give up more to get say Howard or Love than Evans, but the principle is the same. No more nice signings. lets look for someone who could potentially put us over the top.

[BullsFTW]

Pretty much agree with other posters. It's a longshot to get a disgruntled star via a trade. The free agent options are terrible- and if history has shown anything, it's that the bulls are great at drafting, decent with trades, and TERRIBLE at signing free agents.

I think they should always try to stockpile draft picks. Maybe package Deng to get into the lottery?

GarPax may attempt to do this again.

I actually see this as most likely scenario.If a SG they like is around the 7-12th spot, that coupled with a TPE would give Chicago better options. I would sign guys to 1yr deals across the board: Korver, M. Barnes, backup C, Pietrus, d. Stevenson, back Ronnie... Go for bench depth, and develop the rookie and Jimmy to max.

I kind of like what Atlanta did. Lost Joe and Marvin, but didn't really get any worse as they got a lot of temp. shooters and system players at the wings.

Shoot for the stars and get in the Top 3

[MrSparkle]

With a $14m TPE? Deng doesn't net that unless this draft really, really sucks.

[blumeany]

Wow. This outlook isn't good. Depending on free agency sounds futile. I think the best move is going to be getting Mirotic here ASAP, amnestying Boozer, and trading Deng for a lottery pick. Most of the free agents listed are either over the hill or just mediocre. I would even consider trading the Bobcats pick for a more recent lottery pick. The Bulls need to get better sooner rather than later. Otherwise, you're talking basketball hell until beyond 2016, when that Bobcats pick and Mirotic would be blossoming.

[blumeany]

Also, Wade will retire in Miami and Lebron will be in one of three places: Miami, Cleveland, or L.A.

[PistolP]

There are two problems with a potential 2014 cap space plan. 1) Unless we land Lebron or maybe Melo, there is no one on the market that significantly upgrades us for the future…and let’s remember that the 2014 max salary for these guys will be at least $20m. 2) Playing below the cap is hard if you are aiming for an immediate title…most contenders are well over the cap as it takes years to build up the proper depth through exceptions.

I think the most realistic option to build a complete team around Rose will be via trade, but it will take patience. My suggestions (and I realize it’s an expensive one for next year) would be to trade for Gasol this summer. I think that would open up several options:

1) A full summer to recover from injuries rejuvenates him for next year and he becomes a solid post option (2012 Olympic Gasol) next to Rose that makes us better contenders next year
2) Gasol is just ok, but we have ~$40m worth of expirings next deadline. We package him and/or Deng with some other assets and make a major play for Love/Aldridge, etc.
3) He is just ok, but worth resigning in 2014. We have his bird rights so we can resign him and Deng to smaller deals, stay above the cap, bring over Mirotic with the MLE, and have Taj as a potential trade piece to land a SG.

[BullsFTW]

Wow. This outlook isn't good. Depending on free agency sounds futile. I think the best move is going to be getting Mirotic here ASAP, amnestying Boozer, and trading Deng for a lottery pick. Most of the free agents listed are either over the hill or just mediocre. I would even consider trading the Bobcats pick for a more recent lottery pick. The Bulls need to get better sooner rather than later. Otherwise, you're talking basketball hell until beyond 2016, when that Bobcats pick and Mirotic would be blossoming.

Deng + CHA Pick to move up the Top 3 of the draft

[Ralphb07]

The Bulls plan is 2014, they will not do anything to ruin that. In 2014 we'll have Rose, Noah, Nikola and max money. When looking at 2014, you also need to look for players that could be pushing their way out that expire in 2015. If the Bulls have money to absorb such player it makes a deal easier.

In this time the Bulls need to see if Jimmy is starting material at SF. We need to make a decision if Deng is part of the plan or not. Deng is a 2 time all star and probably will make it next year. He's not going to take a pay cut coming off 3 consecutive all start appearances. Next year is going to be a season where I see minor moves and more Bulls evaluating things.

[BullsFTW]

The Bulls plan is 2014, they will not do anything to ruin that. In 2014 we'll have Rose, Noah, Nikola and max money. When looking at 2014, you also need to look for players that could be pushing their way out that expire in 2015. If the Bulls have money to absorb such player it makes a deal easier.

In this time the Bulls need to see if Jimmy is starting material at SF. We need to make a decision if Deng is part of the plan or not. Deng is a 2 time all star and probably will make it next year. He's not going to take a pay cut coming off 3 consecutive all start appearances. Next year is going to be a season where I see minor moves and more Bulls evaluating things.

You brought up Charlotte wanting their pick back. Do you think the Bulls and Bobcats will explore that idea during this year's draft? Weren't we close to acquiring the #2 pick last year too?

[Ralphb07]

The Bulls plan is 2014, they will not do anything to ruin that. In 2014 we'll have Rose, Noah, Nikola and max money. When looking at 2014, you also need to look for players that could be pushing their way out that expire in 2015. If the Bulls have money to absorb such player it makes a deal easier.

In this time the Bulls need to see if Jimmy is starting material at SF. We need to make a decision if Deng is part of the plan or not. Deng is a 2 time all star and probably will make it next year. He's not going to take a pay cut coming off 3 consecutive all start appearances. Next year is going to be a season where I see minor moves and more Bulls evaluating things.

You brought up Charlotte wanting their pick back. Do you think the Bulls and Bobcats will explore that idea during this year's draft? Weren't we close to acquiring the #2 pick last year too?

I don't see the Bulls giving up that pick. They see it being a really good one and adding a player to the core of Noah, Nikola and Rose. Yes they view Nikola as a core player. They are extremely high on him and should be.

[nitetrain8603]

The Bulls plan is 2014, they will not do anything to ruin that. In 2014 we'll have Rose, Noah, Nikola and max money. When looking at 2014, you also need to look for players that could be pushing their way out that expire in 2015. If the Bulls have money to absorb such player it makes a deal easier.

In this time the Bulls need to see if Jimmy is starting material at SF. We need to make a decision if Deng is part of the plan or not. Deng is a 2 time all star and probably will make it next year. He's not going to take a pay cut coming off 3 consecutive all start appearances. Next year is going to be a season where I see minor moves and more Bulls evaluating things.

It's stupidity for the plan to be 2014 unless you have it in the bag that you can not only get 1, but rather 2 stud players in that offseason, especially considering Paxson's track record of making aggressive moves and the inability to attract even one player thru free agency in the past 13 years. If Paxson and the Bulls are waiting around for then, then Bulls fans are going to be in deep trouble with their star player.

[Payt10]

Our best option to change the trajectory of our team is to go all in on a trade. The free agent class isn't very appealing unless you can convince Lebron James to leave Miami, which isn't going to happen. And even if he does leave, he'll end up back in Cleveland again.

There may be other potential disgruntled Superstar caliber players that we can trade for from now until then, but as of this moment, it seems like the two best options are either Demarcus Cousins or Kevin Love.

[BullsFTW]

The Bulls plan is 2014, they will not do anything to ruin that. In 2014 we'll have Rose, Noah, Nikola and max money. When looking at 2014, you also need to look for players that could be pushing their way out that expire in 2015. If the Bulls have money to absorb such player it makes a deal easier.

In this time the Bulls need to see if Jimmy is starting material at SF. We need to make a decision if Deng is part of the plan or not. Deng is a 2 time all star and probably will make it next year. He's not going to take a pay cut coming off 3 consecutive all start appearances. Next year is going to be a season where I see minor moves and more Bulls evaluating things.

You brought up Charlotte wanting their pick back. Do you think the Bulls and Bobcats will explore that idea during this year's draft? Weren't we close to acquiring the #2 pick last year too?

I don't see the Bulls giving up that pick. They see it being a really good one and adding a player to the core of Noah, Nikola and Rose. Yes they view Nikola as a core player. They are extremely high on him and should be.

So GarPax wouldn't trade the CHA pick for a chance to draft McLemore?

I'm high on Nikola as well. ManRam our draft expert believes he is a better prospect than Zeller, so that's encouraging.

[nitetrain8603]

Our best option to change the trajectory of our team is to go all in on a trade. The free agent class isn't very appealing unless you can convince Lebron James to leave Miami, which isn't going to happen. And even if he does leave, he'll end up back in Cleveland again.

There may be other potential disgruntled Superstar caliber players that we can trade for from now until then, but as of this moment, it seems like the two best options are either Demarcus Cousins or Kevin Love.

I think the Bulls at minimum should look for Cousins this offseason.

[Ralphb07]

The Bulls plan is 2014, they will not do anything to ruin that. In 2014 we'll have Rose, Noah, Nikola and max money. When looking at 2014, you also need to look for players that could be pushing their way out that expire in 2015. If the Bulls have money to absorb such player it makes a deal easier.

In this time the Bulls need to see if Jimmy is starting material at SF. We need to make a decision if Deng is part of the plan or not. Deng is a 2 time all star and probably will make it next year. He's not going to take a pay cut coming off 3 consecutive all start appearances. Next year is going to be a season where I see minor moves and more Bulls evaluating things.

It's stupidity for the plan to be 2014 unless you have it in the bag that you can not only get 1, but rather 2 stud players in that offseason, especially considering Paxson's track record of making aggressive moves and the inability to attract even one player thru free agency in the past 13 years. If Paxson and the Bulls are waiting around for then, then Bulls fans are going to be in deep trouble with their star player.

How is it stupid?

Nikola is coming that summer and they feel Nikola, Noah and Rose are the new core. I think they want to be able to start over when Nikola comes and build a team that fits the three above I mention.

[Mech Engineer]

The one thing the Bulls need is scoring. The Bulls have to separate from getting a dream top 10/15 two-way player and top 15 scorer. The Bulls can do well with a top 10/15 scorer who is bad on defense like a prime Jamal Crawford or even a prime Rip Hamilton types. That also means, the margin of error is reduced in the line-ups. You cannot have a Boozer around with that kind of guy or the other four cannot be bad on defense. Having two bad defensive match-ups is a killer.

The Bulls have to identify that guy from the 2009/2010 draft and try to get one of them in a trade. I am not sure if there is that guy but somebody like OJ Mayo(I know he is not a top 10/15 scorer) type. That's more of a realistic possibility rather than aiming for Kevin Love types where the probability of things happening goes down to 15-20%