A realistic look at 2014 FA and options

[qianlong]

Gllad you turned the corner on the 2014 plan. As rerisen said in the Reggie thread, we need cheap young talent to compete with miami. Only the draft provides that. We need trades more than cap space. Trading boozer for a smaller contract or multiple contracts would have made it easier. We could be getting worse this year, not a certainty imo, but in the long run it would pay off.

Moreover if we want to compete in two years or three we need to get those rookies this year or next. Otherwise we delay our chance wasting derrick prime.

I said in numerous trheads that i wanted the FO to make a bold move last summer like Deng for a high pick, or signing asik and moving Noah. I wanted to trade booz last summer and this deadline because he is our main dead weight. This core is not good enough by itself, and we don't have the depth to compensate for it anymore.

[BullsFTW]

I happen to think that it will be very difficult to find that second star. Mirotic has a chance to pan out, so why trade him before he has a chance to show us what he can do? Draft might bring a surprise, particularly with the Bobcats pick. Hoping for Love to end up here is grasping at straws, at best. Keep the core intact, add via the draft and let's hope to find that additional SG shot creater via the draft.

Ben McLemore!

Trade for the Bobcats pick this year for the return of their future pick and the Bulls pick this year.

If there is the right player available, and teams are willing to trade their lotto picks, then sure. However, this does not happen very often. Bobcats are not giving up their pick to get a future pick back. Unrealistic.

More likely than not, we need a diamond in the rough. My personal favorite is MCW (but I am biased as a Syracuse fan). He's got the right package, and may just slip outside the lottery. Trading up for him, and grooming him for a couple of years is much more likely than Ben McLemore.

The Bobcats view this year's draft as being weak. I'd be willing to part ways with Deng and return CHA's pick back to them in exchange for the #1 overall pick, which I would use to select Ben McLemore.

CHI Gets: #1 Pick (Gets their SG of the future)
CHA Gets: Eric Gordon and Return of their Pick from CHI (Improved back-court)
NO Gets: Luol Deng and POR 2013 Pick (Fills the SF position)

Bulls Future Line-Up
F Butler
F Mirotic
C Noah
G McLemore
G Rose

[kingkirk]

The only McLemore we will be getting is an iTunes gift voucher to download Thrift Shop.

Charlotte will not be trading their 1st overall pick this season, for their pick and Luol Deng, who plays the same position as MKG.

Cmon now.

[DanChee33]

Exactly the reason why I wanted the Bulls to re-sign Asik. Even if you don't want to trade Noah, you at least have the opportunity to think about trading him for a legitimate wing scorer, because Asik gives you 75-80% of what Noah does.

Me too.
It was well known, that Noah is a better player, but not by the marginthat puts this team over the top. He could used like a trade asset - the only really valuable this team has - while still got one of the better C's with excellence defense in Asik.

What could put this team over the top is a player who could get by a trade using Noah...

But but Asik is a bench player, and...
Now we all can se.

[whodey]

Our best option to make a trade may be this offseason PRIOR to the draft. We will have Deng's expiring deal. Hamilton will be worth $5 million but can be bought out for $1 million. We'll have a draft pick around 18-24 in the first round. We have Teague only going into his 2nd year. We still have the Charlotte pick and the rights to Mirotic.

This may have to come down to a 2 trade sequence to get where we want to get. Taj and other trade chips may be our way to get Love after his BYC restrictions expire. So it's going to take till at least next years trade deadline or even the 2014 offseason to get a long term team.

Reggie Rose needs to shutup and realize this before we turn into Cleveland with Lebron and make desperation moves.

[MissileMike]

Pretty much agree with other posters. It's a longshot to get a disgruntled star via a trade. The free agent options are terrible- and if history has shown anything, it's that the bulls are great at drafting, decent with trades, and TERRIBLE at signing free agents.

I think they should always try to stockpile draft picks. Maybe package Deng to get into the lottery?

[jmajew]

The best option for the Bulls to find some way to shed 34 million off their cap for next season. And still gain a few assets in return.

Right now the Bulls are projected at 77 mil for next year according to Shamsports. If we can reduce that by 34 million that would put as at 44 million. With about 14-16 mil in Salary cap space. Then the Bulls have all the flexibility in the world

The questions is how do we get to that point. I think there is 1 scenario that may make sense, then again it may not. Obviously we would just let Rip walk. Then I see a team with 29 million to 31 million in cap space next season. This team also has an all-star PG, two Rookies who look promising, a second year player who is improving, and a C who is injury prone but was having a great year. This team is the Cavaliers. If Cleveland wanted to make a quantum leap next year and wanted to maintain flexibility to sign a big name FA in 2014 would they be willing to trade their 1st rd pick in 2013 for Deng and Boozer?

2013 Roster for Cavs would be:
Irving, Waiters, Deng, Boozer, Varejao, Thompson, Zeller, Gee, and CJ Miles.

If Waiters, Zeller, and Thompson take anotehr step forward next year that could be a top 2 team in the East. They would also maintain flexibility to sign LeBron in the summer of 2014. If they strike out in the summer of 2014 to sign LeBron they could hopefully re-sign Deng at a lower value contract and then in 2015 have the expiring contracts of Boozer and Varejao off the books which would allow them to make another run at a FA.

This Bulls would basically be giving away a current All-star and a former all-star for a 1st rd pick in a mediocore draft and cap space this offseason. This would allow the Bulls to make another run in FA this year, a top 5 pick hopefully, and we will still have all of our assets.

Is this a better risk than trading away all future assets for an upgrade? Will this allow us a more sustainable team? I think so, but is it possible? Probably not, but it coudl be. Is that was Management and the Rose family are thinking? Or is it too big of a risk? Basically 2014 is too far away to wait; this is just another way to take a clean the slate and take a risk.

[BullsFTW]

The only McLemore we will be getting is an iTunes gift voucher to download Thrift Shop.

Charlotte will not be trading their 1st overall pick this season, for their pick and Luol Deng, who plays the same position as MKG.

Cmon now.

Haha

But they're not getting Deng, they're getting Eric Gordon. Yea I know trading the #1 pick is a long-shot. But if the Bobcats get the #2 pick, then it's a possibility. My conspiracy theory is that Orlando will get the #1 Pick and select Zeller or Noel.

Trade Idea 1,00,000
Bulls -> McLemore
Bobcats -> Eric Gordon, Kris Humphries, and Return of their Pick
Nets -> Ben Gordon
Hornets -> Deng and Future Pick from Chicago

[coldfish]

OK, first off, I think the Bulls should pay attention to the risks of signing Thabo. By risks, I mean the potential that I would have an aneurysm so bad that I would split atoms, initiating a chain reaction nuclear blast large enough to take out a major metropolitan area, killing hundreds of thousands and plunging the globe into an economic depression.

.......

Jokes aside, let's look at how teams get stars. Draft, free agency and trade.
- Draft. This is exceedingly hard as many Bulls fans will attest. It took almost a decade of trips to the lottery to get Derrick Rose. Tanking isn't going to work and trading for picks is going to need a ton of picks to get a top level player, on average.
- Free agency. GarPaxDorf covered this. There isn't zero chance, but it doesn't look good. Beyond that, you have to time it. Having max capspace in a year where there is no one worth it is a disaster. See Wallace, Ben.
- That leaves trade.

In most seasons, an all star is traded. This year was the exception but even then, Harden was traded before the season started. I can't think of a year where a top 25 player or so didn't change hands. The teams that get those guys spend years preparing for it by making sure they have expiring contracts and young assets. Think Boston and then Houston.

The Bulls aren't going to acquire a young player like Al Jefferson to trade. They just have very little way to do it. However, just this year, they could trade after the draft:
- Charlotte pick
- Rights to Mirotic
- Rights to 2013 pick (I highly encourage a euro stash)
- 2014 pick
- 2016 pick
- Teauge
That's still not as great as some here might believe but just the mass of picks and prospects has value.

Now, let's look at the expiring side. You need about $15M of expiring deals to get something done. Chicago is in fantastic shape in that regard. This summer they have $23M of expiring contracts. The following year, they have the $17M expiring deal of Boozer. Chicago is in good shape as long as they are willing to take on the salary.

IMO, a trade is the way to go and the door opens this summer. It doesn't close until, well, a long time from now. The key is not to waste money or assets on mediocre guys which is what the Bulls have done in the past. No MLE (or lux tax equivalent) this summer. That means that reggie rose and all of the other "panac!" people aren't going to be happy.

The key here is to find good players on bad teams. Who is that list? That's the problem. There aren't many Garnett's right now. Here is what I got:
- Lamarcus Aldridge
- Kevin Love
- Greg Monroe
Who else?

[BullsFTW]

Pretty much agree with other posters. It's a longshot to get a disgruntled star via a trade. The free agent options are terrible- and if history has shown anything, it's that the bulls are great at drafting, decent with trades, and TERRIBLE at signing free agents.

I think they should always try to stockpile draft picks. Maybe package Deng to get into the lottery?

GarPax may attempt to do this again.

[BullsFTW]

http://youtu.be/98jfmb9e5sA

[DanChee33]

The key here is to find good players on bad teams. Who is that list? That's the problem. There aren't many Garnett's right now. Here is what I got:
- Lamarcus Aldridge
- Kevin Love
- Greg Monroe
Who else?

Maybe Cousins?
Don't laugh,serious question. Are you sure he's such a dumbass he won't fit with the Bulls?
I dunno, but I would consider him as an option.

[Mech Engineer]

The only McLemore we will be getting is an iTunes gift voucher to download Thrift Shop.

Charlotte will not be trading their 1st overall pick this season, for their pick and Luol Deng, who plays the same position as MKG.

Cmon now.

This is ridiculous. I agree with you KC. Depending on picks and thinking somehow other franchises will gift you picks is wonderland stuff.
Plus, the Bulls are not going that route. Draft picks are pretty much useless for the Bulls to be a second option. Even a pick like Rose(once in a decade guy) took 3 years to make an impact. Assuming a return to normal guy like a Love type of pick...he will take 4/5 years to make an impact as a second option. It is one thing to play the Jimmy Butler role or Taj Gibson role. But to be a second option guy on a ECF/Finals team, it will take 4/5 years minimum for a star draft pick. And, to get that guy, the Bulls have to lose other assets. Considering all that, it is pointless to get high picks for the Bulls unless they are gifted like the Charlotte pick.

[coldfish]

Another way to look at this is by player ranking. Who are the top 20 players by ESPN?
1. Lebron
2. Durant
3. Howard
4. Paul - No
5. Rose - No
6. Kobe
7. Love
8. Wade
9. Westbrook - No
10. Deron - No
11. Dirk
12. Rondo - No
13. Bynum
14. Griffin
15. Gasol
16. Parker - No
17. Carmello
18. Bosh
19. Nash - No
20. Aldridge

Just taking out the PG's, that's a short list. When you take out the really old people and the guys who aren't moving like Griffin or Carmello, its even shorter. Unfortunately, when you boil down the list it ends up being the same things we have been discussing.
Howard, Love, Aldridge.

OK, so those are the established guys. What about the guys who are in a bid situation who might take off in Chicago? Evan Turner, Tyreke Evans, etc. Any others? Easier to get but higher risk.

Edit add at Danchee's suggestion: Demarcus Cousins.

[Saphir]

The key here is to find good players on bad teams. Who is that list? That's the problem. There aren't many Garnett's right now. Here is what I got:
- Lamarcus Aldridge
- Kevin Love
- Greg Monroe
Who else?

Only issue I see is that while the TWolves/Blazers/Pistons are indeed bad, they also have that dreaded P word "potential" floating around them. The Bulls definitely have the assets to extract those pieces (In addition to maybe DeMarcus Cousins if you want to go that route), its just a matter of how willing are those three teams to part with their young studs. They each likely feel like they could make a playoff run next year, so it won't be easy to get them to trade.

[BullsFTW]

The only McLemore we will be getting is an iTunes gift voucher to download Thrift Shop.

Charlotte will not be trading their 1st overall pick this season, for their pick and Luol Deng, who plays the same position as MKG.

Cmon now.

This is ridiculous. I agree with you KC. Depending on picks and thinking somehow other franchises will gift you picks is wonderland stuff.
Plus, the Bulls are not going that route. Draft picks are pretty much useless for the Bulls to be a second option. Even a pick like Rose(once in a decade guy) took 3 years to make an impact. Assuming a return to normal guy like a Love type of pick...he will take 4/5 years to make an impact as a second option. It is one thing to play the Jimmy Butler role or Taj Gibson role. But to be a second option guy on a ECF/Finals team, it will take 4/5 years minimum for a star draft pick. And, to get that guy, the Bulls have to lose other assets. Considering all that, it is pointless to get high picks for the Bulls unless they are gifted like the Charlotte pick.

By the time McLemore (if we acquire him) develops as the number 2 option, Rose will be entering the prime of his career. A core of Rose/McLemore/Mirotic/Noah has a lot of potential, especially with Thibs as the coach.

Assets aren't given for free. You lose some to get some. If the Bobcats is willing to trade their pick this year and it's in the Top 3, in exchange for their pick back from the TT trade, then I'd do that without any hesitation.

[PMONSTER]

Would you guys rather have Deng or Jefferson + Barnes from GSW

[coldfish]

Would you guys rather have Deng or Jefferson + Barnes from GSW

I haven't watched every play of Barnes, but he has looked pretty awful. At the end of their careers, I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy Butler doesn't end up being the better player let alone Deng.

Don't laugh. Barnes has a 10.9 PER and when you watch him, there really anything he does well for the NBA.

As I was saying this summer, you can always point out studs taken in the draft but they are the exception. Most players end up being disappointments at best. Barnes is a classic case of that.

[aaqubed]

Another way to look at this is by player ranking. Who are the top 20 players by ESPN?
1. Lebron
2. Durant
3. Howard
4. Paul - No
5. Rose - No
6. Kobe
7. Love
8. Wade
9. Westbrook - No
10. Deron - No
11. Dirk
12. Rondo - No
13. Bynum
14. Griffin
15. Gasol
16. Parker - No
17. Carmello
18. Bosh
19. Nash - No
20. Aldridge

Just taking out the PG's, that's a short list. When you take out the really old people and the guys who aren't moving like Griffin or Carmello, its even shorter. Unfortunately, when you boil down the list it ends up being the same things we have been discussing.
Howard, Love, Aldridge.

OK, so those are the established guys. What about the guys who are in a bid situation who might take off in Chicago? Evan Turner, Tyreke Evans, etc. Any others? Easier to get but higher risk.

Edit add at Danchee's suggestion: Demarcus Cousins.

I really don't think we need another top 20 player. If the team is willing to pay (and I do think they would be), we just need the formula from the last couple years, with a Jamal Crawford type scorer instead of Rip Hamilton.

Though of course, adding a Kevin Love or a Dwight Howard might make things easier.

[conker1]

Dwight Howard in Chicago ? I think he would just whine all the time cause of Thibs