Sacramento Pick Tracking Thread

TimRobbins · Post #821 » by **TimRobbins** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 8:24 am

dougthonus wrote:I'd put the odds at closer to 50/50. It doesn't strike me as that hard to get to #11. They need about 36 wins in one of the next two seasons. I agree there's nothing about the Kings right now that screams "success is coming", but I don't think it'd take so much for them to surprise us once.

Until Cousins was hurt and the owner fired the coach, they were likely to accomplish the task this season. I don't think Cousins is a guy I'd build around, but he's a guy I think could lead a team to 36 wins once in three tries. Looks like he'll likely be 0-1 after this season though.

I'm not sure about the 50-50 odds. Kings will probably finish the season with around 29-31 wins. Now, you want them to get no less than 36 and no more than 45 (because that would put them in the playoffs and the 19th-20th picks which don't have that much value). There are 7-8 teams in that range, so naively, I'd say about a 25% chance of getting there. So, the odds of not getting the pick are 75% in each season and 56% combined for the two season.

So yeah, it seems like your 50-50 guess is a good guess.

Jkam31 · Post #822 » by **Jkam31** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 11:45 am

Vivek torpedoed our season and a lottery pick for you guys.

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Nate3carp · Post #823 » by **Nate3carp** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 1:10 pm

RIPskaterdude wrote:I know the feeling. I would have actually preferred to lose the pick to you guys this year. The Kings can't trade the upcoming or future picks until this one has cashed in.

I'm sure we could swing a deal to give you back the pick!

TheJordanRule · Post #824 » by **TheJordanRule** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 4:05 pm

dougthonus wrote:
DuckIII wrote:I don't know what to tell you guys. In my view this pick was always fools gold. The Kings suck, and nothing about their roster at the time of the trade or today suggests to me that this pick has a reasonable likelihood of becoming unprotected before it becomes a second rounder.

The Kings have drafted badly and chose the wrong guy to make their franchise player. Odds are that during the "potential first pick" stage, the Kings blow it up yet again.

Pau is what we got out the Deng trade, and likely nothing else.

I'd put the odds at closer to 50/50. It doesn't strike me as that hard to get to #11. They need about 36 wins in one of the next two seasons. I agree there's nothing about the Kings right now that screams "success is coming", but I don't think it'd take so much for them to surprise us once.

Until Cousins was hurt and the owner fired the coach, they were likely to accomplish the task this season. I don't think Cousins is a guy I'd build around, but he's a guy I think could lead a team to 36 wins once in three tries. Looks like he'll likely be 0-1 after this season though.

I disagree with both of you. I'd put the odds at 75 / 25 that we get the pick. They just hired George Karl, they would have already done it this year if not for injuries, and they have great young kids who are only going to get better next year and the year after.

Kings2013 · Post #825 » by **Kings2013** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 9:12 pm

Jkam31 wrote:Vivek torpedoed our season and a lottery pick for you guys.

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How do you know what Vivek is responsible for? I believe the FO initiated the coaching change

ADDinChicago · Post #826 » by **ADDinChicago** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 9:25 pm

Kings2013 wrote:
Jkam31 wrote:Vivek torpedoed our season and a lottery pick for you guys.

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How do you know what Vivek is responsible for? I believe the FO initiated the coaching change

Isn't Vivek pretty hands on and the one who decided Malone was to be canned?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-doomed ... 01188.html

Kings2013 · Post #827 » by **Kings2013** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 11:26 pm

ADDinChicago wrote:
Kings2013 wrote:
Jkam31 wrote:Vivek torpedoed our season and a lottery pick for you guys.

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How do you know what Vivek is responsible for? I believe the FO initiated the coaching change

Isn't Vivek pretty hands on and the one who decided Malone was to be canned?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-doomed ... 01188.html

when the firing of Malone took place Pete took responsibility and Vivek stated he didn't play a leading role (or they were both trying to protect Vivek?) Pete defended the firing on public radio. The head coach now just happens to be Pete (GM) and The assistant GM's guy who they worked with in Denver, while Vivek hired Malone.

ADDinChicago · Post #828 » by **ADDinChicago** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 11:33 pm

It sounds eerily similar to how Gar Forman speaks here when John Paxson makes a move. It's the saying the right things to protect he who actually made the move.

Vivek reminds me a lot of the guy who owns Memphis now. However, it also sounds like Sacto has "too many cooks in the kitchen" when it comes to making moves. You've got the owner, GM and now Chris Mullin.

TimRobbins · Post #829 » by **TimRobbins** » Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:03 am

20 games left. They need to get 14-15 out out of the 20. This could be theoretically over in 10 days.

Jkam31 · Post #830 » by **Jkam31** » Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:03 am

ADDinChicago wrote:It sounds eerily similar to how Gar Forman speaks here when John Paxson makes a move. It's the saying the right things to protect he who actually made the move.

Vivek reminds me a lot of the guy who owns Memphis now. However, it also sounds like Sacto has "too many cooks in the kitchen" when it comes to making moves. You've got the owner, GM and now Chris Mullin.

Unfortunately for us all are bad cooks and Mullin is the lead cook who is the worst of them all.

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johnnyvann840 · Post #831 » by **johnnyvann840** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 5:09 am

TimRobbins wrote:20 games left. They need to get 14-15 out out of the 20. This could be theoretically over in 10 days.

I think you mean this could be officially and mathematically over in 10 days. It's been delusional for weeks now to think we were getting the pick this year. Just a hypothetical and theoretical idea. Never really had much of a chance if you did the real math and probabilities. Been too many teams to pass since early Feb regardless of how few games they were back. The odds of them doing a 180 and ALL 5 of teams ahead of them all foundering at the same time have been slim and none for weeks now.

TimRobbins · Post #832 » by **TimRobbins** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:52 am

johnnyvann840 wrote:
TimRobbins wrote:20 games left. They need to get 14-15 out out of the 20. This could be theoretically over in 10 days.

I think you mean this could be officially and mathematically over in 10 days. It's been delusional for weeks now to think we were getting the pick this year. Just a hypothetical and theoretical idea. Never really had much of a chance if you did the real math and probabilities. Been too many teams to pass since early Feb regardless of how few games they were back. The odds of them doing a 180 and ALL 5 of teams ahead of them all foundering at the same time have been slim and none for weeks now.

Well, if you read the thread, there are some people here who still had hope despite the low odds. The Utah winning streak sort of killed all hope. We're still at least 9 days away from this being mathematically impossible.

johnnyvann840 · Post #833 » by **johnnyvann840** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:53 pm

TimRobbins wrote:
Well, if you read the thread, there are some people here who still had hope despite the low odds. The Utah winning streak sort of killed all hope. We're still at least 9 days away from this being mathematically impossible.

To all those people:

It's over. Been over. Let it go.

johnnyvann840 · Post #834 » by **johnnyvann840** » Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:23 pm

Last night is a perfect example of what I was trying to say 5 -6 weeks ago.

viewtopic.php?p=42791004#p42791004

The Kings won, finally, but Boston beat the Griz and BKN and MIA played each other so it was impossible for the Kings to make up any ground because one of those teams had to win. So, even if they rattle off a 7 out of 10 win run, they can't really make up any ground because of so many teams in between them and 11th. They have to displace ALL FIVE of those teams, not just one or two. Been highly, highly unlikely, nearly statistical impossibility (highly highly improbable) for a month and a half now.

TimRobbins · Post #835 » by **TimRobbins** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 1:02 am

Kings can't even beat the Sixers.

RIPskaterdude · Post #836 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 1:09 am

And that's with Cousins having 30-20 in the start of the 4th

TimRobbins · Post #837 » by **TimRobbins** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 1:47 am

RIPskaterdude wrote:And that's with Cousins having 30-20 in the start of the 4th

Well, they could still possibly go 14-4 in their last 18 and get to #11. If they go 16-2, they could get to #12.

RIPskaterdude · Post #838 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 1:50 am

Very true. So hey, how's the weather there in imaginary land?

jc23 · Post #839 » by **jc23** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:37 am

dang Sacramento, you let me down.

TimRobbins · Post #840 » by **TimRobbins** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 6:15 am

RIPskaterdude wrote:Very true. So hey, how's the weather there in imaginary land?

The weather is always good when you have hope.