Analyzing Our "Talent"

[SpinninHouse]

Thibs right now is going with a painfully short rotation. We've been talking a lot about our talent (or lack there of) so I did a quick glance at our guys who actually play and where they were drafted.

C Joakim Noah (#9 pick)
PF Carlos Boozer (#34 pick)
SF Mike Dunleavy JR (#3 pick)
SG Jimmy Butler (#30 pick)
PG Kirk Hinrich (#7 pick)
6 DJ Augustin (#9 pick)
7 Taj Gibson (#26 pick)
8 Tony Snell (#20 pick)
9 Nazr Mohammed (#29 pick)

Draft selection is not necessarily indicative of a players talent. For example, Cleveland selected Bennett #1 overall, while a guy like Kobe Bryant was drafted much lower. It can, however, give you some idea of how a player is generally viewed by scouts.

Looking at our current roster, our highest draft selection is Mike Dunleavy JR at #3 overall. It's safe to assume that he has proven to be a disappointment, as far as #3 pick's go. He's a decent rotation player but obviously never came close to franchise player or All-Star.

After MDJ is Kirk Hinrich, selected #7 overall in a wonderful draft class. Even in his best year he wasn't an All-Star and now is the twilight in his career.

Our two most accomplished players career-wise are Joakim Noah (DPOTY and two-time All-Star) and, believe it or not, Carlos Boozer. Boozer put up some monster years statistically with Utah, made the All-Star team twice, and had some great post-season efforts with the Jazz. Of the two only Noah is peaking now, as Boozer is clearly on the downside of his career. Boozer was selected in the 2nd round and Joakim went #9 overall (behind two of his Gator team mates).

Beyond MDJ, Hinrich, and Noah, only DJ Augustin was a lottery pick. Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Tony Snell, and Nazr Mohammed were all drafted #20 or lower.

So, in retrospect, while draft selection may not directly correlate to talent level - it's safe to assume that when our core players were entering the draft, the scouts did not view them as possessing incredibly high level talents. And the ones that did (MDJ, Hinrich, etc) were not only projected too optimistically high but are now also old.

Yikes.

[GimmeDat]

Well yeah, there's been a lot of comments about how we're not a particularly 'talented' team but make up for it with grit and grind.

Even the higher selected guys like Jo and Kirk weren't even necessarily high ceiling guys talent wise or athletically for their position, and fit the blue collar Bulls mode fairly well.

Only real guy who has supreme talent is Derrick and he was obviously an outlier as a #1 selection.

We know this team's good at scouting and drafting guys that will succeed as rotation players late in the first, but we haven't been a perennial lottery team to really have the opportunity to draft anyone better lately.

It's not secret we need more talent. These guys are all talented, but they know their roles. We need Rose back and hopefully Melo, and that's what it appears the FO is keen on addressing this summer.

[HomoSapien]

It's no secret that we're lacking in the talent department. Thibs' strongest quality is that he gets the most of out many of his players.

It'd be interesting to see how he'd do with guys who possess more raw talent. He obviously helped Rose elevate his game to an MVP status.

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

Everyone sucks

[DanTown8587]

There are at least four non playoff teams that I would have their end of game lineup to close out games than what Chicago has. Of the playoff teams, their end of game 5 is massively the worst and not even close.

[musiqsoulchild]

There are at least four non playoff teams that I would have their end of game lineup to close out games than what Chicago has. Of the playoff teams, their end of game 5 is massively the worst and not even close.

I am obvioisly assuming this excludes the talent of Rose right?

[MadMike]

It's no secret that we're lacking in the talent department. Thibs' strongest quality is that he gets the most of out many of his players.

It'd be interesting to see how he'd do with guys who possess more raw talent. He obviously helped Rose elevate his game to an MVP status.

I keep reading about Thibs getting the most out of his players, but if that's true why does he play only 8 players on a 15 man roster? There are 7 guys who Thibs is not getting anything from but cheers and high fives.

[MadMike]

Thibs right now is going with a painfully short rotation. We've been talking a lot about our talent (or lack there of) so I did a quick glance at our guys who actually play and where they were drafted.

C Joakim Noah (#9 pick)
PF Carlos Boozer (#34 pick)
SF Mike Dunleavy JR (#3 pick)
SG Jimmy Butler (#30 pick)
PG Kirk Hinrich (#7 pick)
6 DJ Augustin (#9 pick)
7 Taj Gibson (#26 pick)
8 Tony Snell (#20 pick)
9 Nazr Mohammed (#29 pick)

Draft selection is not necessarily indicative of a players talent. For example, Cleveland selected Bennett #1 overall, while a guy like Kobe Bryant was drafted much lower. It can, however, give you some idea of how a player is generally viewed by scouts.

Looking at our current roster, our highest draft selection is Mike Dunleavy JR at #3 overall. It's safe to assume that he has proven to be a disappointment, as far as #3 pick's go. He's a decent rotation player but obviously never came close to franchise player or All-Star.

After MDJ is Kirk Hinrich, selected #7 overall in a wonderful draft class. Even in his best year he wasn't an All-Star and now is the twilight in his career.

Our two most accomplished players career-wise are Joakim Noah (DPOTY and two-time All-Star) and, believe it or not, Carlos Boozer. Boozer put up some monster years statistically with Utah, made the All-Star team twice, and had some great post-season efforts with the Jazz. Of the two only Noah is peaking now, as Boozer is clearly on the downside of his career. Boozer was selected in the 2nd round and Joakim went #9 overall (behind two of his Gator team mates).

Beyond MDJ, Hinrich, and Noah, only DJ Augustin was a lottery pick. Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Tony Snell, and Nazr Mohammed were all drafted #20 or lower.

So, in retrospect, while draft selection may not directly correlate to talent level - it's safe to assume that when our core players were entering the draft, the scouts did not view them as possessing incredibly high level talents. And the ones that did (MDJ, Hinrich, etc) were not only projected too optimistically high but are now also old.

Yikes.

Draft selection simply shows us how many misses teams make in the draft every year. No way was there 8 players better than Joakim Noah in the 07 draft, or 29 players better than Jimmy Butler in the 12 draft, but they hype up certain players based on future potential, and many of them fail to perform due to inadequate coaching and lack of veteran support at the pro level.

Our current talent is reaching the age of where they are too old as a team, and may have reached their ceiling with or without Rose in the lineup. Hopefully, Mirotic and a couple of draft picks will bring fresh legs to the roster.

Everyone including Carlos Boozer himself knows he has played his last few games in a Bulls uniform so let me be the 1st to say "Thanks for the memories Booze." This will most likely be Capt Kirk's, and DJ Augustin's final week too, so Bravo and best wishes to them. Tony Snell & Taj Gibson may stay, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them involved with some sort of sign and trade agreement in June or July (Hopefully, with the Utah Jazz for Gordon Hayward and their lottery draft pick)

[Ice Man]

There are at least four non playoff teams that I would have their end of game lineup to close out games than what Chicago has. Of the playoff teams, their end of game 5 is massively the worst and not even close.

The same lineup that was the NBA's best 4th quarter unit for 3 months? Hmmm. I will say, that unit has been dreck the past 3 games (counting Charlotte).

[SimonFish]

gosh i didnt even know MDJ was a 3rd pick... 2002 draft lol

[Ice Man]

Talent. Well now.

Imagine you are a real GM (you saw what I did there) and you are given a team with the following conditions -

1) You get Carlos Boozer for free
2) Your soft cap for the rest of the roster is $26 million
3) Your hard cap is $39 million

How much talent do you think you can get? Do you plan on winning 48 games?

It's a bloody miracle the team has gone this far.

[coldfish]

I pointed this out before. The Bulls closing lineup makes about $24M per year and its not because its loaded with recent high draft picks still on their rookie deals. That's crazy. Chicago walks into every game this year with two hands and one foot tied behind their back due to the massive misallocation of money. Rose, Boozer and Bynum make around $40M and give the team virtually nothing combined. What the Bulls did this year was a miracle.

Fortunately, that $40M is going to get turned around this offseason. Hopefully. Its going to become productive players.

For a team that is so cash conscious, its truly amazing how many times in the past 10 years Paxson has managed to load the roster up with dead money or players who aren't worth nearly what they are being paid. Ben Wallace, PJ Brown, Joe Smith, Rip Hamilton, Boozer this year, Bynum, Pippen's corpse, etc., etc.,. IMO, its been GarPax's biggest flaw.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Why is 'talent' in quotation marks?

[Magilla_Gorilla]

I pointed this out before. The Bulls closing lineup makes about $24M per year and its not because its loaded with recent high draft picks still on their rookie deals. That's crazy. Chicago walks into every game this year with two hands and one foot tied behind their back due to the massive misallocation of money. Rose, Boozer and Bynum make around $40M and give the team virtually nothing combined. What the Bulls did this year was a miracle.

Fortunately, that $40M is going to get turned around this offseason. Hopefully. Its going to become productive players.

For a team that is so cash conscious, its truly amazing how many times in the past 10 years Paxson has managed to load the roster up with dead money or players who aren't worth nearly what they are being paid. Ben Wallace, PJ Brown, Joe Smith, Rip Hamilton, Boozer this year, Bynum, Pippen's corpse, etc., etc.,. IMO, its been GarPax's biggest flaw.

If Rose hadn't gotten hurt, again, this wouldn't even be worth mentioning. Its only a 'massive misallocation' because Rose went and blew up both knees after signing a huge deal. Who the hell saw that coming?

[Ice Man]

We sure could use Deng right now. That financial trade helped the owners' profits, but it quite possibly spelled the difference between a 1st round playoff loss and (considering Indy's struggles) a trip to the ECF.

[DuckIII]

I don't think anyone disputes that we need more end of game scoring talent. Derrick Rose, for example, would be nice. But evaluating talent based on draft position is, well, just not a good way to evaluate talent. Would our talent look better if we had Thabeet instead of Taj?

Other than for fan expectations and the contract value, draft status means nothing the morning after the draft. Your car is "new" until the minute you drive it off the lot.

[Nate3carp]

So, in retrospect, while draft selection may not directly correlate to talent level - it's safe to assume that when our core players were entering the draft, the scouts did not view them as possessing incredibly high level talents. And the ones that did (MDJ, Hinrich, etc) were not only projected too optimistically high but are now also old.

Yikes.

Yes, the 2003 draft class was historic, but only for 4 draft picks. Look at the picks after Hinrich. Who would you rather have than Kirk? I think the only that's really an argument is David West. And you would have to say you would have rather had Kirk than the #2 pick, Darko, so I would argue that he was appropriately rated. It's just too bad that we couldn't have landed a higher pick (meaning that we also would not have gotten Rose).

[GOCHICAGO111]

This thread is full of recency bias, group think, hindsight bias...oh lawdy.
One post after another, providing social proof to the next poster, and thus collectively escalating commitment lol.

[GOCHICAGO111]

We sure could use Deng right now. That financial trade helped the owners' profits, but it quite possibly spelled the difference between a 1st round playoff loss and (considering Indy's struggles) a trip to the ECF.

Without that Deng trade, we would not be in a position to draft Melo.

[Ice Man]

Without that Deng trade, we would not be in a position to draft Melo.

Just pointing out that the opportunity cost of the trade might be larger than we originally thought.