Analyzing Potential Bulls/Cavs Matchup

[Wont PerDont]

Can we discuss in-game basketball matchups?

Sure. I expect LeBron James to do more damage than we can off-set via matchups.

The biggest matchup advantage we have is Niko vs. anyone but LeBron. But I think LeBron could shut him down, if it came down to it.

I'll give this one last shot.

What is it about these matchups that you think is so one-sided:

Balanced set:

Rose vs Kyrie
Snell vs Wing (shumpert, Smith, etc.)
Jimmy vs Lebron
Mirotic vs Love
Noah or Gasol vs Big (Thompson or Mosgov)

I like this lineup for 6-8 minutes a half.

Jumbo Set

Rose vs Kyrie
Jimmy vs Lebron
Mirotic vs Smith, Jones, Miller or other standstill guy
Taj vs Thompson or Love
Noah/Gasol vs Mosgov/Perk

I like this lineup with Noah in the high post and the ball out of Rose's hands.

Small ball

Rose vs Kyrie
Snell vs wing (Shumpert, most likely)
Dunleavy or even Brooks (!) vs standstill guy
Butler vs Lebron
Noah or Taj vs Thompson or Love

Having the "best player on the court" is important, but basketball is still played by units of 5. I don't think saying "Lebron is going to do more damage" or that our best individual matchup is "Niko against anyone but Lebron" speaks to playoff basketball. In that case, Miami would and should have smoked the Spurs last year (when exactly the opposite occurred). It's not to say that every team plays like the Spurs or that Cleveland may not be better than Miami was, obviously, but it's an example of how lineups/matchups can win out. At the least, while I don't think we'd be favored to win the series (I'd guess we're at like 35% WITH a relatively healthy Rose in two months), I think some of those matchups above give us a puncher's chance - something more than a "major" underdog.

Your "small ball" lineup is unrealistic.

When have you EVER seen Thibs run a lineup without 2 legit bigs on the floor? I don't think he has done it once since Deng left and before that only when injuries (or maybe foul trouble) dictated it. Now I'm supposed to believe he is going to run a lineup out there w/MDJ playing up front?...in the playoffs? C'mon.

[mj234eva]

I think his core point remains:

Point differential - regular season or otherwise - is a seemingly less important indicator than playoff matchups. So much of the dynamic changes in a 7 game playoff series. In my estimation, the majority of it boils down to units vs units and a team's flexibility to mix and match to maintain an on-court competitive advantage throughout the game.

Matchups are important in the playoffs sure, I'm just not sure why we have the advantage.

The biggest advantage I see for them is Love, we have no one good to guard him in the starting lineup, except our best paint defender, Joakim Noah, former DPOY, who will be dragged out to the 3pt line and rendered much less effective. While on the other end, Mozgov has bullied Gasol in the paint, and Love and his horrible defense can just hide on Jo.

This will leave our soft underbelly exposed and at the mercy of Kyrie and LeBron PnRs, where teams have carved us up all year because Gasol has no other option but to fall back to the rim on PnR because of his slow feet and let the ball handler dictate the shot he wants.

The only good way we are going to have to counter this is for Thibs to quickly get out of that starting lineup situation using Taj or Mirotic. But based on his stuck in the mud rotations, he hasn't built up great optimism in this regard.

When you talk lineup matchups, one thing is undeniable, their starting lineup has crushed ours in performance to date. And while we use the excuse of health readily for the overall team, we actually do have fairly good minutes with our main 5, and they haven't performed very well yet. Even with Derrick, Mike and all 5 normal starters in there. And yet those 2 lineups will be by far the most featured lineups most games playing probably about 16 minutes head to head.

Since this is a reference to my post, I should state that I didn't say the Bulls would have the advantage. I don't believe they will.

[JohnD]

Sure. I expect LeBron James to do more damage than we can off-set via matchups.

The biggest matchup advantage we have is Niko vs. anyone but LeBron. But I think LeBron could shut him down, if it came down to it.

I'll give this one last shot.

What is it about these matchups that you think is so one-sided:

Balanced set:

Rose vs Kyrie
Snell vs Wing (shumpert, Smith, etc.)
Jimmy vs Lebron
Mirotic vs Love
Noah or Gasol vs Big (Thompson or Mosgov)

I like this lineup for 6-8 minutes a half.

Jumbo Set

Rose vs Kyrie
Jimmy vs Lebron
Mirotic vs Smith, Jones, Miller or other standstill guy
Taj vs Thompson or Love
Noah/Gasol vs Mosgov/Perk

I like this lineup with Noah in the high post and the ball out of Rose's hands.

Small ball

Rose vs Kyrie
Snell vs wing (Shumpert, most likely)
Dunleavy or even Brooks (!) vs standstill guy
Butler vs Lebron
Noah or Taj vs Thompson or Love

Having the "best player on the court" is important, but basketball is still played by units of 5. I don't think saying "Lebron is going to do more damage" or that our best individual matchup is "Niko against anyone but Lebron" speaks to playoff basketball. In that case, Miami would and should have smoked the Spurs last year (when exactly the opposite occurred). It's not to say that every team plays like the Spurs or that Cleveland may not be better than Miami was, obviously, but it's an example of how lineups/matchups can win out. At the least, while I don't think we'd be favored to win the series (I'd guess we're at like 35% WITH a relatively healthy Rose in two months), I think some of those matchups above give us a puncher's chance - something more than a "major" underdog.

Your "small ball" lineup is unrealistic.

When have you EVER seen Thibs run a lineup without 2 legit bigs on the floor? I don't think he has done it once since Deng left and before that only when injuries (or maybe foul trouble) dictated it. Now I'm supposed to believe he is going to run a lineup out there w/MDJ playing up front?...in the playoffs? C'mon.

It's a good thing I didn't predict that Thibs was going to run the lineup. Rather, was playing with our individual pieces to show flexibility that could match virtually any kind of lineup Cleveland put together.

[Rerisen]

Positive stat for you grumblers.

4th Quarter Average Margin

Bulls: +1.5
Cavs: +0.3

So we just need to keep it close.

Though it worked less well despite a similar gap in 2011.

[nitetrain8603]

I'll give this one last shot.

What is it about these matchups that you think is so one-sided:

Balanced set:

Rose vs Kyrie
Snell vs Wing (shumpert, Smith, etc.)
Jimmy vs Lebron
Mirotic vs Love
Noah or Gasol vs Big (Thompson or Mosgov)

I like this lineup for 6-8 minutes a half.

Jumbo Set

Rose vs Kyrie
Jimmy vs Lebron
Mirotic vs Smith, Jones, Miller or other standstill guy
Taj vs Thompson or Love
Noah/Gasol vs Mosgov/Perk

I like this lineup with Noah in the high post and the ball out of Rose's hands.

Small ball

Rose vs Kyrie
Snell vs wing (Shumpert, most likely)
Dunleavy or even Brooks (!) vs standstill guy
Butler vs Lebron
Noah or Taj vs Thompson or Love

Having the "best player on the court" is important, but basketball is still played by units of 5. I don't think saying "Lebron is going to do more damage" or that our best individual matchup is "Niko against anyone but Lebron" speaks to playoff basketball. In that case, Miami would and should have smoked the Spurs last year (when exactly the opposite occurred). It's not to say that every team plays like the Spurs or that Cleveland may not be better than Miami was, obviously, but it's an example of how lineups/matchups can win out. At the least, while I don't think we'd be favored to win the series (I'd guess we're at like 35% WITH a relatively healthy Rose in two months), I think some of those matchups above give us a puncher's chance - something more than a "major" underdog.

Your "small ball" lineup is unrealistic.

When have you EVER seen Thibs run a lineup without 2 legit bigs on the floor? I don't think he has done it once since Deng left and before that only when injuries (or maybe foul trouble) dictated it. Now I'm supposed to believe he is going to run a lineup out there w/MDJ playing up front?...in the playoffs? C'mon.

It's a good thing I didn't predict that Thibs was going to run the lineup. Rather, was playing with our individual pieces to show flexibility that could match virtually any kind of lineup Cleveland put together.

I take it your not a fan of Brooks or Gasol as you had them benched in all scenarios, especially Gasol who was benched in favor of two injured bigs.

[whonka]

Positive stat for you grumblers.

4th Quarter Average Margin

Bulls: +1.5
Cavs: +0.3

So we just need to keep it close.

Though it worked less well despite a similar gap in 2011.

Isn't that cuz the Cavs are usually up by 20 and resting their starters at that point, while the Bulls have close games against crappy teams?

[Wont PerDont]

I'll give this one last shot.

What is it about these matchups that you think is so one-sided:

Balanced set:

Rose vs Kyrie
Snell vs Wing (shumpert, Smith, etc.)
Jimmy vs Lebron
Mirotic vs Love
Noah or Gasol vs Big (Thompson or Mosgov)

I like this lineup for 6-8 minutes a half.

Jumbo Set

Rose vs Kyrie
Jimmy vs Lebron
Mirotic vs Smith, Jones, Miller or other standstill guy
Taj vs Thompson or Love
Noah/Gasol vs Mosgov/Perk

I like this lineup with Noah in the high post and the ball out of Rose's hands.

Small ball

Rose vs Kyrie
Snell vs wing (Shumpert, most likely)
Dunleavy or even Brooks (!) vs standstill guy
Butler vs Lebron
Noah or Taj vs Thompson or Love

Having the "best player on the court" is important, but basketball is still played by units of 5. I don't think saying "Lebron is going to do more damage" or that our best individual matchup is "Niko against anyone but Lebron" speaks to playoff basketball. In that case, Miami would and should have smoked the Spurs last year (when exactly the opposite occurred). It's not to say that every team plays like the Spurs or that Cleveland may not be better than Miami was, obviously, but it's an example of how lineups/matchups can win out. At the least, while I don't think we'd be favored to win the series (I'd guess we're at like 35% WITH a relatively healthy Rose in two months), I think some of those matchups above give us a puncher's chance - something more than a "major" underdog.

Your "small ball" lineup is unrealistic.

When have you EVER seen Thibs run a lineup without 2 legit bigs on the floor? I don't think he has done it once since Deng left and before that only when injuries (or maybe foul trouble) dictated it. Now I'm supposed to believe he is going to run a lineup out there w/MDJ playing up front?...in the playoffs? C'mon.

It's a good thing I didn't predict that Thibs was going to run the lineup. Rather, was playing with our individual pieces to show flexibility that could match virtually any kind of lineup Cleveland put together.

OK??? So, how does it show our flexibility if you know in advance the lineup will never see the court? We are talking about "analyzing potential Bulls/Cavs matchups" hence there being some importance to the lineups ACTUALLY matching up, no?

[riprose]

I would be just so happy if we can get to this stage with healthy Rose.

[musiqsoulchild]

Positive stat for you grumblers.

4th Quarter Average Margin

Bulls: +1.5
Cavs: +0.3

So we just need to keep it close.

Though it worked less well despite a similar gap in 2011.

I think thats a great stat to keep in mind.

I would guess that the 201 number was driven by defense and Derrick Rose. The 2015 number, however, is being driven by overall offense.

Thats the positive in 2015 in comparison to 2011.

[JohnD]

Your "small ball" lineup is unrealistic.

When have you EVER seen Thibs run a lineup without 2 legit bigs on the floor? I don't think he has done it once since Deng left and before that only when injuries (or maybe foul trouble) dictated it. Now I'm supposed to believe he is going to run a lineup out there w/MDJ playing up front?...in the playoffs? C'mon.

It's a good thing I didn't predict that Thibs was going to run the lineup. Rather, was playing with our individual pieces to show flexibility that could match virtually any kind of lineup Cleveland put together.

I take it your not a fan of Brooks or Gasol as you had them benched in all scenarios, especially Gasol who was benched in favor of two injured bigs.

Not sure what you're talking about. Gasol is an "or" with Noah in the first two lineups. I do think that, against the Cavs, we need Niko's versatility and floor-spacing, and he and Gasol aren't the best complements. Nevertheless, he's part of the first two lineups above.

[Drellberg]

Ah, man. I love the NBA. I am thrilled that the Cavs are better going into the playoffs than anyone predicted to start the season. I'm thrilled that the bulls have had breakout seasons from Butler and Mirotic, and that Pau has had a break back in season.

I love it that the bulls are going to be a healthy and better team than almost anyone is predicting even if (as I think likely) they are significant but not unrealistic underdogs.

It's a fantastic narrative. As a fan, how could I have hoped for more, except perhaps for this to be the matchup in the ECF rather than the second round.

This is going to be GREAT basketball ... assuming of course that real life doesn't get in the way of this series actually happening.

[aramada]

Except we haven't really overachieved this year. Given our roster, 50ish wins is not overwhelming.

I do agree that odds are not in our favor talent wise and momentum wise, though. It would clearly be an upset

I really hope to see Noah, Rose, Taj come up with that extra gear we've been waiting for all year

[Stratmaster]

I think his core point remains:

Point differential - regular season or otherwise - is a seemingly less important indicator than playoff matchups. So much of the dynamic changes in a 7 game playoff series. In my estimation, the majority of it boils down to units vs units and a team's flexibility to mix and match to maintain an on-court competitive advantage throughout the game.

Matchups are important in the playoffs sure, I'm just not sure why we have the advantage.

The biggest advantage I see for them is Love, we have no one good to guard him in the starting lineup, except our best paint defender, Joakim Noah, former DPOY, who will be dragged out to the 3pt line and rendered much less effective. While on the other end, Mozgov has bullied Gasol in the paint, and Love and his horrible defense can just hide on Jo.

This will leave our soft underbelly exposed and at the mercy of Kyrie and LeBron PnRs, where teams have carved us up all year because Gasol has no other option but to fall back to the rim on PnR because of his slow feet and let the ball handler dictate the shot he wants.

The only good way we are going to have to counter this is for Thibs to quickly get out of that starting lineup situation using Taj or Mirotic. But based on his stuck in the mud rotations, he hasn't built up great optimism in this regard.

When you talk lineup matchups, one thing is undeniable, their starting lineup has crushed ours in performance to date. And while we use the excuse of health readily for the overall team, we actually do have fairly good minutes with our main 5, and they haven't performed very well yet. Even with Derrick, Mike and all 5 normal starters in there. And yet those 2 lineups will be by far the most featured lineups most games playing probably about 16 minutes head to head.

Help me understand your claim that the starting lineup hasn't performed well. What are you basing that on?

[Rerisen]

Help me understand your claim that the starting lineup hasn't performed well. What are you basing that on?

Based on the starting lineups performance - those 5 guys only as a unit - compared against the starting lineups of other elite contenders.

Current Contender Starting Lineups Net +/- Per 100

Spurs: +24.0
Cavs: +20.6
Warriors: +19.2
Clippers: +18.0
Houston +11.5
Hawks: +7.4
Grizzlies: +7.4
Bulls: +3.0

I don't understand the more generic W-L record people like to use, as that is a team stat. And would be sort of like praising the Win/Loss record of a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA who was just winning because his offense was delivering 7 runs a game or something.

[Droseisthe1]

Block out Tristan Thompson every single time down!!

[Stratmaster]

Help me understand your claim that the starting lineup hasn't performed well. What are you basing that on?

Based on the starting lineups performance - those 5 guys only as a unit - compared against the starting lineups of other elite contenders. Ours was among the worst.

I don't understand the more generic W-L record people like to use, as that is a team stat. And would be sort of like praising the Win/Loss record of a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA who was just winning because his offense was delivering 7 runs a game or something.

If you are ignoring the fact that using the expected starting lineup is what allows the rest of the rotations to meld and thus result in a .789 win percentage when that 5 man unit starts I understand your point. I don't think we should ignore that. I think the baseball analogy is way off but I understand your point.

I also believe that the Noah/Gasol pairing is light years better recently than it was to start the season. How could it not be with Noah's physical situation the first half of the season?

The Bulls have (4) 5-man lineups with a plus rating and over 100 minutes of playing time together. The starting lineup ranks 4 of those 4. There are 3 lineups which have played over 100 minutes together and have a negative rating.

If you look at the 3 lineups which ranked better than the Bulls starting lineup, the top one is the Bulls starting lineup with Snell in place of Dunleavy. I expect that might make you gloat if it weren't for the abysmal W/L record while MDJ was out and this lineup saw most of it's minutes. The 2nd one features Hinrich at SG, something I think we can all hope to see a lot more minutes for. The 3rd one is barely (0.1 points) better ranked than the Bulls standard starting lineup. It is the Bulls starting lineup with Gibson in place of Noah. Another lineup we don't want to see tons of minutes for, and that only ranks even with the starting lineup because of Noah's early season struggles.

Our starters when healthy are one of the best lineups in the league. They just haven't been healthy much. Even when they were on the court together Noah, Rose and Butler were often at less than full strength.

BTW, good job of getting the expected negatives out before they could be stated. That is a great debate and/or sales tactic. Due to some of our past conversations I need to state that I mean that sincerely.

[Stratmaster]

Help me understand your claim that the starting lineup hasn't performed well. What are you basing that on?

Based on the starting lineups performance - those 5 guys only as a unit - compared against the starting lineups of other elite contenders.

Current Contender Starting Lineups Net +/- Per 100

Spurs: +24.0
Cavs: +20.6
Warriors: +19.2
Clippers: +18.0
Houston +11.5
Hawks: +7.4
Grizzlies: +7.4
Bulls: +3.0

I don't understand the more generic W-L record people like to use, as that is a team stat. And would be sort of like praising the Win/Loss record of a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA who was just winning because his offense was delivering 7 runs a game or something.

Adding those stats helps me understand your position. Thanks. The bulls most used lineup is showing up in BR as +3.5 and the Spurs as 9.5, so I don't think we are comparing the same stats. The Spurs lineup you are comparing may be their designated starters, but they played only 228 minutes together all season. Even the bulls starters played 327 and we say they didn't get much playing time together.

It would be interesting to see how many minutes all of those groups played on the court together, as well as analyzing their health relative to the Bulls health. It would also be much more meaningful to me to look at how their starters fared against the Bulls starters. I expect the Bulls will still fare poorly. When Noah played half of the Bulls 327 minutes he could barely run up and down the court.

I'm not sure what those numbers tell me in a vacuum and without context.

[DanTown8587]

Help me understand your claim that the starting lineup hasn't performed well. What are you basing that on?

Based on the starting lineups performance - those 5 guys only as a unit - compared against the starting lineups of other elite contenders.

Current Contender Starting Lineups Net +/- Per 100

Spurs: +24.0
Cavs: +20.6
Warriors: +19.2
Clippers: +18.0
Houston +11.5
Hawks: +7.4
Grizzlies: +7.4
Bulls: +3.0

I don't understand the more generic W-L record people like to use, as that is a team stat. And would be sort of like praising the Win/Loss record of a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA who was just winning because his offense was delivering 7 runs a game or something.

Almost all of those teams have the flexibility or need to start their best five but Chicago does not. Clearly the Bulls way to beating teams like Cleveland goes like this

- Keep it close the first 10 minutes
- Win the next 6-8 minutes with guys like Niko
- Close out strong the last 6-8 minutes with your best five

I mean the Bulls in 2011/12 had those closing lineups but they either weren't healthy or didn't make shots in the playoffs. We've NEVER seen a team in the Thibs era that was healthy in April. If Derrick comes back and doesn't have a set back, there it is.

[Rerisen]

- Win the next 6-8 minutes with guys like Niko

This is the part that bothers me. It was a part of the 2011 plan and didn't work too well then. I mean we did make up ground, but just didn't matter at the end of the games when it came down to closing.

People over estimate a 2nd unit beating up weaker regular season teams. Once you are playing LeBron and Kyrie both on the floor near 40 minutes, suddenly those teams 'backup units' are no longer as weak as perceived and you can often end up losing even what you thought was a strength, because they keep one of their best guys in to anchor those units in the playoffs.

- Close out strong the last 6-8 minutes with your best five

I mean the Bulls in 2011/12 had those closing lineups but they either weren't healthy or didn't make shots in the playoffs. We've NEVER seen a team in the Thibs era that was healthy in April. If Derrick comes back and doesn't have a set back, there it is.

Right. But we also haven't seen our best 5 in action or with any chemistry, or even how Thibs is going to matchup Niko with weird positions, like being willing to close with him guarding JR Smith or something.

Other teams have proven formulas and ours are all theoretical at the moment due to the turmoil of the season.

[MC3]

People analyzing our starting lineup/net. But last few months we dont even play with our starting lineup or we closing games with them.
Rose is injured. So lineup is not accurate from beggining or it's outdated when we coasted majority of games and played without energy against sub 0.500 teams. Unless Brooks is in that starting lineup. Let's go on second thing. Butler was injured so he wasnt also in starting lineup.

Third thing is...we dont even finish games with out starting line up. Mirotic become our last month and half our main guy. Usually at end of games they are either Noah or Gasol in lineup with Mirotic. All Bulls stats are misleading and if anybody who doesnt watch games and rely on just stats against Bulls. Those teams and those coaches wont know what hit them. And Cavs *cough* Bulls fans also wont know what hit them.