Predict our Pace Rank

[Rerisen]

I'm curious about how fast people think we will play next year. The snippets I'm reading seem to suggest a revolution of up-tempo due to Hoiball. Myself, I'm not entirely convinced this can be dictated by a system, unrelated to personnel. I.e. If Kirk Hinrich still plays, the pace will be slow while he's in. I tend to think the speed increase will be modest this year. I'm thinking like 16th.

Rose era Pace

2015: 23rd
2014: 29th
2013: 27th
2012: 28th
2011: 23rd
2010: 11th
2009: 10th

[johnnyvann840]

14th or 15th. Everybody is trying to play faster these days.

[GimmeDat]

I'd say middle of the pack, I'll say 11-15th but that's a big jump.

The number one person in the way of a faster pace is probably Gasol. He just can't play at a fast pace and he's going to be playing a lot of minutes. They'll play at a moderate pace at best when he's in, and a lot faster with Mirotic in.

[DRoseCantStop]

8th

[Rerisen]

I'd say middle of the pack, I'll say 11-15th but that's a big jump.

The number one person in the way of a faster pace is probably Gasol. He just can't play at a fast pace and he's going to be playing a lot of minutes. They'll play at a moderate pace at best when he's in, and a lot faster with Mirotic in.

Also on someone like Dunleavy, while he can spot up in transition, obviously he isn't going to handle the ball or go to the rim well.

Guys like Mike and Doug, until he proves otherwise, are only as good of up-tempo weapons as your ball handlers - meaning Rose and Butler facilitate for them.

I.e. players like Battier and Miller could be deadly for Miami trailing a break but *only* because LeBron and Wade led the break and set up the play. If Rose and Butler aren't doing that, working together, and setting up shots for people, then more one-dimensional non-athletic shooters end up not being that great in pushing the ball.

Even look at someone like Joe Johnson, he was dangerous with Nash in Phoenix in SSOL, but in Atlanta, not much of a tempo threat due to them not having a PG or other assets that could push it.

Bulls could still use more fastbreak 'finishers', hopefully Snell develops into a better one. It was sad when old man river Rip Hamilton joined our team and instantly became one of our best transition players after Rose.

[League Circles]

Dumb question - is pace quantified by average length of an offensive possession or by number of possessions per 48? Obviously the latter is half influenced by defense.

[Ice Man]

Guys like Mike and Doug, until he proves otherwise, are only as good of up-tempo weapons as your ball handlers - meaning Rose and Butler facilitate for them.

That seems right. The ballhandlers dictate pace, for the most part. Even Pau could play quickly, if we use him for pick & pop rather than in low post isolation. The main thing is for the guards (since we don't have ballhandling wings) to break down the defenses in a hurry and then find the shooters.

[mj234eva]

Dumb question - is pace quantified by average length of an offensive possession or by number of possessions per 48?

The latter.

[League Circles]

Dumb question - is pace quantified by average length of an offensive possession or by number of possessions per 48?

The latter.

OK, so that means that "pace" is only half influenced by how you play on offense. Not a very useful stat then IMO.

[Hangtime84]

Only gonna be the crazy guy and say 5th lol

[mj234eva]

I voted 16th - 20th.

[drosestruts]

I don't know where we'll rank in pace but one thing that always annoyed me over the last couple of years that i hope the Bulls go away from is the way we always look for Rose after securing a defensive rebound or steal instead of immediately pushing up. I trust our players (pretty much all of them) to dribble the ball up the court and push the pace, we don't need to wait four seconds looking to find Rose before making our move.

[meekrab]

I don't know where we'll rank in pace but one thing that always annoyed me over the last couple of years that i hope the Bulls go away from is the way we always look for Rose after securing a defensive rebound or steal instead of immediately pushing up. I trust our players (pretty much all of them) to dribble the ball up the court and push the pace, we don't need to wait four seconds looking to find Rose before making our move.

Butler Dunleavy and Snell were reasonably good about moving the ball up the court last season. Needless to say, Brooks and Hinrich also were.

I don't particularly want Gasol or Noah trying to dribble up the court, I don't know about you.

[Rerisen]

Dumb question - is pace quantified by average length of an offensive possession or by number of possessions per 48?

The latter.

OK, so that means that "pace" is only half influenced by how you play on offense. Not a very useful stat then IMO.

Remember though, every team in the NBA plays the same other 29 teams, so if other teams are slowing you down or speeding you up, its all going to come out in the wash in the end as far as your opponents impact on your pace.

[DRoseCantStop]

I don't know where we'll rank in pace but one thing that always annoyed me over the last couple of years that i hope the Bulls go away from is the way we always look for Rose after securing a defensive rebound or steal instead of immediately pushing up. I trust our players (pretty much all of them) to dribble the ball up the court and push the pace, we don't need to wait four seconds looking to find Rose before making our move.

Butler Dunleavy and Snell were reasonably good about moving the ball up the court last season. Needless to say, Brooks and Hinrich also were.

I don't particularly want Gasol or Noah trying to dribble up the court, I don't know about you.

I dunno fam, Pau had a nice coast to coast finish against the Heat last season.

[Rerisen]

I don't know where we'll rank in pace but one thing that always annoyed me over the last couple of years that i hope the Bulls go away from is the way we always look for Rose after securing a defensive rebound or steal instead of immediately pushing up. I trust our players (pretty much all of them) to dribble the ball up the court and push the pace, we don't need to wait four seconds looking to find Rose before making our move.

What other capable players have we had though to bring it up or even initiate early offense? Maybe Butler just beginning last year.

Noah tries on occasion to bring it up and make something happen, I would say that ends badly more than positively.

[League Circles]

The latter.

OK, so that means that "pace" is only half influenced by how you play on offense. Not a very useful stat then IMO.

Remember though, every team in the NBA plays the same other 29 teams, so if other teams are slowing you down or speeding you up, its all going to come out in the wash in the end as far as your opponents impact on your pace.

What am I missing here?:

Team plays pretty fast on offense, averaging fewer seconds per offensive possession than average.

Same team has stifling defense that focuses on getting the opponent to use their whole clock to take a bad shot. (like the best Thibs' teams).

# of possessions for such a team would show them to be below average pace whereas they actually play with quicker than average pace (on offense).

Of course everyone plays all 29 teams but only one team has their opponents face their own defense every game.;

Am I confused?

[musiqsoulchild]

OK, so that means that "pace" is only half influenced by how you play on offense. Not a very useful stat then IMO.

Remember though, every team in the NBA plays the same other 29 teams, so if other teams are slowing you down or speeding you up, its all going to come out in the wash in the end as far as your opponents impact on your pace.

What am I missing here?:

Team plays pretty fast on offense, averaging fewer seconds per offensive possession than average.

Same team has stifling defense that focuses on getting the opponent to use their whole clock to take a bad shot. (like the best Thibs' teams).

# of possessions for such a team would show them to be below average pace whereas they actually play with quicker than average pace (on offense).

Of course everyone plays all 29 teams but only one team has their opponents face their own defense every game.;

Am I confused?

I have always found Pace to be a flawed stat too. But, I look at number of shots attempted, number of possessions over the game as positive advantages.

For example, even in a game like Chess - the advantage of the first move is an advantage. White can play more proactively than Black (who is mostly focused on reacting to White's attacks).

The extra possessions matter - but how they are achieved is EQUALLY important. An SSOL offense is the wrong way to think about pace. Instead a team that gets second chance opportunities, takes a lot of good shots and creates difficult shots for the opponent, maybe even creates turnovers --- these are all the template for playing good basketball.

Basically, take more shots at a higher efficiency and get more possessions by rebounding like hell and playing tough defense. Isnt that the formula for winning, anyway?

[League Circles]

Seems like pace is a ridiculous stat, like many, that tries to combine multiple completely separate things into one measurable.

No wonder most great teams play with "slow"" pace. They're probably on average not slow at all but just great at making their opponent play slow by playing good defense.

[Rerisen]

What am I missing here?:

Team plays pretty fast on offense, averaging fewer seconds per offensive possession than average.

Same team has stifling defense that focuses on getting the opponent to use their whole clock to take a bad shot. (like the best Thibs' teams).

# of possessions for such a team would show them to be below average pace whereas they actually play with quicker than average pace (on offense).

Of course everyone plays all 29 teams but only one team has their opponents face their own defense every game.;

Am I confused?

If you are interested in offense only, then you aren't missing anything. Which I guess my OP did focus on.

But the definition of pace is simply how many possessions you use per game, which by default, includes how you are defending as a factor impacting the result.

Considering we are bringing the exact same team (plus Portis) back from last year, I think comparing our pace vs last year should be a pretty solid reflection of how much we are pushing it, even if we are only interested in our offense.

I think it would be interesting to try and find though how much a great defense really adds on to an opponent possession on average.

I bet somewhere like NBA.com does track the average point in the shot clock that a team shoots, if someone really wanted to focus specifically on that end, trying to cancel out defense noise. I know it is tracked for individual players.