This is the order of this post: Box score breakdown, Advanced stats breakdown, Shooting stats breakdown, Predictions/Conclusions. Each of these will be backed up with an eye test discussion. We know Jimmy is elite in defense so that will be discussed in the context.
FYI Notes:
-Obviously, the season is still young and Jimmy can decline but I believe Jimmy is conserving himself this season so I think the stats currently for this season might be a little lower than the level of play he is at right now. (A good example of this is the 13-14 year, He had the talent there and displayed it early on but the turf toe really hindered him).
-I try to watch every game but unfortunately this can’t always be the case. I have watched enough of our games to get a general impression but if I make too broad assumptions, please forgive me.
- This might be a little ramble-ly since A) I am not the best writer in the world and B) I don’t have THAT much time to spend on this but I want to get my thoughts out there now that I am have a few minutes during Thanksgiving break.
EDIT:
-I didn’t expect this post to be quite this long so if you guys want to skip it, I think I summarized most of it pretty well in the conclusion.
Let’s start with the Box Score p36 first:
13-14
Each year, Jimmy has improves significantly. The anomaly being the 2013-2014 year. This was the year he was hampered with the turf toe injury. Before that happened, Jimmy was showing great signs of improvement which I detailed here: viewtopic.php?t=1337097
If you read through the thread, a lot of people were hating, but the numbers which I calculated for that year, fall right in line with his general improvement rate: 13.6/5.8/2/2.3/.9 on 9.5 FGA 43.5% FG, 3.48 3pA 38.5% 3p, 5FTA 86% FT
Overall Scoring
When Jimmy first started taking on a scoring load in 13-14 as the starting SG, his FG% dipped a little to 44% but now it’s right back up to 46%. What’s amazing about Jimmy is that he has kept that constant as his volume has increased each year. I wonder if he can get his FGA to the 18-20 range. His usage% has increased every year and is currently at 24% right now. To put it into perspective all of the current superstars hover around 30 or more. So, Jimmy still can potentially raise his scoring if he is able to handle the ball more which after the GSW game, I believe he can. I think the hardest part of this for him is not being able to get to that level but sustaining it for 82 games, especially since he puts in so much effort on defense.
3pt Scoring
I can see Jimmy improving on is his 3pt shot which he has also improved year over year. His 3PArate has increased with each year. I believe as Jimmy’s career goes on, his shot will continue to improve (barring hampering injuries ofc). He is already at 39% on 3.8 attempts. I don’t think it’s too optimistic to predict he can get to about 40% on 5 attempts but if he stayed at ~40% on 4 attempts that’s still great for a power guard.
FT Drawing
Interesting enough, Jimmy’s free throw drawing has gone up. From the games I have seen so far this year, Jimmy hasn’t be as aggressive as last year (besides that GSW game) so this is a good sign. However, the less aggression is seen with the FTrate going down from .508 to .470. I understand why Jimmy would be wanting to pace himself. He has already proven himself last year and gotten his contract. I believe as the season comes closer to the end and especially in the playoffs, Jimmy will step up his aggression.
Rebounding
Jimmy’s rebounding has been consistent throughout the years and I think we can come to expect 5.5 rpg. His rebounding rate has hovered around 7-8%. Interestingly his DRB% rate has gone up each year slightly while the ORB% has declined. I believe the decline in ORB% is because he has been playing further and further from the rim which I will discuss more in detail later in this post.
Assisting
Jimmy’s assists have increased year to year along with his AST%. To be honest, I am slightly disappointed it hasn’t increased more this year after his “I believe I am a PG” comments. Each year his AST% increased by about 3%, this year it was only 1.4%. BUT this could also be due to him having more of a scoring burden to carry recently with Rose out, and Gasol and most of the other team members playing like crap.
Stealing
Jimmy is an excellent stealer who I think is still very underrated for it. He is the type that people should look at for valuable stealing. He averages nearly 2 steals a game but these aren’t the gambling type of steals (I like to call them empty steals) that other players higher on the list obtain. This is a very valuable trait that Jimmy has that provides an extra two possessions for the Bulls. I think he has maxed out his ability here but it gets exponentially to improve harder when you are already elite in a trait.
Blocking
Now this is where I feel bad for Jimmy. Jimmy has T-Rex arms. If he had Kawhi’s wingspan, I fully believe he would have been a Pippen level defensive player, and quite a bit better than Kawhi. Unfortunately, this is not the case. It’s a testament of Jimmy’s ELITE defensive IQ that he is such a ball hound and can position himself for some really amazing blocks. He should be good for .5 bpg just from his IQ and his athleticism.
Turnovers/Fouls
These are other categories which I think Jimmy is underrated in. Jimmy take cares of the ball very well. Stupid passes are not a problem with him. A lot of people qualify Harden as better due to his increased volume scoring (about 6 points more) but they ignore the fact that Harden has the ball in his hands a lot more and his TOV% is more than twice as much. Currently he is averaging more than 3 times Jimmy’s turnovers. If say the other team on average scores 1 ppg for each 3 TOs/g, the scoring difference comes to 3ppg and that still doesn’t factor in Jimmy’s more valuable steals and elite defense. Similarly with fouls, Jimmy plays elite defense but still fouls less than Harden who is a turnstile.
Now Advanced Stats:
We can see Jimmy’s improvement in pretty much each category by the slight increase in PER. Compared to last year, both his TS% and ORTG (122-> 115) has decreased. Again, the eye test confirm he hasn’t been as aggressive as last year which could be because he has finally proved himself and is pacing himself for the long season.
However, I think another aspect of this is he has started to balance his energy better between offense and defense and thus his defense has improved back to elite status (not that his defense wasn’t good last year, but he definitely declined last year in defense compared to his normal self). This is backed up by the fact that even though his efficiency declined slightly, Jimmy’s WS/48 is still about the same, his DRTG went from 104 last year (tied career high) to 99 this year (career low), and his DBPM increased from 0.6 to 1.5.
Interestingly enough, his OBPM stayed the same (I think the slight efficiency decline was balanced by the uptick in scoring) so overall his BPM increased from 4.7 to 5.5 indicating improvement.
Onto Shooting Stats:
The first stat I want to draw attention to is the average distance stat. Just two years ago people were adamantly against Jimmy shooting. I argued that it was due to his injuries but whatever the case maybe, he performed poorly. Oh boy, have times changed… Jimmy is currently playing at a further distance from the hoop compared to 13-14, drawing a whole lot more attention as a primary option compared to the 4th-5th 3-D option…and EXCELLING. Jimmy’s improvement has definitely been one of my most pleasurable moments to experience these past few years especially after what has happened with Rose…sigh.
Looking at the FGA breakdown, his shots at the rim have decreased by 33%. This combined with the average distance stat provides more evidence that maybe Jimmy hasn’t been as aggressive this year. His efficiency at the rim has also decreased about 4%, which I think can be attributed (at least partially) towards the lower FTrate this season.
3-10ft: Jimmy’s FGAs here have gone down but his FG% here has increased about 10%. Jimmy did say he was working on his floaters so this is some nice evidence towards his improvement in both shot selection and shot making.
10-3pt: I think this is where Jimmy made his biggest improvement compared to last year. He is shooting more from midrange but he is also making them more. Again, this is a testament to how much work Jimmy has put into his midrange game and shot. The same trend is seen with his 3pt shot. I think Jimmy’s next progression in this is to start reducing his midrange shots and converting his long 2s to 3s. As time goes on, I think his shot gets even more refined and I really think Jimmy can become a decently high volume 3point shooter.
Another great trend that is observed is the fact that Jimmy’s %assisted has gone down year to year for both 2pt and 3pt shots while retaining the same efficiency (or increasing it in regards to his 3pt shooting). As Jimmy gets more and more comfortable handling the ball and as he works on his handle, I think he can still take another step.
Also, from this stat (and average distance), you can see why Jimmy’s stats at the rim and FTrate have declined. As he is creating for himself farther and farther from the hoop, it’s harder to drive to the rim and Jimmy’s handles while good, aren’t great yet. I think this is an area Jimmy can improve in to take the next step.
Conclusions/Predictions:
I believe Jimmy has definitely improved another step from last year but he hasn’t fully shown his full improvement (besides in spurts) as he is pacing himself. From last year, he has improved his playmaking ability, his shot creating ability, his shooting ability, his scoring, along with bringing his defense back up to top-tier elite status while keeping his efficiency, turnovers, fouls the same.
Summer of 2014, I argued that Jimmy had become/exceeded the “Deng” level of player. Earlier this summer, I argued that Jimmy’s level has reached “Star” status and he had definitely passed Klay on the rankings.
On Klay: The only thing Klay has over Jimmy is he is a better shooter. However, Jimmy is sooooooo much better than him on everything else. Jimmy grows when the lights are shining on him while Klay fades. Klay has never been anything more than mediocre in the playoffs AND so far has been mediocre this season. People argued that Klay’s shot creation was better last season but tbh, Jimmy’s shot creation was close last year and this year it’s not even a discussion.
Now, I am arguing that Jimmy this year has nearly reached Harden’s status from last year and has definitely outplayed him so far this year. Considering last year Harden was second in MVP voting, that’s a pretty impressive feat. People look at how Harden is carrying the team with his scoring and assists, Jimmy just carries the team in the other aspects of the game. He goes underrated in which there is literally nothing he is not “good” at but there so many other underrated aspects of the game that Jimmy is “elite” at. Jimmy Butler is the TOP SG in the league right now.
I think what we have seen so far these past 12 games is what Jimmy’s floor will be for the next half decade. This slightly less aggressive Jimmy, is a type of game that can be sustained. I believe he will be able to refine his shot enough to counter loss of athleticism as the years go on ala Jordan. If this is where Jimmy plateaus, I would still be extremely ecstatic to have a player at his caliber on my team on the contract he has, especially when the cap goes up.
I think at least for this year, we will see a more aggressive Jimmy post all-star break and into the playoffs. This Jimmy will either A) increase his scoring, or B) increase his efficiency and firmly cement himself into superstar status.
Where it gets extremely interesting is if Jimmy continues increasing gradually his game for another year or two:
Time for hypotheticals
Slight improvement Scenario aka Jimmy GM Buckets: I think he will be able to refine his 3pt shot to 40% on 4 3PApg (+.2 3PApg). Let’s say he also increases his volume just a shade further to 17 FGApg by increasing his shots at the rim and returns to nearly last year’s FG% around the rim (60% vs 64%). That would only be a 1 FGA increase at the rim which would still be less shots at the rim per game compared to last year. Finally, he draws .7 more FTA per game and returns to shooting 80% at the FT line.
In that scenario, Jimmy’s averages would be: 23 points on 47/40/80. That’s pretty darn good. The “GM” stands for “gets more”.
Gradual Improvement Scenario aka Jimmy MF Buckets: If he continues on his trajectory (the small leap he took this year), his next step is:
-to refine his 3pt shot to 40% on 5 3PApg (+1.2 3PApg)
- to increases his volume further to 19 FGApg so +2.8 2PA.
-increases his handle further increasing his ability to draw shots and increase his FTAs to 9pg and returns to shooting 80% at the FT line.
In that scenario, Jimmy’s averages would be: 27 points on 47/40/80.
Honestly, Jimmy isn’t that far off from this scenario. This wouldn’t be a drastic leap as it was last year. If Jimmy got to this level, I think he will definitely be in the MVP talk. I can let you guys guess what “MF” stands for. *Hint: It’s based off of the character MF Jones in Horrible Bosses.
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So,
Worst case scenario: fringe superstar caliber player
Best case scenario: MVP caliber player
Either way, I am very excited to see where he goes from here. Leggo Bulls!
