HomoSapien wrote:AshyLarrysDiaper wrote:I'm off Dunn.
He's a four year guy that didn't dominate in college and there isn't a track record of those guys doing much in the NBA.
Redick, Fredette, Lillard, McCollum, McDermott... they all put up monster numbers as seniors. Even Buckets put up a 24 PER as a junior, and on a much lower usage% than Dunn.
I just don't see a precedent for someone with his profile becoming a high-level starter let alone a star. This draft is weak enough that I'd give him a look if lucked our way into the top 3, but parting with an asset to trade up seems like a reach to me.
I have these same concerns. He has obvious skills, but are there any examples of non-dominant seniors becoming stars in the NBA?
The intrigue with Dunn starts with his pretty dominant defensive metrics and his elite play-making ability, both of which should translate over to the NBA. This gives him a pretty high floor and an outside shot at being the best player in the draft. I do agree though, that giving up an asset to get him may not be the smartest idea, particularly when Baldwin may be available at 14.
The more I look into Baldwin's numbers from his season, the more impressed I am. For example, it's pretty incredible how Baldwin managed a TS% of about 57, despite the fact that he was a terrible finisher around the rim. Percentage at the rim is one statistic for which we can usually project improvement as players graduate to the NBA. There's much more room to operate in the paint in the NBA, as the game is more spaced out. Baldwin also played with Damian Jones, who clogged up the center of the lane.
I wonder if Vanderbilt would've run the offense through Baldwin what kinds of numbers we would've seen him put up. He's currently projected as a 3 and D guy because of his solid shooting touch and his athletic profile, but it seems like he may have some potential to create a lot of offense as well. His handle definitely needs to improve though, and keep up with his athleticism so that he can attack the basket relentlessly.
After Dunn and Baldwin, I don't feel too confident in the next few point guards on the draft board. Jackson might have a pretty safe floor since he can shoot the ball, but he doesn't really have any above average skills as of right now; he's just sorta good at everything. Gary Payton II is pretty intriguing, especially because of his athleticism and potential to be a defensive stopper, but he can't seem to dribble around a cone. Then we have Tyler Ulis, on the other end of the spectrum; all the skills in the world but size is a major concern.
