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TSE's Offensive Rankings

Post#1 TSE's Offensive Rankings
Mon Aug 8, 2011 12:16 pm by TSE

Here is my OE% formula (Offensive Efficiency) which shows the contributions that our batters provided while in the batter's box this year. There is no disclosure or sharing of the formula so please don't ask, it's similar on some level to OPS but yet still much different, and with my own enhancements to make it a more catch-all stat that more accurately shows the product of hitting skill and hitting logic.

8/8/2011 OE% ABs

M Cabrera .526 / 403
J Perralta .495 / 370
A Avila .478 / 309
B Boesch .459 / 398
V Martinez .448 / 362

A Dirks .416 / 147
C Wells .412 / 113
W Betemit .395 / 242 (season total)
W Betemit .388 / 39 (Tigers only)
D Worth .365 / 30
R Raburn .346 / 293
A Jackson .334 / 405
R Santiago .318 / 142
D Kelly .312 / 174
M Ordonez .307 / 243
C Guillen .298 / 69
S Sizemore .287 / 63
W Rhymes .261 / 68
B Inge .217 / 215

Updated through Sunday's games. I put a break in the list for guys that are not hitting at a high enough clip to justify having a roster spot. Obviously it depends on other factors, like if Ordonez was 5 years younger, we could give him credibility to be worth more time despite his low numbers for this year.

Dirks is still young, so his score could be considered ok for now, but even at .416, that's just still too low to be acceptable. But do we have any confidence that he can develop to hit at the higher levels where we need? I don't get that feeling from him so far, so he might not be a long-term key player to keep. Austin Jackson is still young and has potential, he's the strongest guy out of that bottom group from a hope perspective. Everybody else is too old, or proven to be too mediocre or subpar.

These numbers are very sad, especially for the money we spend on this team. It's absolutely disgusting mngmt. You can see how the top end of good scores is way down from the previous 4 years charted. A good GM needs to figure out a way to strategize BEFORE the season starts to leave himself with a chart that does not look as bleak as this one by the end of the season. OFFENSIVE MISSION = FAILURE

Not to mention, Perralta is having a career year, it's only by luck he is sky high. Martinez is also an unfortunate score for how high his Batting Average is. He doesn't walk enough, or strategize for the walk enough, he hits too many singles relative to XBH, and a few too many DPs. That's hurting his efficiency. In other words, if you are only going to ever hit singles, then your at a higher value to aim for a walk moreson than a guy like Cabrera. Swinging at a ball is always more likely to produce something negative before it produces a run, and you want to swing when you are gambling for XBHs, when you don't have that bang for your buck, the entire risk profile changes and thus the strategy to approach hitting completely changes. These players have to have very different outlooks on aggression versus trying to get a walk, but they don't, and we lose efficiency there, cause our players don't understand the game at all, and neither do any of our coaches.

The top 2 problems of this group are NOT ENOUGH POWER (we are 5th in MLB in team BA) and TOO MANY STRIKEOUTS (and naturally not enough free passes). Our plate discipline is absolutely atrocious. We are losing tons of games by simply being too aggressive at bad pitches. We put the ball in play to create outs or miss to create strikeouts when the other team is trying to offer us a risk free base. We need to turn the tables on our opponent and let them make the mistakes before we choose to act and put our team at risk. What if you could play blackjack at the casino where you make the dealer act first so he might bust before you even have to look at your cards? That would be pretty nice, and we have the right to do that in this game, but instead we play by house rules and hit on our hand first and too often, and that's where we lose. A good manager can shore up these odds by teaching the players how to minimize their risk by not swinging at inopportune scenarios as often.
TSE
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Post#2 Re: TSE's Offensive Rankings
Mon Aug 8, 2011 12:26 pm by TSE

Numbers from previous years, forgot to keep my 2010 sheet, but could always rebuild it if needed.

Inge's OE% in minors this year = .532

10/1/2009 OE%

W Ramirez 0.679
A Avila 0.582
M Cabrera 0.515
R Raburn 0.503
C Granderson 0.450
M Thames 0.430
C Guillen 0.420
M Ordonez 0.410

J Larish 0.394
P Polanco 0.392
C Thomas 0.388
B Inge 0.383
A Huff 0.382
R Santiago 0.380

D Kelly 0.340
A Everett 0.315
G Laird 0.315
J Anderson 0.311
D Ryan 0.159
D Sardinha 0.035

9/30/2008 OE%

M Hessman 0.802
M Cabrera 0.512
M Hollimon 0.501
D Ryan 0.496
R Santiago 0.492
C Granderson 0.482
M Thames 0.471
M Joyce 0.469
M Ordonez 0.467
C Guillen 0.438
P Polanco 0.408
C Thomas 0.404
G Sheffield 0.381
B Inge 0.374
E Renteria 0.362
R Raburn 0.356
J Larish 0.350
D Sardinha 0.206
AVERAGE 0.435

M Ordonez 0.583
T Perez 0.531
C Granderson 0.526
G Sheffield 0.490
C Guillen 0.488
P Polanco 0.474
M Hessman 0.447
M Thames 0.437
R Raburn 0.426
S Casey 0.397
I Rodriguez 0.390
B Inge 0.382
R Santiago 0.351
O Infante 0.332
M Rabelo 0.293
C Maybin 0.268
AVERAGE 0.457
Cabrera '07 0.541
TSE
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Post#3 Re: TSE's Offensive Rankings
Fri Aug 12, 2011 9:48 am by cochiseuofm

LOL...there isn't a credible statistician out there who would expect people to take their numbers seriously without showing what their formula is.
cochiseuofm




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Post#4 Re: TSE's Offensive Rankings
Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:58 pm by TSE

Yes there are. That's not how stats work. And the author has to have an intent and purpose of wanting the audience to take their numbers seriously or to accept them as alternatives to other stats before they would disclose the formula. That's not my goal or objective and doesn't apply to this situation. The numbers are important to me and you don't need to know how they are built to see and understand the core result which is my personal rankings of how I view the players. The stats are my arbitrary form of grading to show the order and gaps for how I personally view the players' performances. If you don't find value in the info then that's ok, as they weren't posted with an intent to try and convince you of anything. I've shared my numbers for many years and many people tell me they find it to be VERY interesting and others tell me they find it VERY entertaining. Otherwise I would just tell you the formula and ask for your opinion on if you think it's a better design then other baseball stats. To each his own, but you don't have to be rude about it just cause it doesn't mean anything to you.
TSE
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Post#5 Re: TSE's Offensive Rankings
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:01 am by kellmellus50

BY THE NUMBERS Braden inge

Here's how Inge's major and minor league statistics this year, entering Saturday, compare:




Team

DET TOL
Games

70 - 23
At-bats

215 - 89

Runs

18 - 15

Hits

38 - 29
Doubles

7 - 4
Triples

2 - 0
Home runs

1 - 6

RBIs

17 - 18
Steals

1 - 0
Walks

17 - 15
Strikeouts

60 - 23

Average

.177 -%

.242 - .423

Slugging%

.242 - .573
http://www.freep.com/article/20110814/S ... do-culture
You have to live,dance,party,and always have fun with everyone.
kellmellus50
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Post#6 Re: TSE's Offensive Rankings
Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:27 pm by TSE

Hmmm, maybe the league should put in a handicap rule. Every time Inge comes up to the plate, the pitcher goes out and a minor league pitcher comes in. That way it's more fair. :)

Or maybe Inge is finally getting healthy, and now maybe he can improve when he gets his final shot.
TSE
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