Expansion Draft Scenario -- Who would you protect?

Post #1 » by **Texas Chuck** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 2:29 pm

Trades and Transactions board is going to be doing an expansion draft project where we imagine we are running a new expansion team starting play in 2015/16 and having to create our initial roster pulled from current NBA teams.

So in advance of that I'm trying to get the best possible idea of what 8 players each franchise would most likely choose to protect. And while last year we depended on our Trade board posters to provide us that list, this year we thought it would be more accurate if we consulted with the team boards.

So I would love to get your opinions itt on which 8 players you think the Cavs would protect in an expansion draft. I am attaching a link to last year's project so you can see some of the criteria we used when assembling the expansion team. Other than the cap figures the rules would be roughly the same this year.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1348605

We'd also love to have any and all of you come participate in this project.

toooskies · Post #2 » by **toooskies** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:03 pm

It's kind of awkward to do at this point in the season, since you can't really replace anybody; the Cavs still don't even have everyone assumed to be on the 2015 roster under contract yet. If you lose a player via expansion draft, do you get a cap exception for their salary?

Kyrie, Love, Lebron, Shump, Mozgov are automatic. I think we keep TT, JR, Dellavedova if we sign each of them.

This is assuming they won't want Varejao's contract; Mo is too old to build a team around; we'd be fine losing Mike Miller's salary under circumstances we don't control. Harris, Christmas, Pointer, Osman, James Jones, Jefferson-- they can have them if they want them.

But the team is kind of built around vets who signed deals on low contracts to compete on a contender. Miller, Mo, Jefferson probably don't sign their FA deals below-market if they think an expansion draft is a possibility.

Birdie · Post #3 » by **Birdie** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:04 pm

What a fun exercise. I think the Cavs are pretty easy to peg assuming TT/JR are signed.

Protected: LBJ, Love, Kyrie, TT, Mozzy, Shump, JR, Kaun. if signed/if not, then Mo.

Unprotected: Andy, Delly, Harris, MM, JJ, Jefferson, Christmas, Pointer

I'm going with the assumption that this expansion team is coming into the league this upcoming season, so, we're operating on contracts that just got signed? So, I'd rather protect Kaun, who'd be a bargain backup big getting paid peanuts as opposed to protecting Delly, who could be making 2-3-4mil/yr. If Kaun isn't on the team, then again, I'd go with Mo, because we got him for 2 years and provides a little more offensively/vet leadership than Delly, even if he were signed for 2-3-4 years.

tidho · Post #4 » by **tidho** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:33 pm

Kyrie, Shump, LeBron, Love, Moz
TT, JR, Mo

I think that's the eight man rotation and don't see why you'd deviate from that.
I can't see any of the rest being considered by an expansion team except maybe Christmas.

Dupp · Post #5 » by **Dupp** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:50 am

Bron, Love, Kyrie, Moz, TT, Shump, JR, Delly

Post #6 » by **TheOUTLAW** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:18 pm

Delly?

Birdie · Post #7 » by **Birdie** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:32 pm

TheOUTLAW wrote:Delly?

The hype is real! I can understand though. For this expansion purposes, he'd be a cheap backup on relatively cheap contract for the expansion team. Until we see the other teams' unprotected, I think Delly would be a good chance to get picked.

Post #8 » by **TheOUTLAW** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:13 pm

He's the kind of player that gets picked but mainly because he's not terribly talented and teams would have 8 players that they'd rather keep in front of him. The idea that we'd protect Delly makes you look at the Daugherty/Price era Cavs in awe thinking wow, they left Dell Curry unprotected.

toooskies · Post #9 » by **toooskies** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:22 pm

Any vet taking less money to win basketball games is a risk to retire if he gets sent to a team that has no chance to win. So Mo wouldn't get picked, so it's not worth it to try and protect him. Same thing with Kaun-- he'd retire if he were expansion-drafted while on the contract the Cavs will sign him to. You protect Delly because there's no chance he does anything except play for the team he's on.

Birdie · Post #10 » by **Birdie** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:13 pm

Mo 32 and Kaun 30, retire? Mo isn't giving up 2.1mil. Mo & Kaun would provide more depth wise for CLE than Delly. He's expendable. Mo or Kaun wouldn't be easily replaceable with some scrub off the FA trash heap.

toooskies · Post #11 » by **toooskies** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 5:57 pm

Birdie wrote:Mo 32 and Kaun 30, retire? Mo isn't giving up 2.1mil. Mo & Kaun would provide more depth wise for CLE than Delly. He's expendable. Mo or Kaun wouldn't be easily replaceable with some scrub off the FA trash heap.

Mo already gave up at least 2.1 million by signing with the Cavs that low-- he easily could've made double somewhere else. Kaun is technically already retired and is no guarantee to play anywhere this year. Neither would suit up for the salary the Cavs would give them for a team about to go 15-67.

Now that Delly is back on a 1-year deal where he's unrestricted next year (not how I thought that would work out), no one is going to pick him in an expansion draft either. So sure, protect Mo or Kaun. But I don't see either one getting picked anyway. They're risks for bad PR. The last thing they'd want to do is negotiate a buyout or see their draftee retire.

Birdie · Post #12 » by **Birdie** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:11 pm

toooskies wrote:
Birdie wrote:Mo 32 and Kaun 30, retire? Mo isn't giving up 2.1mil. Mo & Kaun would provide more depth wise for CLE than Delly. He's expendable. Mo or Kaun wouldn't be easily replaceable with some scrub off the FA trash heap.

Mo already gave up at least 2.1 million by signing with the Cavs that low-- he easily could've made double somewhere else. Kaun is technically already retired and is no guarantee to play anywhere this year. Neither would suit up for the salary the Cavs would give them for a team about to go 15-67.

Now that Delly is back on a 1-year deal where he's unrestricted next year (not how I thought that would work out), no one is going to pick him in an expansion draft either. So sure, protect Mo or Kaun. But I don't see either one getting picked anyway. They're risks for bad PR. The last thing they'd want to do is negotiate a buyout or see their draftee retire.

Yes, but this exercise is if the expansion draft happened after this season, Mo/Kaun would still be signed for the 2016-2017 season on really cheap deals.

Seeing as the parameters of the expansion draft were set with a 45mil cap, a player of Mo/Kaun's ability on ridiculously cheap contracts would be valuable to a new team. Mo would def. be snatched up. I'd rather keep Mo than Delly. And yea, Delly might not be picked which would be win/win for Cavs but like I said, I'd roll the dice on Delly as opposed to Mo.

As for Kaun, he's only said he's retired from Euroleague play. He could be Timo 2.0. Kaun has softer hands and a bit more nimbler than Timo, so, yea, when cheap competent big guys are to be had, you hold on to them.

But you do have a point on buying out Mo if he doesn't want to play with that club. It is a strong possibility.

toooskies · Post #13 » by **toooskies** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:22 pm

The new team starts play in 2015-16, according to the first post of this thread. Not after this season.

And again, no expansion team is really going to be focused on winning-- just having a team will be enough to put butts in seats. After that, you're trying to establish credibility with players and fans. Winning in the first year is so low on the priority list, there's no way you risk drafting guys who wouldn't want to be there.