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Brett Lawrie

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Turk Nowitzki
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#21 » by Turk Nowitzki » Tue Apr 3, 2012 4:20 pm

LUKE23 wrote:I would easily take back the trade today if I could.

Assuming we would still have Greinke, I would too.
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#22 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Apr 3, 2012 4:40 pm

Ask me again in October.
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#23 » by MetroDrugUnit » Tue Apr 3, 2012 5:04 pm

This deal sums up where we stand as a francise. We are in a much beeter spot now then we were before Mark A but the only way we're going to get good pitching is to make moves like this. Out GM is just starting to figure out that you need at the very least solid starting pitching to make the playoffs and to actually do something once you get there. We also aren't in a spot where we are going to pay to land a #1, #2 or #3 guy.

It hurts to lose Lawrie and we might not feel that pain right away but after this season when Marcum is either gone or signed to a stupid extention we will. Don't get me wrong, I like Marcum and like what he brought to the club last season but it was very appearent late in the year and most notably the playoffs he just didn't have it.
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#24 » by RiotPunch » Tue Apr 3, 2012 5:47 pm

I'm gonna hold off on flaming this deal until after this season. We obviously have to use Shaun differently throughout the year because he had an absolutely dead arm in the post-season and cost us a chance at the World Series. Earlier in the year, though, he was far and away our best pitcher.

I love Lawrie, and part of me hated the deal when it happened and it is easy to hate the deal now with Marcum giving up homers left and right in the playoffs fresh in our minds... but I want to see how he bounces back and how we manage him differently this year before calling trade-backs.
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#25 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Apr 3, 2012 6:22 pm

Marcum is a dead arm all season. Not that the season didn't take a toll on his surgically repaired arm, but the season before I had him in fantasy and watched him go through some painful 110 pitch 4 inning type outings against offenses like Boston. He plays with fire with good offenses because he can't overpower them.
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#26 » by BUCKnation » Tue Apr 3, 2012 8:06 pm

DrugBust wrote:Ask me again in October.

This.
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#27 » by emunney » Tue Apr 3, 2012 8:54 pm

We've made this gamble a few times and Lawrie is the only time it worked out negatively. If you think about it as a long term process, we've lost Lawrie, but we've gained half a year of C.C., Greinke and Marcum plus two playoff births. I wouldn't say the process is broken, so that tempers my lament, but yeah, it would be nice if it always worked perfectly.
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#28 » by Bernman » Wed Apr 4, 2012 2:34 am

That's amazingly dumb to say the Brewers wouldn't have made the playoffs without Marcum or that it was worth about 7 seasons of better shots at the playoffs in the future. Marcum won 3.3 games above replacement level last season. The Brewers would have had to lose 7 more games and a play-in to not beat out the Braves for the Wild Card spot. And if they wouldn't have traded Marcum, they'd have had Lawrie instead of McGehee at 3rd base for most of the year. McGehee had a -1 WAR while Lawrie's was 2.8, in spite of Lawrie not being up for up for much of the year and suffering injuries he wouldn't necessarily have in Milwaukee. And if Marcum wasn't acquired, the Brewers would have probably signed Capuano, who sported a 1.7 WAR. With Lawrie and Capuano/alternative there's no way in hell the Brewers would have lost 7+1 more games, and in all likelihood would have fared better in the playoffs without Marcum single-handedly losing 3 games and Lawrie adding punch to the lineup. At this point the trade looks atrocious. There's no way to spin it.

That includes looking at the Brewers' trades of prospects for veteran pitchers in combination like emunney argued. They're all independent. General managers have different opinions on how prospects will pan out. It's not random. Lawrie was a stud prospect given his success for his age relative to levels. He shouldn't have been relinquished for any player who wasn't special and on a multi-year contract with the possibility you'd want to extend them long-term. Marcum was far from special. If Doug would have traded Greinke for Lawrie, he'd fit all those categories, so it would have been justified, but not Marcum.

Doug had a rough 1-2 years trying to chase the playoffs, when if he didn't make many of the moves he did, the team would have made the playoffs anyways, and be set up better to make them in the future. But this offseason he was excellent, so if I'm going to criticize him, I have to praise him when deserved. Acquired an acceptable replacement for Prince in the middle of the order while not mortgaging any of the future, upgraded the D through Gonzalez, made an out of the box move in signing Aoki for depth, returned K-Rod at a reasonable price, and didn't trade nor block Gamel. Now we'll have to see how they play out, but if the team doesn't make the playoffs I doubt it will be because of them, but rather increased man games lost due to injury, or Braun isn't the same player due to the pressure or actually having been dirty.
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Re: Brett Lawrie 

Post#29 » by WEFFPIM » Wed Apr 4, 2012 3:48 am

Bernman wrote:That's amazingly dumb to say the Brewers wouldn't have made the playoffs without Marcum or that it was worth about 7 seasons of better shots at the playoffs in the future. Marcum won 3.3 games above replacement level last season. The Brewers would have had to lose 7 more games and a play-in to not beat out the Braves for the Wild Card spot. And if they wouldn't have traded Marcum, they'd have had Lawrie instead of McGehee at 3rd base for most of the year. McGehee had a -1 WAR while Lawrie's was 2.8, in spite of Lawrie not being up for up for much of the year and suffering injuries he wouldn't necessarily have in Milwaukee. And if Marcum wasn't acquired, the Brewers would have probably signed Capuano, who sported a 1.7 WAR. With Lawrie and Capuano/alternative there's no way in hell the Brewers would have lost 7+1 more games, and in all likelihood would have fared better in the playoffs without Marcum single-handedly losing 3 games and Lawrie adding punch to the lineup. At this point the trade looks atrocious. There's no way to spin it.

That includes looking at the Brewers' trades of prospects for veteran pitchers in combination like emunney argued. They're all independent. General managers have different opinions on how prospects will pan out. It's not random. Lawrie was a stud prospect given his success for his age relative to levels. He shouldn't have been relinquished for any player who wasn't special and on a multi-year contract with the possibility you'd want to extend them long-term. Marcum was far from special. If Doug would have traded Greinke for Lawrie, he'd fit all those categories, so it would have been justified, but not Marcum.

Doug had a rough 1-2 years trying to chase the playoffs, when if he didn't make many of the moves he did, the team would have made the playoffs anyways, and be set up better to make them in the future. But this offseason he was excellent, so if I'm going to criticize him, I have to praise him when deserved. Acquired an acceptable replacement for Prince in the middle of the order while not mortgaging any of the future, upgraded the D through Gonzalez, made an out of the box move in signing Aoki for depth, returned K-Rod at a reasonable price, and didn't trade nor block Gamel. Now we'll have to see how they play out, but if the team doesn't make the playoffs I doubt it will be because of them, but rather increased man games lost due to injury, or Braun isn't the same player due to the pressure or actually having been dirty.


Holy lot to digest, Batman. And I still am withholding judgment on this trade based on what happens this season with both Marcum and Lawrie.

Maybe I overestimate how key it is to have a solid, consistent starter in the middle of your rotation and what that does for the rest of the rotation and the bullpen, but who knows where this team is at last June with Estrada in place of Marcum. I'd wager a guess it would have been difficult to make the postseason from that spot, though.
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