El Duderino wrote:Kerb Hohl wrote:I don't think it's "lack of concentration," it is the fact that he doesn't have a good enough variety of pitches or plus fastball, so the 2nd/3rd time around the order hitters will sit on the right pitch. Looks like he has fixed something revolving around that this year, or at least he's gotten a great bit of luck.
I don't think it was even that. Regardless if it was the first time through the order or the third time, every hitter stepping to the plate knew that about 90 percent of his pitches would either be a straight as an arrow 88-90mph fastball or changeup. No mystery at all.
I'm not sure what the exact problem is/was, but he and Fiers have suffered from the same problem, and they both happen to be heavy changeup/fastball guys that don't have a plus fastball.
League average OPS via time through the lineup:
1st: .678
2nd: .708
3rd: .751
Fiers career:
1st: .663
2nd: .680
3rd: .844
Estrada career:
1st: .638
2nd: .730
3rd: .844
For whatever reason, 2-pitch fastball/changeup guys have this problem. I'm not an MLB hitter, so I don't know why it becomes a lot easier for the hitter the 3rd time around.
This year, Estrada is .578/.695/.659 so he's figured something out. Looking at his PITCHFX, it looks as though he's added a cutter that he throws 6% of the time instead of never. He's cut down on the curveball slightly and the fastball a decent amount (8%) in its stead.
When he's having a bad year, hitters figure him out the 3rd time. He didn't throw the cutter at all last year and he went .738/.777/.942 (those first 2 times around are not great in themselves).