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Offseason thread - Hunter Morris Traded to Pitt

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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#21 » by raysbookclub » Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:58 pm

The hitting revolution may be under way. The Kansas City Royals are in the World Series, and the San Francisco Giants are one win away from joining them, in part because they successfully have countered the record-setting strikeout environment of today's game.

The Royals, the toughest team to strike out in baseball, whiffed 28 times in their four-game sweep of Baltimore in the American League Championship Series. Their rate of 7.0 strikeouts per game in the ALCS sits below the MLB average of 7.70 per game — a rate that has gone up nine consecutive years.

San Francisco is winning postseason games by taking advantage of balls in play of any kind. They have scored more runs in their past six games on plays without a hit (12) than with one (10) – and without hitting a home run. In Game 4, they set an NL playoff record with a sixth straight game without a homer in one postseason. Only the 1973 Athletics, who went eight straight games without a homer, had a longer streak.

"We joke we have a Bloop Attack, a Walk Attack, any kind of attack," said San Francisco hitting coach Hensley Meulens. "And we have the RTI — runs thrown in."

The Giants operate under a very smart hitting philosophy for today's game, one that is inspired by playing their home games in a pitcher's park. Meulens preaches a flat swing that keeps the barrel in the zone longer than the modern power swing, which has a slight lift to it. San Francisco sacrifices the opportunity for the occasional home run in favor of the frequent ball in play.

As strikeouts and shifts continue to gain traction, the hitter who can make contact and use the full width of the field becomes more valuable. Look for teams in spring training next year to put more emphasis on this approach; the Pirates did just that in their camp this year. The philosophy is bound to become more popular because of the success of the Royals and Giants.


http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/10/16/three- ... inals-nlcs

I know the Brewers play in a hitter's/HR park, and Melvin talked about getting players that fit the park, but the Giants-Royals hitting philosophy makes a lot of sense, especially today vs the 1995-2010 era.

Good defense, consistent-contact hitting is like the opposite of the Brewers' development approach. Funny/interesting/infuriating that arguably the two best fielders the Brewers' system has produced in the last 10 years were Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar, and we gave up BOTH guys in the KC trade.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#22 » by ReasonablySober » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:03 pm

DanoMac wrote:One thing that's bothered me (PANDEMONIUM kinda did it) is people lumping in Segura with Gennett, or wanting a platoon with Segura, or hell, some people even thinking Segura is done.

Call me crazy, but I still have a ton of hope for the kid and still think he has star potential. He had about as rough a year as anyone can have, and I definitely give him a break because of that. Defensively, he's a monster.

In the AFL 2 years ago he was raking. During the 2013 season he was raking. He'll come back around (maybe not the .310-.320 he was hitting) but I have faith he'll be a .280-.300 guy


The thing about Segura is he was only raking in 2013 for two months:

April: .985
May: .911
June: .725
July: .681
August: .584
September: .553

I don't have a ton of hope that he'll ever be a SS we're not looking to replace.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#23 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:16 pm

If I played in a pitcher's park, I'd build my team for speed/defense/somewhat small ball. The Brewers don't, so I'm not sure. Regardless, I'd still try to get stud pitching. You can pitch to contact in a pitcher's park.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#24 » by coolhandluke121 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:34 pm

I think Segura could be like Gomez. Some patience can be learned. He's got all the tools. It's not surprising at his age that he's struggling with patience at the plate. He just needs to get out of the bottom 10% in all of MLB when it comes to patience. He doesn't have to be Joey Votto to make a huge leap.

I also think they have to go for it next season. You can't sell a rebuild by trading guys like Lohse, Gallardo, and Ramirez. That's not even half-assed; it's quarter-assed at best. So then you have to trade Lucroy and Gomez, but there's no reason to do that now. Their trade value is very unlikely to go down this year, so why not make one more run at it?

Here are some guys I would target:

Zobrist
Joyce
Dejesus
Loney
LaRoche
Rollins
Morneau
Ike Davis
Seth Smith

I don't think it would take that much to get any of them, and none of them have long-term deals. I want to see them get more depth and have some more left-handed bats. More importantly, for once I want them to have a respectable starter at every position.

My most controversial position is going to be trading Davis, Scooter, and Nelson. They aren't cornerstone talents, and the Brewers don't have a future where they're going to need supporting-cast talent like them. I place a premium on the value of contending next year, and that trumps 5 years of solid but unspectacular cheap production on a team that's going nowhere.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#25 » by DanoMac » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:46 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
DanoMac wrote:One thing that's bothered me (PANDEMONIUM kinda did it) is people lumping in Segura with Gennett, or wanting a platoon with Segura, or hell, some people even thinking Segura is done.

Call me crazy, but I still have a ton of hope for the kid and still think he has star potential. He had about as rough a year as anyone can have, and I definitely give him a break because of that. Defensively, he's a monster.

In the AFL 2 years ago he was raking. During the 2013 season he was raking. He'll come back around (maybe not the .310-.320 he was hitting) but I have faith he'll be a .280-.300 guy


The thing about Segura is he was only raking in 2013 for two months:

April: .985
May: .911
June: .725
July: .681
August: .584
September: .553

I don't have a ton of hope that he'll ever be a SS we're not looking to replace.


He definitely fell off after the All-Star break, but I didn't think it was anything too concerning considering he was traded here, brought up for the rest of the season, then the AFL, then to spring training, then our starting SS day 1. That's a lot to handle for a 22-23 year old.

Hopefully he can regain a little composure and mental stability in the offseason and come back fresh next year.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#26 » by Siefer » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:49 pm

DanoMac wrote:
Siefer wrote:
DanoMac wrote:One thing that's bothered me (PANDEMONIUM kinda did it) is people lumping in Segura with Gennett, or wanting a platoon with Segura, or hell, some people even thinking Segura is done.

Call me crazy, but I still have a ton of hope for the kid and still think he has star potential. He had about as rough a year as anyone can have, and I definitely give him a break because of that. Defensively, he's a monster.

In the AFL 2 years ago he was raking. During the 2013 season he was raking. He'll come back around (maybe not the .310-.320 he was hitting) but I have faith he'll be a .280-.300 guy


I like Segura, but he's got huge flaws in his plate approach that are going to put a hard cap on his upside. Normally I'd say a BABIP of .275 is unlucky, but Segura just has no clue what to swing at, and it resulted in an incredible number of weak grounders to second and short. The only thing that kept that BABIP number from being even lower was his great speed.

Unless he dramatically improves his approach at the plate, he's going to max out as a .700 OPS guy. Now, a .700 OPS shortstop with elite defense is still a plus WAR player, but not close to a star.


Am I being too optimistic thinking he could make a Gomez like jump? Obviously, not the power numbers. But the guy was a 3.2 WAR player at age 23, something Gomez didn't do until he was 27.


Sure, it's possible, but I wouldn't bank on it. That 3.2 WAR number in 2013 looks pretty fluky at the moment. His most likely scenario is a .700 OPS elite defending shortstop. Good, but not great.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#27 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:56 pm

.700 OPS with elite defense would put him at Alcides Escobar territory, maybe with a few fewer steals. I would take that.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#28 » by jr lucosa » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:56 pm

I'm still a fan of Segura but I do agree with Siefer, he has such an awful approach at the plate and seems so lost up there, you could almost pencil him in for getting on top of the ball and grounding out up the middle 2 to 3 times a game. I'm not the kind of person who thinks everybody on the team has to be a .750+ OPS guy though (just look at the Royals), if he can improve his approach at the plate a little bit and not be giving away at bats I think he can be a pretty valuable player.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#29 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Oct 17, 2014 4:02 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:I think Segura could be like Gomez. Some patience can be learned. He's got all the tools. It's not surprising at his age that he's struggling with patience at the plate. He just needs to get out of the bottom 10% in all of MLB when it comes to patience. He doesn't have to be Joey Votto to make a huge leap.

I also think they have to go for it next season. You can't sell a rebuild by trading guys like Lohse, Gallardo, and Ramirez. That's not even half-assed; it's quarter-assed at best. So then you have to trade Lucroy and Gomez, but there's no reason to do that now. Their trade value is very unlikely to go down this year, so why not make one more run at it?

Here are some guys I would target:

Zobrist
Joyce
Dejesus
Loney
LaRoche
Rollins
Morneau
Ike Davis
Seth Smith

I don't think it would take that much to get any of them, and none of them have long-term deals. I want to see them get more depth and have some more left-handed bats. More importantly, for once I want them to have a respectable starter at every position.

My most controversial position is going to be trading Davis, Scooter, and Nelson. They aren't cornerstone talents, and the Brewers don't have a future where they're going to need supporting-cast talent like them. I place a premium on the value of contending next year, and that trumps 5 years of solid but unspectacular cheap production on a team that's going nowhere.


Seth Smith signed an extension with San Diego. I would still avoid Rollins and Zobrist. I wouldn't hate to have Zobrist but I think you can get a much, much cheaper alternative that simply bats lefty to platoon around the field. Double down on Kelly Johnson and another extremely cheap lefty utility man.

Zobrist's WAR isn't extremely useful anywhere for us. Outfield? He his splits last year were similar to Davis. He struggled against righties last year. 2B? We know that we already have a decent platoon there. SS? Sure, he'll be a much better hitter than Segura but his defensive skills will start to deteriorate there at age 34.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#30 » by PANDEMONEUM » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:43 pm

having a guy that can play both SS and 2B is a MUST
it helps if theres an injury
if 1 of the starters is in a slump
and if the bench guy just is having a better year, then becomes the starter
Segura and Gennett are not tops at their position
so finding someone at their level shouldnt be that hard
it will also be an improvement over Weeks/Herrera/everyone else we used

*
hells yes for Zobrist

would like Morneau
and I would keep Reynolds

zobrist, gomez, braun, aramis, lucroy, morneau, davis, segura
-parra, gennett, reynolds, maldonado
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#31 » by trwi7 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:18 pm

That team is so old.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#32 » by DH34Phan » Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:12 am

Segura getting hit in the head with a bat probably didn't help much either. Concussions in baseball can cost players months. Another reason to hate Braun.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#33 » by trwi7 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:49 pm

DH34Phan wrote:Segura getting hit in the head with a bat probably didn't help much either. Concussions in baseball can cost players months. Another reason to hate Braun.


You're an idiot. Segura hit like **** before that and he hit like **** after.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#34 » by humanrefutation » Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:08 pm

Let's go get Joe Maddon.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#35 » by ReasonablySober » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:27 pm

He's gonna be heading to the Cubs.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#36 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:50 pm

humanrefutation wrote:Let's go get Joe Maddon.


Maddon seems to have listened to Friedman in a lot of lineups and such, but I don't see how this team will be fixed without a new team make-up. Hell, RRR learned in the Soscia/Maddon tree.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#37 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:19 pm

Brewers claimed a warm body for a corner spot next season:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/adammccalvy/status/526873072226562049[/tweet]
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#38 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:48 pm

Gallardo option = picked up.
Weeks option = not picked up.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#39 » by coolhandluke121 » Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:27 pm

Laroche's option declined by the Nats.
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Re: Offseason thread 

Post#40 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:48 pm

I'd pick up LaRoche. His age concerns me a little bit, but he would be a great pickup at 1B.

I'd like to go out and get a lot of lefties with versatility. Jed Lowrie (switch hitter), Kelly Johnson (actually somewhat neutral splits but could always bounce back), and see if the Dodgers will pay 80% of Andre Ethier's contract in return for nothing if you don't get LaRoche.

I wouldn't be celebrating in the streets with an offseason like that, but you can actually mix and match good lineups in there. Not sure if we bring A-Ram back. Potentially spend some money on another arm to put in the mix, though the rotation may be full.

vs. LHP
1. Gomez - CF
2. Lowrie - 2B
3. Braun - RF
4. Ramirez (?) - 3B
5. Lucroy - C
6. Davis - LF
7. Jimenez - 1B
8. Segura - SS

vs. RHP
1. Gomez - CF (Parra mixed in a bit)
2. Gennett - 2B
3. Braun - RF
4. Lucroy - C
5. Ethier or LaRoche - 1B
6. Kelly Johnson or Aramis depending on if Aramis is kept - 3B
7. Parra - LF
8. Lowrie - SS with Segura mixed in a bit


Long story short, you get some versatility. I also realize Ethier may just suck now off the juice but if the Dodgers said "we'll pay the next 3 years and you pay the last year's 20 million" or something like that, I'd consider it as he could be a good buy low (if most of the money is paid off) candidate that can play corner OF and was learning to play 1B. Get some versatility with Kelly Johnson or Lowrie to match platoons.

Other options that are more expensive are Stephen Drew and Zobrist. I worry about Zobrist's age and what it would cost to trade for him and Drew is probably too expensive and we seem like we are still tied to Segura playing SS regularly.

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