2015-16 Off Season Thread -Stearns: "We aren't tanking" PG 17

[wichmae]

I think Segura has plenty of value. Controllable SS with plus defense and shown ability to hit. Now you wont get a haul for him but I think you get a manageable return. Lind, Luc, Segura, and Davis should all be traded for best possible prospect returns. Garza hopefully is shopped with Braun. Maybe you get someone to bite or maybe not. The 4 previos mentioned guys should all have their value maximized while you can. Maybe even add Will Smith and Scooter to that list too.

[Kerb Hohl]

I think the goodwill BABIP season for Segura is a bit lost now. It's true that he's kinda league average at SS in various facets, so somebody may want him and would try to work for some more patience maybe.

Agree with the rest...I think the hope is just to get Garza to soak up some innings this year and if he creates any sort of value, trade him.
No bad situation with him on the roster (unless he throws a mutiny on the clubhouse or something).
-He gets hurt and the vesting option for 2018 waves goodbye. He's either dead money or just a guy to soak up innings on a rebuilding 2017 team.
-He starts to pitch well again. Trade him (may still have to eat a few bucks, but fine).
-He is a spectacular failure. Hello higher draft pick.
-Worst case scenario is that he's just "OK" I guess for the next 2 years and the option vests. Oh well - he's the only dead money on a nuked payroll when you want to start competing again in 2018.

[bdpecore]

"Closers" are **** hilarious. What a joke of a job the vast majority of the baseball community has done in evaluating their importance and appropriate compensation over the last 50 years.

Brewers have gone through the share. Kolb, Plesace, Fetters, Turnbow, Axford, Hoffman, Gagne, Broxton, K-Rod, Henry... just goes to show the randomness of it. Until the market corrects itself, you should trade every reliever you ever have as soon as he gets identified as a "closer".

ETA: How could I forgot Wickman?

You forgot my favorite: Saloman Torres.

[bdpecore]

Now is the time to trade Lucroy, I wouldn't risk him getting injured during the season. I'm guessing Lucroy and Lind are the only big leaguers we will trade before spring.. Anyon else? I don't think Segura goes, he has little value.

I'm a huge advocate of trading Davis and Smith. I think sending both to Toronto could return a package of Pentecost, Tellez, Hollen and Perdomo. The headliner being Pentecost who albeit coming off of surgery, would project as our future starting catcher come 2018 or 19. Tellez projects to be a slightly above average 1B and the other two are high ceiling arms with significant flaws.

[Kerb Hohl]

Nelson is the dividing line on the rebuild. I think it's going to take longer (simply because the division is really good). Nelson is under control through 2020, which seems silly to discuss as too early of control and to consider trading.

Nelson is probably the only current MLB pitcher that matters to us. Davies probably will slot in as a nice #5 guy going forward and Jungmann could be something but seems likely to be AAAA fodder. Lopez, of course, is a big piece going forward.

Back to Nelson...the assumption is that the Brewers will be waking up out of their slumber a bit in 2018 and maybe could consider the playoffs in 2019 if everything is going right. If we're on that schedule, I'd consider trading Nelson in 2017 or so. The Astros dealt Bud Norris, which seemed silly, since he looked like a decent mid-rotation piece, but they ended up getting Hader and others. If we're on the schedule of being decent in 2018 and contending in 2019...I'd rather trade Nelson and get another guy in the pipeline.

A long way to go on that, of course. Anyone else with a contract/control ending before then either needs to be extended if they're very young or traded at highest value.

[coolhandluke121]

Nelson is the dividing line on the rebuild.

Definitely. Guys like Davis and Peralta should be no-brainers if you get a good offer. This is going to have to be a thorough rebuild, and you don't want to waste their primes paying them $5-10m per year for nothing.

I would strongly consider trading Nelson, too. It's getting like the NBA, where you have to out-rebuild (read: out-tank) everyone in order to get ahead in the long run. Now that it's conventional wisdom that you have to tank a little, it's not enough to just make the obvious rebuilding moves. Whether it's the NBA or MLB, the equilibrium has shifted to the point where you don't just trade 30-year-olds when you're rebuilding; you have to strongly consider trading some youngish players, too, so that you can stockpile a cohort that will be ready to contend in about 5 years.

[trwi7]

"Closers" are **** hilarious. What a joke of a job the vast majority of the baseball community has done in evaluating their importance and appropriate compensation over the last 50 years.

Brewers have gone through the share. Kolb, Plesace, Fetters, Turnbow, Axford, Hoffman, Gagne, Broxton, K-Rod, Henry... just goes to show the randomness of it. Until the market corrects itself, you should trade every reliever you ever have as soon as he gets identified as a "closer".

ETA: How could I forgot Wickman?

You forgot my favorite: Saloman Torres.

Which is the most amazing thing of all because he got closing opportunities before coming here and was deemed a "choker" who "couldn't handle the pressure" of being a closer.

[LUKE23]

Yep, I'd trade everyone that has value, but is not a superstar that will be a core guy once the team is hopefully good again. Davis should be gone. We are loaded at OF with higher ceiling talent. Any relievers that are only 2-3 years of control should be gone. Segura/Gennett? See ya.

[bdpecore]

One thing no one has mentioned is the fact Phillips might not stick in CF and have to move to a corner spot. Since we traded for Phillips, Taylor has been an afterthought but might very well end up being our future CF for the next half decade. Phillips, Taylor and Santana would be a very good defensive group and all project to provide solid offensive production. Not saying it will happen but Taylor still needs to be considered as a future piece to build around since he is ranked #4 in a pretty stacked farm system.

[mlloyd10]

Gallo/Jackson for Davis/Peralta

[Kerb Hohl]

Gallo/Jackson for Davis/Peralta

I know you just posted this on Brewerfan, but that's not even close to fair. Wily Peralta is nearly a throwaway player at this point and Khris Davis is a nice offensive player that is older and not a great defender. The Brewers probably have to throw in Arcia or Lucroy if they want to get Gallo. You're talking a top 10 prospect for a fringe-MLB pitcher and a flawed OF.

[bdpecore]

The only players who could net Gallo would be Lucroy or Arcia. Davis could net you a top 100 prospect but adding Peralta actually will decrease the return.

[El Duderino]

Nelson is the dividing line on the rebuild. I think it's going to take longer (simply because the division is really good). Nelson is under control through 2020, which seems silly to discuss as too early of control and to consider trading.

Nelson is probably the only current MLB pitcher that matters to us. Davies probably will slot in as a nice #5 guy going forward and Jungmann could be something but seems likely to be AAAA fodder. Lopez, of course, is a big piece going forward.

Back to Nelson...the assumption is that the Brewers will be waking up out of their slumber a bit in 2018 and maybe could consider the playoffs in 2019 if everything is going right. If we're on that schedule, I'd consider trading Nelson in 2017 or so. The Astros dealt Bud Norris, which seemed silly, since he looked like a decent mid-rotation piece, but they ended up getting Hader and others. If we're on the schedule of being decent in 2018 and contending in 2019...I'd rather trade Nelson and get another guy in the pipeline.

A long way to go on that, of course. Anyone else with a contract/control ending before then either needs to be extended if they're very young or traded at highest value.

I don't know what degree of authority Attanasio gave Stearns when the hire was made, but if hypothetically he is allowed to make pretty much any trade he wants to make excluding taking on huge contracts, Stearns strikes me as someone who will be open to trading just about anyone if he feels the offer makes sense.

Now that the team is in a place to where competing for a playoff berth next year isn't realistic at all and there is a completely different GM in charge, my gut feeling is that Attanasio is finally in a place where he no longer will be as inclined to insert himself so much into roster construction and instead mostly just let his new GM rebuild how he sees fit.

How exactly Stearns goes how overhauling roster over the next few years will be so interesting to watch because i think he'll be open to doing things which Melvin likely wouldn't have, especially when Attanasio was pushing his win now narrative each season. That includes players like Lucroy, Peralta, and Nelson who i don't think Melvin would consider much trying to shop.

[bdpecore]

Nelson is the dividing line on the rebuild. I think it's going to take longer (simply because the division is really good). Nelson is under control through 2020, which seems silly to discuss as too early of control and to consider trading.

Nelson is probably the only current MLB pitcher that matters to us. Davies probably will slot in as a nice #5 guy going forward and Jungmann could be something but seems likely to be AAAA fodder. Lopez, of course, is a big piece going forward.

Back to Nelson...the assumption is that the Brewers will be waking up out of their slumber a bit in 2018 and maybe could consider the playoffs in 2019 if everything is going right. If we're on that schedule, I'd consider trading Nelson in 2017 or so. The Astros dealt Bud Norris, which seemed silly, since he looked like a decent mid-rotation piece, but they ended up getting Hader and others. If we're on the schedule of being decent in 2018 and contending in 2019...I'd rather trade Nelson and get another guy in the pipeline.

A long way to go on that, of course. Anyone else with a contract/control ending before then either needs to be extended if they're very young or traded at highest value.

I don't know what degree of authority Attanasio gave Stearns when the hire was made, but if hypothetically he is allowed to make pretty much any trade he wants to make excluding taking on huge contracts, Stearns strikes me as someone who will be open to trading just about anyone if he feels the offer makes sense.

Now that the team is in a place to where competing for a playoff berth next year isn't realistic at all and there is a completely different GM in charge, my gut feeling is that Attanasio is finally in a place where he no longer will be as inclined to insert himself so much into roster construction and instead mostly just let his new GM rebuild how he sees fit.

How exactly Stearns goes how overhauling roster over the next few years will be so interesting to watch because i think he'll be open to doing things which Melvin likely wouldn't have, especially when Attanasio was pushing his win now narrative each season. That includes players like Lucroy, Peralta, and Nelson who i don't think Melvin would consider much trying to shop.

I would include Davis, Braun, Smith, Segura and Gennett as players who Streans would be willing to trade away if the offer was right.

[mlloyd10]

Gallo/Jackson for Davis/Peralta

I know you just posted this on Brewerfan, but that's not even close to fair. Wily Peralta is nearly a throwaway player at this point and Khris Davis is a nice offensive player that is older and not a great defender. The Brewers probably have to throw in Arcia or Lucroy if they want to get Gallo. You're talking a top 10 prospect for a fringe-MLB pitcher and a flawed OF.

Im coming to that realization - LuCroy/Garza for Gallo/Jackson

[bdpecore]

Gallo/Jackson for Davis/Peralta

I know you just posted this on Brewerfan, but that's not even close to fair. Wily Peralta is nearly a throwaway player at this point and Khris Davis is a nice offensive player that is older and not a great defender. The Brewers probably have to throw in Arcia or Lucroy if they want to get Gallo. You're talking a top 10 prospect for a fringe-MLB pitcher and a flawed OF.

Im coming to that realization - LuCroy/Garza for Gallo/Jackson

Adding Garza would only reduce the haul we could get for Lucroy.

[mlloyd10]

I know you just posted this on Brewerfan, but that's not even close to fair. Wily Peralta is nearly a throwaway player at this point and Khris Davis is a nice offensive player that is older and not a great defender. The Brewers probably have to throw in Arcia or Lucroy if they want to get Gallo. You're talking a top 10 prospect for a fringe-MLB pitcher and a flawed OF.

Im coming to that realization - LuCroy/Garza for Gallo/Jackson

Adding Garza would only reduce the haul we could get for Lucroy.

I know, trying to make them take Garza

[Kerb Hohl]

I'd love to give away Garza, but in a sense I'd rather him be on the roster this year.

1. He's probably a tank candidate if he keeps sucking...which is a good thing right now.
2. If thrown into a trade, he is very likely going to be negative value.
3. He's the only big contract other than Braun remaining. They can afford to let him rot for awhile.
4. He has a chance to increase his value. Maybe by mid-season he's back and we can get a moderately good prospect for him or at least he's a neutral value throw-in.

[bdpecore]

Im coming to that realization - LuCroy/Garza for Gallo/Jackson

Adding Garza would only reduce the haul we could get for Lucroy.

I know, trying to make them take Garza

Why? Even with his contract on their books the Brewers are looking at a $70MM payroll the next two seasons. There is no need in decreasing our return for Lucroy just to get our payroll below $60MM. We need more top flight prospects if we plan to compete come 2018-19.

[Kerb Hohl]

Adding Garza would only reduce the haul we could get for Lucroy.

I know, trying to make them take Garza

Why? Even with his contract on their books the Brewers are looking at a $70MM payroll the next two seasons. There is no need in decreasing our return for Lucroy just to get our payroll below $60MM. We need more top flight prospects if we plan to compete come 2018-19.

Similar to my point and agree - but also to add...I know that they're going to add a few "tide us over" vets and/or buy low guys, but they may even dip below $60 million without dealing Garza.

If they essentially only bring in prospects for Luc and Lind, they'll be at $33 million plus arby 1 for Segura, Villar, Will Smith...that might get them up to $40. Throw in $500K for he rest of their roster and you're at $50. Just thinking out loud here and they'll probably sit around $60 even with Garza. I'd love it if they ramped it up to $70 with buy low players.