Kerb Hohl wrote:Combining a few of the recent topics of "salary relief" for Braun and Nelson, Peralta, etc. - I think the Brewers may have to make their Jon Lester-type signing to springboard the actual winning process of this rebuild. I'm not sure the Brewers can afford or attract somebody of that magnitude, but I think that is what will be necessary.
I am confident that Hader will be a #2-type and that Davies will probably rebound and still be the #5 guy if we want him there for the next few years. Beyond that, I've got nothing. The prospect-ites will probably yell at me for not talking up Woodruff or Lopez (star is fading a bit) and we have Ortiz, Bickford, Diplan...but we're going to have to overpay for pitching via free agency or via a mega trade.
Sorry if I sound like a simpleton on our minor league players, but the hype on Woodruff is what I remember about Lopez and Nelson. Somewhat unheralded pitcher is lighting up the minors and is coveted by fans only to not really be that good in the majors. Bickford, Ortiz, Diplan are all quite young and may be more likely to come up and fill out the rotation in the 2020 or later range and like any pitcher could fizzle out on their way up.
I'm sure I'll be wrong and one of these guys will be a great rotation piece. I do think that Woodruff has a pretty solid to be at least an MLB rotation guy even if my pessimism holds true, but we're going to probably still have to overpay for some pitching soon.
Sometimes a team just needs some luck to go their way when it comes to starting pitching.
You bring up Lester. The Cubs also struck gold with Arrieta and Hendricks. I'm sure when they traded for Arrieta, they had to think there was something better there than his bad performance with Baltimore, but no way could Theo have expected Arrieta to turn around and become a CY Young caliber starter. When he traded for Hendricks, Theo clearly liked him enough to acquire him, but i really doubt Theo was expecting Hendricks to turn out being this good.
Being a GM in pro sports obviously requires that guy to be skilled at his job, but often a GM also needs some luck along the way while building a really good team and especially when it comes to starting pitching in baseball where injuries are so common.
The Brewers organization finally has a number of intriguing arms in the various levels of the minors, but how they'll perform when/if they actually reach the major is so hard to predict. And even if some do become quality starting pitchers, it can easily vary on how quick it happens from right away to struggling for a year or two before finally putting things together.
That's why Theo tended to draft mostly positions players with his higher draft picks. He saw them as easier to project and predict.