ImageImage

2017 Trade Rumors Thread

Moderators: paulpressey25, MickeyDavis

books
Veteran
Posts: 2,655
And1: 182
Joined: Jan 26, 2008
     

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#21 » by books » Mon May 15, 2017 6:49 pm

The CC Sabathia trade was a grand-slam trade. The WS would have been very realistic that year if Sheets could have stayed healthy for the end of the season.

Have no problem with the Brewers making a trade or two for some pitchers if they're still a top-3 wild card team in mid-July.
wichmae
RealGM
Posts: 15,466
And1: 710
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: Milwaukee

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#22 » by wichmae » Mon May 15, 2017 6:53 pm

I think the issues people are mostly referencing is surrendering draft selections in Suppan and Garza. Then on top of that before this last CBA kicked in we never paid the tax to draft and sign the higher tier guys. The significant majority of our cash was funneled into the MLB team with very little focus on sustained success onvce the MLB team hit FA or age regression. SOmething I think Mark A has learned over time. You have to have guys coming up and somewhat ready to contribute. Otherwise once injury or FA or age hits you have an awful team with no future to look forward too.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#23 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 6:56 pm

The Royals are the one other example (and maybe the Pirates, but they've been boned by a tough division and impossible WC matchups) of small market teams with loaded farm systems the past decade.

The Royals did kick it all off by trading away Greinke, which I guess the Brewers could have traded Sheets (not comparable given injury history and value)...but, the Royals traded young players for one year of Shields (and Wade Davis unexpectedly came out of that), traded for Cueto, traded for Zobrist, started Kendry Morales, the garbage heap of Omar Infante and Alex Rios, and other "buy" moves. They overpaid for Edinson Volquez.

Point of it all is that almost all teams end up overpaying for vets. The Royals lucked out in the playoffs and got a World Series for it and just like the Brewers I doubt they'd be churning out 95 win teams right now if they didn't trade away Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea for Zobrist and Cueto...Their window is probably even shorter because I don't think that half of these guys have great trade value or shelf life. I guess they'd have Odorizzi and Wil Myers but it took forever for Myers to actually even get going.
wichmae
RealGM
Posts: 15,466
And1: 710
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: Milwaukee

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#24 » by wichmae » Mon May 15, 2017 6:58 pm

Its basically the reason we lost Nashville as an affiliate.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#25 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 7:03 pm

wichmae wrote:I think the issues people are mostly referencing is surrendering draft selections in Suppan and Garza. Then on top of that before this last CBA kicked in we never paid the tax to draft and sign the higher tier guys. The significant majority of our cash was funneled into the MLB team with very little focus on sustained success onvce the MLB team hit FA or age regression. SOmething I think Mark A has learned over time. You have to have guys coming up and somewhat ready to contribute. Otherwise once injury or FA or age hits you have an awful team with no future to look forward too.


I think some of that would have helped some of those iffy years like 2012 or 2014 for sure. I think it is a bit of an either-or thing, though, and the Brewers opted to go with the $100 million dollar payroll instead of maybe $80 and filling out their minors system a bit more.

I think that they're going to overspend in some international markets and they're filling out the farm depth nicely right now, but I hope you guys are ready for some overpriced pitching signings. They're probably coming. I like what we have in the minors but I wouldn't be surprised if we only end up with 2 good MLB starters and some fringe MLB starters out of the bunch.
wichmae
RealGM
Posts: 15,466
And1: 710
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: Milwaukee

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#26 » by wichmae » Mon May 15, 2017 7:06 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
wichmae wrote:I think the issues people are mostly referencing is surrendering draft selections in Suppan and Garza. Then on top of that before this last CBA kicked in we never paid the tax to draft and sign the higher tier guys. The significant majority of our cash was funneled into the MLB team with very little focus on sustained success onvce the MLB team hit FA or age regression. SOmething I think Mark A has learned over time. You have to have guys coming up and somewhat ready to contribute. Otherwise once injury or FA or age hits you have an awful team with no future to look forward too.


I think some of that would have helped some of those iffy years like 2012 or 2014 for sure. I think it is a bit of an either-or thing, though, and the Brewers opted to go with the $100 million dollar payroll instead of maybe $80 and filling out their minors system a bit more.

I think that they're going to overspend in some international markets and they're filling out the farm depth nicely right now, but I hope you guys are ready for some overpriced pitching signings. They're probably coming. I like what we have in the minors but I wouldn't be surprised if we only end up with 2 good MLB starters and some fringe MLB starters out of the bunch.

I am entirely fine signing guys as long as the dont have a comp pick attached. Thats exactly how we got into this miss. Poor management of the minor leagues had made the outlook of this team very grim.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#27 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 7:13 pm

wichmae wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
wichmae wrote:I think the issues people are mostly referencing is surrendering draft selections in Suppan and Garza. Then on top of that before this last CBA kicked in we never paid the tax to draft and sign the higher tier guys. The significant majority of our cash was funneled into the MLB team with very little focus on sustained success onvce the MLB team hit FA or age regression. SOmething I think Mark A has learned over time. You have to have guys coming up and somewhat ready to contribute. Otherwise once injury or FA or age hits you have an awful team with no future to look forward too.


I think some of that would have helped some of those iffy years like 2012 or 2014 for sure. I think it is a bit of an either-or thing, though, and the Brewers opted to go with the $100 million dollar payroll instead of maybe $80 and filling out their minors system a bit more.

I think that they're going to overspend in some international markets and they're filling out the farm depth nicely right now, but I hope you guys are ready for some overpriced pitching signings. They're probably coming. I like what we have in the minors but I wouldn't be surprised if we only end up with 2 good MLB starters and some fringe MLB starters out of the bunch.

I am entirely fine signing guys as long as the dont have a comp pick attached. Thats exactly how we got into this miss. Poor management of the minor leagues had made the outlook of this team very grim.


I am totally in favor of the Rays/A's approach (with hopefully a bit more $ out of Mark's pockets) but I think there is a bit of a mountain being made out of a mole hill with a few comp picks or some of the prospects being dealt. It's a stupid practice to continually burn through prospects and comp picks, but as we sit here 5 years after Lohse signing, I think the Brewers, while it would be great to have the 17th pick from the 2013 draft, would not have any extra playoff wins in the past from it and while not insignificant, we'll survive going forward.

CHL is talking about how badly Mark A botched the plethora of prospects we had coming up. I don't think the comp pick being lost in signing Lohse plays into that too much. Hell, we should have gotten a comp pick for losing CC if not for that stupid loophole where the Yankees didn't have to give up as much because they signed Teixeira and he was rated higher.

BTW, I think only Lohse cost a comp pick. Garza did not. Not sure about Suppan.
wichmae
RealGM
Posts: 15,466
And1: 710
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: Milwaukee

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#28 » by wichmae » Mon May 15, 2017 7:33 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
wichmae wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
I think some of that would have helped some of those iffy years like 2012 or 2014 for sure. I think it is a bit of an either-or thing, though, and the Brewers opted to go with the $100 million dollar payroll instead of maybe $80 and filling out their minors system a bit more.

I think that they're going to overspend in some international markets and they're filling out the farm depth nicely right now, but I hope you guys are ready for some overpriced pitching signings. They're probably coming. I like what we have in the minors but I wouldn't be surprised if we only end up with 2 good MLB starters and some fringe MLB starters out of the bunch.

I am entirely fine signing guys as long as the dont have a comp pick attached. Thats exactly how we got into this miss. Poor management of the minor leagues had made the outlook of this team very grim.


I am totally in favor of the Rays/A's approach (with hopefully a bit more $ out of Mark's pockets) but I think there is a bit of a mountain being made out of a mole hill with a few comp picks or some of the prospects being dealt. It's a stupid practice to continually burn through prospects and comp picks, but as we sit here 5 years after Lohse signing, I think the Brewers, while it would be great to have the 17th pick from the 2013 draft, would not have any extra playoff wins in the past from it and while not insignificant, we'll survive going forward.

CHL is talking about how badly Mark A botched the plethora of prospects we had coming up. I don't think the comp pick being lost in signing Lohse plays into that too much. Hell, we should have gotten a comp pick for losing CC if not for that stupid loophole where the Yankees didn't have to give up as much because they signed Teixeira and he was rated higher.

BTW, I think only Lohse cost a comp pick. Garza did not. Not sure about Suppan.

Suppan did cost us a comp pick but in 2007 it was somewhat different but yeah youre right I somehow thought Garza cost one but he was traded in season at the deadline so its moot. Like Ive said before in my previous posts I think Mark has learned from his mismanagement and wont go back down that road. Its entirely too important to have the currency of young controllable cheap talent and the cost of acquiring that talent should never be sacrificed for middling returns. Thames being the exception to this point but I dont think a FA acquisition has really ever worked out for Mark.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#29 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 7:44 pm

wichmae wrote:Thames being the exception to this point but I dont think a FA acquisition has really ever worked out for Mark.


Cameron was very good (4 WAR two years in a row), even though Aramis didn't ever play in the playoffs, he was a 5.6 WAR (career high) his first season with the Brewers, there had to be 4 or 5 good relief pitching signings, Lohse was decent for 2 years, Wolf was fine for a few years, hell, even Garza may end up being OK in the end. Aoki was not terrible and that helped down the road in trades.

I think the timing could be questioned on a few of them, but are there really many FAs that didn't work out for Mark? Gagne was a burned one year risk and we remember the downfall/final year of Aramis, Lohse, Garza but they were all decent value for their price tag.

I know it sounds crazy to say Lohse was good value, and maybe he wasn't for the burned comp pick, but they're paying for mid-price pitching and they got mid-price or maybe slightly better results. In the grand scheme of thing, was signing them worth it? I don't know...I think they should have tried to rebuild in that 2012-2013 timeframe but that's not necessarily the initial argument. I also think that Mark expected more help to be in the pipeline by the time 2015 or so rolled around and he'd keep trying to win with Braun in the meantime.
wichmae
RealGM
Posts: 15,466
And1: 710
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: Milwaukee

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#30 » by wichmae » Mon May 15, 2017 8:40 pm

Ill give you Aramis and Cameron. Im more referencing the other massive flops. Riske, Suppan, Kendall, Yuni, Doug Davis (the return), Lohse was good for 1/3 of his contract and Garza basically has been bad for his entire deal. Aoki netted us Will Smith but was still an older part time kind of player. Almost everything else didnt work. They forced too much and it burnt them. They were slightly better than mediocre and its a tough position to be in. you dont bottom out and get draft slotting and you dont ever really contend. You just compound that by mis-spending money by ignoring the international market, or going after high sign draftees. Then also add the comp pick issue and you see where im coming from. IM glad were at the point where realizing the value of a strong farm system isnt lost on the management.
User avatar
trwi7
RealGM
Posts: 97,913
And1: 11,392
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
Location: Aussie bias
         

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#31 » by trwi7 » Mon May 15, 2017 8:41 pm

The Rays/A's before they both went **** insane) is exactly the approach we should be taking but the difference is we have more money to sign our own guys if they're willing.

Maybe take 1 year fliers but stay the **** away from the long term contracts to mediocre players that might work for a year or two but end up with us releasing the player before the contract is up because they got old and terrible over the offseason.
stellation wrote:"What's the difference between Gery Woelful and this glass of mineral water? The mineral water actually has a source."


I Hate Manure wrote:We look to be awful next season without Beasley.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#32 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 8:43 pm

Circling it all back around to this year, it's going to be very interesting to see what we do this year and in the offseason. Perez, Santana, Broxton, Shaw (maybe), Villar, and some of the pitchers will soon be blocking supposedly better prospects.

We might be in the mix for a Wild Card this year. I doubt we buy but I wonder if we sell or if anything will even be worth it. If not, what do you do with some of these guys that are clearly MLB caliber players but you have supposed better players waiting behind them? The obvious answer is to trade them for more pitching, but it may not be so simple.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#33 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 8:45 pm

wichmae wrote:Ill give you Aramis and Cameron. Im more referencing the other massive flops. Riske, Suppan, Kendall, Yuni, Doug Davis (the return), Lohse was good for 1/3 of his contract and Garza basically has been bad for his entire deal. Aoki netted us Will Smith but was still an older part time kind of player. Almost everything else didnt work. They forced too much and it burnt them. They were slightly better than mediocre and its a tough position to be in. you dont bottom out and get draft slotting and you dont ever really contend. You just compound that by mis-spending money by ignoring the international market, or going after high sign draftees. Then also add the comp pick issue and you see where im coming from. IM glad were at the point where realizing the value of a strong farm system isnt lost on the management.


I know people see the big $ amounts on the contract and hope for several All Star games...and we should get that out of some of the big $ deals, but it's been calculated to $8 million/WAR recently for a free agent contract. A lot of those pitchers, even with injury/**** seasons have hit that number.

The bolded list of players other than Suppan were all pretty low-risk signings. The biggest problem was that they kept leaving Yuni on the team. Kendall didn't cost a ton, but yeah, I didn't agree with having him as our catcher in the first place. But the guys in your list would be like complaining about Feliz being a flop this year. These guys were like less than 1/20th of the team payroll.

The funny thing is that I think the Garza deal was one that even most people who are completely averse to signing FAs were somewhat good with. The value seemed to be there. He was actually a good pitcher and he wouldn't be going too far past his prime.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#34 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 8:48 pm

trwi7 wrote:The Rays/A's before they both went **** insane) is exactly the approach we should be taking but the difference is we have more money to sign our own guys if they're willing.

Maybe take 1 year fliers but stay the **** away from the long term contracts to mediocre players that might work for a year or two but end up with us releasing the player before the contract is up because they got old and terrible over the offseason.


OK, so where is all of this elite pitching going to come from? *Steps back to listen to twirly hoping to tank 4 more years and draft them all in the 1st round.*

I think the early 2000s A's and the Rays window starting a decade ago never won a title due to some bad luck...but has there been a World Series winner that didn't overpay for some vets or wasn't just a big market team overall? Maybe one of the Marlins teams?
User avatar
trwi7
RealGM
Posts: 97,913
And1: 11,392
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
Location: Aussie bias
         

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#35 » by trwi7 » Mon May 15, 2017 9:02 pm

What the **** are you rambling about?
stellation wrote:"What's the difference between Gery Woelful and this glass of mineral water? The mineral water actually has a source."


I Hate Manure wrote:We look to be awful next season without Beasley.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#36 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 9:08 pm

trwi7 wrote:What the **** are you rambling about?


Where will the Brewers get elite or very good pitching to have a 5-10 year window of contention without us having to wait another 5 years?
User avatar
El Duderino
RealGM
Posts: 19,571
And1: 966
Joined: May 30, 2005
Location: Working on pad level

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#37 » by El Duderino » Mon May 15, 2017 9:12 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
trwi7 wrote:The Rays/A's before they both went **** insane) is exactly the approach we should be taking but the difference is we have more money to sign our own guys if they're willing.

Maybe take 1 year fliers but stay the **** away from the long term contracts to mediocre players that might work for a year or two but end up with us releasing the player before the contract is up because they got old and terrible over the offseason.


OK, so where is all of this elite pitching going to come from? *Steps back to listen to twirly hoping to tank 4 more years and draft them all in the 1st round.*

I think the early 2000s A's and the Rays window starting a decade ago never won a title due to some bad luck...but has there been a World Series winner that didn't overpay for some vets or wasn't just a big market team overall? Maybe one of the Marlins teams?


For all of the credit Beane got for Moneyball and being early on OBP, it was his drafting of Mulder, Hudson, and Zito which fueled that run of success more than anything. He was great at evaluating pitching and basically had three young aces fronting a rotation who all stayed healthy.

The Brewers are stocked with position players between the big league roster and the minors. The key for Stearns will be if he and his draft scouts can draft and develop pitching, something neither Jack Z and Seid could do at all.That and if when Stearns trades for pitching, does he make good evaluations.

Gotta have some luck also given young pitchers health is so volatile and whether they can go from minor league success to big league success tends to be more unpredictable than position players are. Hell, just look at the Mets. All that high end young pitching and a short time later they sit this year with the worst starting pitching ERA in the NL.
User avatar
El Duderino
RealGM
Posts: 19,571
And1: 966
Joined: May 30, 2005
Location: Working on pad level

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#38 » by El Duderino » Mon May 15, 2017 9:24 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
trwi7 wrote:What the **** are you rambling about?


Where will the Brewers get elite or very good pitching to have a 5-10 year window of contention without us having to wait another 5 years?


They'll have to finally draft/develop it, something this organization has failed miserably to do for decades..

Trade for pitching prospects which the team then hopes pan out, like Hader and Ortiz for example.

Maybe catch a break or two like Theo did with Arrieta and Hendricks.

Pray that young pitching prospects both stay healthy and can translate minor league success into big league success.

Some combination of the above. Easier said than done though.
User avatar
tski1972
Analyst
Posts: 3,233
And1: 1,503
Joined: May 24, 2011
Location: Wow-saw, WI
Contact:
     

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#39 » by tski1972 » Mon May 15, 2017 9:25 pm

just checking that this is indeed the trade rumors thread.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,628
And1: 802
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: 2017 Trade Rumors Thread 

Post#40 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon May 15, 2017 9:29 pm

El Duderino wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
trwi7 wrote:What the **** are you rambling about?


Where will the Brewers get elite or very good pitching to have a 5-10 year window of contention without us having to wait another 5 years?


They'll have to finally draft/develop it, something this organization has failed miserably to do for decades..

Trade for pitching prospects which the team then hopes pan out.

Maybe catch a break or two like Theo did with Arrieta and Hendricks.

Pray that young pitching prospects both stay healthy and can translate minor league success into big league success.

Some combination of the above. Easier said than done though.


Sure, those are all options I am hoping for. We're already probably too far into this rebuild to hope for a stud pitcher to come out of the draft for the front half of this next contention window unless it is a very polished college pitcher.

I was responding to twirly saying that we shouldn't go near any big/long contracts. We're not a big market, but the Cubs' rotation outside of Arrieta and Hendricks (and Arrieta is still expensive in arby) cost $50 million dollars last season for 3 pitchers.

We hopefully will trade for more pitching, but I'm not even sure if packaging Brinson and another big prospect will get some Chris Sale-esque prospect to Milwaukee. We could dump half of our prospects into Jose Quintana but half of this board would jump off a bridge.

So, where is it going to come from? I hope Hader, Woodruff, Guerra, and some of the other prospects are all good and can fill a solid rotation. That means we'd just have to fill the #4 or #5 slot with some shorter-term vet deals.

However, if those guys are not really that good...we're going to overpay for some pitching. Whether it is via trade or via free agency.

Return to Milwaukee Brewers