Brewers vs D'Backs: Hader debut and Phillips back

[wichmae]

You don't fluke your way to 57 strikeouts in only 31 innings. That's nearly two strikeouts per inning.

When a guy throws as consistently hard as Knebal does and is commanding his curve, hitters only have a fraction of a second in deciding whether to swing or not. That leads to more swings just outside of the strike zone. All good pitchers rely on hitters swinging at pitchers pitches and getting themselves out, not pitches over the heart of the plate.

I agree to an extent. Knebel does play with fire quite a bit. You cant consistently walk guys and be a dominant closer. Its the Trevor Rosenthal issue.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Is there a more unpredictable/volatile position group in all of sports than relief pitching? Between the tendency to get hurt and the wild up and down swings most of these guys go through I can't think of another example.

I guess maybe NFL kickers where guys just lose it from time to time but even they seem to be more consistent.

That's why it's been wise move for the Brewers to trade every relief arm who wasn't broken over the past 2 years. Cash in while you can.

[El Duderino]

You don't fluke your way to 57 strikeouts in only 31 innings. That's nearly two strikeouts per inning.

When a guy throws as consistently hard as Knebal does and is commanding his curve, hitters only have a fraction of a second in deciding whether to swing or not. That leads to more swings just outside of the strike zone. All good pitchers rely on hitters swinging at pitchers pitches and getting themselves out, not pitches over the heart of the plate.

I agree to an extent. Knebel does play with fire quite a bit. You cant consistently walk guys and be a dominant closer. Its the Trevor Rosenthal issue.

He's not without flaw, but he hasn't just been good, he's been dominant outside of a few exceptions.

I do remember that the 2-out homer he served up the Grandal did come on a 3-1 pitch where Grandal was clearly sitting dead red fastball, but nearly all relievers serve up a gopher ball here and there.

Hopefully Knebal keeps this up, but i've watched baseball long enough to know how volatile relief pitchers can be. Craig Kimbrel types who are great every year are the exception.

[trwi7]

You don't fluke your way to 57 strikeouts in only 31 innings. That's nearly two strikeouts per inning.

When a guy throws as consistently hard as Knebal does and is commanding his curve, hitters only have a fraction of a second in deciding whether to swing or not. That leads to more swings just outside of the strike zone. All good pitchers rely on hitters swinging at pitchers pitches and getting themselves out, not pitches over the heart of the plate.

Players fluke their way into good stats all the time. Villar fluked his way to a .300 batting average most of last year on the back of a nearly .400 BABIP.

I'm not saying Knebel isn't going to strike out guys at a high rate but it's unlikely he continues doing it at 16.5 per 9 innings. I think 10.5-11.5, maybe up to 12.5 is where he'll end up being. That's still great but it's not otherworldly and with some walk problems, having hitters make more contact might drive the ERA up a bit.

[El Duderino]

You don't fluke your way to 57 strikeouts in only 31 innings. That's nearly two strikeouts per inning.

When a guy throws as consistently hard as Knebal does and is commanding his curve, hitters only have a fraction of a second in deciding whether to swing or not. That leads to more swings just outside of the strike zone. All good pitchers rely on hitters swinging at pitchers pitches and getting themselves out, not pitches over the heart of the plate.

Players fluke their way into good stats all the time. Villar fluked his way to a .300 batting average most of last year on the back of a nearly .400 BABIP.

I'm not saying Knebel isn't going to strike out guys at a high rate but it's unlikely he continues doing it at 16.5 per 9 innings. I think 10.5-11.5, maybe up to 12.5 is where he'll end up being. That's still great but it's not otherworldly and with some walk problems, having hitters make more contact might drive the ERA up a bit.

Villar also had 38 doubles, 19 homers, and walked 79 times. He didn't just get a bunch of lucky singles leading to a .285 batting average. As to why he's struggling so badly this year, there is no clear answer. There is a mental aspect to hitting a baseball though which is different from other sports. Sometimes guys let struggles at the plate get in their head and i wouldn't doubt that turning down the extension is a contributing factor. Villar often looks completely lost at the plate.

As for Knebal, plenty of pitchers take some time before putting things together. Look for example at Robbie Ray who the Brewers just faced in Arizona. Or Thornburg last year. Knebal always had the arm. You are correct that it will be hard for him to keep up this insane K rate, but so long as he continues command of his curve, he'll be really hard to hit. That's been huge. Look no further than Feliz to see a hard throwing reliever with zero command of at least one secondary pitch.

[Prickle]

Barnes would have a job but yeah, I'm not sure what people expected when we took on the trash that the Pirates, Orioles and Braves (last year with Torres) didn't want.

If some team is willing to blow us away for Knebel, I'd trade him too.

I'd for sure take a deal for Knebel. I'm just getting that "lightning in a bottle" vibe from him, and fear it won't be sustainable. (See Derrick Turnbow)

You're talking about something being not sustainable after trumpeting Eric Sogard's winning ways for a week?

Yeah, because I totally said that Sogard would be able to sustain his level of play throughout an entire season . My beef was that having the hottest hitter on the team (and maybe the league) for a month straight, sit on the bench in favor of guys who weren't even giving you MLB-caliber at-bats, was maybe not the best strategy for winning games. As I said numerous times.....of course he wouldn't be able to continue to produce at that rate, but why would you not ride a guy while he's on fire? I mean, for a stretch there, he was getting on base almost every time he came to the plate. Then he sat for like 5 games (which the team lost), only to come back and continue getting on base at an alarming rate despite still not being an everyday player.

Using a basketball analogy: It's like having a guy hit 7 three-pointers in the first half, and then benching him in the second half, simply because that quality of play is "unsustainable". Of course no NBA coach would do that (well, maybe Kidd) because they know that they should ride the hot hand for as long as they possibly can.

I never said that Sogard would continue to produce the way he has - that would be impossible. I only said that he should continue to play almost everyday until he finally fell back to earth.