Mavericks Projections 16/17 (ESPN, FiveThirtyEight, Nyloncalculus, Vegas)

[Dirk]

I'd love to hear the reasoning behind how on earth they have Houston having 10 more wins than us. Adding 2 injury prone overpaid players from the Pelicans and one of the worst coaches in the league over the past 10 years?

They have this blurb on the Rockets:

RPM projects the Rockets to be a top-five offense next year, but they'll still struggle to reach 45 wins if their defense is worse than an optimistic projection of 16th in the league.

I edited the opening post to add what they said on the Mavs.

This is also his explanation on how the rankings are made:

Like last season, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed based on the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.

Most veteran players are rated using the multiyear, predictive version of RPM, adjusted for the typical aging curve. Newcomers to the league and players who played too little for an RPM rating are rated using their projected offensive and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, which incorporates translated performance in the NCAA and professional leagues besides the NBA.

For reference, in the other ranking where they asked a pannel of experts, they had the Rockets at 41-41.

[Darren]

It doesn't matter. My best guess is that they predict based on Barnes statistics last season. I have done the same before. And I am amazed by how bad offensively is the Mavs. They drop in block and steal as well. When I take a closed look, it has something to do with Barnes statistics. Of course, they haven't taken Matthews' health improvement into account. But they take a serious dumb projection to Dirk's health into account. Perhaps they predict the same injury history in Bogut and DWill as well. Even so, the Mavs should do much better than this unless they're in genuine tanking mode.

[Nowitness]

This is why I've never really liked advance stats. The Jazz are not 3rd best in the West, the Nuggets aren't a playoff team, and finishing 13th is out of the equation outside of injuries as said. Somethings can't be based on a stat.

[Darren]

Some preparation work for us.
- pick-n-roll defense for Bogut, Dirk and DWill.
- moving without the ball while Dirk draws double-team

I think we win by playing defense. Literally, Dirk's considered the sole liability on defense by most team. We've to make them play and find a way to save Dirk's stamina in heavy double team and involvement on defensive ends. From the last 2 Olympics games, players kept attracking Bogut from the perimeter. I think there's something we should aware of. DWill will play more key role as defender and floor manager. We lost the best defender at 1 in Felton this offseason. DWill will see extended minutes for his defense. I hope Harris can bounce back a bit. He's not as good as a defender and has lost a lot of steps in dribbling last season.

I can see Matthews getting more clean look from the perimeter. I hope he improves in shot selection coming season. His postup is the most consistent part of his game. So is catch-n-shout when opened. I don't like him dribbling and take shots with defender on his face. If Barnes can make good use of his ability to space the floor and improve on his assist number, I think he's already a factor on the floor. When he's able to not bringing the ball too high to avoid turnovers, I think he can at least get to the paint with ease. If he struggles to convert layup at the beginning, dunk it or pass it or draw a foul then. Playing smart and team ball can help all others out tremendously even if he's not too good converting layup currently. I hope he can somewhat transform into a lockdown defender like Marion and run the break a lot quicker. If he can do it at Mayo's level in his first year in this aspect, I am fine already. OJ's not even a good ball-handler. He gets blocked and stolen on fastbreaks a lot.

[SOUNDCHASER]

Never do I worry about what anyone from ESPN has to say about our chances.

They are always clueless with regard to the Mavs, as it has ever been.

This is about the most solid team we have had since the championship season.

HB is going to be fine. In fact all 5 starters would start for most teams in this league except for maybe Deron. Dirk Bogut and Barnes is one of the top front courts in the league and even though PG may be the weak link we have a lot of depth to platoon there and a young combo guard in Seth Curry who shot as well from the 3 as anyone in the league at the end of last season.

Depth at center and wings is solid with Anderson and Mejri returning from last season. If Curry develops then we have a second string that could have some starters and future all stars about ready to bust out. Grooming Curry for replacing Deron protects us if he gets hurt again Ditto Anderson for Wes. If Powell improves more we have a better than decent back up at PF. I am keeping my fingers crossed that Hammons is a 5/4 that can develop by the end of the season into a useful piece!

That is 10 solid pieces to play if you count our 1st round choice and we have not even mentioned JJB and Harris yet who are both very savvy vets. Now we are up to 12 solid pieces and a mix of youth and veterans to boot.

That's a roster that can weather injuries and win a lot of games and then go past the first round in the playoffs if they stay healthy and get lucky.

Damn Acy is a capable guy at the 3/4 as well almost forgot about him so 13 YES.

Round out the team with young developmental guys like Brussino and another guard or big and I am happy. If you watch the waiver wire maybe we find another vet with something still left in the tank.

[2011Champs]

Unless this is the year Dirk shows his age Dallas will have 41+ wins. Rick Carlisle always finds a way to get wins even when there is a lack of talent.

[Teffer10]

13 seems horrible but I do wonder where our scoring will come from this season. Dirk, DWill, Matthews and then where?
Barnes and JJ will give us some but guys like Curry and Anderson will need to take their games to much higher levels in order for us to compete on the offensive end.
I don't expect much offense from Bogut, Mejri, Powell, Harris, and Acy so I see this team struggling on offense next season.

So 13 wouldn't exactly surprise me in the end....especially if any of those top 3 are out a significant amount of time.

[fuller4379]

I don't see a drop from last year. Barnes is better injured Parsons. Wes Mathews is better than a Wes Mathews coming off major surgery. Bogut is better than Zaza. Dirk and DWill are one year older, but we are overall a little better with our starting 5. Justin Anderson should show an improvement off the bench since this will be his second season. The rest of the bench is pretty much a push from last season. The only real loss off the bench is Felton.

[Clyde Frazier]

I think dirk and carlisle give us one more run of performing above expectations. I’d take the over.

Full List

Warriors: 66.5
Cavs: 56.6
Spurs: 56.5
Clippers: 53.5
Celtics: 51.5
Raptors: 49.5
Jazz: 47.5
Blazers: 46.5
Pistons: 45.5
Thunder: 45.5
Hawks: 43.5
Pacers: 43.5
Grizzlies: 43.5
Wizards: 42.5
Rockets: 41.5
Wolves: 41.5
Hornets: 39.5
Mavericks: 39.5
Bucks: 39.5
Bulls: 38.5
Knicks: 38.5
Heat: 36.5
Pelicans: 36.5
Magic: 36.5
Nuggets: 34.5
Kings: 32.5
76ers: 27.5
Suns: 26.5
Lakers: 24.5
Nets: 20.5

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/243380/Oddsmakers-Have-Warriors-At-665-Wins-Nets-At-NBA-Low-205

[Dirk]

All these pre-season projections are starting to make me root against the Wolves.

[2011Champs]

I would really like to take the over, however Mavs are just a Dirk and/or Bogut injury away from being under. Or even just Dirk showing his age...If both stay really healthy I think Dallas is easily over.

[Clyde Frazier]

All these pre-season projections are starting to make me root against the Wolves.

Yeah, the thibodeau hire was great, and towns is an incredible young player, but I’d take the under there. a 10 win improvement would have them at 39 wins. i don’t see much more than that. Still pretty inexperienced across the board. Rubio’s also kinda fragile.

[SOUNDCHASER]

Sorry but the MAVS are improved over last season and with health we are easily much better than HOU and MIN.

[SOUNDCHASER]

Also that list is off big time with putting the Jazz so high on it

[ejs1997]

Also that list is off big time with putting the Jazz so high on it

I got the Jazz right around that 47 mark.

40 wins last year with Favors missing 20 games, Gobert 21, Burks 51, and Exum the whole year . Adding G.Hill, Diaw, and J. Johnson gives them the vets that they need as well.

Think Synder is a pretty solid coach as well.

[suntzuballin]

I been thinking mavs have best team in west that would give gsw a run for its money.Its not that they aquried bogut and barns.Mavs have a lot 3 point shooters. (seems nba is gearing the game that way smh and now you just have to out shoot them)

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[gom]

The Mavs are much better than 39-40 wins.

I wish you guys luck. My team is in the crapper this season, and I'd love to see Dirk get the send off he deserves. Pedal to the metal. Seth swishing. Bogut and Barnes will shine!

[Otis Driftwood]

Easily over... health permitting.

[jpengland]

If I HAD to place money, I'd go under.

But it sounds about right with the Carlisle factor. Depends on Bogut health.

[Little Digger]

I bet the Mavs over..Only a small wager though because of Bogut's lack of durability...