Mavericks Projections 16/17 (ESPN, FiveThirtyEight, Nyloncalculus, Vegas)

SOUNDCHASER · Post #1 » by **SOUNDCHASER** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:02 am

ESPN Forecast: 2016-17 West standings / LINK / Jul 26, 2016 / 40-42
--- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- ---
ESPN's RPM Projected Wins / LINK / Aug 24, 2016 / 34.3
--- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- ---
Vegas projections / LINK/ Sept 20, 2016 / 39.5
--- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- ---
Nyloncalculus / LINK / Sep 27, 2016 / 41
--- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- ---
FiveThirtyEight / LINK / Oct 20, 2016 / 37-45
--- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- -- -- -- ---
Other predictions / LINK

Darren · Post #2 » by **Darren** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:27 am

Well, I don't think Utah can jump that high. George Hill is a good defender who plays out of control very often. Of course, they form one of the best defensive squad with improved PG plays. As for Portland, I think Turner hurts their spacing in a very bad way. Their 2-PG lineup may not work too well with defenders clogging the middle. Houston is the nowadays Pheonix Suns. They get Anderson and Gordon. They would try to outscore other teams instead of playing defense. OKC's defense is still great. But the spacing is awful indeed. They have 5 players in the starting lineup that cannot held their owns on the perimeter consistently. I am not too high of them. Memphis is improving. However, Randolph is deteriorating. They rest their fortunes on injury prone starting lineup. And their chemistry is going to deteriorate with Parsons addition. All these teams are on path with us. We're not that far away. As long as we find a way for Barnes to contribute effectively, we can climb over all of them in standing.

Nowitness · Post #3 » by **Nowitness** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:18 am

Wes is already 30 wow didn't even realize

Post #4 » by **Dirk** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:06 pm

It's not a wild or disrespectful prediction. Although I feel they should have acknowledge that Matthews should be better, Barnes should play a full season and the center position was upgraded, bringing up the age is logical.

Looking at previous years, they were pretty accurate with the Mavs:

ESPN forecast 15/16
Mavs 41-41

ESPN forecast 14/15
Mavs 50-32

SOUNDCHASER · Post #5 » by **SOUNDCHASER** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:08 pm

Memphis lost after Gasol was out and he had a broken foot so its likely he goes the way of Yao Ming another big who had foot injuries. Portland is not impressive enough at the bigs, Utah is a joke, Houston is as well. OKC is a shame but they still have a tough defense and could surprise some people with what they can do minus durant. Not everyone is an iron man like Dirk has been. What I think will happen is Dallas is going to get 4th or 5th not 9th. Bogut was a huge addition and having Mejri as well to man the middle gives us 2 usable bigs that can eat a lot of minutes and we may not need to rely on them as much if we can get Hammons to accelerate his understanding of the game and begin to contribute in some small way. When we have decent centers we win guys. that position has been the key to victory for us in the Dirk years.

Deron's age will not be a factor unless he gets hurt, knock on wood. Wes is going to improve Barnes is a vast improvement over someone who was injured 2 years missing the playoffs. Dirk is the rock of gibraltar as far as resisting injuries and playing through tough times. Now for the bench and depth: Harris and JJB are nothing special but have always performed so they bring consistency to the table. Anderson and Powell are developing into starter quality backups and the Curry signing could be absolutely huge, The fact we got him so cheap for 2 years with that kind of shooting % was a steal.

Acy was also a steal if he can continue to develop his 3 point shooting. With what we have now the mavs are 2 deep at every position and in the case of PF and PG we may be 3 deep if you call Curry a PG. Lots of 2 way players and flexible guys that can play more than one position so that give coach a lot of options to play guys in lineups that match up better. Defense should improve in the frontcourt and shooting should improve with additions of Curry plus the expected improvement of Anderson and Wes getting back to normal. Barnes is already a good shooter so we did not drop off with him vs Parsons. I think its a bad prediction having us out of the playoffs.

Many are talking our ceiling is as high as 4th seed so saying we finish 9th is pretty bad placement especially when there is Utah, OKC and Houston ahead of you in your predictions.

Darren · Post #6 » by **Darren** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:34 pm

I agree with your point. Age is not a determining factor to the Mavs coz of ultra depth. I don't see us struggle at all. Frontcourt depth is the only concern. If we are desperate, we can always sign a veteran like David Lee for depth. I don't see it as a huge concern.

Post #7 » by **Texas Chuck** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:15 pm

Dirk Nowitzki wrote:It's not a wild or disrespectful prediction. Although I feel they should have acknowledge that Matthews should be better, Barnes should play a full season and the center position was upgraded, bringing up the age is logical.

Looking at previous years, they were pretty accurate with the Mavs:

ESPN forecast 15/16
Mavs 41-41

ESPN forecast 14/15
Mavs 50-32

Yeah not disrespectful. If Dallas can keep the starting 5 healthy then I think we will exceed their predictions. But I think that's an optimistic hope with real concerns about all the starters but Barnes.

Also, heard Cuban on the radio with Coop this afternoon talking about Wes not being able to even dunk the ball until the end of the season and that now he's working out in Dallas every day with the young players and looks a lot better physically--claimed he was doing 45-inch box jumps in his workouts.

I'm not prepared to fully buy that, but it is encouraging.

SOUNDCHASER · Post #8 » by **SOUNDCHASER** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:15 am

about half the bspn writers said we would finish dead last in the west last season.

Post #9 » by **HMFFL** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:34 am

I believe Utah does improve as projected.
I won't be shocked if they win more than 45 games.

I have no confidence in Oklahoma City Thunder. 44 wins? Yet, Westbrook most likely is dealt before the trade deadline so that's going to be a huge hit for them. I doubt they make the playoffs. Once Westbrook is dealt nobody will even want to play for OKC as far as star talent goes, so it's going to be an ongoing issue for them, after being gifted the team from Seattle.

New Orleans will be better. Anthony Davis has been basically injured for a couple of seasons and his off-season surgery should help him reach his MVP potential. He's my sleeper.

bobsquad · Post #10 » by **bobsquad** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:26 am

I've gone back and forth on Portland vs Utah in that division, but I think Utah wins. They got some smart veteran adds that should be huge, I could realistically see up to a 10 win improvement. Portland, on the other hand, has more untapped potential. I'm excited about both of those teams this season.

If OKC can sign Westbrook to an extension, they're good for the 7th-9th seed. That's a young team that's a free agent away from being relevant again. Their best hope is keeping Westbrook, not tanking, then trying again next offseason. Tank now and they're doomed to the cellar in a conference where teams like the Lakers, T-Wolves, and Nuggets (not to mention Portland and Utah) are already a few steps further in the rebuilding process.

Post #11 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:21 pm

They certainly project to be a fringe playoff team, but it's like people have short memories or something. Dirk / carlisle have performed above regular season expectations for several years now. You'd think people would notice the trend and give them the benefit of the doubt...

Devassa · Post #12 » by **Devassa** » Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:22 pm

It's disrespectful to Dirk and Carlisle to project them with a losing record. I think we are a 6 seed better than OKC and Houston... Not sure why I see those teams as high as I have on recent predictions.. I would love a first round matchup against the Clips or SA though.. Unlikely we win, but they would be exciting for a number of reasons and I do think we could be competitive

Darren · Post #13 » by **Darren** » Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:10 am

Actually, random fans are more mean to Dallas. They have Houston and Minnesota over Dallas. That means 10th in the West. They think Houston has a much better motion offense with D'Antoni with Harden-Anderson-Gordon to outscore anyone in the West. And they believe Minny's young players will mature enough to make their presence.

I agree that Minny is up-and-coming. But I am still not sold on Houston. Harden-Anderson pick-n-path may be effective. Houston has been great offensive team lately. However, they ain't any better in winning. I know D'Antoni is a better coach. Can they afford that many holes in the starting lineup? I don't think so. As long as Harrison Barnes improves moderately as a combination of Matrix and Peja, I like our chance. We can always insert another ball handler and make Matthews a sixth man.

SOUNDCHASER · Post #14 » by **SOUNDCHASER** » Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:38 am

Our team is full of potential and proven players at most positions
PROVEN : Dirk Bogut Barnes Matthews and Williams. JJB is the proven backup at PG that will get you scoring and get in the head of the other team. Harris a consummate vet / ex all star and quick enough still to guard fast PG's. Add to this last years surprises at SF and C in Anderson and Mejri plus even Powell given his ability to do what he did in limited minutes. This right here is the core of next years team but we have some maybes that could make things more interesting in Curry and Acy who just might usurp some PT to boot.Further hope is possible still with Hammons getting any development.

Post #15 » by **HMFFL** » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:56 pm

Western Conference
1. Warriors: 66.8
2. Spurs: 54.5
3. Jazz: 47.6
4. Clippers: 46.3
5. Rockets: 45.8
6. Thunder: 45.6
7. Blazers: 44.5
8. Nuggets: 40.4
9. Grizzlies: 39.4
10. Kings: 37.7
11. Wolves: 37.1
12. Pelicans: 37.0
13. Mavericks: 34.3

Might this be the year that coach Rick Carlisle, veteran big man Dirk Nowitzki and a cast of newcomers can't get the Mavericks to the playoffs? RPM says yes, since swapping Parsons (plus-1.3) for Harrison Barnes (minus-0.7) grades as a major downgrade.

14. Suns: 29.2
15. Lakers: 24.3

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/243189/Warriors-Spurs-Cavs-Celtics-Raptors-Lead-ESPNs-RPM-Projected-Wins

Post #16 » by **Dirk** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:29 am

That is a shocking projection...

That basically projects the Mavs to have a ton of injuries, because there's no way they will be third worst unless Dirk goes down.

Devassa · Post #17 » by **Devassa** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:13 pm

Garbage prediction by garbage experts on a garbage network. ESPN hasn't even been tolerable background noise since Stuart Scott left. I have the Mavs winning 10 more games than that at least (barring injuries)

Post #18 » by **bwgood77** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:21 pm

Devassa wrote:Garbage prediction by garbage experts on a garbage network. ESPN hasn't even been tolerable background noise since Stuart Scott left. I have the Mavs winning 10 more games than that at least (barring injuries)

Pelton is one of their best. But if you read the entire post, it doesn't take into account things like coaching. Carlisle ALWAYS gets more out of players than they did previously. Barnes will likely benefit because of this. He will utilize his strengths and hide his weaknesses. You'll probably be on the fringes of the playoffs with several other teams, and if you have a draft pick this year, maybe a lottery pick would be a good thing with this deep draft, particularly deep in point guards.

Post #19 » by **Dirk** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:52 pm

Devassa wrote:Garbage prediction by garbage experts on a garbage network. ESPN hasn't even been tolerable background noise since Stuart Scott left. I have the Mavs winning 10 more games than that at least (barring injuries)

In this case, this isn't 'subjective'. It's based on this stat. It's not a good look though - the Clippers will win over 50 games easily. There's no way the Nuggets finish above the Grizzlies. And a few other things.

Devassa · Post #20 » by **Devassa** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:39 pm

Dirk Nowitzki wrote:
Devassa wrote:Garbage prediction by garbage experts on a garbage network. ESPN hasn't even been tolerable background noise since Stuart Scott left. I have the Mavs winning 10 more games than that at least (barring injuries)

In this case, this isn't 'subjective'. It's based on this stat. It's not a good look though - the Clippers will win over 50 games easily. There's no way the Nuggets finish above the Grizzlies. And a few other things.

I'd love to hear the reasoning behind how on earth they have Houston having 10 more wins than us. Adding 2 injury prone overpaid players from the Pelicans and one of the worst coaches in the league over the past 10 years?