RealGM

Tue, May 16, 2023


With 20 games left I thought I would make a playoff thread for the WC

Basketball Reference-Mavs 5th seed w/ 77.8% chance to make playoffs
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

fivethirtyeight-Mavs 5th seed w/ 88% to make playoffs
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Tankathon-remaining strength of schedule is 22nd
https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Only game of importance tonight is:
Magic @ Pelicans

Should be a very stressful last 20 games.

Good idea
Main threat from below is GS, unless Wolves figure it out, PHX remain to be seen with Durant, but they are likely taking off to be 3rd/4th seed, Clippers will be main competition for 5th/6th/7th.

With Kidd letting the Players figure it out instead of coaching them,telling them what to do, this teams iz more likely heading for a playin spot than 5 or 6 seed

My hate for the Lakers has me intrigued if they can make the play-in or not.

BBR says no and 538 yes as 9 seed which is about where I see them.

5h and 13th in the west are separated by 2 games in the loss column, 4th and 13th are separated by 3, amazing, every game counts.

Lebron is going to be out multiple weeks.

This could very easily be one less team to worry about.

ejs78 wrote:Lebron is going to be out multiple weeks.

This could very easily be one less team to worry about.

A bigger load for Davis will probably have him missing a handful of games too. Be curious to see if their role players can step up.

Kind of a big day of WC teams facing each other:

Lakers @ Grizz (-9.5)
Kings @ Thunder (+2.5)
Spurs @ Jazz (-9.5)
Blazers @ Warriors (-4.5)
Wolves @ Clippers (-6.5)

kacey ring wrote:

ejs78 wrote:Lebron is going to be out multiple weeks.

This could very easily be one less team to worry about.

A bigger load for Davis will probably have him missing a handful of games too. Be curious to see if their role players can step up.

Davis has also never shown the ability to lead a team to the playoffs on his own.

Spurs beat Utah LMAO, LAL lost, Dubs looks like they'll lose.

I think we will barely win enough to make play-in. I think we’ll get more help from some combination of the teams below losing compared to us just winning on our own.

Biggest factors:
1. Zion return and impact for Pelicans. Seems like he may be another 1-2 weeks out at minimum.
2. Jazz ability to keep it together and continue overachieving. Bad L to Spurs.
3. Lakers rallying without LBJ for an extended period. Not a good start with loss to Grizz.
4. Towns return and Timberwolves finding a rhythm to finish the season

Also, realistically how many more games will we win? We’re 2-8 on the second game of a back to back this year. We have three more of those to end the year.

Also, I feel the Mavs got a crappy schedule. 10 out of our 13 of the second game of a B2B have been/will be on the road. Yay!!

Decent chance we finish under .500.

Games I’m confident we can win:
3/7 vs Jazz
3/15 @ Spurs
3/24 vs Hornets
3/26 @ Hornets
4/7 vs Bulls
4/9 vs Spurs

Toss ups:
3/13 vs Grizzlies
3/17 @ Lakers

Potential losses:
3/2 vs 76ers
3/5 vs Suns
3/8 @ Pelicans (2nd game of B2B)
3/11 @ Grizzlies
3/20 @ Grizzlies
3/22 vs Warriors
3/27 @ Pacers (2nd game of B2B)
3/29 @ 76ers
4/1 @ Heat
4/2 @ Hawks (2nd game of B2B)
4/5 vs Kings

PO is a low probabilty right now, GSW will not give up 6th spot, they just 23 pt deficit to 17 pt lead.

A 7 way tie from 5th to 11th is a total possibility in the west.

Lol I’m loving the west right now. Very Suspenseful but I hope we pick it up

Mavs are down to 6th in both projections:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

3/1 Key Games
Suns @ Hornets (+9.5)
Grizz @ Rockets (+9.5)

These 2 matter the most as 1 team will fall further behind for the time being
Lakers @ Thunder (-1.5)
Pelicans @ Blazers (-1.5)

Mavs are better off missing the PO at this point.

Ni Da Ye wrote:Mavs are better off missing the PO at this point.

Why? Its not likely we keep the pick so what u gain from missing po? Just joy for u and ozwizard

Apz wrote:

Ni Da Ye wrote:Mavs are better off missing the PO at this point.

Why? Its not likely we keep the pick so what u gain from missing po? Just joy for u and ozwizard

I gain from having to not suffer from my beloved mavs being swept.

Apz wrote:

Ni Da Ye wrote:Mavs are better off missing the PO at this point.

Why? Its not likely we keep the pick so what u gain from missing po? Just joy for u and ozwizard

Haters gonna hate.