OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012

baulderdash77 · Post #81 » by **baulderdash77** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 6:33 pm

Sabathia and CJ Wilson are both #1 and #2 quality starters on a championship team. I wouldn't say they're crap. But there isn't much depth behind them.

I really support Darvish for $100 million.

Post #82 » by **OldNo7** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:41 pm

I don't support $100M on Darvish at all. Ask the Red Sox how happy they are with the buckets of money spent on Daisuke. I would rather give CJ Wilson a 4-year deal.

Randle McMurphy · Post #83 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:45 pm

I support any money spent by Rogers on any free agent, they need to do something this offseason. If Darvish is the guy they want to spend it on, I'm not going to doubt AA.

Post #84 » by **J.Kim** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:38 pm

OldNo7 wrote:I don't support $100M on Darvish at all. Ask the Red Sox how happy they are with the buckets of money spent on Daisuke. I would rather give CJ Wilson a 4-year deal.

And by all accounts, based on the Posting fee and the salary they gave compared to the foreign revenue streams, Red Sox came on top of that investment.

I'm all for Darvish for $100-120M (Posting fee + salary, of course)

Also, good to hear the Jays are front runners.

Kaizen · Post #85 » by **Kaizen** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:46 pm

OldNo7 wrote:Buster Olney indicated in today's column that "within the industry" it is believed Toronto is the front runner for Darvish.

This makes it sound less likely then what you posted.

1. In some corners within the industry, the Toronto Blue Jays are viewed as the early front-runner in the pursuit of Yu Darvish, the powerful right-hander who is expected to move from Japan to Major League Baseball next year.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster

Parataxis · Post #86 » by **Parataxis** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 1:26 am

J.Kim wrote:
OldNo7 wrote:I don't support $100M on Darvish at all. Ask the Red Sox how happy they are with the buckets of money spent on Daisuke. I would rather give CJ Wilson a 4-year deal.

And by all accounts, based on the Posting fee and the salary they gave compared to the foreign revenue streams, Red Sox came on top of that investment.

I'm all for Darvish for $100-120M (Posting fee + salary, of course)

That's the thing - without a salary cap, the rules on good signings vs bad signings are entirely different.

As long as a player is generating more money than he's costing, signing him shouldn't affect the rest of the Jays' salary situation. If we have (for example) 15 mil to spend (per season) on a FA, and we think that Darvish will generate more money than he costs, then there's nothing stopping us from getting him AND a big bat (him at 100mil/5 years and the bat at 90/6, for example)

Garmfay · Post #87 » by **Garmfay** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 6:43 am

Get er done AA. I would be willing to fork over $100+ mill to get him. Let the Yanks/Redsox overpay for CJ Wilson/CC Sabathia

Wally West · Post #88 » by **Wally West** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:41 pm

Here are the rest of Olney's rumors...

The Blue Jays are viewed as front-runners for Yu Darvish by some within the industry. A few days ago we heard that Darvish was still undecided about coming to MLB.

Skin Blues · Post #89 » by **Skin Blues** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 4:27 pm

Parataxis wrote:
J.Kim wrote:
OldNo7 wrote:I don't support $100M on Darvish at all. Ask the Red Sox how happy they are with the buckets of money spent on Daisuke. I would rather give CJ Wilson a 4-year deal.

And by all accounts, based on the Posting fee and the salary they gave compared to the foreign revenue streams, Red Sox came on top of that investment.

I'm all for Darvish for $100-120M (Posting fee + salary, of course)

That's the thing - without a salary cap, the rules on good signings vs bad signings are entirely different.

As long as a player is generating more money than he's costing, signing him shouldn't affect the rest of the Jays' salary situation. If we have (for example) 15 mil to spend (per season) on a FA, and we think that Darvish will generate more money than he costs, then there's nothing stopping us from getting him AND a big bat (him at 100mil/5 years and the bat at 90/6, for example)

This is true, and something that people overlook all the time, but also you have to realize that the marginal benefit of adding FAs shrinks as you keep adding good players. Diminishing returns. If we add Darvish for $100M, all of a sudden the revenue brought in by adding Pujols is lower because there is overlap in the extra revenue brought in by Darvish (arguably less than usual, since a lot of his appeal is foreign). I'd rather see them go after CJ Wilson to be honest. More of a sure thing, less risk, less money. Not as marketable, but I don't care about the bottom line so much as I care about making the playoffs. And in the long run, winning puts butts in the seats.

Post #90 » by **J.Kim** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:42 pm

You should be using $50M as the mark instead of $100M. The opportunity cost of Darvish's contract would be paying any other player $50M in the next FA period. If Rogers was going to spend the money anyway, that $50M shouldn't matter since it'd be going to anyone out on the market whether it'd be CJ Wilson, CC Sabathia or who else. So realistically you should be comparing the $50M spent on the posting fee and weigh it against the marginal revenues that would come from adding Darvish, instead of the full $100M.

As for the revenue streams, there is less risk of a diminishing return in adding Darvish compared to any other player on the market. Increase in attendance revenues would occur regardless of who the Jays add, considering that they'd be adding quality talent and making a push for the playoffs. Doesn't matter if it's Pujols, Fielder, Darvish or Wilson. However, for most Darvish proponents on here, what we're talking about is extra untapped revenue from Japan. What most of us believe (considering what we've seen from Matsuzaka, Nomo and etc) is that the extra untapped revenue from Japan would cover the posting fee and potentially some of the salary that the Jays would pay to Darvish.

That's the crux of what Parataxis is getting at, I believe. There should be no diminishing returns (in terms of all other revenue besides attendance) that Darvish would generate, and so the extra revenue that would be generated by him could potentially offset his contract and allow the Jays to approach a big bat.

PimpHandStrong · Post #91 » by **PimpHandStrong** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:02 pm

http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/players/61965110.html

ERA down at 1.48. 240 Ks to 32 BBs in 207 IP (0.84 WHIP). His stats blow Dice-K's Japanese stats out of the water. Other-worldly.

He's definitely target #1 for me. Darvish and Fielder. Get'er done AA.

PimpHandStrong · Post #92 » by **PimpHandStrong** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:14 pm

Dice K: 2.81 ERA in 1162.1 IP over 7 seasons in Japan.

Darvish: 2.01 ERA in 1243.1 IP over 7 seasons in Japan.

Dice K's best season ERA was higher than Darvish's career number...and Dice-K accomplished it in his last season (age 25) in Japan. Darvish is just completing his age 24 season.

Post #93 » by **J.Kim** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:50 pm

Dice K should not be a comparison at this point. There really is no comparison for him. He's the best pitcher to ever play in the NPB.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #94 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:54 pm

Garmfay wrote:Get er done AA. I would be willing to fork over $100+ mill to get him. Let the Yanks/Redsox overpay for CJ Wilson/CC Sabathia

How can you say overpay for CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia? Both are proven aces (arguably one a big stud..pun intended) while $100M for a pitcher who's never pitched in the major leagues isn't overpaying?

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #95 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:56 pm

J.Kim wrote:You should be using $50M as the mark instead of $100M. The opportunity cost of Darvish's contract would be paying any other player $50M in the next FA period. If Rogers was going to spend the money anyway, that $50M shouldn't matter since it'd be going to anyone out on the market whether it'd be CJ Wilson, CC Sabathia or who else. So realistically you should be comparing the $50M spent on the posting fee and weigh it against the marginal revenues that would come from adding Darvish, instead of the full $100M.

As for the revenue streams, there is less risk of a diminishing return in adding Darvish compared to any other player on the market. Increase in attendance revenues would occur regardless of who the Jays add, considering that they'd be adding quality talent and making a push for the playoffs. Doesn't matter if it's Pujols, Fielder, Darvish or Wilson. However, for most Darvish proponents on here, what we're talking about is extra untapped revenue from Japan. What most of us believe (considering what we've seen from Matsuzaka, Nomo and etc) is that the extra untapped revenue from Japan would cover the posting fee and potentially some of the salary that the Jays would pay to Darvish.

That's the crux of what Parataxis is getting at, I believe. There should be no diminishing returns (in terms of all other revenue besides attendance) that Darvish would generate, and so the extra revenue that would be generated by him could potentially offset his contract and allow the Jays to approach a big bat.

Very well put. I'm not against the signing at all and think the Jays see it as not only a great free agent signing, but the extra revenue Darvish would bring in alone from Japanese advertising.

Avenger · Post #96 » by **Avenger** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:30 pm

LBJSeizedMyID wrote:
Garmfay wrote:Get er done AA. I would be willing to fork over $100+ mill to get him. Let the Yanks/Redsox overpay for CJ Wilson/CC Sabathia

How can you say overpay for CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia? Both are proven aces (arguably one a big stud..pun intended) while $100M for a pitcher who's never pitched in the major leagues isn't overpaying?

CJ Wilson is not a proven ace, he's not particularly close either. He was a mediocre power reliever for the most part until he was moved to the starting rotation, his first year in the rotation was okay but not spectacular and this year he's had a career year at the age of 30 that he might not ever repeat again.

BigLeagueChew · Post #97 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:37 pm

First you don't think Romero is close to an ace and now Wilson?You must think there is only 5 or less ace pitchers in baseball or something.

Avenger · Post #98 » by **Avenger** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:27 pm

An Ace to me is a pitcher that throws 200+ innings with elite numbers for 3 straight seasons or atleast 3 of 4. I'm always cautious with potential one year wonders

my Aces would be (in no particular order)

Halladay
Lee
Hamels
Kershaw
Haren
Verlander
Felix
Lester
Wainright
Lincecum
CC
Beckett(borderline case)

could get there with one more stud season:
Weaver
Price
Grienke
Shields
Strasburg
Jaime Garcia

Skin Blues · Post #99 » by **Skin Blues** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:31 pm

The fact that you don't think Weaver/Price/Greinke are aces is about as appalling as lumping them in with Jaime Garcia.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #100 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:18 am

Avenger wrote:
LBJSeizedMyID wrote:
Garmfay wrote:Get er done AA. I would be willing to fork over $100+ mill to get him. Let the Yanks/Redsox overpay for CJ Wilson/CC Sabathia

How can you say overpay for CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia? Both are proven aces (arguably one a big stud..pun intended) while $100M for a pitcher who's never pitched in the major leagues isn't overpaying?

CJ Wilson is not a proven ace, he's not particularly close either. He was a mediocre power reliever for the most part until he was moved to the starting rotation, his first year in the rotation was okay but not spectacular and this year he's had a career year at the age of 30 that he might not ever repeat again.

Fair enough but I'd argue that he's a middle reliever converted to a starter that's shown growth ever since being converted to a starter and about to become elite, and that starters generally hit their peaks at age 30. I guess this is where scouting comes in.