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OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012

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Post#31 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:41 pm by Lange

J.Kim wrote:
Kurtz wrote:Ok, so if the extra revenue from Japan offsets the posting fee, then the real cost for him is 8-9 mil a year? That's a no-brainer...


Considering how much the tabloids report about his life and just how popular he is overall (some would regard it to the likes of Ichiro's heyday in Japan), there should really be no cap on how much posting fee the Jays should pay for negotiation rights.

Consider this from the Seattle Business Report in 2005:
“the full value of Ichiro to the Mariners franchise is incalculable. … Ichiro is also front and center for the Mariners' marketing and advertising campaign, and thus he's closely tied to ticket sales. Ichiro's popularity in Japan was one of the key factors in Major League Baseball's $275 million deal to broadcast games in that country. And Ichiro continues to draw Japanese tourists to Seattle; 81,000 visited last year. …

In late 2003, the league signed its landmark, $275 million, six-year deal with Japanese advertising giant Dentsu Inc. for the rights to broadcast games in Japan, according to Street & Smith's SportsBusiness Journal, a sister publication. That deal marked a huge increase from the previous contract, valued at about $75 million over five years. Dentsu subleases the broadcasting rights to Japanese television networks NHK, Sky PerfecTV!, Tokyo Broadcasting System and Fuji TV.

In Japan, Ichiro is a Michael Jordan-esque sports celebrity with a massive following. All Mariners home games are broadcast in Japan, and MLB sells highlight-reel packages to television networks there. TV stations have been known to interrupt their programming to give updates on Ichiro's daily performance during the season.”


And this from a Mariners Fan forum:

Though the Mariners must split those revenues obtained from Japanese market equally with all 30 Major League teams, in 2004 they also enjoyed revenues from a half-dozen Japanese firms who bought advertisement at Safeco with the idea of marketing to Japanese audiences watching Mariner games.

That article in the Seattle Business Journal quoted Howard Lincoln as saying, "If there was no Ichiro, there would be no broadcast of games back to Japan, and none of these companies would be interested in Safeco Field."


Considering the cost of advertising space in Baseball stadiums:

But the premium space in baseball parks is behind home plate and that's where the Japanese companies want to book. Ads behind home plate are expensive because television cameras are constantly focused there as pitchers and batters duke it out.

Kennedy would not say how much the Sox charge, but advertising specialists said that an ad behind home plate at Fenway can cost as much as $300,000 for just a half inning. Those ads are displayed in rectangles cut into the wall behind the plate and change between innings.

At Rangers Ballpark in Arlington , where the Rangers play, a sign behind home plate costs between $120,000 and $160,000 per half inning, and that's if you buy a full season's worth of ads, said Alicia Nevins , the team's vice president of corporate sales.

Buying for just a few games, as did Dandy House Spa when the Sox played the Rangers April 6-8, costs more. Miura Co. , a Japanese water boiler manufacturer, is in discussions to advertise in the Rangers park, said Nevins.


And considering how a player like Darvish will drive up the advertising revenues through Japanese companies interested in advertising their products through the Jays and Darvish...

From a financial standpoint, even a $75M posting fee will be offset pretty easily by incremental revenues, I think; considering time value of money.

Hell, all the incremental revenues may even cover Darvish's contract which would probably be in the $10-11M range. (on an absolute basis though, not on a TVM basis)


It's a very interesting study. I wonder what the difference is in economic impact on a pitcher vs an everyday player.
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Post#32 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 12:22 am by Randle McMurphy

Seems like the major suitors for Darvish would be the Yankees, Rangers, and Jays. I'm guessing a $50M posting fee bid would get him for sure?
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Post#33 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 12:34 am by Avenger

Randle McMurphy wrote:Seems like the major suitors for Darvish would be the Yankees, Rangers, and Jays. I'm guessing a $50M posting fee bid would get him for sure?

The Nationals are also probably major suitors and depending on who the new GM in Chicago is gonna be the Cubs could also see Darvish as a way to get their Ace that they've been looking for. The Angels locked up Weaver and they might not wanna make a long term commitment to Kendrys Morales so they could divert that money into bolstering an already awesome pitching staff?

We're kinda lucky the other big boys like the Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers etc are either tapped out financially or have other commitments in the near future.

50 million should get it done, teams probably learned their lesson with Dice K when the Red Sox bid 30 million more than the 2nd highest bid. It'll take another 50-60 to lock up the player himself and the total money should be about what CJ Wilson will get in the offseason. So the question should be do you want a relatively proven but older commodity in CJ or a younger but extremely risky Darvish who might have more upside?
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Post#34 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 1:00 am by darth_federer

100 mil for a pitcher whos never pitched in the MLB? Where do I sign?
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Post#35 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 1:17 am by Randle McMurphy

darth_federer wrote:100 mil for a pitcher whos never pitched in the MLB? Where do I sign?

Fortunately for us, we have a GM that isn't close-minded and is willing to take risks.

The Nationals are also probably major suitors and depending on who the new GM in Chicago is gonna be the Cubs could also see Darvish as a way to get their Ace that they've been looking for. The Angels locked up Weaver and they might not wanna make a long term commitment to Kendrys Morales so they could divert that money into bolstering an already awesome pitching staff?

We're kinda lucky the other big boys like the Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers etc are either tapped out financially or have other commitments in the near future.

50 million should get it done, teams probably learned their lesson with Dice K when the Red Sox bid 30 million more than the 2nd highest bid. It'll take another 50-60 to lock up the player himself and the total money should be about what CJ Wilson will get in the offseason. So the question should be do you want a relatively proven but older commodity in CJ or a younger but extremely risky Darvish who might have more upside?

Either one would be a fine addition and would likely provide similar production (it would also mean Rogers actually opened up their pocket book for once on the major league side), but Darvish is intriguing for his potential as both a pitcher and revenue producer.
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Post#36 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 1:43 am by darth_federer

I hope they open up their books for a proven commodity. Im just cautious about throwing a 100 million at a guy whos never played in the MLB.

Still this guy has some great numbers no doubt.

The Hardball Times' Oliver projection system has Darvish's next six seasons projected as Major League Equivalents, and I'm not really sure what to make of them. His 2011 Major League Equivalent line per Oliver is 193 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 221 Ks, 10.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9, worth 6.4 WAR, which would have made him one of the top 5 pitchers in all of MLB last season.

Additionally, were he to hit those numbers in each and every season over the next six years -- which Oliver more or less thinks he will, with WARs of 6.4, 6.3, 6.4, 6.4, 6.3 and 6.3, respectively -- he'd be the best pitcher in Major League Baseball by a good margin.



Probably too optimistic with the projections though...
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Post#37 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 1:52 am by Randle McMurphy

With Darvish, you also don't have to worry about another team like NYY or BOS swooping in once you bid the most. You get exclusive negotiating rights. Not the case with other players.

Also remember that AA's biggest regret as a GM was not spending the few extra million on Chapman. If he really wants Darvish, I think the Jays will get him.
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Post#38 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 2:37 am by Weems

I think he's the real deal. His pitches have such good movement, it's hard not to believe. The main concern to me is his command and how he adjusts to a vastly superior league.

And welp, I guess I've (sadly) never considered the revenue some of these imports would generate. It's way more palatable if the revenue offsets the posting fee. Anyone know what happens if you can't agree on terms after earning negotiating rights?

edit: found a velocity chart and game log - http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=242

Looks like he throws a lot of pitches but has 6+ days rest between starts. Slider is nuts, curve/2-seamer/forkball are also quite good IIRC.
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Post#39 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 7:56 am by J.Kim

Weems wrote:I think he's the real deal. His pitches have such good movement, it's hard not to believe. The main concern to me is his command and how he adjusts to a vastly superior league.

And welp, I guess I've (sadly) never considered the revenue some of these imports would generate. It's way more palatable if the revenue offsets the posting fee. Anyone know what happens if you can't agree on terms after earning negotiating rights?

edit: found a velocity chart and game log - http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=242

Looks like he throws a lot of pitches but has 6+ days rest between starts. Slider is nuts, curve/2-seamer/forkball are also quite good IIRC.


Over the past couple years since the WBC, his command has improved significantly, he can locate pitches within the strike zone pretty effectively. I don't think it's as much a concern now.

The biggest concerns are (obviously) adjustment and injuries/wear. Thankfully, he hasn't spent too much time being injured, so hopefully he remains just as durable.

His slider is devastating. It was already filthy when we saw it at WBC in 2009. By all accounts, he's gotten better control and command of it. He can legitimately use 3 of his off-speed pitches as an out-pitch from what I hear.
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Post#40 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 8:53 am by Michael Bradley

I think AA could convince Rogers to pay up to sign Darvish over someone like Fielder due to the ROI and marketing potential that Darvish brings (as mentioned in this thread already). The fact that AA seems aggressive in this is a good thing. He is someone that usually finds a way to get what he wants, and as mentioned already, if the Jays get exclusive negotiating rights then they don't have to worry about the Yankees or Red Sox or whoever swooping in with a better offer during the actual contract discussions.

Signing Darvish to big money would be a risk, but a worthwhile one, IMO. Even if he doesn't pan out, teams like the Jays have to take these types of chances some times when they present themselves. But if they do land Darvish, I hope it does not stop their pursuit of another quality hitter. If AA can sign Darvish and trade the farm for Votto, then that would be pretty damn good in closing the gap between themselves and Boston/New York/Tampa.
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Post#41 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 9:27 am by PimpHandStrong

Through 175 innings in 21 starts so far this season, Darvish's WHIP, K/9 and BB/9 stand at 0.83, 10.59 and 1.39 (a huge improvement here) respectively. Dude's 16-4 with a 1.54 ERA.

If the Jays were to sign Darvish, and I'm still in Toronto next year (just moved here), I'll be at Rogers for as many of his starts as possible (given price/availability). A 1-2-3 of Darvish-Romero-Morrow is filthy. Add Prince Fielder to the mix, and this team could be ready next year.
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Post#42 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 9:53 am by Hoopstarr

Randle McMurphy wrote:With Darvish, you also don't have to worry about another team like NYY or BOS swooping in once you bid the most. You get exclusive negotiating rights. Not the case with other players.

Also remember that AA's biggest regret as a GM was not spending the few extra million on Chapman. If he really wants Darvish, I think the Jays will get him.


I was just going to mention the Chapman thing. Doubtful AA will let that happen again for someone he wants. Getting it done early could help us sign other free agents as well. Boston won the Dice-K bidding in mid-November. Ichiro's was even earlier.
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Post#43 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 12:19 pm by BOOOOOSH

From the London Free Press

TALENT SEARCH REACHES JAPAN

while the bullpen burned in Baltimore, GM AA was in Japan looking for talent for next season. Anthopoulos was scouting World Baseball Classic sensation Yu Darvish. The 6-foot-5, 185 right-hander is with the Nippon Ham Fighters. Darvish, 25, picked up his 16th win Tuesday night in front of major-league scouts.


goes on to talk about his stats and finishes with the obvious

The New York Yankess are also interested.


No link, transcribed from the paper.
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Post#44 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 12:35 pm by darth_federer

I wonder if the Yankees are a little hesitant after the disaster that was Kei Igawa. Sabathia also probably opts out and gets a massive extension. They might be a little more cautious than usual.
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Post#45 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 3:12 pm by LBJSeizedMyID

Not to mention Dice-K with the Red Sox. Still somewhat skeptical, but the times I've seen Darvish pitch, his slider has some crazy movement.
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Post#46 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 4:40 pm by PimpHandStrong

LBJSeizedMyID wrote:Not to mention Dice-K with the Red Sox. Still somewhat skeptical, but the times I've seen Darvish pitch, his slider has some crazy movement.
Plus, Darvish's numbers in Japan are better than Dice-K's.
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Post#47 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 6:39 pm by JYD

Just saw a youtube vid of him and he's very impressive...tight, hard slider he can throw for strikes, a straight fastball, and the 2 seamer that runs in and saws off righties. How's his change and splitter? If either of those pitches are plus then I can see him being dominant.
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Post#48 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 7:46 pm by flatjacket1

If we did sign him it would make or break this decade for the Jays.
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Post#49 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 8:04 pm by PimpHandStrong

flatjacket1 wrote:If we did sign him it would make or break this decade for the Jays.
Not really. As has been pointed out, the increased revenue he'd create would likely offset his salary and posting fee. Since the Jays would still have their minor league system in tact, they would remain just as flexible as ever. It really seems like a no-brainer. Hopefully Rogers steps up to the plate on this one.
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Post#50 Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 20
Thu Sep 1, 2011 11:56 pm by Lucky26

Gotta love multiculturism. Who would've thunk it, you get an Iranian and a Jap together, you get a Yu Darvish. Probably one of the most unique names in the world, along with his talent.
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