2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

Al_Oliver · Post #241 » by **Al_Oliver** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:12 am

dballislife wrote:dam looks like cecil is done, hutch is ahead of him in call ups

according to Sal, he's already regaining some velocity (fluff piece on Sportsnet)

Graham's Cracker · Post #242 » by **Graham's Cracker** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:23 am

Ho hum Snydergaard throws 3 shutout innings with 6 k's no walks and 2 hits

Post #243 » by **Schad** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:30 am

flatjacket1 wrote:This is actually a great question. There are a couple reasons D'Arnaud won't move:
1. He would lose positional value. What is positional value you ask? It is the small bonus of WAR (Win Above Replacement) that players get added to their total for playing more demanding defensive positions. So basically, unless D'Arnaud moves to SS or CF, he will lose 0.5 WAR, and if he moved to 1B he would lose 2 WAR. The theory is that a 1B with a .300/.380/.580 line is less impressive than a catcher with the exact same line. To find premium offensive talent at certain positions is hard and thus players are compensated in the statistical world.

And 2 WAR is rather massive; stick the best catcher in the league last year by WAR (Matt Wieters) at first base and you end up with a player who is merely solid-to-good.

flatjacket1 · Post #244 » by **flatjacket1** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:48 am

Schadenfreude wrote:And 2 WAR is rather massive; stick the best catcher in the league last year by WAR (Matt Wieters) at first base and you end up with a player who is merely solid-to-good.

2 WAR is massive. It is the difference between a solid starter and an All-Star according to BR. Very good comparison.

Essentially you should try to avoid moving your catcher to 1B at all cost, unless hes in the rare circumstance where he packs serious punch offensively (Catchers need more days off which means less days in the lineup, so moving great bats to 1B or another defensive position makes sense. Of course in the AL you could DH them instead of days off but they still lose positional value and rob you of a DH spot).

D'Arnaud looks to have a good enough bat to be potentially an All-Star at his position, but not quite good enough to warrant a move to another position.

-MetA4- · Post #245 » by **-MetA4-** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 1:54 am

flatjacket1 wrote:Daniel Norris is ranked 7th overall in our system being of similar age and also hasn't thrown a pitch yet.

No argument there; Norris has the benefit of being a highly regarded draft prospect from a strong HS pitching class, and generally you're going to see people over-rank newly drafted high profile kids and be much more cautious with international teens. Their age also isn't that "similar"; Norris is nearly 2 years older (Apr '93 versus July '95).

It's worth noting that Osuna reportedly cost twice as much as Norris to sign.

No he didn't. BA's final international overview had us paying $1.5 million to buy out Osuna. Because he was property of a pro team; Osuna received 25% of that sum ($375,000) with the rest going to his organization. Norris was signed for $2 million.

hyper316 · Post #246 » by **hyper316** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 2:14 am

Al_Oliver wrote:
dballislife wrote:dam looks like cecil is done, hutch is ahead of him in call ups

according to Sal, he's already regaining some velocity (fluff piece on Sportsnet)

dont worry, AA is just trying to increase Cecil's trade value (if any).

flatjacket1 · Post #247 » by **flatjacket1** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 2:57 am

-MetA4- wrote:No he didn't. BA's final international overview had us paying $1.5 million to buy out Osuna. Because he was property of a pro team; Osuna received 25% of that sum ($375,000) with the rest going to his organization. Norris was signed for $2 million.

Fair enough, but still I think he is underrated. Any 15 year old that pitches at a AA level (according to the Sun) and has advanced feel for potential plus secondary pitches is a dominant prospect. I feel like he could be in New Hampshire by 18.

-MetA4- · Post #248 » by **-MetA4-** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:11 am

flatjacket1 wrote:I feel like he could be in New Hampshire by 18.

He's going to be 17 in July; so this is really pushing it...he'll be 18 next season. Pretty safe to assume that since he's going to be in rookie ball this year that he's extremely unlikely to make it up at AA next season.

-MetA4- · Post #249 » by **-MetA4-** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:13 am

flatjacket1 wrote:
-MetA4- wrote:Any 15 year old that pitches at a AA level (according to the Sun)

This is also clearly a ridiculous over-exaggeration by a newspaper. If he was pitching at a AA level he wouldn't be in extended spring training right now waiting to be placed on a short-season team.

flatjacket1 · Post #250 » by **flatjacket1** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:19 am

-MetA4- wrote:
flatjacket1 wrote:
-MetA4- wrote:Any 15 year old that pitches at a AA level (according to the Sun)

This is also clearly a ridiculous over-exaggeration by a newspaper. If he was pitching at a AA level he wouldn't be in extended spring training right now waiting to be placed on a short-season team.

BR says he pitched in AAA as a 16 year old.

And if he has a good time in rookie ball, he could finish the season in Lansing. Next season he could easily make NH's roster pending a good stint in Lansing. I bet he sees at least an inning in AA ball before he turns 19 (so his age 18 season).

-MetA4- · Post #251 » by **-MetA4-** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:35 am

flatjacket1 wrote:BR says he pitched in AAA as a 16 year old.

He pitched in the Mexican league; not AAA. Some would argue that the Mexican league "compares to AA or AAA"; but its not a direct correlation at all. Either way; the hype on Osuna was that he pitched in the Mexican league and didn't look utterly terrible. Its not that he even pitched well or anything, its that he managed to compete with guys nearly twice his age. The key here is that "competing" doesn't mean that he "pitched at a AA or AAA level"; his performance would be considered bad if you were talking about someone who wasn't 16 years old.

And if he has a good time in rookie ball, he could finish the season in Lansing. Next season he could easily make NH's roster pending a good stint in Lansing. I bet he sees at least an inning in AA ball before he turns 19 (so his age 18 season).

No offense; but I couldn't disagree more. I'd put it at less than 3% likelihood that he sees AA next season, and thats being generous. The Jays have a gold-mine of pitching in the low minors and have absolutely zero need to fast track any extremely young pitcher. Look at the way they are babying Syndergaard and Nicolino in Lansing; neither of those two will touch AA this year and you expect Osuna to do so next season? It isn't likely at all. Nicolino in particular is extremely polished for a pitcher of his age and he's not going to touch AA this season.

Post #252 » by **Schad** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:38 am

flatjacket1 wrote:BR says he pitched in AAA as a 16 year old.

It's not really an apples-to-apples comparison between the Mexican League and the PCL or IL, and Osuna wasn't exactly a regular...nor was he particularly prepared for that level.

And if he has a good time in rookie ball, he could finish the season in Lansing. Next season he could easily make NH's roster pending a good stint in Lansing. I bet he sees at least an inning in AA ball before he turns 19 (so his age 18 season).

Possible, but not terribly likely; the Jays haven't been overly aggressive with the youngsters. Even Syndergaard and Nicolino, who have had surreal starts to their careers and are a couple levels above Osuna, may not make New Hampshire by the end of next season. If Osuna gets so much as half a season in Lansing by the end of 2013, he'll have done extremely well for himself.

Edit: as usual, I should refresh the bloody thread before hitting submit, we basically made the the same post.

-MetA4- · Post #253 » by **-MetA4-** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:43 am

Its more likely that he repeats short-season ball like Adonys Cardona did than it is that he hits AA next season. Seriously.

Leolovinliberal · Post #254 » by **Leolovinliberal** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:24 am

Tuuk wrote:
KayJay_02 wrote:Random Question:
Since JPA wont move positions for reasons we already know, what about D'Arnaud switching positions, maybe to first. I know its late for him to move, and he probably wont move, but its just a thought.

I don't think you ever move a talent like him from catcher, where he is definitely most valuable to the organization. The solution to this jam will be trading, quality big league catchers are a rare commodity, changing positions to keep them is a waste of a valuable resource.

Craig Biggio, Dale Murphy and Brandon Inge come to mind off of the top of my head.

Leolovinliberal · Post #255 » by **Leolovinliberal** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:27 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
flatjacket1 wrote:This is actually a great question. There are a couple reasons D'Arnaud won't move:
1. He would lose positional value. What is positional value you ask? It is the small bonus of WAR (Win Above Replacement) that players get added to their total for playing more demanding defensive positions. So basically, unless D'Arnaud moves to SS or CF, he will lose 0.5 WAR, and if he moved to 1B he would lose 2 WAR. The theory is that a 1B with a .300/.380/.580 line is less impressive than a catcher with the exact same line. To find premium offensive talent at certain positions is hard and thus players are compensated in the statistical world.

And 2 WAR is rather massive; stick the best catcher in the league last year by WAR (Matt Wieters) at first base and you end up with a player who is merely solid-to-good.

Solid to good? Isn't that redundant? I'd still take Weiters over Lind at first.

Post #256 » by **Schad** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:38 am

Leolovinliberal wrote:Solid to good? Isn't that redundant? I'd still take Weiters over Lind at first.

Of course you're likely to take Weiters over Lind; does not make it a good decision, however.

Let's use the WAR produced by Weiters, Lind and Arencibia in 2011. Weiters at catcher was worth 5 WAR; Lind at 1B was worth 0.5 WAR. Together, they would be worth 5.5 WAR. Conversely, a combination of Weiters at 1B (3.0 WAR) and Arencibia catching (0.9 WAR) would have been worth 3.9 WAR...thus, you'd be much better off having Lind at first and Weiters behind the plate, even if Lind is the weakest player as a standalone.

Randle McMurphy · Post #257 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 5:35 am

I agree, Schad. But if anybody deserves to have their named spelled wrong in this discussion, it's Linde, not Wieters.

Post #258 » by **Schad** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:11 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:I agree, Schad. But if anybody deserves to have their named spelled wrong in this discussion, it's Linde, not Wieters.

Couple years of German have pretty thoroughly screwed me over when it comes to spelling his name...weiter is a common word, wieter means nothing as far as I'm aware. So I can hardly be blamed because he spells his name wrong, even though his heritage is probably Dutch or something.

satyr9 · Post #259 » by **satyr9** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:35 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:I agree, Schad. But if anybody deserves to have their named spelled wrong in this discussion, it's Linde, not Wieters.

Couple years of German have pretty thoroughly screwed me over when it comes to spelling his name...weiter is a common word, wieter means nothing as far as I'm aware. So I can hardly be blamed because he spells his name wrong, even though his heritage is probably Dutch or something.

<In my best terrible angry German accent> Next haup fur zee Baltimore Orioles, Katcher Macht Weiter!

And based on the hype, he should.

Relentless88 · Post #260 » by **Relentless88** » Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:39 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:
KayJay_02 wrote:Random Question:
Since JPA wont move positions for reasons we already know, what about D'Arnaud switching positions, maybe to first. I know its late for him to move, and he probably wont move, but its just a thought.

Neither one is likely to be particularly valuable at first.

D'Arnaud had a .900+ OPS in AA last year. Doesn't that give him middle of the order potential?