2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Al_Oliver]

i mean if your a minor league player, why would u ever want to be in the JAYS system. With all that depth there are plently of guys ready to play at the next stage... but unfortunately many never had a chance from the start.

David Cooper is good enough to play in the MLB, or atleast he's proven that at the minor league level. Moises Sierra is hugely under rated and has no MLB starts list in his future. Travis Snider will make it to the MLB but he is literally taring up the minors but JAYS can afford to keep him there longer. Drew Hutchison will be sent down as soon as McGowan is ready. Chad Jenkins, Chad Beck, Deck McGuire and rest of the star studed pitchers have an uphill battle, while in any other system, they'd be getting MLB experience.

Would you really want to be a minor league player in this system?

If you produce when you do get a chance in the Big Leagues, then you will get an opportunity here or elsewhere. Same as most organizations... Frankly, I don't see the issue

[WpgPage]

I understand your frustrations with Lind but Cooper is not the answer, his stats are clearly PCL biased add that to the fact that every single talent evaluation agency with any credibility has dismissed him as a AAAA player and it looks pretty clear. I don't believe every word that KLaw or BA or BP say but when everyone of them is saying the same thing and scouts are agreeing with them I think its pretty clear. Have you ever actually looked at his swing? Its not great, his bat speed is way below average and his pitch recognition doesn't seem so solid ether. Plus hes an absolute mess at 1B the guy is not a MLB player plain and simple.

[Schad]

The reason his BABIP is so high is because like 1/3rd of his hits were doubles. He popped up a lot but that's because he is shooting for doubles.

This doesn't really make much, if any, sense; why does shooting for doubles lead to a disproportionate rate of pop-ups?

He is a good, serviceable player. I know you love Lind but Cooper should at least be given a shot.[/quote]

I don't love Lind; I scarcely tolerate him. But I don't believe that Cooper is a major league first baseman or DH. His defense at 1B is poor, which raises the bar for his offense even further, and he has yet to prove that he can clear that bar.

[Hendrix]

I understand your frustrations with Lind but Cooper is not the answer, his stats are clearly PCL biased add that to the fact that every single talent evaluation agency with any credibility has dismissed him as a AAAA player and it looks pretty clear. I don't believe every word that KLaw or BA or BP say but when everyone of them is saying the same thing and scouts are agreeing with them I think its pretty clear. Have you ever actually looked at his swing? Its not great, his bat speed is way below average and his pitch recognition doesn't seem so solid ether. Plus hes an absolute mess at 1B the guy is not a MLB player plain and simple.

I'm not sure if he's an MLB player, but I'de like to give him a shot. A high obp% type guy would be not such a bad thing with our current group of sluggers. And it's not like we're going to miss Lind, who himself has played like a replacment level player for a while now. How much worse could Cooper produce?

I don't really agree with some of what you said either. How are his stats cleary PCL inflated? Isn't the PCL all about being an easy place to hit the ball out of the park? Cooper hasn't benifited from that with single digit HR's. He has had an 8% k rate, and a high bb%. Basically he puts the ball in play a lot, draws a lot of walks, and just ends up on base a lot which I don't think are huge factors with playing in Vegas. I'd say a high babip is more the reason with his stats than the PLC. But even if you adjust his babip down to normal he still would of been .300+ in avg, and .400+ in OB%, which are still nice, and I could potentially see being useful to our team even with little ability to put the ball over the wall.

Also I don't really think he's an absolute mess at 1b. He's not great, but he's not absolutly awful either.

[-MetA4-]

Isn't the PCL all about being an easy place to hit the ball out of the park? Cooper hasn't benifited from that with single digit HR's.

No, the PCL inflates everything. There is also the problem of desert-like conditions with hot temperatures which dry out the infields and thus inflate everything hit on the ground as well.

[Relentless88]

I'm not sure if he's an MLB player, but I'de like to give him a shot. A high obp% type guy would be not such a bad thing with our current group of sluggers.

Does Cooper have legit OBP skills or was his high OBP as a result of his high batting average?

Also, I recall Cooper being beyond awful defensively at 1B in his September stint last year.

[Schad]

I'm not sure if he's an MLB player, but I'de like to give him a shot. A high obp% type guy would be not such a bad thing with our current group of sluggers.

Does Cooper have legit OBP skills or was his high OBP as a result of his high batting average?

Also, I recall Cooper being beyond awful defensively at 1B in his September stint last year.

He's a patient hitter, but it's a somewhat limited skill if pitchers can just fire fastballs, as they did during his first time up.

[Hendrix]

No, the PCL inflates everything. There is also the problem of desert-like conditions with hot temperatures which dry out the infields and thus inflate everything hit on the ground as well.

I suggested that even if you normalized his babip (|which should take into account any other PCL inflation), he would still look good # wise. And I don't think theres should be that much of an inflation (or deflation) of k%, and bb%, which are a big part in why his numbers were as good as they were.

Does Cooper have legit OBP skills or was his high OBP as a result of his high batting average?

Also, I recall Cooper being beyond awful defensively at 1B in his September stint last year.

I think low k%, and high bb% are legit-type OBP skills. If they can translate to the majors is up for debate. But I think we should atleast give him a shot, and see what happens. I mean, what do we really have to lose with Lind putting up -0.3War over the last 3 seasons? Even if Cooper does suck balls, the net difference between what we have now, and him would be marginal at worst. Atleast if we promoted him we have the upside of maybe having an asset. If we keep him down there, we have no value in him.

[flatjacket1]

I'm not sure if he's an MLB player, but I'de like to give him a shot. A high obp% type guy would be not such a bad thing with our current group of sluggers.

Does Cooper have legit OBP skills or was his high OBP as a result of his high batting average?

Also, I recall Cooper being beyond awful defensively at 1B in his September stint last year.

He's a patient hitter, but it's a somewhat limited skill if pitchers can just fire fastballs, as they did during his first time up.

In his short stint he managed to OBP .284 (close to Lind's) while struggling. The majority of his hits were for extra bases. He was on pace for 42 doubles and 12 HR over 486 PA.

Lind walked 32 times in 542 AB's. Cooper was on pace to walk 42 times in 486 PA's. I call that "on base skills".

His BABIP at the MLB level was .228, which infers he didn't even get on base as much as he should have, especially considering that his BABIP in the minors was above .357 in all but two of his minor league levels/seasons.

Cooper projects to be a high on base, doubles hitter with decent defense. -4.0 UZR/150 for a player who it was his first time playing on turf is good. (Snider for example was -20 UZR/150 his first time on turf) It's also worth noting that Lind actually is fielding worse than Cooper was last year according to UZR/150.

I'm not arguing the kid is our best hitter in the minors or anything crazy like that, but rather in this experimental season, it might make sense to trade Lind/platoon him and give Cooper a shot, just to see if hes worth keeping before we trade him.

Leading AAA in batting average means he can at least contend with .300. He was better than a lot of players in an extremely large sample size.

[Relentless88]

I agree I wouldn't mind giving him a shot if Lind continues to contribute little. However, I'm not too optimistic about his chances if, like mentioned by others above, almost every scout has pegged him as a AAAA player.

On that note, do we have any other 1B prospects worth monitoring?

[WpgPage]

I know the numbers look good but this is a case where scouting has to take precedent the guy simply does not have the bat speed to hit in the majors and that's not a skill hes going to develop. Hes not a major league player he would be significantly worse than Lind. As for his D hes is terrible watch a few of him games on MiLB and it becomes very clear very quickly.

[-MetA4-]

I suggested that even if you normalized his babip (|which should take into account any other PCL inflation), he would still look good # wise.

His numbers would still look good; but what does it mean...if anything? Arencibia hit .301 with a much more normal .306 BABIP (compared to Cooper's .380) in Las Vegas and he's barely a low .200's hitter in the majors. Cooper was up for ~20 full games worth of at-bats last season and he hit .211...yeah; its not a huge sample size, but I fail to see anything to suggest that he can hit anywhere near well enough to be even as valuable as Lind is. With his lack of power he needs to be either a very high average (like .300+) or very high walk guy to be worth anything; and I see nothing to suggest that Cooper can be great in either of those two categories.

[flatjacket1]

I know the numbers look good but this is a case where scouting has to take precedent the guy simply does not have the bat speed to hit in the majors and that's not a skill hes going to develop. Hes not a major league player he would be significantly worse than Lind. As for his D hes is terrible watch a few of him games on MiLB and it becomes very clear very quickly.

I haven't missed a game on MiLB yet and his defense is fine. Even when he made some easy mistakes in the show he still rated higher than Lind did this year.

Scouting is important but you can't look the best hitter in AAA in the eye and say "Sorry your swing is garbage", he is obviously doing enough right to earn him a spot on an MLB roster.

Lind is awful, and this is a experimental year so why wait?

[flatjacket1]

I suggested that even if you normalized his babip (|which should take into account any other PCL inflation), he would still look good # wise.

His numbers would still look good; but what does it mean...if anything? Arencibia hit .301 with a much more normal .306 BABIP (compared to Cooper's .380) in Las Vegas and he's barely a low .200's hitter in the majors. Cooper was up for ~20 full games worth of at-bats last season and he hit .211...yeah; its not a huge sample size, but I fail to see anything to suggest that he can hit anywhere near well enough to be even as valuable as Lind is. With his lack of power he needs to be either a very high average (like .300+) or very high walk guy to be worth anything; and I see nothing to suggest that Cooper can be great in either of those two categories.

Isn't it a rule of thumb with BABIP to look at their career numbers too? Cooper has had an incredibly high BABIP his whole career. It's just like LOB%, some players naturally have higher %'s.

Cooper was on pace (whilst struggling) to walk 25% more than Lind and he also was on pace to hit almost 3 times as many doubles. He can hit.

[WpgPage]

I just can't possibly see a scenario where he sticks in the bigs with that swing, if there was even a chance he could stick I would be all for it but it just seems like a waist of time from my point of view. Now if you see something there then I get wanting him up totally I just don't see it. Next time your watching him watch how early he starts his swing and image how he would fare against a major league change up.

[flatjacket1]

I just can't possibly see a scenario where he sticks in the bigs with that swing, if there was even a chance he could stick I would be all for it but it just seems like a waist of time from my point of view. Now if you see something there then I get wanting him up totally I just don't see it. Next time your watching him watch how early he starts his swing and image how he would fare against a major league change up.

Well I guess you should be a Major league scout, only 10% of the time did he see the changeup so apparently they think they can beat him with fastballs. (43%)

Also as per fangraphs he had most difficulty with the curveball and the sinker and was most successful against the cutter and the 4 seamer.

[-MetA4-]

Cooper was on pace (whilst struggling) to walk 25% more than Lind and he also was on pace to hit almost 3 times as many doubles. He can hit.

Lind's wOBA last season was .315...Cooper's was .295. He was worse than Lind, easily. "He can hit"? He was hitting .211 in Toronto; he was hitting ~.258 in over a thousand AA bats in a much more statistically relevant league than the PCL. Lind had a full season in the majors that blows away Cooper's entire minor league career.

[-MetA4-]

Scouting is important but you can't look the best hitter in AAA in the eye and say "Sorry your swing is garbage"

Yes you can. See: Brandon Wood.

[flatjacket1]

Cooper was on pace (whilst struggling) to walk 25% more than Lind and he also was on pace to hit almost 3 times as many doubles. He can hit.

Lind's wOBA last season was .315...Cooper's was .295. He was worse than Lind, easily. "He can hit"? He was hitting .211 in Toronto; he was hitting ~.258 in over a thousand AA bats in a much more statistically relevant league than the PCL. Lind had a full season in the majors that blows away Cooper's entire minor league career.

I was looking at walks, not OBP. OBP includes BA which isn't needed which deciding eye.

He also hit a lot of HR's as a younger player who wasn't supposed to have much power. You don't got from mediocre in AA to batting title in AAA unless you have some form of improvements, just as most prospects improve year to year.

Fine, let's agree to disagree then. You want Lind and I want Cooper. Clearly we aren't getting anywhere.

[Schad]

Cooper's walk rate last year wasn't actually all that great; an OBP-BA of .75 is plenty solid, but it's not otherworldly, given that BB% tends to dip significantly upon arrival in the bigs.