2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

Randle McMurphy · Post #301 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 5:31 am

flatjacket1 wrote:
Lateral Quicks wrote:Snider 2 for 2 with a walk so far tonight, and continues to OPS in the 1.3 range. What a beast. I continue to be impressed by his newfound plate discipline. 6 K's vs 9 BB over ~60PA. That'll play.

If he keeps this up, I'm confident he will be up by the deadline.

He'll be up by May if Thames doesn't start hitting, I think.

Michael Bradley · Post #302 » by **Michael Bradley** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:14 pm

Yeah, Snider killing AAA doesn't really mean anything at this point. He has done it before. He really needs to play everyday in the Majors. If Thames continues to suck, that opportunity may come sooner rather than later.

Trilogy · Post #303 » by **Trilogy** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:28 pm

Snider dominating AAA doesn't mean so much, especially in the PCL, but I think the difference in his BB% and K% is worth noting, as they are both pretty different so far from his historical numbers in the majors/minors, even if it is only through 64 PA.

Al_Oliver · Post #304 » by **Al_Oliver** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:31 pm

satyr9 wrote:
Al_Oliver wrote:Good point, do you think that is that what happened?
Now that Hutch seems to be getting the start, I have no problem with the move they made...

Well now that it's Hutch it becomes harder to judge anything, 'cause I find the move borderline insane. I would say after using Carreno first that he was still the first option for 5th when needed, so if he didn't come back it was because they didn't like something about his performance either in that start or in the minor ones subsequently. That part seems like a reasonable assumption.

However, their willingness to burn Laffey seems to suggest they knew they weren't going to him (I don't think it was an oversight, nothing suggests they can't calculate this situation out a week or two in advance), which weirds me out about Carreno too. If they didn't like Carreno and knew they wouldn't need Laffey, then they'd already decided to use Hutch and I can't imagine how they'd come to that conclusion that quickly. Now, maybe they meant to use Laffey, hence the call-up, then something happened that made them decide to go with Hutch (this would still be a while back) so they called up Crawford for the help until they needed Hutch.

This is all kind of ridiculous speculation, but I don't understand what happened to make them decide Drew was the guy to get the slot, when he's got so little experience.

seems like burning through Cecil and McGowan has put everything on the fast track. which is a bit of an organizational shift with prospects to push them faster than necessary, rather than being patient to a fault. we'll find out tonight how smart or silly the decision looks...

Lateral Quicks · Post #305 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 5:06 pm

Yes Snider always kills the minors, but the big difference is that so far this year he's doing it while at the same time maintaining fantastic plate discipline. We need to see a larger sample, but that's been very encouraging so far.

flatjacket1 · Post #306 » by **flatjacket1** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:00 am

Snider is 1 for 2 so far in Vegas, but with 1 K

Graham's Cracker · Post #307 » by **Graham's Cracker** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:47 am

Snider HR 2-3 so far 15-game hitting streak.

Garmfay · Post #308 » by **Garmfay** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:40 am

3-4. Its too easy. Get rid of Thames man he isn't doing much

flatjacket1 · Post #309 » by **flatjacket1** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:40 pm

Snider with a K in this game so far, but also with a 1 RBI double.

So far D'Arnaud is 1 for 2 with a sac fly, coming up again soon. The one hit was a double.

number15 · Post #310 » by **number15** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 1:12 am

i mean if your a minor league player, why would u ever want to be in the JAYS system. With all that depth there are plently of guys ready to play at the next stage... but unfortunately many never had a chance from the start.

David Cooper is good enough to play in the MLB, or atleast he's proven that at the minor league level. Moises Sierra is hugely under rated and has no MLB starts list in his future. Travis Snider will make it to the MLB but he is literally taring up the minors but JAYS can afford to keep him there longer. Drew Hutchison will be sent down as soon as McGowan is ready. Chad Jenkins, Chad Beck, Deck McGuire and rest of the star studed pitchers have an uphill battle, while in any other system, they'd be getting MLB experience.

Would you really want to be a minor league player in this system?

flatjacket1 · Post #311 » by **flatjacket1** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 1:25 am

number15 wrote:i mean if your a minor league player, why would u ever want to be in the JAYS system. With all that depth there are plently of guys ready to play at the next stage... but unfortunately many never had a chance from the start.

David Cooper is good enough to play in the MLB, or atleast he's proven that at the minor league level. Moises Sierra is hugely under rated and has no MLB starts list in his future. Travis Snider will make it to the MLB but he is literally taring up the minors but JAYS can afford to keep him there longer. Drew Hutchison will be sent down as soon as McGowan is ready. Chad Jenkins, Chad Beck, Deck McGuire and rest of the star studed pitchers have an uphill battle, while in any other system, they'd be getting MLB experience.

Would you really want to be a minor league player in this system?

Yes, because that would mean once I was ready to be called up, I would be winning, not losing. We are just at the end of "talent acquisition" mode and before the beginning of "condensing talent" mode. 2012 is a year just for us to give those players who need another year in the system another year (Hutch, Gose, Snider, D'Arnaud) and find out what we have in the MLB (If Lind can be a big league 1B, or if Colby can perform like he did in 2010 etc.)

We are just in between modes at the moment. We will start seeing more trades with blocked players shortly.

Post #312 » by **Schad** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 1:26 am

Cooper has not proven that he's good enough to play at the major-league level.

Moises Sierra has only just reached AAA; he hasn't been blocked.

Hutch will be a mainstay in this rotation, and honestly, he's reached the bigs with the Jays faster than he would have with just about any other team.

None of Chad Beck, Deck McGuire, or Chad Jenkins would be in the bigs with another organization. Well, Beck might be the longman with a truly terrible team, but nothing more. Remember, he's a guy that got released by the Diamondbacks at age 23, without reaching AA, and he didn't reach AAA until age 26.

flatjacket1 · Post #313 » by **flatjacket1** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 1:30 am

Schadenfreude wrote:Cooper has not proven that he's good enough to play at the major-league level.

Sorry what? What else can he do to prove it? Get a batting championship? Wait he did that. Rank top 10 in the PCL in on base percentage? He did that too. How about rank top 20 in OPS? Did that too.

You can't argue he still needs to improve before being called up.

EDIT: It's worth noting nobody had more PA and did better, even though he ranked 7th in OBP everybody in front of him had like 250-300 PA...

Post #314 » by **Schad** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 2:06 am

You cannot prove that you're good enough to play at the major-league level until you've played well at the major-league level.

flatjacket1 · Post #315 » by **flatjacket1** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 2:26 am

Schadenfreude wrote:You cannot prove that you're good enough to play at the major-league level until you've played well at the major-league level.

You can't argue he has something left to prove in AAA, which means he is blocked. He could even presently be arguably better than Lind.

-MetA4- · Post #316 » by **-MetA4-** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 2:42 am

flatjacket1 wrote:You can't argue he has something left to prove in AAA, which means he is blocked.

Just because he has nothing left to prove in AAA, doesn't mean he's "blocked". Thats what a 'AAAA' player is. Cooper's problem is that no matter what he does in the minors he will never have the tools needed to be an impact bat at the major league level; and unfortunately for him he is a 1B/DH thus his bat is what determines if he plays or not. He just doesn't project to be an impact 1B.

flatjacket1 · Post #317 » by **flatjacket1** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 2:53 am

-MetA4- wrote:
flatjacket1 wrote:You can't argue he has something left to prove in AAA, which means he is blocked.

Just because he has nothing left to prove in AAA, doesn't mean he's "blocked". Thats what a 'AAAA' player is. Cooper's problem is that no matter what he does in the minors he will never have the tools needed to be an impact bat at the major league level; and unfortunately for him he is a 1B/DH thus his bat is what determines if he plays or not. He just doesn't project to be an impact 1B.

"AAAA" player refers to a player who cannot succeed at the MLB level. David Cooper has never been given a shot, well an extended one anyways and no matter how bad Lind does we will still never consider the player who batted above .360, hit 50+ doubles and had an OBP of nearly .440 in the PCL.

Number don't lie, he can hit. I don't care what the projection is, he needs a look before we trade him. I know its bad to hope a player gets hurt but if Lind gets hurt, that's the only way we will see any trade value for him anyways. He almost outperformed Lind while struggling immensely during his September call up. Hit a couple balls off the wall in straight away center, more than half of his hits were for extra bases.

His BABIP was well below league average (he put the ball in play) and his ISO was higher than it was in AAA.

Cooper deserves a shot, at least a look before we give up on him. The only way that happens is via injury.

Post #318 » by **Schad** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 3:01 am

Couple things...one, Cooper hasn't proven that he can hit. He has had one good minor league season after several mediocre ones, and it involved him posting a BABIP of .381. Two, as you know, there are a couple caveats that come with BABIP, and one of them is infield fly rate; Cooper popped the ball up with staggering frequency. His BABIP wasn't terribly anomalous otherwise.

-MetA4- · Post #319 » by **-MetA4-** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 3:35 am

flatjacket1 wrote:"AAAA" player refers to a player who cannot succeed at the MLB level. David Cooper has never been given a shot

Thats because behind the numbers there is real scouting going on in the minor leagues. Cooper hasn't been given a "real" shot because he's not much of a prospect.

and no matter how bad Lind does we will still never consider the player who batted above .360, hit 50+ doubles and had an OBP of nearly .440 in the PCL.

You just answered it yourself: its the PCL. The organization has scouts and coaches looking at Cooper daily; the reality is that no one believes his PCL batting will translate at all to the MLB.

Number don't lie, he can hit.

Numbers do lie. In the previous 2 seasons in AA he was a sub .260 hitter with .729 and .769 OPS...then he gets to the PCL and all of a sudden he's hitting .360+ with a near 1.000 OPS? Its a complete mirage. He does not have the bat needed to play the position he plays (1B/DH). Hechavarria hits .235 in New Hampshire and .389 in Las Vegas in the same season: the numbers in the PCL mean next to nothing.

Thats the thing we generally seem to forget. All we see is numbers; whereas success in the major leagues requires certain attributes that the numbers often hide. Even AAA; the closest step from the MLB, is a huge downgrade in competition. We see a guy hitting .320+ when in reality the scouting report on that same player could put him as a player that will never hit over .250 in the majors. Brad Mills had no problem putting up great results even in the batting-inflated PCL yet he's never going to be even an average MLB pitcher. Go Tweet any minor-league baseball writer; there isn't one person that thinks that Cooper can be a starting-quality 1B.

flatjacket1 · Post #320 » by **flatjacket1** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 1:20 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:Couple things...one, Cooper hasn't proven that he can hit. He has had one good minor league season after several mediocre ones, and it involved him posting a BABIP of .381. Two, as you know, there are a couple caveats that come with BABIP, and one of them is infield fly rate; Cooper popped the ball up with staggering frequency. His BABIP wasn't terribly anomalous otherwise.

The reason his BABIP is so high is because like 1/3rd of his hits were doubles. He popped up a lot but that's because he is shooting for doubles.

He is a good, serviceable player. I know you love Lind but Cooper should at least be given a shot.