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2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#221 » by illy » Sun Apr 15, 2012 10:56 pm

i disagree. relief pitching is always gonna be a revolving door. most relievers arent good every year, thats why you see them jump from team to team unless their a setup man or closer. you can't really "build relief pitchers from the minors" you take what you can get it. i think cecil still has value, i rather not have him turned into a reliever. another team might take a stab at him and we might get something in return, similar to the morrow/league deal.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#222 » by flatjacket1 » Sun Apr 15, 2012 11:32 pm

illy wrote:i disagree. relief pitching is always gonna be a revolving door. most relievers arent good every year, thats why you see them jump from team to team unless their a setup man or closer. you can't really "build relief pitchers from the minors" you take what you can get it. i think cecil still has value, i rather not have him turned into a reliever. another team might take a stab at him and we might get something in return, similar to the morrow/league deal.


I disagree. All pitchers are volatile, even Tim Lincecum or Brett Cecil. It's not specific to just relievers. There are still rare players who are consistent on a yearly basis, but Romero is just as likely as Santos to become a 4+ ERA wreck. The main reason you see relievers bounce around so much (especially in FA) is due to the free agent compensation awarded for losing such pitchers. It is almost like a rental system, where you can build and rebuild your bullpen each year and gain 2-4 supplemental picks each time you complete such a process. With the new CBA you will see a lot more value in relievers since not only is compensation harder to qualify for but the pool of teams that's draft picks are protected is significantly smaller (only the bottom 10 teams are protected, which are the teams that are least likely to spend big money on relievers anyways). So basically, unless it is a top reliever that a cheap team can no longer afford, it is very unlikely everything will line up where top flight bullpen talent hits FA.

Basically, the main change this new CBA implements is that quality bullpen arms will be rarer and thus cost more, both in terms of money and even possibly a draft pick. Teams no longer have incentive to drop good bullpen pieces. This will place a premium on bullpen arms. This also makes converting a starter into a reliever an easier process to stomach, as you don't lose as much value.

Most bullpens are built from failed starters. Darren Oliver used to start, Evan Crawford won 47 games and threw 2 no-no's in HS before being converted after failing as a starter in college, Frasor started in the minors, Casey started in the minors (did very well too), Luis Perez started 115 games in the minors, Carlos threw 78 games as a starter in the minors, and Cordero even started as a starter in the minors for his first season before doing terrible and switching to the pen.

I lost count but I think that is every single pitcher in the pen that started as a starter. That isn't even including Jesse Litsch or possibly Cecil.

You can expect our bullpen to only get better with the failure of our uber strong farm arms we will see more and more switch to the pen and some will find success.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#223 » by Schad » Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:01 am

The only question with Jackson's defense involves his arm...it used to be great, which would allow him to spot in at RF, SS and potentially 3B, but the talk was that he'd lost quite a bit of throwing strength after his injury. If he's regained some (doesn't need to be plus, just above weak) he could have a future even if his swing has some holes...little harder to be a CF/2B/LF only utility player though.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#224 » by Graham's Cracker » Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:50 am

Question for y'all?

Who would you pick as your under the radar Jays prospect for 2012? Who do you think will bust out this year? A few guys already have an early jump.

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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#225 » by There There » Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:53 am

He saw quite a bit of time last year in right and also third IIRC, so I assumed he hasn't lost it completely, but I guess one and one doesn't necessarily equal two in this case

I just would love to see us salvage something... and given the athleticism that got him drafted, this would be a great way to see us salvage some value from him
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#226 » by There There » Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:09 am

Graham's Cracker wrote:Question for y'all?

Who would you pick as your under the radar Jays prospect for 2012? Who do you think will bust out this year? A few guys already have an early jump.

Weigh in


Sean Nolin would have been one of my picks, since had a fairly solid season at Lansing last year and no one really seemed to notice... but given his start, i'd feel bad saying him now

Beyond him and the names already mentioned, i'd probably go with either Andy Burns or Chino "don't call me Jorge Vega-Rosado" Vega ( because it would be really cool to have a breakout prospect named Chino Vega )
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#227 » by Schad » Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:12 am

There There wrote:He saw quite a bit of time last year in right and also third IIRC, so I assumed he hasn't lost it completely, but I guess one and one doesn't necessarily equal two in this case


Agreed; I'd like to see something written to that effect though, simply because I can never make heads or tails out of minor league decision-making...it's always difficult to figure out who is being taught to play multiple positions with an eye to the future, and who is simply being stuck somewhere because you need them to fill a gap so that the gold-plated prospects can stick to their natural positions.

I just would love to see us salvage something... and given the athleticism that got him drafted, this would be a great way to see us salvage some value from him


Absolutely...he was my favourite prospect once upon a time, and there are few if any that I'd like to see make it more. Really sucked when he hurt his arm because he had a pretty intriguing package of tools, and that seemed to really undermine his power and ability to play shortstop, at least full-time.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#228 » by flatjacket1 » Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:26 am

Graham's Cracker wrote:Question for y'all?

Who would you pick as your under the radar Jays prospect for 2012? Who do you think will bust out this year? A few guys already have an early jump.

Weigh in


I think an underrated prospect for 2012 would have to be Roberto Osuna. He was our biggest international FA addition last season but still ranks only at #26 for BBB. He touches mid nineties with his fastball as a 15 year old but sits more around 90, and is supposed to have an advanced feel for his secondary pitches. He pitched at a "AAA" level last season in the Mexican league as a 16 year old (which is more like A ball but still hes 15) and posted a 5 ERA. His 2nd plus pitch is supposed to be his curve ball. He has a lot of question marks, obviously at such a young age he still telegraphs his delivery and hitters around the league claim to know what he is throwing before the ball even leaves his had (from the windup). This is normal for his age though. He has the tools to be a nasty pitcher but is very raw.

Another underrated prospect (I can't name just one!) is David Cooper. He absolutely dominated AAA last season and even had a decent minor league stint. His biggest knock on him is his "lack of power", but if you look at spray charts of when he was in the MLB, and even this became apparent after watching Vegas, he hits up the middle. The only problem is in AAA Vegas, the ball park is 433 feet. So far this year he has hit countless singles up the middle as well as a 420 foot fly ball out. He has power, lots of it (evident by his 50 doubles last season) but unfortunately it to the wrong part of the field. This theory is further proved by his AA stats in a more pitcher friendly league and neutral ballpark, which shows 20 HR's at his age 23 season. Sure he will never blast 30+ HR's in the MLB, but I'd say its reasonable to expect around 20 with a definite .320+ OBP.

My bust for the season has to be Deck McGuire, he has already allowed 5 HR's in only 10 innings of work.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#229 » by Schad » Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:35 am

There There wrote:Beyond him and the names already mentioned, i'd probably go with either Andy Burns or Chino "don't call me Jorge Vega-Rosado" Vega ( because it would be really cool to have a breakout prospect named Chino Vega )


Rosado's a good shout (and yeah, I remember Googling him during that draft...turns out there are an awful lot of convicted drug dealers named Chino Vega, because it took an eternity to find the player).

I'm going to say Danny Barnes, a 22 year old reliever who put up unbelievable strikeout totals last year, and could make it to AAA -- and perhaps even a September callup -- with a good season. He has always had a good fastball, 92-95 with movement and excellent location, and he has a solid changeup; the potential difference-maker is his slider, which was showing real promise last year. He gets that together, he might make the 'pen sooner rather than later; he's pretty solid against both lefties and righties, which could make him a back-end option before too long.

Dickie Thon is another option, though he'll be starting in extended, so it'll be a little more difficult for him to really jump up lists this year. Osuna could be a monster; dunno whether he's an out-of-nowhere guy solely because he was a very highly rated IFA who cost us a significant sum.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#230 » by There There » Mon Apr 16, 2012 2:00 am

Yeah I remember, from your googling, the initial scouting reports in the draft thread that Vega may or may not have been convicted of multiple drug offences... Now that he seems to have embraced the name Chino Vega makes me want to root for him that much more.

Barnes is a more reasonable pick; I didn't realize he topped out with that kind of velocity... With guys like Farquhar and Uviedo not really doing anything to distinguish themselves, and "potential" pen options like Stilson, Dyson and Woj in their "let's see if they stick as starters" stage, I could definitely see a guy like Barnes having a chance to move through the system fairly quickly.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#231 » by -MetA4- » Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:11 am

flatjacket1 wrote:He was our biggest international FA addition last season but still ranks only at #26 for BBB.


He ranked only at #26 because this is a ridiculously deep system and Osuna is a 17 year old that hasn't even thrown a pitch yet. I dont think that makes him "underrated".
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#232 » by WpgPage » Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:22 pm

My breakout guy is well known but I think he will have a great year this season, Aaron Sanchez. He was supposed to be the highest upside guy taken by the Jays in the 2010 draft but had a poor season last year. Command is the issue but the raw stuff is there, I think he drops the walk rate gets the K/BB up above 3 and we start to see a lot of promise from this kid.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#233 » by flatjacket1 » Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:31 pm

-MetA4- wrote:
flatjacket1 wrote:He was our biggest international FA addition last season but still ranks only at #26 for BBB.


He ranked only at #26 because this is a ridiculously deep system and Osuna is a 17 year old that hasn't even thrown a pitch yet. I dont think that makes him "underrated".


Daniel Norris is ranked 7th overall in our system being of similar age and also hasn't thrown a pitch yet. It's worth noting that Osuna reportedly cost twice as much as Norris to sign.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#234 » by Wally West » Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:42 pm

WpgPage wrote:My breakout guy is well known but I think he will have a great year this season, Aaron Sanchez. He was supposed to be the highest upside guy taken by the Jays in the 2010 draft but had a poor season last year. Command is the issue but the raw stuff is there, I think he drops the walk rate gets the K/BB up above 3 and we start to see a lot of promise from this kid.

I'm also pegging Sanchez as the Blue Jays breakout candidate this year. He may have as much upside as Syndergaard if not more. Depends on who you ask. The scary thing is that he's just beginning to fill out his frame from 6'4 190lbs to who knows what. Once he continues to keep his walk rates down, the sky's the limit for this kid.

The hitters I'm really interested in seeing this year are Jacob Anderson and Eric Arce. Both could end up with the Lansing squad by season's end. Two explosive hitters who should continue to open more eyes this year.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#235 » by KayJay_02 » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:31 pm

Random Question:
Since JPA wont move positions for reasons we already know, what about D'Arnaud switching positions, maybe to first. I know its late for him to move, and he probably wont move, but its just a thought.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#236 » by Tuuk » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:37 pm

KayJay_02 wrote:Random Question:
Since JPA wont move positions for reasons we already know, what about D'Arnaud switching positions, maybe to first. I know its late for him to move, and he probably wont move, but its just a thought.


I don't think you ever move a talent like him from catcher, where he is definitely most valuable to the organization. The solution to this jam will be trading, quality big league catchers are a rare commodity, changing positions to keep them is a waste of a valuable resource.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#237 » by vaff87 » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:39 pm

KayJay_02 wrote:Random Question:
Since JPA wont move positions for reasons we already know, what about D'Arnaud switching positions, maybe to first. I know its late for him to move, and he probably wont move, but its just a thought.


His value would go down too much. He's an above average defensive catcher, so unless he has a Bryce Harper bat, he should be kept there. It's a much smarter use of resources to trade one of them.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#238 » by Schad » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:53 pm

KayJay_02 wrote:Random Question:
Since JPA wont move positions for reasons we already know, what about D'Arnaud switching positions, maybe to first. I know its late for him to move, and he probably wont move, but its just a thought.


Neither one is likely to be particularly valuable at first.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#239 » by dballislife » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:55 pm

dam looks like cecil is done, hutch is ahead of him in call ups
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#240 » by flatjacket1 » Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:21 pm

KayJay_02 wrote:Random Question:
Since JPA wont move positions for reasons we already know, what about D'Arnaud switching positions, maybe to first. I know its late for him to move, and he probably wont move, but its just a thought.


This is actually a great question. There are a couple reasons D'Arnaud won't move:
1. He would lose positional value. What is positional value you ask? It is the small bonus of WAR (Win Above Replacement) that players get added to their total for playing more demanding defensive positions. So basically, unless D'Arnaud moves to SS or CF, he will lose 0.5 WAR, and if he moved to 1B he would lose 2 WAR. The theory is that a 1B with a .300/.380/.580 line is less impressive than a catcher with the exact same line. To find premium offensive talent at certain positions is hard and thus players are compensated in the statistical world.

2. (Similar to 1) He would lose trade value. If we traded D'Arnaud for an equally as talented 1B, we would theoretically get a player much more talented due to the positional value I mentioned above.
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