2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Schadenfreude]

Before the injury most people thought he was going to go to Houston at #11 overall in the draft.

This is true, but it had more to do with Houston's draft proclivities rather than where Stilson slotted in on talent alone. They had a longstanding tendency to overdraft players that they could get under contract, which is a large part of the reason that they haven't had a first round pick who produced anything of value since 1998.

[-MetA4-]

Before the injury most people thought he was going to go to Houston at #11 overall in the draft.

Last year's draft was really heavy at the top; Stilson was #23 on BA's list before he got hurt. I think he ultimately would have have in the ~20 range; Matt Barnes ended up going #19 to Boston and he was a higher regarded college RHP (ranked #13 on BA).

[-MetA4-]

Anyways; Noah Syndergaard had a fairly pedestrian outing by his standards as he followed DeSclafani:

3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

6 groundouts, 1 flyout.

[SharoneWright]

All good info.

The obvious place we can all settle is that we are lucky (at this stage) to have gotten him where we got him. Love the strategy.

In fact, based on early reports and small samples this year, he may end up the better prospect than Tyler Beede. Wouldn't that be a kick in the teeth!

[-MetA4-]

In fact, based on early reports and small samples this year, he may end up the better prospect than Tyler Beede.

Hard to really make that comparison right now; Beede still has 2 more years at Vanderbilt before he gets to the point that Stilson is at now.

[flatjacket1]

In fact, based on early reports and small samples this year, he may end up the better prospect than Tyler Beede.

Hard to really make that comparison right now; Beede still has 2 more years at Vanderbilt before he gets to the point that Stilson is at now.

Beede hasn't been the best. He's pitching 1-3, 4.8 ERA, 35.2 IP, 42 hits, 10 walks, 38 K's. That's a decent stat line for a first year player but barring great improvements I just don't see him going in the first round as a college pitcher. With the way the draft is done now, he will almost for sure get less than the reported 2M we offered him. Not paying him 3M worked out in three ways for us; a) it established that the Jays won't crack at the negotiations table. The Jays won't be pushed over or pressured by 1st round picks and b) his numbers in college would translate to an not-worth-3M stat line in rookie ball. Probably wouldn't move through our system that fast. c) Beede reportedly had some questions about the health of his arm which is likely the main reason the Jays backed out, according to some website the father accused the Jays of using "Dr. Discount" to make up an injury and make him sign for less as damaged goods.

Overall I'm quite happy we didn't sign him last year. I'm looking forward to the compensation pick he netted us, even if it likely ends up a lower ceiling college player. (Due to sign-ability concerns.)

That (^) was mainly an update for the casual fan who isn't really following Beede. In response to your post I think it is incredibly unlikely that he reaches the level of Stilson in two years. College players (Pitchers especially) tend to still pitch with their HS mechanics (No reason to change them from the colleges, in the short term it could make the pitchers worse and they are only pitching for you for 4 years.) and get abused by coaches (no reason to worry about preserving arms when you only have them for 4 years). Between those and not being part of an organization that pays you to focus on baseball every day, college pitchers tend to develop much slower. I would even make the case that if Strasburg decided to play pro ball out of HS rather than College, he would be a better player today.

[-MetA4-]

In response to your post I think it is incredibly unlikely that he reaches the level of Stilson in two years.

Its not that unlikely. If Stilson's delivery forces him into relieving like a lot of people believe, then Beede could flop in college and come out projecting as only a #3 starter and still ultimately have more value.

[flatjacket1]

In response to your post I think it is incredibly unlikely that he reaches the level of Stilson in two years.

Its not that unlikely. If Stilson's delivery forces him into relieving like a lot of people believe, then Beede could flop in college and come out projecting as only a #3 starter and still ultimately have more value.

Out of the draft most players are labelled with the highest ceilings they will play under in their careers. I bet once Beede plays two years of pro ball and is like 21/22 years old, nobody will project him to even make a rotation.

I think Stilson is still much more likely to make the show, and provide quality innings. Whether it is from the bullpen or the rotation. He can pitch. Beede isn't doing so hot in college, and relieves in some games. A college reliever can be converted into a starter in pro ball but to be projected as a successful one whose 50th percentile projection is to make a MLB rotation.

Feel free to disagree but we will have to agree to disagree then. From all my years of being a fan of minor league and MLB baseball, I truly believe Stilson will have a better career than Beede which in my mind makes him a better prospect. I have no solid information and don't want to use these "expert" opinions from randoms called "scouts" (It's worth noting amateur scouting is significantly weaker than scouting in the minor and Major leagues.) because they vary too much.

[-MetA4-]

I think Stilson is still much more likely to make the show, and provide quality innings.

No offense; but this isn't much of a prediction. One guy is already pitching in high A and the other is 2 years away from even being drafted again. I never said that Beede is going to be better than Stilson...obviously no one in their right mind would make a statement like that given what I just said above. All I said is that its stupid to make any sort of conclusion until we see what happens with Beede. Obviously right now Stilson >>> Beede; but if Beede ends up going #1 overall 2 years from now and looks like a #1 starter then its an entirely different story (note that I'm not claiming that Beede will go #1; just giving a hypothetical).

Beede isn't doing so hot in college, and relieves in some games.

I dont think this means a whole lot right now. Jed Bradley had a 6.65 ERA his freshman season at Georgia Tech and he just got drafted 15th overall and was generally higher regarding than Stilson even pre-injury. Hell; Bradley had a 4.83 ERA his sophomore season. Matt Barnes had a 5.43 ERA his freshman season; drafted 19th overall, also higher regarded than Stilson was. Vanderbilt and the SEC is a tough school; Beede putting up a ~4.8 ERA doesn't mean that he's all of a sudden a non prospect and will be lucky to get drafted again.

[flatjacket1]

I agree with most of that. All I'm saying is one in the basket is worth 2 in the bush, and Stilson is currently a significantly better player with a higher ceiling. This could all change but I'm looking at 50th percentile projections, and right now Stilson wins.

[SharoneWright]

Well, Met, I'd never argue with you. But you were the one who made this a point of emphasis.

I said Stilson "may" end up a better prospect than Beede "based on small samples this year".

So for you to now say "One guy is already pitching in high A and the other is 2 years away from even being drafted again. I never said that Beede is going to be better than Stilson...obviously no one in their right mind would make a statement like that given what I just said above.",, leaves me a little limp/mystified.

If your point is "its hard to say who will be better", well that's hardly news, and not worth too much. I think my qualifiers made that specific point before you took umbrage.

So who would you take today? Actually quite curious.

[-MetA4-]

All I'm saying is one in the basket is worth 2 in the bush

Sure, although I'm not even sure why we're even having this discussion. Stilson signed for $500k on August 13th and we were still heavily negotiating with Beede all the way up to the 16th...ie: Stilson signing had nothing to do with Beede not signing; its not like one prevented us from getting the other and we had to choose.

and Stilson is currently a significantly better player with a higher ceiling.

Part one is true (Stilson is older, more advanced, already in A+); the second part is purely your opinion. Like I said...if Stilson ends up a reliever and Beede lives up to his billing of a ~#2 starter then clearly Beede has the higher ceiling. Beede's freshman season at Vanderbilt doesn't change his ceiling at all.

[flatjacket1]

Beede's freshman season at Vanderbilt doesn't change his ceiling at all.

This is my only nitpick with your post. The second Beede didn't sign with us, his ceiling with down. College players develop significantly slower. Colleges abuse pitchers (not as much as they used to) in multiple ways.

Even if he pitched 1 ERA baseball the rest of his time in College, it is likely that he would have developed better in baseball. Development with a Major League team that changes your mechanics to protect their investment, who gives you more development hours than a college ever could.

[-MetA4-]

Beede's freshman season at Vanderbilt doesn't change his ceiling at all.

This is my only nitpick with your post. The second Beede didn't sign with us, his ceiling with down. College players develop significantly slower. Colleges abuse pitchers (not as much as they used to) in multiple ways.

Even if he pitched 1 ERA baseball the rest of his time in College, it is likely that he would have developed better in baseball. Development with a Major League team that changes your mechanics to protect their investment, who gives you more development hours than a college ever could.

I dont really understand what you are trying to say here. Obviously college coaching isn't as good as professional coaching...however; how does that automatically lower his ceiling? Gerrit Cole was a first round pick out of HS, didn't sign, and ended up going #1 last draft and his ceiling obviously didn't budge at all (if anything it rose because he began throwing high 90's in college).

[flatjacket1]

Beede's freshman season at Vanderbilt doesn't change his ceiling at all.

This is my only nitpick with your post. The second Beede didn't sign with us, his ceiling with down. College players develop significantly slower. Colleges abuse pitchers (not as much as they used to) in multiple ways.

Even if he pitched 1 ERA baseball the rest of his time in College, it is likely that he would have developed better in baseball. Development with a Major League team that changes your mechanics to protect their investment, who gives you more development hours than a college ever could.

I dont really understand what you are trying to say here. Obviously college coaching isn't as good as professional coaching...however; how does that automatically lower his ceiling? Gerrit Cole was a first round pick out of HS, didn't sign, and ended up going #1 last draft and his ceiling obviously didn't budge at all (if anything it rose because he began throwing high 90's in college).

I would argue that is because the draft is a crapshoot. Cole would have still developed better in a minor league system. David Cooper was selected one pick after Lawrie and Ethan Martin was selected one pick before. Both nobodies.

College players are near the end of their development and HS players are near the beginning. That is the reason we likely won't draft Beede the second time around. Age is everything.

Nearly a quarter-century ago, Bill James addressed this very point in the 1987 edition of his Abstract:

Suppose that you have a 20-year-old player and a 21-year-old player of the same ability as hitters; let’s say that each hits about .265 with ten home runs. How much difference is there in the expected career home run totals for the two players?”

As best I can estimate, the 20-year-old player can be expected to hit about 61% more home runs in his career. That’s right—61%.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15295