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2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#346 » by flatjacket1 » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:04 pm

-MetA4- wrote:...

IMO your wrong. Everything you just said. Agree to disagree it is.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#347 » by -MetA4- » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:10 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:IMO your wrong. Everything you just said..


I'm wrong that Cooper hit an infield fly-ball nearly 25% of the time last year when he was called up? :lol:

Let me explain BABIP to you: low BABIP only signifies "bad luck" if the player in question is also posting healthy batted-ball splits. A player that is hitting a ton of line drives yet has a very low BABIP is being unlucky. A player who is popping the ball up 25% of the time and rightfully has a very low BABIP is not unlucky; he is simply not making good contact. Cooper hit at a 15.3% LD rate and a 24.2% IFFB rate: that is trash.

You're telling me to "look at his BABIP". I just did. His low BABIP was a result of him being a poor hitter.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#348 » by flatjacket1 » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:18 pm

-MetA4- wrote:
flatjacket1 wrote:IMO your wrong. Everything you just said..


I'm wrong that Cooper hit an infield fly-ball nearly 25% of the time last year when he was called up? :lol:

Let me explain BABIP to you: low BABIP only signifies "bad luck" if the player in question is also posting healthy batted-ball splits. A player that is hitting a ton of line drives yet has a very low BABIP is being unlucky. A player who is popping the ball up 25% of the time and rightfully has a very low BABIP is not unlucky; he is simply not making good contact. Cooper hit at a 15.3% LD rate and a 24.2% IFFB rate: that is trash.

You're telling me to "look at his BABIP". I just did. His low BABIP was a result of him being a poor hitter.


His BABIP was out of line of career averages.
If a player has a very high or very low BABIP, it means that whatever the reason for the spike (whether it’s defense, luck, or slight skill), that player will regress back to their career BABIP rate. BABIP rates are flaky and prone to vary wildly from year to year, so we should always take any extreme BABIP rates with a grain of salt.


I didn't think I'd have to link you to fangraphs for you to finally read what I have posted several times but I guess there's a first for everything.

Go back and re read fangraphs glossary. You might learn a thing or six.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#349 » by J.Kim » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:34 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:
-MetA4- wrote:
flatjacket1 wrote:IMO your wrong. Everything you just said..


I'm wrong that Cooper hit an infield fly-ball nearly 25% of the time last year when he was called up? :lol:

Let me explain BABIP to you: low BABIP only signifies "bad luck" if the player in question is also posting healthy batted-ball splits. A player that is hitting a ton of line drives yet has a very low BABIP is being unlucky. A player who is popping the ball up 25% of the time and rightfully has a very low BABIP is not unlucky; he is simply not making good contact. Cooper hit at a 15.3% LD rate and a 24.2% IFFB rate: that is trash.

You're telling me to "look at his BABIP". I just did. His low BABIP was a result of him being a poor hitter.


His BABIP was out of line of career averages.
If a player has a very high or very low BABIP, it means that whatever the reason for the spike (whether it’s defense, luck, or slight skill), that player will regress back to their career BABIP rate. BABIP rates are flaky and prone to vary wildly from year to year, so we should always take any extreme BABIP rates with a grain of salt.


I didn't think I'd have to link you to fangraphs for you to finally read what I have posted several times but I guess there's a first for everything.

Go back and re read fangraphs glossary. You might learn a thing or six.


Just... Stop. Please.

You cannot look at BABIP as the end-all-be-all, panacea of batted ball data. You need to take a look at that in conjunction with Batted Ball Data to have an accurate view of how a player's BABIP would affect him. In the Fangraphs definition it even says:

"Line drives go for hits more often than groundballs, and groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs."

I'm not exactly sure what kind of hitter Cooper was in the minors without Batted Ball data, but it seems very certain that David Cooper was trending towards a player that MetA4 described, and if that's the case he's less likely to be impacted by a wildly fluctuating BABIP.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#350 » by -MetA4- » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:35 pm

Gee; I wonder if his "out of line" BABIP may be due to the fact that he's facing freaking major-league pitching and not dicking around with minor league pitchers, or worse yet the PCL where Adeiny Hechavarria can look like Ichiro with the bat. Major League pitching made him pop the ball up 24% of the time last season. He was bad at the plate; and his .211 batting average showed that.

Adam Lind's BABIP is well below his career average as well yet I dont see you riding his nuts. Lind on the other hand actually has seasons of high BABIP at the Major League level to boot: he had a .317 BABIP in 2008 and a .323 BABIP in 2009. His BABIP the last 2 seasons if well below that...do you know why? Because his hitting ability has deteriorated for whatever reason.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#351 » by flatjacket1 » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:49 pm

-MetA4- wrote:Gee; I wonder if his "out of line" BABIP may be due to the fact that he's facing freaking major-league pitching and not dicking around with minor league pitchers, or worse yet the PCL where Adeiny Hechavarria can look like Ichiro with the bat. Major League pitching made him pop the ball up 24% of the time last season. He was bad at the plate; and his .211 batting average showed that.

Adam Lind's BABIP is well below his career average as well yet I dont see you riding his nuts. Lind on the other hand actually has seasons of high BABIP at the Major League level to boot: he had a .317 BABIP in 2008 and a .323 BABIP in 2009. His BABIP the last 2 seasons if well below that...do you know why? Because his hitting ability has deteriorated for whatever reason.


A Rod hits 27.3% IFFB, Edwin 29% and Josh Willingham 26.5% in 2011.

Great use of statistics

For the last time, agree to disagree. All this is turning into is a fight, it no longer even contains any logic. I watch a lot of Cooper games and I love AAA baseball, I clearly am not going to shift my views to accommodate some random poster.

This is the last post I am making on this matter (I'm still going to use this thread obviously).
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#352 » by -MetA4- » Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:43 am

flatjacket1 wrote:A Rod hits 27.3% IFFB


In a freaking 15 game sample to start this season. You conveniently left that part out. A-Rod has had a sub 10% IFFB rate in each of the last 4 seasons,

Edwin 29%


In 15 games in 2012. 17.2% in 2011, 15.8% in 2010.

and Josh Willingham 26.5% in 2011.


Uhh, no. Willingham was 15.1% in 2011. You are once again looking at this year's numbers; which are based off a 16 game sample :roll: .

Great use of statistics


Are you serious kid? I'm trying to be nice but my patience is running thin. Yes, great use of statistics in trying to tell me that 3 guys are hitting at 25%+ IFFB rate in the freaking 15 game start to the 2012 season. What did you think, that I wasn't going to actually look at those numbers after you posted them? Strong frauding.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#353 » by Tyrone Slothrop » Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:50 am

Can't we just get back to talking about how much we love Syndergaard, Sanchez and Nicolino????
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#354 » by flatjacket1 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:51 am

Tyrone Slothrop wrote:Can't we just get back to talking about how much we love Syndergaard, Sanchez and Nicolino????


I love Syndergaard. Kid's an ace in the making.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#355 » by Relentless88 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:54 am

Anybody know what happened to Cecil? He was placed on the 7 day DL?

Carreno with 3 earned runs in 2 innings so far.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#356 » by -MetA4- » Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:58 am

Relentless88 wrote:Anybody know what happened to Cecil? He was placed on the 7 day DL?


He left his last start with what I believe was a pulled groin.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#357 » by flatjacket1 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 3:00 am

-MetA4- wrote:Are you serious kid? I'm trying to be nice but my patience is running thin. Yes, great use of statistics in trying to tell me that 3 guys are hitting at 25%+ IFFB rate in the freaking 15 game start to the 2012 season. What did you think, that I wasn't going to actually look at those numbers after you posted them? Strong frauding.


SSS for last season for Cooper then. I can bet you all the money in your piggy bank that Cooper will have a lower IFFB rate when he finally gets the call in a 500+ PA sample size.

Double edged sword my friend.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#358 » by flatjacket1 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 3:17 am

Cooper has a double so far in Vegas in 2 AB's. Gose is also 1 for 2 with a SO, Nanita is 1-2 with a double. Hech has our only walk in the 4th.

Hech and Gose each have a steal.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#359 » by Relentless88 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 3:42 am

-MetA4- wrote:
Relentless88 wrote:Anybody know what happened to Cecil? He was placed on the 7 day DL?


He left his last start with what I believe was a pulled groin.

Thanks.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#360 » by baulderdash77 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 11:47 am

Hechavarria is still killing it in Vegas although the power numbers are normalizing with more appearances.

In 202 PA's in the PCL he's now at .356/.396/.479. Amazing for a guy to just become a good hitter after struggling to .248/.286/.351 in 775 PA's in AA.

I know he's made changes to his swing and approach but that's a 238 point increase in his OPS with the level change.

It's strange that d'Arnaud is really struggling. Hard to pine for him over JPA when he's hitting just .220 in that dustbox they call a stadium.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#361 » by Al_Oliver » Tue Apr 24, 2012 3:16 pm

Jays taking a look at Rice football player...

http://www.chron.com/sports/rice/articl ... 504459.php
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#362 » by Graham's Cracker » Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:03 pm

baulderdash77 wrote:Hechavarria is still killing it in Vegas although the power numbers are normalizing with more appearances.

In 202 PA's in the PCL he's now at .356/.396/.479. Amazing for a guy to just become a good hitter after struggling to .248/.286/.351 in 775 PA's in AA.

I know he's made changes to his swing and approach but that's a 238 point increase in his OPS with the level change.

It's strange that d'Arnaud is really struggling. Hard to pine for him over JPA when he's hitting just .220 in that dustbox they call a stadium.


You wonder how much the transition to North America plays a factor in his development. It has to be tough for a player with the culture change and what not. It could take an adjustment.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#363 » by flatjacket1 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:08 pm

baulderdash77 wrote:It's strange that d'Arnaud is really struggling. Hard to pine for him over JPA when he's hitting just .220 in that dustbox they call a stadium.


D'Arnaud is hitting the ball well and hard so far in AAA, has a BABIP of only .255, which is an all time low in the Jays system (last year his BABIP was .365, and the year before that .312.)

It's worth noting he is striking out less than he ever has in the Jays system, and walking WAY more than he ever has in the past. (11.8% compared to 7.1% in his amazing 2011).

Still a great defensive catcher with a .309 OBP this season, I would rank him above JPA to be honest. I bet he could hit for a higher average and on base percentage than JPA even if he was called up today, with much better defense as well.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#364 » by blackflash234 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:48 pm

In order news, The Lugnuts have a day game today. Aaron Sanchez got the start and pitched three shutout innings, one hit, three walks, seven K's. Nicolino is on to pitch now.
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Re: 2012 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#365 » by dennistokyo » Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:47 am

Snider's starting to strike out a little more lately. I still hope they bring him up soon.

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