Rosenthal: Jays, Mets trade may be expanding beyond Dickey

hyper316 · Post #521 » by **hyper316** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:50 pm

i think AA would move Sanchez and Syndergaard if Felix was available. But Felix is not going anywhere.

RA Dickey is a good fit for the Jays. He has front rotation caliber stuff, short contract (3 years most likely to be extended), and relatively low salary (average less than 10 mill a year over 3 years). Imo, that's way better than what Anibal Sanchez got and what he brings. Dickey's contract would be in the same neighbourhood as Ryan Dempster 2 years/26.5 mill. Dempster wouldn't cost prospects, but Dickey's quality is way better.

One thing I haven't heard being discussed is that Dickey's effect on the performance on the rest of the rotation. I remember when Tim Wakefield pitches for the Red Sox, hitters have trouble adjusting back to regular pitchers day after Wakefield pitches. I dont have stats to prove this, but does anyone agree?

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #522 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:53 pm

It'll be interesting to see who the Mets get if true, but doubt it comes into fruition now. With Riccardi being the special assistant for the Mets, I'm sure he's pushing for his draftee, JP Arencibia to be the one coming to New York. But with Alderson's trade history with the Mets, I'm sure he wants D'Arnaud.

I'm not the biggest Daniel Murphy fan and think we have capable guys that can handle second base in Izturis and Bonifacio. I'd much rather fill the need at first with Ike Davis, who has a really good glove and power although he tends to have trouble with the strikeouts.

I'd guess the other pieces coming back are a prospect(s) from the lower minors to help restock some of the farm system. Flores had a nice bounce back season but doubt the Mets include him. There are also a couple guys in the lower minors that I could see going.

Post #523 » by **spykelee** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:57 pm

I give AA the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

One thing for me is, I view Dickey as much, much better than 1 great year and 1 good year... I think this guy is just coming into his own, and doesn't have a ton of miles on that arm. I think he could easily be solid into the 43-44 range... Because of that, I don't mind the prospects we would be giving up assuming we can extend him, and given AA's history, like I said, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until Im proven otherwise.

raps4589 · Post #524 » by **raps4589** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:57 pm

this is scary. if we extend dickey im on board but if its a 1 for 1 darnaud for dickey thats just messed up

raps4589 · Post #525 » by **raps4589** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:59 pm

spykelee wrote:I give AA the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

One thing for me is, I view Dickey as much, much better than 1 great year and 1 good year... I think this guy is just coming into his own, and doesn't have a ton of miles on that arm. I think he could easily be solid into the 43-44 range... Because of that, I don't mind the prospects we would be giving up assuming we can extend him, and given AA's history, like I said, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until Im proven otherwise.

yea i agree with you. i just hope we extend him, it reminds me of when brewers trades us lawrie for 1 or 2 years of marcum.

The_Hater · Post #526 » by **The_Hater** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:02 pm

LBJSeizedMyID wrote:It'll be interesting to see who the Mets get if true, but doubt it comes into fruition now. With Riccardi being the special assistant for the Mets, I'm sure he's pushing for his draftee, JP Arencibia to be the one coming to New York. But with Alderson's trade history with the Mets, I'm sure he wants D'Arnaud.

I'm pretty ceratin Riccardi, like anyone else involved in an MLB front office, would rather have TDA than Arencibia too. To think otherwise is a huge reach.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #527 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:05 pm

Either way, Riccardi is only an assistant so he just gives his input. I'm reading Gose is now involved as well as D'Arnaud, so it's almost certain Niese is part of this deal given his cost certainty. Or maybe I'm reaching haha. Still don't 100% believe a trade is going to go down.

whysoserious · Post #528 » by **whysoserious** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:05 pm

The_Hater wrote:
whysoserious wrote:I know Dickey is coming off a Cy Young but i can't seem to understand why the value is so high for a 38 year old player having a career year?

We don't know what the entire deal is so it's impossible to say what the 'price' is for Dickey just yet.

He did have a career year but the more popular 'one year wonder' argument that others like to drop isn't very accurate. The guy abandoned most of conventional pitches and became a full time knuckleballer just 3 seasons ago and has been nothing short of a frontline starter/ace since that time. So I'm not sure why people expect him to pitch poorly when he's never pitched poorly as a knuckleballer. And looking at is pitching history prior to the past 3 seasons is pointless, people might as well be looking at a completely different guy.

Also, considering last season was his best season of the 3, one could argue that now that he's concentrating on his knuckleball full-time he's actually improving. As odd as that would seem for a pitcher his age.

I don't follow baseball enough so thanks for the quick history on Dickey. I still find it difficult to give up a lot of assets for a guy at his age who turned his career around at age 35 to change the type of pitcher he is. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the Jays are doing this considering what they've done for 20 years. I just think that they need to be careful right now. They made the big move. Looking at Miami last year, I'd almost take a step back and let's see how this team plays out before making another big splash. D'Arnaud/JP/Gose are all high end and could get you just as good as Dickey during the season but you could get something more too. Buehrle is older, Johnson only has 1 year, I'm not sold on that staff beyond the year with Dickey sticking around so I'd be targetting a younger guy if possible is all.

Personally, I think they should be addressing 1b and 2b before looking for another starter at this point.

Brinbe · Post #529 » by **Brinbe** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:08 pm

Niese, Davis for sure. Niese gives us an amazing rotation of Dickey/Johnson/Morrow/Buehrle/Romero-Niese and Davis gives us the 1B we've needed.

baulderdash77 · Post #530 » by **baulderdash77** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:11 pm

Daniel Murphy and Ike Davis sure would look good for us coming back the other way. I'm probably getting greedy here though.

Yosemite Dan · Post #531 » by **Yosemite Dan** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:17 pm

I'm not a fan of any trade where we lose D'arnaud. IMO i think this guy is a future perennial all star at a position which is really difficult to fill with a competent guy. I hope AA is not getting carried away with these massive deals. This isn't fantasy baseball. He robbed the marlins but that doesn;t mean every deal has to involve 10 players.

I'm not even that big a fan of getting Dickey for Gose\JPA straight up, and giving up TDA\Gose is insane, there's no way you can spin that where it's a good deal and it could haunt us for years. We really don't know how well Dickey can adjust to the American league. I just think kneucleballers do better in the NL because it's more of a fastball hitting league.

The_Hater · Post #532 » by **The_Hater** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:21 pm

whysoserious wrote:

Personally, I think they should be addressing 1b and 2b before looking for another starter at this point.

Pretty sure 2B has been addressed, 2 starting caliber guys have already been added this off-season. They might not be all-stars but they're both solid players. Izturis has put up an 800 OPS on the road the past 3 seasons, Anaheim was kiling him for whatever reason.

As for 1B/DH, that's the easiest spot in the entire lineup to fill and they could still add a guy during the season without much difficulty. I don't think its a huge issue at this point so it can wait.

But we're talking about adding a guy that will immediately become the #1 pitcher on the team and starting pitching is the most important and coveted commodity in MLB, so I can certainly see why this has become a priority over the other spots. The only problem I see is that they might be turning Catcher into a weaker spot to do it.

Yosemite Dan · Post #533 » by **Yosemite Dan** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:24 pm

If we give up D'arnaud, this will haunt us for years. And I mean years. I'm stunned that AA is even considering this regardless of how big the deal gets. Maybe AA should dial it in a bit, this isn't fantasy baseball, not every deal has to involve 10 players.

whysoserious · Post #534 » by **whysoserious** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:29 pm

Good points again. It's not like I'm totally against the move, it just concerns me a bit to go after a 38 year old starter as opposed to someone much younger. Not all knuckleballers are like Wakefield and can pitch forever.

I'm just thinking this would be the time for the Jays to kind of step back. They made a big splash already and the team as is looks solid. I'd rather make a move at the deadline with the players being discussed going out and use them as the team proves it can contend.

BTW, off-topic for this, despite his injuries and all, I really wanna see Morneau with the Jays. If he regains his form he could be really good for us and I think his leadership would be great too.

dagger · Post #535 » by **dagger** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:43 pm

Yosemite Dan wrote:I'm not a fan of any trade where we lose D'arnaud. IMO i think this guy is a future perennial all star at a position which is really difficult to fill with a competent guy. I hope AA is not getting carried away with these massive deals. This isn't fantasy baseball. He robbed the marlins but that doesn;t mean every deal has to involve 10 players.

I'm not even that big a fan of getting Dickey for Gose\JPA straight up, and giving up TDA\Gose is insane, there's no way you can spin that where it's a good deal and it could haunt us for years. We really don't know how well Dickey can adjust to the American league. I just think kneucleballers do better in the NL because it's more of a fastball hitting league.

I understand that view, and right now without knowing the full trade, it would be hard to swallow. I've had a couple of questions for some time now, and AA knows the answers. D'Arnaud has had a pair of significant injuries as a minor leaguer. Do the Jays have a concern about his long term durability as a catcher? If so, he could end up as a good hitting first baseman which is a lot easier to replace. Not worth making Custer?'s stand over Travis if he's destined for 1b in the not too distant future. And AA obviously has a better handle than us about the health a upside of AJ Jiminez, our Double A catcher. It s possible AA feels strategically that dArnaud is at the height of his value because teams that want him value him so highly as a catcher, not as a future first baseman. Just saying.

The_Hater · Post #536 » by **The_Hater** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:43 pm

whysoserious wrote:Good points again. It's not like I'm totally against the move, it just concerns me a bit to go after a 38 year old starter as opposed to someone much younger. Not all knuckleballers are like Wakefield and can pitch forever.

There's definitely risk with Dickey and I think somebody younger is definitely preferable but who's available out there? Shields is 7 years younger and a comparable pitcher and KC just jutted their farm system to get the guy. People on this forum keep dropping Hernandez name out there but he'd cost considerably more than Shields and there are no signs that the Mariners even want to trade him.

Dickey is the target because he's really the only guy on this level who is both available and affordable.

Indiana Jones · Post #537 » by **Indiana Jones** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:51 pm

Yosemite Dan wrote:If we give up D'arnaud, this will haunt us for years. And I mean years. I'm stunned that AA is even considering this regardless of how big the deal gets. Maybe AA should dial it in a bit, this isn't fantasy baseball, not every deal has to involve 10 players.

On the other hand, TDA just tore his knee up and has never even played above AA. Perhaps he turns out to be the next Buster Posey, but he might also crash and burn at the highest level. It's a gamble either way. With Dickey, you get a proven pitcher who can spearhead a rotation. That doesn't come cheap. The Jays want to win now, and JPA is more than capable of holding his own behind the plate. Long term this deal could hurt us, but for once we're trying to win now. I like that as a fan. Deal with the reality today, and don't worry too much about problems that may not even arise in the future...

Post #538 » by **YogiStewart** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:56 pm

The New York Daily News reporter (uggg) on the FAN claims that this deal is moving forward full steam ahead and that, barring some strange snag, it will be done.

Tyrone Slothrop · Post #539 » by **Tyrone Slothrop** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:02 pm

On the bright side, if both Gose and D'Arnaud get traded to the Mets and start the season in AAA, we can still get into those obnoxious DO VEGAS NUMBERS MATTER arguments.

changes · Post #540 » by **changes** » Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:04 pm

If TDA had no injury problems I would probably be against this deal, but he is pretty injury prone. Maybe AA knows/sees something no one else is in on.

I would prefer this isn't a straight up 1 for 1 deal and try maximize his value but I would be fine with this deal either way, although not "mind blown" by any means.