There There wrote:Michael Bradley wrote:The players I was thinking of were Edwin Jackson, Kazmir, Garza, and Shields, as far as players traded by the Rays at peak value (or at least at high value).
Jackson, Kazmir and Garza were traded with favourable contracts, but hardly at a level of high performance. None of these guys were the 3-3.5 WAR players you seem to want us to trade.
I agree you don't overpay players entering free agency if they're in that middle tier. But we haven't really got to that point, in Anthopoulos' time, of signing those players who are coming into big pay day's, except for Marcum, who we did trade as you noted.
I don't "want" to trade those players. I'm saying you can't consider them untouchable. If the Jays had the 2008 equivalent of Edwin Jackson (24-years old, 183 IP, 4.42 ERA, three years of control left), would AA trade him? I doubt it. The Kazmir trade would be the equivalent of the Jays trading Ricky Romero in July 2012, something I don't think AA would have done, either. Friedman is a proactive GM. How many times do the Rays go into an off-season and say "well, if (insert player) pitches like he did a year ago we have a shot"? If he feels a player has peaked or is replaceable by an internal option, he doesn't hesitate to make a move. That's my point. It's OK to be attached to Halladay types, but don't be afraid to cut the cord on middle of the pack talent. I think AA falls into that category (again, Marcum aside). I mean, we are still saying "if Morrow stays healthy….".
Wells was a bit of an impossible situation for Riccardi. It would have been an extremely hard sell to ownership that he should be moved coming off a monster season, one year after they put that money into Ryan and Burnett.
But regardless, that was Riccardi. Not sure why you're assuming Anthopoulos is going to make a similar decision?
I'm not saying AA would have done it. In fact, he wouldn't have because Beeston would have stopped it (too many years). I was just using Wells as an example.
Wells, coming off a 6 WAR season, was hardly a replaceable talent at the time.
And the Jays absolutely do not need to operate like the Rays. The Rays are amongst the smallest of MLB markets. The Jays are not (even with "wishy-washy" ownership).
Wells was a very inconsistent offensive player, even at his peak. When you factor that defensive ability tends to decline with age, I'm not sure that expecting Wells to produce like he did in 2006 going forward was a smart move. Certainly not for seven years. Delgado was elite every year. Halladay was elite every year. Those are the players you sign long-term. The ones that alternate from good to mediocre (or bad) are the ones you use until they become too expensive (i.e. Rasmus this year). And Wells was the dictionary definition of replaceable at the time, since Rios was there.
I agree, the Jays absolutely are a large market team.
2014: $136M, 8th in MLB (projected)
2013: $118M, 9th in MLB
2012: $75M, 23rd in MLB
2011: $62M, 23rd in MLB
2010: $62M, 22nd in MLB
2009: $80M, 16th in MLB
2008: $97M, 13th in MLB
2007: $82M, 16th in MLB
2006: $72M, 16th in MLB
2005: $45M, 25th in MLB
2004: $50M, 21st in MLB
2003: $51M, 21st in MLB
A large market team that over the last 12 seasons has been in the bottom 10 in payroll 6 times and in the bottom half in payroll 9 times.
That is what I mean by "wishy washy". They want to spend a gazillion dollars in one off-season, then tone it down a year later, followed by 3-4 years in the bottom half of the league, and then they will decide to spend again when the team finishes with 65 wins and need to boost attendance. What GM in their right mind (whether AA or someone else) will ever take a risk and increase payroll while employed by Rogers knowing what happened to AA this year? Isn't it more logical to try to keep payroll in a consistent area until a playoff calibre core has been established and revenue dictates the payroll increases?
You're right, they don't need to operate like the Rays. However, with this ownership group, it's the safest way to go. And like I said above, when I say operate like the Rays, I don't mean have a $60M payroll forever. I mean, build a contender organically and let revenue dictate any payroll increases. If the Jays can field a contender for $70-80M for a year or two, then obviously bumping payroll to $100M after that would be logical, and so on. Until that time, keep the payroll in a safe zone where you don't get caught off guard by ownership either increasing payroll for no reason or dumping it for many reasons.
Upton was a mainstay until last season.
Price and Shields were mainstays in that time frame.
If you instead had said "look at the Rays from 2006-onwards" then it could also be answered Crawford was a mainstay.
If you're being absolutely literal about the time period, then haven't we had the same turnover ? Bautista/Lind/McGowan are the only players remaining from 2008.
And in that time, which long term contracts have we signed for players who'd otherwise be entering free agency ?
I picked 2008 because that is when they became good. They don't hold on to players for very long. They get a player, maybe sign him to a cheap extension, and then eventually trade him when they've used up his good years or let him go via free agency. They seem to trade pitchers more often because they are so successful at developing them, but offensively it's been a lot of turnover as well, and a lot of cheap gambles that Maddon gets the most out of (Loney, Kotchman, etc). Again, maybe that's the case for every team, but Tampa keeps their payroll low with that turnover so it's obviously working.
Sure we don't know what he'd do if he had $100 million to spend. But it's logical to assume he'd spend at least close to it, no ?
Look at the reverse. The fact that we've haven't filled any of our obvious holes hasn't stopped many from assuming that ownership is entirely to blame, as opposed to Anthopoulos simply deciding he didn't want to spend the money on the players available at the terms they wanted?
I think if you give Friedman $100M to spend, he might sign a player or two he otherwise would not have signed (or traded for), but I don't think he'd be significantly different than he is now. Again, there is no way to know for sure, and if Friedman was in Toronto, he'd be at the mercy of Beeston, so a lot depends on how much freedom he gets from ownership as well.
And that's exactly why the Rays is absolutely not a model we should be emulating.
Forcing the Rays model on this organization would be far too limiting, just like the ridiculous "policies" such as no contracts > 5 years.
Friedman didn't choose the Rays model... he was forced into it. It's out of necessity. And although that front office has done a tremendous job filling spots with low cost, high value options, it's inevitable that they are going to eventually hit a dry period. I'm sure Friedman would be more than thrilled to have the means to "buy" their way out of such a dry period where the draft picks aren't quite hitting and the trades aren't quite paying off.
Everything must come to an end, so I'm sure Tampa will fall off eventually, but I think it's gotten to a point where we have to accept that it's not a mirage with the Rays. It's been six years of success and they look just as strong in the seventh year, if not stronger, than ever before. Like I said, if Friedman had more money, I don't think much would change other than maybe signing a player he otherwise would not have, or something along those lines. I could see him being like Cherington in Boston, or maybe Beane (small market but signed Cespedes when he had the funds to do so).
You're over thinking it. We don't need to hit on an otherworldly number of draft picks to emulate the Cardinals model. At it's core, all they are doing is looking first to fill spots internally, then looking to outside options which represent value and avoiding locking down players to the super contracts (ie... Pujols) which don't represent value because the player is likely to be declining long before the contract expires.
According to Cot's contracts, they have a $116 million payroll this season. That is the range we absolutely should be in, even with "wishy-washy" ownership. And if we had the depth in our system that we maybe should have held off for, then last year could have been much different as a result.
It's logical to say "we should follow the Cardinals lead", but it's also logical for NBA teams to want to follow the Spurs. So why don't they? Some times, in every sport, you have outlier organizations, ones that are so good at what they do that they can't be duplicated. The Cardinals fall in that group. There is no way to duplicate that. When I say every prospect they have pans out, that's not entirely hyperbole. It's ridiculous how often they develop their own players.
Now, the Jays can certainly try to follow that lead, but they will be far less successful, especially with AA's drafting which focuses on very, very young talent. It would take many years to get to the point where the Jays can lose a Hall of Famer and replace him with a 27-year old former 8th round pick who turns into a 130 OPS+ player overnight. The Red Sox can't be duplicated because the Jays don't have the player friendly market that Boston has to sign free agents. Maybe the Rangers are realistic. I just mentioned the Rays because they don't get attached to talent and their building is more fluid and not dependent on superstar prospects (Price and Longoria aside) or enormous amounts of money. Just good trading, good player development, and a great manager/coaching staff.