2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Schad]

With the 2017 MLB Showcase in the Dominican Republic underway, Ben Badler has begun rolling out his 2017 IFA coverage. The Jays are linked to Brazilian RHP Eric Pardinho who is considered to be Brazil's best baseball prospect to date, and Dominican SS Miguel Hiraldo who is expected to receive a bonus of "at least $1 million".

Pardinho made waves by overmatching the Dominicans in the COPABE 16U tournament last July and then went on to make a WBC qualifier appearance for Brazil in September...at only 15 years of age. At only ~5'10 he is limited in terms of physical projection, but he is already throwing 90-93 comfortably (reportedly touched 94 or 95 in his WBC appearance) with an advanced feel for pitching. Perfect Game wrote the following report on him:

2017 World Showcase Jan 07, 2017
PG Grade: 10

Eric Taniguchi Pardinho is a 2018 RHP with a 5-10 165 lb. frame from Bastos, Brazil. Medium, athletic frame with square shoulders, very nice build with present strength throughout, strong lower half and core which are incorporated into delivery. Primary righthanded pitcher, lots of tempo, rhythm, and balance to delivery, high leg lift up past belt, gathers over rubber well and and shows a long and fluid arm stroke through the backside working to a high three-quarters arm slot. Advanced ability to repeat delivery, especially for age, and remains on line with lower half directionality. Very low effort delivery and release, able to generate plane on fastball and showed advanced command of fastball that lived comfortably in the 90-93 mph range. Worked either side of the plate with fastball with intent, curveball shows downer life and 12-6 shape with late, tight bite at 79 mph, slider was just as tight at 81 mph with solid finish to the glove side. Reminiscent of Jeremy Hellickson at this age. Looks to be one of the top international arms for the July 2nd signing period. Named to World Showcase Top Prospect List.

You can see the MLB video on his WBC appearance here:
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v1181362683/pakbra-15yearold-pardinho-throws-23-innings

Eric Eiji Taniguchi Pardinho is a fantastic name that is worth the price of signing him alone.

[polo007]

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(Lourdes) Gurriel looks like he could be the real deal, tall slender body, young kid, great athlete, maybe a quick comer and a part of the organization for a number of years.

(Rowdy) Tellez is probably our most advanced prospect, that’s knocking on the door, he will play in Triple-A this year as a first baseman.

There is a left-handed pitcher named Tim Mayza who has a good of an arm as your going to see and if he can harness that strike zone a little better, he’s got a chance to be really, really good.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

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DUNEDIN, FLA.—With minor-league camps opening soon, the number of players frequenting the Toronto Blue Jays’ main complex will soon drop, but that doesn’t mean those on their way out the door have not made their mark.

Manager John Gibbons said Wednesday a lot of younger players have left an impression over the past couple weeks.

“(First baseman Rowdy) Tellez, he’s not going to make the team but he’s high on our list, probably as high as anybody,” Gibbons said. “(Right-hander) Chris Smith, the big arm, we really like. (Lefty Ryan) Borucki . . . the organization really likes him. He pitched the other day in Orlando, it caught my attention, too.”

Those newer faces may not be out of sight for long.

“There’s a bunch of guys here, although they may not start with us, they could end up playing a valuable part,” Gibbons said. “You know how it goes, an injury here or there, somebody not doing their job, somebody gets that opportunity. We have some pretty good reinforcements.”

The manager believes a team can never have enough depth.

“We’ve been pretty fortunate, really, the last couple years with our injury situation out of our pitching. There’s some things you’ve got to do in that bullpen every now and then, too, so there’s some good competition.”

[polo007]

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Mayza’s stock in the organization has skyrocketed the last couple of years. Jays manager John Gibbons was almost giddy on Thursday when asked about the big left-handed prospect.

“Yeah, you saw him (Wednesday), that was pretty impressive,” Gibbons said. “We always knew he had a good arm, just needs to harness it a little bit, throw more strikes. Everybody thinks he’s got a chance to be really, really good. That appearance (Wednesday), that will get your attention. Every team in baseball is looking for good left-handed relievers. Of course (Brett) Cecil’s gone now, you’re always looking for those guys.”

Mayza’s heat didn’t surprise Gibbons as much as the 25-year-old’s control and slider against the Tigers.

“He can throw up there, but he’s got a breaking ball too,” he added. “I’ll tell you what, if he puts it all together, it’s going to be tough on left-handed hitters. Even right-handed hitters.”

If Mayza’s progression continues, he may be a left-handed option coming out of the bullpen for the Jays this year.

“Right now my fastball is the key,” Mayza, who throws a two- and four-seamer, said. “And that’s kind of been the key to my progression is just fastball command. The slider’s really come along in the past couple of years and that’s been a real good out pitch for me to get guys to swing.”

Said Mayza, “The last few years it’s kind of gotten more and more consistent. The more I’m out there the more experience I get, the more confident I am, the more comfortable I am. And the velocity has come along with that. I just want to keep going out there and keep doing what I need to do and control what I need to control and whatever happens, happens.”

[JaysRule15]

Mayza walked like 30 guys in 60 innings pitched last year. He'll need to polish up his control if he wants a shot to pitch in the majors.

[polo007]

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At six-foot-four and 220 pounds, he’s formidable at the plate, though leaner than a year ago. During his breakout season at Double-A New Hampshire in 2016, Tellez hit .297 and finished in the top 10 in the league in hits (130, tied for 10th), home runs (23, tied for fifth), RBIs (81, sixth) and OPS (.917, fifth). He is likely destined for Triple-A Buffalo come April. As a member of the Jays’ 40-man roster, he gets to spend the beginning of the spring in the major league camp and the California native is determined to leave a impression.

“I’m going to go out there and work as hard as I can and leave everything up to the people who make those decisions,” Tellez said. “I’m going to be the best person, the best teammate off the field, and when the time comes, the time comes. I can only control what I can control. How hard I take my at bats. How hard I play defence. How smart I play.

“I want to show them that I’m ready when they are. If it’s one pitch in one game, I’ll be there. If they need me for a long time, I’ll be there too.”

Since he is still just 21, he won’t be rushed by Blue Jays management. Any promotions to the big leagues will depend on how he handles the next level. Some of it may depend on the performance and injury status of others on the big roster. It wouldn’t be a shock, however, if Tellez earns at least a taste with the Jays at some point this season, especially in September when the rosters expand.

As Atkins acknowledged on Monday, the timing will take care of itself, meaning there may come a point where Tellez won’t be able to be held back any longer.

“He’s been phenomenal,” Atkins said. “The biggest thing with Rowdy is he focuses on the work in a very authentic way. He focuses on little things like base running. He focuses on being a better teammate on a daily basis, and he’s 21. That’s unusual."

“Then you factor in his power, plate discipline, a very solid defensive approach with his age … it’s all very encouraging.”

[dagger]

You can see the team getting ready to switch from selling contender status to an on-the-fly rebuild very soon. The tell tale signs of the latter are when management starts fanning the flames of prospect hope - the sizzle before the steak. Mark my words, media will soon be talking about the corner infield of the future with Vladdie Jr and Rowdy and all the bombs they are going to launch at the RC. If one other prospect (Alford? Urena? Reid-Foley?) catches fire early in the minor league year, interest will even spread to casual fans the way the Leafs' 2016 draft became a topic that fueled a lot of interest.

That's why I think a selloff of older players will happen as early as mid-season if the team is slow out of the gate. The prospect of a rebuild based on guys like this can take the sting out of losing records for 2017-18.

[RapsAndJays21]

You can see the team getting ready to switch from selling contender status to an on-the-fly rebuild very soon. The tell tale signs of the latter are when management starts fanning the flames of prospect hope - the sizzle before the steak. Mark my words, media will soon be talking about the corner infield of the future with Vladdie Jr and Rowdy and all the bombs they are going to launch at the RC. If one other prospect (Alford? Urena? Reid-Foley?) catches fire early in the minor league year, interest will even spread to casual fans the way the Leafs' 2016 draft became a topic that fueled a lot of interest.

That's why I think a selloff of older players will happen as early as mid-season if the team is slow out of the gate. The prospect of a rebuild based on guys like this can take the sting out of losing records for 2017-18.

It's a two-fold debate, but you almost wish they were out of contention by the trade deadline of last year. Could have been interesting to see the return on Bautista, Edwin, Josh, Tulo

[Skin Blues]

Could have been interesting to see the return on Bautista, Edwin, Josh, Tulo

You have a strange idea of what "interesting" is. It would have been a handful of prospects that may or may not pan out, Rogers would have saved money by not fielding a competitive team for a few seasons at the expense of losing most of the viewers and season ticket holders they finally added after the 2015 season, and it may or may not have lead to a deep playoff run 5 years down the line. Which, ya know, we just ended up doing last year anyway. Strange thing to wish a team had been out of contention in a year that they were one of the final 4 teams standing.

[S.W.A.N]

You can see the team getting ready to switch from selling contender status to an on-the-fly rebuild very soon. The tell tale signs of the latter are when management starts fanning the flames of prospect hope - the sizzle before the steak. Mark my words, media will soon be talking about the corner infield of the future with Vladdie Jr and Rowdy and all the bombs they are going to launch at the RC. If one other prospect (Alford? Urena? Reid-Foley?) catches fire early in the minor league year, interest will even spread to casual fans the way the Leafs' 2016 draft became a topic that fueled a lot of interest.

That's why I think a selloff of older players will happen as early as mid-season if the team is slow out of the gate. The prospect of a rebuild based on guys like this can take the sting out of losing records for 2017-18.

I'm fairly okay with that. The roster we have now is fairly flawed. Good enough to be competitive if everything clicks but any regression from our pitching staff (injuries etc.) could make us mediocre in a hurry.

If there was a year to start trading guys away for younger talent this is it.

[Schad]

Could have been interesting to see the return on Bautista, Edwin, Josh, Tulo

You have a strange idea of what "interesting" is. It would have been a handful of prospects that may or may not pan out, Rogers would have saved money by not fielding a competitive team for a few seasons at the expense of losing most of the viewers and season ticket holders they finally added after the 2015 season, and it may or may not have lead to a deep playoff run 5 years down the line. Which, ya know, we just ended up doing last year anyway. Strange thing to wish a team had been out of contention in a year that they were one of the final 4 teams standing.

We absolutely made the ALCS, but there's some acknowledgement that it's not an easy path back, and the concern is the middle ground; the second Wild Card could be reachable without being likely; even by early September there were ten AL teams 4+ games above .500. I'm agnostic as to what I want beyond blowing the doors off and winning the division, because there's something to be said both for being in the race 'til the end (and hoping to again run through a couple rounds) or pressing the reset button.

[phillipmike]

Fangraphs 2017 Top 100 Prospects:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/

24. Vlad, Jr. Guerrero, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Scouting Summary
I’ve spoken with several sources (both with Toronto and without) who think Guerrero will be in the big leagues before he turns 21. He has elite bat speed and power potential with surprising bat control for such a high-effort swing. His approach at the plate is, predictably, epicurean. But embedded deep within his genealogy is an ability to make this approach viable, and when Guerrero is poking at balls just a few inches above the dirt, his strength/bat speed is so good that the ball still jumps off his bat and into the gaps. At this age with this build, he’s likely ticketed for first base or an outfield corner in the future, but nobody seems to care.

79. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Scouting Summary
Alford has plus raw power, is a plus-plus runner and still has lots of baseball skill projection remaining because he spent 2012-2014 playing college football. He dealt with injuries in 2016, which limited his reps, but Alford looked fine in the AFL. I think the game power will start to show up, though I anticipate strikeouts to remain an issue. If Alford can continue to walk the way he has early in his pro career, the offensive profile will be fine for center field.

96. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Scouting Summary
Foley has improved his arm action to the point where scouts who had seem him earlier and considered him a reliever are more receptive to the idea of him starting. It appears as though his command improvements are more than a small-sample mirage. He mixes in two solid breaking balls that play up due to his consistent ability to locate them down and to his arm side. The changeup needs to develop. With a new and improved arm action, it’s more likely to.

[I_Like_Dirt]

We absolutely made the ALCS, but there's some acknowledgement that it's not an easy path back, and the concern is the middle ground; the second Wild Card could be reachable without being likely; even by early September there were ten AL teams 4+ games above .500. I'm agnostic as to what I want beyond blowing the doors off and winning the division, because there's something to be said both for being in the race 'til the end (and hoping to again run through a couple rounds) or pressing the reset button.

Aside from being a little confused as to what your agnosticism has to do with anything, but that aside, while I do understand the value in rebuilding, I also tend to think it gets a bit overplayed just how long a team that rebuilds remains in contention provided they do most things right in their rebuild. Everyone wants to point to Cleveland as an example of a team that rebuilt and now will have a longer window because of it. In reality, they might get 3 or 4 years if they're lucky, but more likely they fall back a bit fairly quickly, much as the Astros and Royals did this past year. They might have a longer term potential of being a slightly above .500 team that's within shouting reach of a wild card birth, but really, is that something to aspire for?

I do think there is a certain correlation between exploiting spending power on prospects rather than aging veterans for larger budget teams and the ability to build longer term winners, but that logic doesn't hold nearly as consistently for smaller budget teams. And to be honest, that's one aspect I do like about how Shatkins has operated: they've been spending more in the process of acquiring guys I consider to be reasonably good prospects than on the veterans straight up. Getting Liriano worked out really well, but is even better with the guys they got to add to their farm. And to be honest, while I'm certain nothing will ever actually be known, to me, the Morales and Gurriel signings were linked, and I liked that aspect of it a lot.

[Schad]

Aside from being a little confused as to what your agnosticism has to do with anything,

Secondary definition, indicating that one is committed to neither side of an argument...thought that it was a fairly common usage, perhaps it isn't.

but that aside, while I do understand the value in rebuilding, I also tend to think it gets a bit overplayed just how long a team that rebuilds remains in contention provided they do most things right in their rebuild. Everyone wants to point to Cleveland as an example of a team that rebuilt and now will have a longer window because of it. In reality, they might get 3 or 4 years if they're lucky, but more likely they fall back a bit fairly quickly, much as the Astros and Royals did this past year. They might have a longer term potential of being a slightly above .500 team that's within shouting reach of a wild card birth, but really, is that something to aspire for?

It's not about aspiring to a rebuild, it's the fact that we're going to have no choice. It's a question of when, not if, and we have multiple assets that will hit free agency after this season, followed by a couple major ones after 2018. So the scenario where we hit the trade deadline within striking distance but not occupying a playoff spot is a difficult one, because it doesn't allow us commit in a big way to either direction.

I do think there is a certain correlation between exploiting spending power on prospects rather than aging veterans for larger budget teams and the ability to build longer term winners, but that logic doesn't hold nearly as consistently for smaller budget teams. And to be honest, that's one aspect I do like about how Shatkins has operated: they've been spending more in the process of acquiring guys I consider to be reasonably good prospects than on the veterans straight up. Getting Liriano worked out really well, but is even better with the guys they got to add to their farm. And to be honest, while I'm certain nothing will ever actually be known, to me, the Morales and Gurriel signings were linked, and I liked that aspect of it a lot.

While I like the guys, neither are exactly world-beating prospects, and trades where teams are willing to give up real value for a (in the modern era) modest amount of salary relief are few and far between. A good way to add depth to a system that badly needed it, but not a team-building strategy in and of itself.

[Skin Blues]

It's a question of when, not if, and we have multiple assets that will hit free agency after this season, followed by a couple major ones after 2018.

There are 25 guys on a roster; there will be players hitting free agency every year, on every team. This is a really poor argument in favour of going into re-build mode. Do the Cubs re-build just because Dexter Fowler and Aroldis Chapman left in free agency?? Or do we look at the team as a whole to decide if it can compete? I think the latter. We'll be losing Estrada (maybe, if he doesn't re-sign, which he did last time he was facing free agency), Bautista (maybe, if he doesn't re-sign, which he did last time he was facing free agency), Liriano, Upton and Grilli. With the rest of the team intact, and with Rowdy Tellez and Sean Reid-Foley probably ready to contribute in 2018 (and maybe Alford/Gurriel as well), the net difference is minimal. And of course we'll have money to spend since Bautista ($18.5M), Liriano ($13M) and Estrada ($14M) are off the books. This is simply an infatuation with re-building and being fascinated with prospects and the fantasy of building a team full of 25 year old superstars with 5 years of team control all aligning at the same time.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

There are 25 guys on a roster; there will be players hitting free agency every year, on every team. This is a really poor argument in favour of going into re-build mode. Do the Cubs re-build just because Dexter Fowler and Aroldis Chapman left in free agency?? Or do we look at the team as a whole to decide if it can compete? I think the latter. We'll be losing Estrada (maybe, if he doesn't re-sign, which he did last time he was facing free agency), Bautista (maybe, if he doesn't re-sign, which he did last time he was facing free agency), Liriano, Upton and Grilli. With the rest of the team intact, and with Rowdy Tellez and Sean Reid-Foley probably ready to contribute in 2018 (and maybe Alford/Gurriel as well), the net difference is minimal. And of course we'll have money to spend since Bautista ($18.5M), Liriano ($13M) and Estrada ($14M) are off the books. This is simply an infatuation with re-building and being fascinated with prospects and the fantasy of building a team full of 25 year old superstars with 5 years of team control all aligning at the same time.

And this is nothing but you employing hyperbole rather than address the reality of our situation. No one believes we're going to have a roster full of 25 year old superstars, but no amount of bull can gently elide the fact that, over the next two seasons, we aren't just losing the players noted, we're also faced with Donaldson and Happ hitting free agency.

You can do the math as well as I can: Bautista, Donaldson, Happ, Estrada and Liriano were good for 15 fWAR last year. At market value, that's about $120m...we paid them $76m for that production. And yeah, we'll have some money coming off the books, but we simply do not have the means to replace top-end players on underpaid deals with top-end players on full freight; when Donaldson leaves, and he will because we're not going to spend upwards of $30m a year (and it's dubious that we should, for that matter), there will not be another Donaldson coming in. There will not even be a player approximating him coming in. And we don't have the minor league talent to consistently swing deals, either. Combine those things and we need a miracle just to remain competitive.

And sure, we have some young talent, but there is no rest of the team to be intact past 2018, with the sole exception of...the young players we have developed. The sorts that we need to have more of, but a generation of which we traded away. I mean, we'll have Martin, Tulo and Morales serving as boat anchors, but that's not quite the same thing, and re-signing the free agents isn't a great idea because age is catching up to them by times. Consequently, if we want to make some attempt to be good in the future, we need more than Tellez and SRF, and we need more than Alford/Guerriel.

We can rage against the tide to our heart's content, but she's coming in.

[Skin Blues]

when Donaldson leaves, and he will because we're not going to spend upwards of $30m a year (and it's dubious that we should, for that matter), there will not be another Donaldson coming in. There will not even be a player approximating him coming in.

You don't know this, it's an assumption. No team in baseball knows what MVP candidate they will suddenly have available to them once their current one leaves. Where did EE, Bautista, Donaldson, etc come from in the first place? Players like that emerge all the time. So, no, we don't know who might be a superstar after Donaldson leaves. Maybe it'll be a few mere stars that combine for his production. Maybe we'll trade for one like we did with Barreto for Donaldson in the first place, sign a reclamation project that finally clicks like both Jose and Edwin did, one of our own prospects might become a superstar, like Vladdy Jr, Lourdes Gurriel, or Alford. None of those individually is likely to happen in the next two years, but on the whole it is likely that somebody will emerge. They aren't MVPs, but other notable additions that helped us to the playoffs the past couple years: Kevin Pillar, a 3-4 WAR player, came out of nowhere. Marco Estrada, who put up consecutive 4+ RA9-WAR seasons, came out of nowhere. When you have a core of MLB talent like we do (Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Travis, Pillar, Biagini all through 2020+) all it takes is a couple of those 3-4 WAR guys emerging to put you into championship contention. So no, this is not an inevitable tide coming in. There are definitely teams that should go into re-build mode and don't have the core that we do; this is not one of them. We are years away from realistically needing to tear it down. This is sort of getting to be a tired notion, that we always need to start re-building. People with prospect boners will never be happy to just compete and have a successful team since the best time in their opinion to cash in on all of the MLB-ready assets is either right now or at the very latest, as soon as the team falls out of contention in the current season. I think it's pretty obvious we're still in full-on contending mode in 2017, and to start 2018 will be the same, and at the earliest we might start thinking about a re-building in August 2018. But that isn't a certainty, depending on how the next wave of young players shakes out. Our window was supposed to end abruptly in 2016 after EE/Jose's cheap contracts expired, but striking it big with Donaldson almost single-handedly extended that by 2 years.

[Schad]

You don't know this, it's an assumption. No team in baseball knows what MVP candidate they will suddenly have available to them once their current one leaves. Where did EE, Bautista, Donaldson, etc come from in the first place? Players like that emerge all the time. So, no, we don't know who might be a superstar after Donaldson leaves. Maybe it'll be a few mere stars that combine for his production. Maybe we'll trade for one like we did with Barreto for Donaldson in the first place, sign a reclamation project that finally clicks like both Jose and Edwin did, one of our own prospects might become a superstar, like Vladdy Jr, Lourdes Gurriel, or Alford.

"Maybe a superstar will randomly appear" is not in fact a sound strategy for building. It could happen; it has happened before. It's not something one can or should plan around.

They aren't MVPs, but other notable additions that helped us to the playoffs the past couple years: Kevin Pillar, a 3-4 WAR player, came out of nowhere. Marco Estrada, who put up consecutive 4+ RA9-WAR seasons, came out of nowhere. When you have a core of MLB talent like we do (Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Travis, Pillar, Biagini all through 2020+) all it takes is a couple of those 3-4 WAR guys emerging to put you into championship contention. So no, this is not an inevitable tide coming in. There are definitely teams that should go into re-build mode and don't have the core that we do; this is not one of them. We are years away from realistically needing to tear it down. This is sort of getting to be a tired notion, that we always need to start re-building. People with prospect boners will never be happy to just compete and have a successful team since the best time in their opinion to cash in on all of the MLB-ready assets is either right now or at the very latest, as soon as the team falls out of contention in the current season. I think it's pretty obvious we're still in full-on contending mode in 2017, and to start 2018 will be the same, and at the earliest we might start thinking about a re-building in August 2018. But that isn't a certainty, depending on how the next wave of young players shakes out. Our window was supposed to end abruptly in 2016 after EE/Jose's cheap contracts expired, but striking it big with Donaldson almost single-handedly extended that by 2 years.

See, that's the thing: I don't disagree with any of this beyond your suggested date, and even then merely by a year. If we don't look good through the first half of this season, we're likely to trade away vets then, rather than start to allow them to walk for nothing. And if we do that, we're highly likely to move Donaldson, because keeping him through free agency (and getting a mere comp round pick for one of the most valuable assets in baseball) is utterly criminal unless we're really damned sure that we will compete, and that's unlikely if 2017 doesn't go well.

It's remarkable, given how much I and others have written on this subject, that you still seem to be suggesting that we're talking about going into a long-term rebuild, but we aren't...we're talking about trading away the vets who we are going to lose anyway and immediately pivoting to try to be competitive thereafter. Increasingly, that's what rebuilds look like in baseball; the Yankees have gone through a rebuild without even falling below .500, and Boston rebuilt while whipsawing between competitiveness and retools.

What we cannot do, however, is hold on to our aged core and think that's going to get us somewhere for any great length of time. We're old, we're getting older, and there is (quite literally via their contracts) an expiration date, if we haven't hit it already with Encarnacion's departure. If we instead simply let our veterans walk, then we are definitely looking at a long rebuild, because the handful of solid-to-good younger players we have and our below-average minor league depth isn't exactly going to springboard us to competitiveness, and building through free agency is a sucker's game.