Lateral Quicks wrote:Interesting, I was not aware of those stats. I was under the impression he was considered to be average to above average defensively, but perhaps not.
As for the bat, it's the awesome K:BB ratio he's displayed that has me very high on him. I think that's a good barometer for future success, particularly if a prospect can sustain it at higher levels like Jansen has done. It's one thing to walk a lot in rookie ball where half the guys can't consistently throw a strike.
Defensively he projects to be average/able to stick. Just arm is a big issue for him, not saying he won't grow into that but that's a pretty big "if". Right now I don't see him sticking at C at the ML level, but that can change and obviously you are going to keep giving him reps there because the upside if he can stick is huge.
K:BB ratio for hitters is so undervalued. To me it is the one stat that stabilizes fast, even in the minor leagues. Guys who are over matched will always struggle with K's and BB's, even if their batted balls find holes/hit LD's whatever. The other thing to realize is the vast range of talent in the lower minor leagues, you might face a young Syndergaard but for every one of those you see 3 guys who throws straight fastballs with 0 command. It is easy to build up a decent stat line when you are over matched (although it is hard to maintain). wOBA really takes 1000 PA to stabilize at the ML level (Tom Tango wrote about that), so production based statistics are really lagging. Really K:BB is one of the only stats I actually put stock into at that level.
Totally agree with the "can't throw a strike thing". Low minor guys all throw hard but the two things lagging are FB command and secondary stuff. The thing to remember though is most guys throw a "F u fastball" (scouting term) which is essentially they throw as hard as they can and aim for the plate instead of a spot. Although some guys may have decent walk numbers, it doesn't mean they are actually locating pitches. Control is one thing, command is another. Most have okay control, and those who don't are usually prospects who use secondary stuff well. It is possible for a pitcher with terrible control/command to have a low walk rate due to just throwing a high percentage of fastballs and have lucky batted ball outcomes.
Jansen has a good bat, and defensively he's young enough you can hope he gains some velocity. I just find it crazy that so many people actually think he still projects as a ML catcher. I think there is a better chance he doesn't make it at the C than he does. Still a good bat, you can use those in a lot of places.
