Insider: Bowden's Blue Jays rebuilding plan

[dagger]

I have to be careful because it's an Insider article, but here's the gist

The Jays are cooked in the AL East no matter what. Even if they overachieve a bit, it won't get them to the playoffs. The plan was admirable, but now it's time to change plans. The market for some Jays will be very high in prospects because of the quality of talent and contracts

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms ... st?id=9266

The worst thing that Anthopoulos can do now is double-down on his situation and stay the course in an attempt to salvage his big moves from 2012. Instead, he needs to accept his current reality and make the kind of veteran-for-prospect deals he once benefited from. And if he does it now, he can be ahead of the curve and let all contending teams know that he has the final pieces for their playoff run. They don’t have to wait until June or July. Need a middle-of-the-order power bat? No problem, we have Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Need a veteran reliable starter to provide quality starts? We have Dickey and Buehrle. Need a dynamic All-Star shortstop who might never get healthy? Perhaps you'd be interested in Reyes.

He ranks the assets as follows, and pretty much as you would think. He could have put Lind on there as a situational hitter with a good contract situation.


Encarnacion: Given his contract and production, teams would line up for him with prospect packages

Bautista: Would get a tremendous trade return as well

Reyes: Get him healthy long enough to get teams interested in his big ticket

Dickey: Might have a better chance of reverting to near dominant if he returns to the NL

Rasmus: Not a middle of the order bat, but a solid contributor. Only negative is free agency.

Buerhle: Jays would have to eat some of his contracts but he'd be a nice get as a #3 or #4 starter on a contender

Janssen: Quality reliever, good trade chip

Cecil: His stock will never be higher

Delabar: Same thing as Cecil

Santos: Good under the radar pickup for someone.

[Graham's Cracker]

Good read. Thanks for posting.

No way in hell that AA blows it up now though. I think June or July is reasonable if we're out of contention. Maybe some of those guys will get traded then even if we are in contention.

[Lateral Quicks]

I agree AA won't blow it up until June at the earliest, if he does at all. If he does though, for the prospect watchers among us the potential return is drool-worthy. I'd be looking for AAA, near major league ready talent, ala what the Rays did so brilliantly with the Shields/Myers deal.

[zong]

how long before the tWo rolls in here?

[Wo1verine]

Just add another 50M in payroll and go from there

BTW, what's the point in rebuilding when this current management believes 'prospects are meant to be traded'?

So we can end up where we are today?

[MikeM]

It's quite depressing that we're talking about trading Jose and EE. Two of the best hitters in the league basically just fell into our laps and we're still last place.

[whysoserious]

Also, even getting a bunch of prospects, this organization doesn't have a great track record of development in a long long time.

[baulderdash77]

I don't think that AA ever gets a chance to rebuild the team. I think that the next GM will have that honour.

As much as I really like a lot of these players, I'm beginning to face the fact that we may as well slash and burn this roster. Full on fire sale for prospects and then try to contend in 2018.

The cycle continues unfortunately.

[Kaizen]

Also, even getting a bunch of prospects, this organization doesn't have a great track record of development in a long long time.

This is why when AA is fired we need to get rid of everybody.

I still think caring about anything Bowden says is funny.

[Kinger95]

Never been a Jansen fan , I think his "stuff" isn't that great so I would like them to move him.
Rasmus is gonna make us open up the wallet of he has a good year so mabey him depending on the return.

I think depending on our record at the traded deadline we might see buhrle/dickey moved if the package is good. Heck they would welcome a deal I don't really think they are too high on playing for us but just my opinion

[akakalakin]

Buehrle and Dickey perhaps a few other dead weights being someone else's dead weight would provide enough space that Jose and EE would not have to go.

[Geddy]

I doubt they would tear the team completely apart considering how the big name acquisitions brought in fans to the stadium and increased interest in the team all over the country.

[Back2back2back]

I doubt they would tear the team completely apart considering how the big name acquisitions brought in fans to the stadium and increased interest in the team all over the country.

Exactly. That would be suicide.

[kwamebargnani]

I doubt they would tear the team completely apart considering how the big name acquisitions brought in fans to the stadium and increased interest in the team all over the country.

Exactly. That would be suicide.

Keeping these players is also suicide.

[C Court]

Also, even getting a bunch of prospects, this organization doesn't have a great track record of development in a long long time.

My concern exactly. Weren't Gose and Drabek supposed to be big contributors to the Jays moving forward?

[akakalakin]

I doubt they would tear the team completely apart considering how the big name acquisitions brought in fans to the stadium and increased interest in the team all over the country.

Exactly. That would be suicide.

Keeping these players is also suicide.

Dumping Beeston/AA/Dickey/Buerhle/Morrow/Happ/Romero would be a good start, and could add a few good pitchers with the freed up money yet not go thru a total rebuild.

[soulchild_07]

I doubt they would tear the team completely apart considering how the big name acquisitions brought in fans to the stadium and increased interest in the team all over the country.

Exactly. That would be suicide.

Keeping these players is also suicide.

No, keeping those players is not suicide because they're are good when healthy. Not adding upgrades to areas of need is suicide like the bench and second base. I actually think the pitching will be better organically while one more starter would have been ideal knocking everyone back a peg and insulating the risk from multiple injuries.

[Michael Bradley]

I'd prefer doing what Boston did in 2012. Trade away with the talent with the least amount of ROI, and add pieces to the good existing talent remaining. Bautista and Encarnacion are not getting younger, but they still have incredible contracts, so I think it's possible to extend the window with them and prepare for life without them at the same time.

Obviously, the biggest trade chip who fits the above criteria is Reyes. Great player when healthy, but he's not a SS anymore, won't be moved away from SS because of his veteran status (I guess that's the reason), and probably won't stay healthy enough to produce at the level required for his salary. I'm not sure who else the Jays can move. Dickey may never be the front-line starter he was from 2010-12, but he makes as much money as Ricky Nolasco. In other words, he's very good value. Buehrle is obviously overpaid, but if they have to eat up salary and get an inferior talent, it takes away a lot of the benefit.

If the Jays fall out of it by mid-season, I'd move Reyes, Morrow, Happ, the expensive relievers (Santos, Janssen), and then try to retool for 2015 in the hopes that Stroman, Sanchez, Hutchison, Nolin, etc, can be rotation options with Dickey and Buehrle next season. Ideally, the Jays could get CF, LF, 2B, etc, options in return for some of the players they traded.

I don't want to do a Houston Astros rebuild. Baseball is a game where you can have a great farm system and great team at the same time, and you don't have to sacrifice one for the other.

[Santoki]

There is a severe lack of position players in the farm that are even on the radar to help fill holes in the next couple of years. I don't see them trading guys like Bautista and Encarnacion away unless they are getting MLB-ready talent like a Wil Myers in return. Rogers doesn't want a last placed, full rebuild team. They won't sell everyone because it'll hurt the bottom line and there is no guarantee the rebuild will be successful. What is guaranteed is a team that can at least garner some attention with big names still on it.

So the guys most likely out the door are the ones with the least trade value (Reyes, Dickey, Morrow). You'll see them plug holes with cheaper, younger fixes and keep the payroll back in the 80s/90s and then try all over again whenever they feel "ready to spend".

That's how I envision things playing out based on Rogers' track record.

[dagger]

There is a severe lack of position players in the farm that are even on the radar to help fill holes in the next couple of years. I don't see them trading guys like Bautista and Encarnacion away unless they are getting MLB-ready talent like a Wil Myers in return. Rogers doesn't want a last placed, full rebuild team. They won't sell everyone because it'll hurt the bottom line and there is no guarantee the rebuild will be successful. What is guaranteed is a team that can at least garner some attention with big names still on it.

So the guys most likely out the door are the ones with the least trade value (Reyes, Dickey, Morrow). You'll see them plug holes with cheaper, younger fixes and keep the payroll back in the 80s/90s and then try all over again whenever they feel "ready to spend".

That's how I envision things playing out based on Rogers' track record.

I don't know how that team would do any better than the one we have.