Deck McGuire Traded to A's for Cash Money

[Avenger]

If Marcus Stroman imploded as a professional and became a launching pad like many of his critics said he would there would be geniuses here who'd say they knew that he would be a bust 30 seconds after we made the pick. After all it's easy to come up with that narrative in hindsight, Stroman was short but his raw stuff was enough to overcome weak college hitters, in the professionals he would be exposed and everyone knows that there is very little precedent for a pitcher of his size to be a successful starter. Everything seems obvious and self evident until it isn't.

[Randle McMurphy]

Here's the Battersbox thread from when he was drafted (including this Keith Law comment on the pick):
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?st ... 3#comments

"Low-upside but very fast to the majors starter -- one GM told me his staff felt McGuire was a No. 4 but would be the fastest starting pitcher to the majors in this draft. This really frees Toronto up to go after the high-ceiling athletes they say they want in this draft."

I guess the 2nd part of that worked out.

[Schad]

While I hated the pick, Deck was a consensus top 10 pick that many had a future #2/#3, and AA was praised by a lot of the draft experts for getting a guy who slid in addition to the haul of kiddies later...it's that rare, strange, and probably fluky occurrence where most of the people paid to know these things were wrong, and a bunch of randoms on the internet were right.

[-MetA4-]

All I remember about Deck is scouting reports like "ceiling of of a 3/4 starter", "straight fastball", "no plus pitches". That was a JPR pick. Not the kind of player I want 11th overall. I'd still prefer to have a Josh Sale falling on his ass than that.

You'd rather have a guy who popped a positive test for methamphetamine? Ooook.

McGuire's profile at the time of the draft was 90-94mph with multiple above-average usable secondary pitches (slider flashed plus) and above-average command, with a strong physical build. He was also battle tested as a consistent performer in the ACC over multiple seasons. There was a reason as to why he was ranked ~#7-10 by virtually everyone in that draft. Popped lots of John Lackey comparisons.

The biggest fall-off was that his supposedly "good" command ended up being average at best, to poor. His secondary stuff declined. I didn't like the pick either, but the prospect we got was not what we (or everyone else) saw at the time of the pick. You can go back and look at his profiles...among the top prospects in that draft the outlook on his overall package was among the most consistent, which is where the "high floor" stuff stemmed from.

[Schad]

All I remember about Deck is scouting reports like "ceiling of of a 3/4 starter", "straight fastball", "no plus pitches". That was a JPR pick. Not the kind of player I want 11th overall. I'd still prefer to have a Josh Sale falling on his ass than that.

You'd rather have a guy who popped a positive test for methamphetamine? Ooook.

He wouldn't have done meth if he was a Jay, dammit! Everything would have been better than great, and he'd be spending his off-days (as he'd be in the bigs, naturally) mentoring children with dread diseases!

[Schad]

Heh, found the 2010 draft thread for the hell of it, and we were also 100% against on the Hayden Simpson pick. Some day a forward-thinking organization will appoint the Jays board as a collective as GM of their team...some day.

Only downside: half the team will be in DFA limbo at any given point.

[Avenger]

Here's the Battersbox thread from when he was drafted (including this Keith Law comment on the pick):
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?st ... 3#comments

"Low-upside but very fast to the majors starter -- one GM told me his staff felt McGuire was a No. 4 but would be the fastest starting pitcher to the majors in this draft. This really frees Toronto up to go after the high-ceiling athletes they say they want in this draft."

I guess the 2nd part of that worked out.

Guess who said this

Sale isn't one of those raw-as-hamburger guys, though...Seiler had him as the most-polished high school hitter in the draft, over Harper. Absolutely beautiful swing; I have no doubt that he's going to be an above-average hitter in the bigs.

Josh Sale has an 81 wRC+ in A+ as a 23 year old.

This is not a dig, believe me, just goes to show you how much of a crapshoot it all is.

[-MetA4-]

11. Toronto Blue Jays – Deck McGuire | RHP | Georgia Tech

It’s not often for a pitcher to pair such size (6-foot-6, 220 pounds) with such pitchability, but McGuire is a rare breed. Capable of throwing four pitches in any count, he’ll go as high as scouts believe in pitches 2-4. We know his fastball will work at the next level, and while it’s not explosive, commanding 92 mph isn’t bad. He trusts his change up, and flashes a plus slider, so it will probably be his curveball that gets scrapped. (Bryan Smith)

[Hoopstarr]

All I remember about Deck is scouting reports like "ceiling of of a 3/4 starter", "straight fastball", "no plus pitches". That was a JPR pick. Not the kind of player I want 11th overall. I'd still prefer to have a Josh Sale falling on his ass than that.

You'd rather have a guy who popped a positive test for methamphetamine? Ooook.

Yes that's what I meant.

Has there been a study done on how quickly "fast track picks" actually get to the majors? I bet the difference is negligible if there's one at all. Like everyone says, the draft is a crapshoot so I'll never understand taking a low ceiling player that high.

[hyper316]

was deck the first pick AA ever made as GM?

[chargerxthirty]

even if Deck is expendable... any time that a team like the Jays are moving any kind of Pitching Depth for 'cash considerations' to a place like Oakland which **** grows pitchers on a god damn vine including scrap heap ones... see: jesse chavez..

but yea... it absolutely infuriates me that we have to sell any assets for cash when we are the Toronto **** Blue Jays owned by Rogers.... so much **** money, so little **** to give... if this organization wanted to be a Yankees type they could be.

[dagger]

Deck as a prospect is history for me, but it will be interesting to see if Oakland can turn him into something, even a Jenkins type long reliever. That would tell me something about the Jays ability to develop talent. So I'll be watching. Of course, if the A's fail with Deck, we will probably re-acquire him at some point and give him a game in the majors before DFA-ing him again.

[-MetA4-]

Deck as a prospect is history for me, but it will be interesting to see if Oakland can turn him into something, even a Jenkins type long reliever. That would tell me something about the Jays ability to develop talent. So I'll be watching. Of course, if the A's fail with Deck, we will probably re-acquire him at some point and give him a game in the majors before DFA-ing him again.

Why would that tell you anything about the Jays ability to "develop talent"? Oakland plays in a huge pitcher's park. We play in one of the strongest hitter's parks in the league, specifically for homeruns. McGuire would not have amounted to anything here. If he succeeds at all in Oakland it will be because the confines of that stadium make him look passable, not because they magically "developed" him.

Our minor league system has taken an astronomical leap this year BTW...for the "Jays cant develop talent" crowd. Dalton Pompey being a textbook example of a kid who was shagging balls in a park in Mississauga, to ~Top 50 prospect category.