Melky Cabrera Breaks Finger (Season-Ending)

[Schad]

Increasingly, it wouldn't surprise me if Melky accepted a qualifying offer. Jorge De La Rosa just took below-QO money for two years coming off two pretty solid seasons in a place where solid is difficult to come by; players appear to be quite scared that they'll end up in the spot that Drew/Morales found themselves in last offseason, marking this as the first time that Boras managed to produce an innovation that bolstered the hand of management.

[dagger]

Increasingly, it wouldn't surprise me if Melky accepted a qualifying offer. Jorge De La Rosa just took below-QO money for two years coming off two pretty solid seasons in a place where solid is difficult to come by; players appear to be quite scared that they'll end up in the spot that Drew/Morales found themselves in last offseason, marking this as the first time that Boras managed to produce an innovation that bolstered the hand of management.

That might work out well for both parties, especially if Melky really, really wants to stay, so long as it's with this core, but not as part of a full rebuild.

[Schad]

That might work out well for both parties, especially if Melky really, really wants to stay, so long as it's with this core, but not as part of a full rebuild.

That's my take on his comment about being in Toronto next year...1 year, ~$15m might ultimately be a better bet than hitting free agency and potentially finding himself without a market. He's the very definition of a 'right place, right time' free agent, who'll get paid only if there's a team that i) needs a LF/DH, ii) doesn't mind that their LF/DH doesn't have 30 HR power, iii) has a tonne of money available, iv) has a short enough window that the possibility of a terminal decline in a couple years isn't a killer. If his agents haven't gotten the sense that such a team is out there (and market exploration tends to happen long before it's technically allowed), he'll be back.


...assuming the Jays make the offer. Which they should, but stranger things have happened.

[C Court]

I'd rather rebuild now, get value for our vets, but if the plan is to try yet again with this core, the team has to take a risk on Melky. No Melky, no core, it makes no sense to go forward with less than we have now.

Agreed. Rebuild is the best option, but my guess is that Alex will re-tool and we'll stumble through another frustrating .500 season and another playoff miss.

[MikeM]

If this team goes 13-9 we're going to end up with 85 wins. How do you rebuild an 85 win team when just the addition of Norris or Sanchez in Happ's spot could get us to 87 wins? A signing like JJ Hardy could get us to 89 wins?

The Angels are probably going to get over 95 wins this year, a 20 win improvement from their disastrous 2013. How did they suddenly turn it around? They didn't make any drastic changes. They had some health and some guys stepped up.

If we win 85 games with Lawrie, EE, Lind missing months at a time and we add Norris, Sanchez, Pompey (later), a full year of Stroman, improved Hutchison, etc. Even just that could be enough.

[Michael Bradley]

Teams will definitely back off Melky if a pick is involved. It really depends on which teams are in on him. Since he plays LF and not particularly well, I'm not sure who will lose a pick for him.

I wonder if a modest two year deal is possible. Something like 2/26 or 2/28. The years are more important than the dollars with him. Accepting the QO is fine too.

[dagger]

If this team goes 13-9 we're going to end up with 85 wins. How do you rebuild an 85 win team when just the addition of Norris or Sanchez in Happ's spot could get us to 87 wins? A signing like JJ Hardy could get us to 89 wins?

The Angels are probably going to get over 95 wins this year, a 20 win improvement from their disastrous 2013. How did they suddenly turn it around? They didn't make any drastic changes. They had some health and some guys stepped up.

If we win 85 games with Lawrie, EE, Lind missing months at a time and we add Norris, Sanchez, Pompey (later), a full year of Stroman, improved Hutchison, etc. Even just that could be enough.

Let's dissect your comment

"If this team goes 13-9"... how likely is that?

"just the addition of Norris or Sanchez in Happ's place could get us to 87 wins". They haven't started a game yet. Happ is probably going to get 10-11 wins, especially if they do go 13-9 the rest of the way. So Sanchez or Norris are supposed to win 12-13?

"87 wins..." Even 87 wins does not get you into the playoffs.

"A signing like JJ Hardy could get us to 89 wins?" Where's the money for that? If we are going to keep Melky, it's going to soak up most of the dollars that might be available for a JJ Hardy signing. And what about money to sign a reliever or two since you are moving Sanchez into the starting lineup? And if you re not signing Melky (or keeping Lind), you are deducting wins, not adding them.

A full year of Stroman helps but listing our injuries and assuming everyone is healthy next season is completely useless, since it would take a miracle of modern science to keep our veterans healthy for an entire season. You just know there will be injuries, there always are. In my mind, your vision is Utopian, as in Guy Laurence having a dream in which God tells him to increase the Jays payroll by $20 million next season.

[MikeM]

Ya I didn't exactly take much time to put forth a thorough business plan but thanks for dissecting it anyway.

I guess there's just no way to make a 4 or 5 win improvement next year even though teams do it every year without trading some of the best players in baseball.

[Schad]

I'd rather rebuild now, get value for our vets, but if the plan is to try yet again with this core, the team has to take a risk on Melky. No Melky, no core, it makes no sense to go forward with less than we have now.

Agreed. Rebuild is the best option, but my guess is that Alex will re-tool and we'll stumble through another frustrating .500 season and another playoff miss.

I agree that rebuilding is the best option, and Melky's the pivot point. If we offer the QO and he turns it down, it's time to press the red button...not because he's the bestest player in the world or anything, but it opens up another hole while pissing off said bestest players in the world.

[Schad]

Ya I didn't exactly take much time to put forth a thorough business plan but thanks for dissecting it anyway.

I guess there's just no way to make a 4 or 5 win improvement next year even though teams do it every year without trading some of the best players in baseball.

We're looking at more than a 4 to 5 win improvement, in all likelihood. This was a down year in the AL East; it's pretty unlikely that we'll end up with a situation in which the teams in the division collectively play .507 ball...for the sake of it, here are the last five seasons:

2013 - .531 winning percentage.
2012 - .519.
2011 - .528.
2010 - .532.
2009 - .520.

Combined: .526 average.

So, on the average record of the five AL East teams this season is heading for 82-80; over the five preceding years, they averaged 85-77. Might not seem like a tonne, but in the supremely unbalanced scheduling of MLB (and the fact that head-to-head games between East team necessarily end at .500) that's a huge dropoff in quality this year, and we failed to take advantage. It's doubtful we'll see such a chance again in 2015.

[Kevin Willis]

A healthier Lawrie and Melky not hurt and we make it really close to making the playoffs. All the other wildcard teams are just as bad as us, they just have a lead so it remains the same. it's unfortunate but I'm glad to be thinking of playoff near the end of September for a change.

I also agree that this year was an opportunity lost but at the start of the season we were supposed to be horrible. We did surpass expectations.

I can't see NY and Bos being that much improved next year. NY loses Jeter and they need to go crazy in free agency to fix some of their holes. Boston sold the farm at the deadline and need a year or two just to get gel. TB without injuries and Baltimore are the main competition next year. Hopefully we can sign Melky and improve our bench. I think our bullpen having an off year was an anomaly. We need a closer too. If Santos and Casey were just marginally better we would be close to Baltimore. Remember how bad Santos was earlier this year.

Plus if by some miracle Morrow could pitch half a year, a starting rotation of Buerhle, Dickey, Hutchinson, Sanchez and Morrow is worthy. But the first sign of serious to me is what they do with Melky.

[Santoki]

A healthier Lawrie and Melky not hurt and we make it really close to making the playoffs. All the other wildcard teams are just as bad as us, they just have a lead so it remains the same. it's unfortunate but I'm glad to be thinking of playoff near the end of September for a change.

I also agree that this year was an opportunity lost but at the start of the season we were supposed to be horrible. We did surpass expectations.

I can't see NY and Bos being that much improved next year. NY loses Jeter and they need to go crazy in free agency to fix some of their holes. Boston sold the farm at the deadline and need a year or two just to get gel. TB without injuries and Baltimore are the main competition next year. Hopefully we can sign Melky and improve our bench. I think our bullpen having an off year was an anomaly. We need a closer too. If Santos and Casey were just marginally better we would be close to Baltimore. Remember how bad Santos was earlier this year.

Plus if by some miracle Morrow could pitch half a year, a starting rotation of Buerhle, Dickey, Hutchinson, Sanchez and Morrow is worthy. But the first sign of serious to me is what they do with Melky.

You listed quite a few what ifs. Essentially, if everything went perfectly we would have won 15 more games and been right there with Baltimore. Or we would at worst been closer to the wildcard. What everyone fails to account for is that every other team around us can say the same thing. What if Tanaka doesn't go down, are the Yankees 5 wins better and right back in the wildcard hunt? You cannot just look at your team in a vacuum because every other team has what ifs. The reality is that every team deals with injuries and underperformance. The Jays didn't have the depth to overcome those issues or the talent in the starting in rotation to carry them through rough offensive patches.

[Kevin Willis]

A healthier Lawrie and Melky not hurt and we make it really close to making the playoffs. All the other wildcard teams are just as bad as us, they just have a lead so it remains the same. it's unfortunate but I'm glad to be thinking of playoff near the end of September for a change.

I also agree that this year was an opportunity lost but at the start of the season we were supposed to be horrible. We did surpass expectations.

I can't see NY and Bos being that much improved next year. NY loses Jeter and they need to go crazy in free agency to fix some of their holes. Boston sold the farm at the deadline and need a year or two just to get gel. TB without injuries and Baltimore are the main competition next year. Hopefully we can sign Melky and improve our bench. I think our bullpen having an off year was an anomaly. We need a closer too. If Santos and Casey were just marginally better we would be close to Baltimore. Remember how bad Santos was earlier this year.

Plus if by some miracle Morrow could pitch half a year, a starting rotation of Buerhle, Dickey, Hutchinson, Sanchez and Morrow is worthy. But the first sign of serious to me is what they do with Melky.

You listed quite a few what ifs. Essentially, if everything went perfectly we would have won 15 more games and been right there with Baltimore. Or we would at worst been closer to the wildcard. What everyone fails to account for is that every other team around us can say the same thing. What if Tanaka doesn't go down, are the Yankees 5 wins better and right back in the wildcard hunt? You cannot just look at your team in a vacuum because every other team has what ifs. The reality is that every team deals with injuries and underperformance. The Jays didn't have the depth to overcome those issues or the talent in the starting in rotation to carry them through rough offensive patches.

I agree, I don't like to look at things in a vacuum as well. I don't think Tanaka is worth 5 wins but who knows. My point is given the season the way it was we weren't that far off and that is promising for next year. Also with a little more luck we could've won 5 - 10 more games and be in the hunt with Baltimore. NY could say the same. TB could say the same. Depth needs to be addressed in our lineup more so than our pitching next year. We need to replace Casey but apparently it's a good free agency for pitchers.

[Santoki]

It's never a good FA for starting pitching when it comes to the Jays because they aren't players. They couldn't afford one year of Ervin Santana so I don't expect them to break open their wallets. But, it's a lot easier to remake a bullpen.

I think people are overlooking just how mediocre to below average our rotation is. Yes, you might have a stud in Stroman but many pitchers before him have struggled once the league figured them out in their sophomore season. You have Hutch whose arm you just can't trust and hasn't exactly blown the doors off the league yet despite the potential being there. Then you have more question marks like Sanchez and Norris who shouldn't really have any expectations going into next season. And, finally, you have Happ, Buerhle and Dickey who are 4ERA guys at best.

I caution anyone who thinks our rotation is going to be fine next year. They have tons of holes and starting pitching is still one of them. A healthy, barely league-average rotation is not going to play in the AL East next year despite the offense somehow statistically putting up Top 5 numbers.

[Kevin Willis]

You also can't compare our pitching staff in a vacuum. How good will Boston and NY's staff be next year?

Our pitching group is:

Buerhle
Dickey
Happ
Hutchinson
Stroman
Sanchez
Norris
Morrow
Cecil
Loup
McGowan
Redmond (possibly) (I may have missed a few, not intentionally)

That's not the best in the majors but it's not that bad either. Plus with our offense we just need pitchers that would keep us in games and not be lights out. Something we weren't good at this season in stretches. It's the most promising our pitching staff has been in years. Now our bench with Tolleson, MK and Francisco needs some work.