Davidi:"The Sense That I Am Getting Is Melky Won't Be Back"

[Schad]

Fair points, I just hate the Jays (and both other Toronto teams have been guilty of it in the past) for saying they want to compete but won't take the extra steps to get there.

I give Rogers credit for jumping the payroll from 80 million to 130 million and AA effed up especially targeting older guys in trades. The Jays could have pretty much kept the prospects and just signed a big time starter for the money and term they tend to not want to give out and done just as well with 105-110 million payroll plus some other minor spending.

They gave the fans so much hope with the increased payroll, then it didn't work and they are close to being a playoff team but aren't willing to spend just slightly more to get there it's disappointing.

We'll see what happens this off-season.

My issue with a long-term deal for Melky is that it doesn't strike me as being 'the extra steps'...it's the sort of short-term-oriented, not-enough-yet-too-much choice that we have specialized in of late. There's a general consensus that we should not be shipping off the top tier kiddies again, but there's also a desire to Go For It in a big and meaningful way. But we simply do not have the financial flexibility to do that via free agency alone, certainly not in a manner that doesn't leave us in a similar position to this season, where we're kinda in it if everything breaks right.

And that's where, even in the short term, Melky's money becomes a bit tricky. Melky at, say, $13m next year is just about right in terms of value. But we may not need 'just about right'...we may need 'radically above-market performance', because some of our good fortune (and overall, we were fairly fortunate) may not return, and we still need to make up several games.

[Michael Bradley]

Yeah, if the Jays are going to spend $12-15M annually on a player, that player will have to provide more value than what Melky provides (or is projected to provide over the next few years). Give that money to Russell Martin or JJ Hardy, and you'll probably see a difference. With Melky, if his bat doesn't produce like it did in 2014, then he'll be very, very mediocre, because he does nothing else of any value. Don't get me wrong, if the alternative is Kevin Pillar in LF, then I'd prefer Melky back, but with ownership as flakey as Rogers and money likely being tight again, they have to be very careful on what they spend the salary room on. It's not like Rogers will allow them to re-sign Melky and sign other improvements.

With AA starting to put prospects into MLB spots (likely out of necessity), I think Pompey-Gose-Bautista left to right is all but assured unless a good LF falls on their lap in the off-season.

[whysoserious]

My issue with a long-term deal for Melky is that it doesn't strike me as being 'the extra steps'...it's the sort of short-term-oriented, not-enough-yet-too-much choice that we have specialized in of late. There's a general consensus that we should not be shipping off the top tier kiddies again, but there's also a desire to Go For It in a big and meaningful way. But we simply do not have the financial flexibility to do that via free agency alone, certainly not in a manner that doesn't leave us in a similar position to this season, where we're kinda in it if everything breaks right.

And that's where, even in the short term, Melky's money becomes a bit tricky. Melky at, say, $13m next year is just about right in terms of value. But we may not need 'just about right'...we may need 'radically above-market performance', because some of our good fortune (and overall, we were fairly fortunate) may not return, and we still need to make up several games.

Fair enough. I'm not 100% on the Melky must come back and if there's better options (you guys follow a lot more closely than I do) or if we get even a bit better defense there with slightly less offense but spend the money to address another position in the infield then I'm for it.

Personally, I want them to trade Dickey and Buerhle and spend actual dollars on a front line Pitcher then let the kids pitch behind that starter and even leave Happ as the fifth guy. But I know they won't do it and so my sense is we'll lose Melky, we'll get a lesser player and come back with basically the same team with improvement in the bullpen.

Even if you had to eat a bit of Buerhle's salary just by letting him and Dickey go, Morrow gone and Melky gone you should have money to play with. I suspect though that we'll never be in it for the free agents and we'll hear the we were in on trades but the asking price was too high.

[StringerBell]

How would you replace his bat?

He has a career OPS of .754 and before going on the roids he was a fringe starter. In his two years with the Blue Jays he put up OPS of .682 and .808. I'd like him back for one year, but I'm certainly not going to cry any tears if we lose his bat (and awful defense).

He's only 29 and doesn't rely on power or bat speed to get his hits. I think his 2011 season in KC and this past year are what we can expect out of him for the next 3 years.

There were only 5 players in the AL with an OPS of .800 or higher. Melky was one of them. Only 12 OF's had a mark of his career average of .754 or higher. Offense is down across the league and you wouldn't be upset if the team lost of the best hitting OF's in the league?

[StringerBell]

And that's where, even in the short term, Melky's money becomes a bit tricky. Melky at, say, $13m next year is just about right in terms of value. But we may not need 'just about right'...we may need 'radically above-market performance', because some of our good fortune (and overall, we were fairly fortunate) may not return, and we still need to make up several games.

13m or even 14m is not much of an overpay for him given what he's produced this year. Value for the team as structured has to come from the young players making next to nothing performing at a high level.

For outfielders, putouts and errors are a very small part of the equation. Range matters far more, and Melky's range is poor and fast diminishing.

He passed my eye test this year. And taking into consideration he doesn't give away bases or runs with errors or throwing to the wrong base and plays one of the least important defensive positions on the diamond, I'm not willing to say his defensive is so bad he's not worth a 3-4 year deal.

There's a reason catchers and first basemen try to get converted to LF's. It's not a demanding position.

We don't know that he can give us two more years like that, and 4 years, $54m is paying him as if he's be as good or better for all four seasons.

As for improving when moved to DH, it generally doesn't work that way, no.

Do you have any reason to believe he can't give us 3 more years like the his 2011 and 2014?

Not to compare him to Edgar Martinez, but after Martinez moved from 3B to DH his already impressive stats went through the roof. Not saying Melky should be moved to DH but some players do benefit from such a move.

[Lateral Quicks]

How would you replace his bat?

He has a career OPS of .754 and before going on the roids he was a fringe starter. In his two years with the Blue Jays he put up OPS of .682 and .808. I'd like him back for one year, but I'm certainly not going to cry any tears if we lose his bat (and awful defense).

He's only 29 and doesn't rely on power or bat speed to get his hits. I think his 2011 season in KC and this past year are what we can expect out of him for the next 3 years.

There were only 5 players in the AL with an OPS of .800 or higher. Melky was one of them. Only 12 OF's had a mark of his career average of .754 or higher. Offense is down across the league and you wouldn't be upset if the team lost of the best hitting OF's in the league?

According to FanGraphs, Melky put up the 31st highest WAR among just outfielders this year. Offensively, he had the 16th highest wRC+, 30th highest .ISO, and 38th highest walk rate. If you expand that to all players (not just outfielders), obviously he's much further down the list. So yeah, he had a good year and I'd like to have him back for another, but he wasn't an elite player by any means.

[Schad]

He's only 29 and doesn't rely on power or bat speed to get his hits. I think his 2011 season in KC and this past year are what we can expect out of him for the next 3 years.

There were only 5 players in the AL with an OPS of .800 or higher. Melky was one of them. Only 12 OF's had a mark of his career average of .754 or higher. Offense is down across the league and you wouldn't be upset if the team lost of the best hitting OF's in the league?

If that player was getting paid like one of the best-hitting OF in the league, all the while playing OF like a guy who should be a DH, I'd be very skeptical, yes.

13m or even 14m is not much of an overpay for him given what he's produced this year. Value for the team as structured has to come from the young players making next to nothing performing at a high level.

We need both, because even with those players making next to nothing, we already need to fill several holes, and with Melky in the fold and a payroll remaining level, we have maybe $20m with which to do so, which isn't a tonne these days.

He passed my eye test this year. And taking into consideration he doesn't give away bases or runs with errors or throwing to the wrong base and plays one of the least important defensive positions on the diamond, I'm not willing to say his defensive is so bad he's not worth a 3-4 year deal.

And that's the problem with the eye test as it pertains to range. When the guy is fifteen feet away when the ball drops, the eye test doesn't hold it against them, even if an average outfielder makes the play.

And catchers/first basemen don't get converted into outfielders all that often. Usually it's out of sheer desperation when an NL club needs to get two 1B types in the lineup, knowing full well that they're going to get bludgeoned defensively.

Do you have any reason to believe he can't give us 3 more years like the his 2011 and 2014?

Not to compare him to Edgar Martinez, but after Martinez moved from 3B to DH his already impressive stats went through the roof. Not saying Melky should be moved to DH but some players do benefit from such a move.

I'll do the legwork later, when I'm not at work, but most of the reviews of such suggest that players don't improve much or at all offensively when moved to DH.

As for a reason to believe that he cannot, Melky's a fairly unathletic guy with one tool. Some of those players age gracefully; many of them don't.

[satyr9]

In a tangentially related matter, how much would you give Yasmany Thomas instead? Obviously, it's kind of a silly question—how would we know—but a 24 year-old with huge power that can be had for only money. That sounds like the kind of thing Jays fans can get worked up about.

After the successes of Cespedes, Puig, Abreu, and seemingly Soler, I'm inclined to be more interested than I have been, even if those successes inflate the price. Surely, it's 80-110m, I just have no idea where and what my cut off would be.

I don't expect it to be the Jays that sign him, but one of these days it'd be nice to grab a free core piece when they pop up like this.

[And1Skip]

In a tangentially related matter, how much would you give Yasmany Thomas instead? Obviously, it's kind of a silly question—how would we know—but a 24 year-old with huge power that can be had for only money. That sounds like the kind of thing Jays fans can get worked up about.

After the successes of Cespedes, Puig, Abreu, and seemingly Soler, I'm inclined to be more interested than I have been, even if those successes inflate the price. Surely, it's 80-110m, I just have no idea where and what my cut off would be.

I don't expect it to be the Jays that sign him, but one of these days it'd be nice to grab a free core piece when they pop up like this.

Speaking of Cubans... any talk about possibly taking a chance on Hector Olivera for 2B?