Jays trade Happ for Saunders

[agkagk]

If your goal is to put your best team on the field and compete for a World Series, than it makes sense for him to be in the pen dominating. Otherwise, sure, triple a or stinking up the rotation is totally the way to go haha

Or, let Sanchez start in Buffalo long enough to potentially be a good call-up option later in the year, should injuries hit. And if they don't, it's a hell of a lot easier to turn a starter into a reliever at a moment's notice rather than the reverse.

I worry that sanchez might lack the fortitude or maturity at this time to consistently spot his fastball for 5+ innings. My concern is that if he starts the year as a SP we may see the same mediocre results that have plagued him throughout his minor league career. Thus killing all that momentum and newfound confidence he has found. I think his best value in the short term and for his development is to pitch out of the pen in the same role as last season. Let him rack up over 100 innings pitching 2-3 innings at a time in high leverage situations. He clearly has the mentality and the arsenal to dominate, he just lacks the focus or consistency to do it over an entire start. I say let him build off his strengths And than a year from now, we can stretch him out as a 23 year old with around 175 innings of work at the big league level. Just seems more synergetic.

[Schad]

I worry that sanchez might lack the fortitude or maturity at this time to consistently spot his fastball for 5+ innings. My concern is that if he starts the year as a SP we may see the same mediocre results that have plagued him throughout his minor league career. Thus killing all that momentum and newfound confidence he has found. I think his best value in the short term and for his development is to pitch out of the pen in the same role as last season. Let him rack up over 100 innings pitching 2-3 innings at a time in high leverage situations. He clearly has the mentality and the arsenal to dominate, he just lacks the focus or consistency to do it over an entire start. I say let him build off his strengths And than a year from now, we can stretch him out as a 23 year old with around 175 innings of work at the big league level. Just seems more synergetic.

Building a young pitcher up from 100 IP one year to 175 the next isn't synergistic, it's a good way to get them injured.

[Skin Blues]

I worry that sanchez might lack the fortitude or maturity at this time to consistently spot his fastball for 5+ innings. My concern is that if he starts the year as a SP we may see the same mediocre results that have plagued him throughout his minor league career. Thus killing all that momentum and newfound confidence he has found. I think his best value in the short term and for his development is to pitch out of the pen in the same role as last season. Let him rack up over 100 innings pitching 2-3 innings at a time in high leverage situations. He clearly has the mentality and the arsenal to dominate, he just lacks the focus or consistency to do it over an entire start. I say let him build off his strengths And than a year from now, we can stretch him out as a 23 year old with around 175 innings of work at the big league level. Just seems more synergetic.

Building a young pitcher up from 100 IP one year to 175 the next isn't synergistic, it's a good way to get them injured.

Not being snarky, but is there any actual research into this? It sounds like a Verducci-style argument that sounds like it should be true and confirmation bias lets us all just believe it. And everything I've seen about the Verducci effect basically just debunks it. Obviously a lot of GMs buy into it but we don't want to wander into even more logical fallacies by using that as evidence that the theory has merit.

Of course, having any pitcher throw 175 innings is a good way to get them injured regardless of what they did the previous year, I just don't know that it does any good to slowly ramp them up to that level rather than going straight from RP to SP.

[Nights King]

Not being snarky, but is there any actual research into this? It sounds like a Verducci-style argument that sounds like it should be true and confirmation bias lets us all just believe it. And everything I've seen about the Verducci effect basically just debunks it. Obviously a lot of GMs buy into it but we don't want to wander into even more logical fallacies by using that as evidence that the theory has merit.

Of course, having any pitcher throw 175 innings is a good way to get them injured regardless of what they did the previous year, I just don't know that it does any good to slowly ramp them up to that level rather than going straight from RP to SP.

No there isn't, its one of those things people accept as the truth because it sounds
logical which is obviously totally unscientific.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=19497

[stealthmode]

good trade. Happ is more fit for a reliever role I think or fill in starter due to injury. excited to see what saunders has to offer

[Schad]

Not being snarky, but is there any actual research into this? It sounds like a Verducci-style argument that sounds like it should be true and confirmation bias lets us all just believe it. And everything I've seen about the Verducci effect basically just debunks it. Obviously a lot of GMs buy into it but we don't want to wander into even more logical fallacies by using that as evidence that the theory has merit.

Of course, having any pitcher throw 175 innings is a good way to get them injured regardless of what they did the previous year, I just don't know that it does any good to slowly ramp them up to that level rather than going straight from RP to SP.

It's more the difference in mechanical consistency one needs as a starter rather than a reliever, rather than the Verducci effect. Sanchez has had difficulty repeating his mechanics to date, and that's not just a problem from a performance standpoint, it heightens the risk of injury. Make him a full-time reliever for a year and then throw him back into the rotation for a full workload and I'd be very concerned that he'd be mechanically ragged.

[Skin Blues]

Not being snarky, but is there any actual research into this? It sounds like a Verducci-style argument that sounds like it should be true and confirmation bias lets us all just believe it. And everything I've seen about the Verducci effect basically just debunks it. Obviously a lot of GMs buy into it but we don't want to wander into even more logical fallacies by using that as evidence that the theory has merit.

Of course, having any pitcher throw 175 innings is a good way to get them injured regardless of what they did the previous year, I just don't know that it does any good to slowly ramp them up to that level rather than going straight from RP to SP.

It's more the difference in mechanical consistency one needs as a starter rather than a reliever, rather than the Verducci effect. Sanchez has had difficulty repeating his mechanics to date, and that's not just a problem from a performance standpoint, it heightens the risk of injury. Make him a full-time reliever for a year and then throw him back into the rotation for a full workload and I'd be very concerned that he'd be mechanically ragged.

So it's because he doesn't have repeatable mechanics, and not because he's making a big innings jump? The way you wrote it made it seem like the innings jump itself was the part that was dangerous, without specifically referring to Sanchez.

[Schad]

So it's because he doesn't have repeatable mechanics, and not because he's making a big innings jump? The way you wrote it made it seem like the innings jump itself was the part that was dangerous, without specifically referring to Sanchez.

Those two things can't really be disentangled. Young pitchers tend to have the wonderful combination of fantastic arm speed and imprecise mechanics, two things that work well enough over 10-30 pitches as a max-effort reliever, but considerably less well as a 100 pitch starter, both in terms of performance and injury risk.

My fear is that the work that has been done to make Sanchez into a viable starter -- keeping him from overthrowing to allow him to go deeper into games, mixing in his changeup so that he isn't as reliant on his velocity and curve -- will be undone by a lengthy stretch in a bullpen, and when reinserted into the rotation he'll attempt to pitch in the fashion that worked for him as a reliever...which as a starter is likely to open him up to greater risk of injury.

[polo007]

According to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, the Blue Jays will pay the difference between what Happ earns and what Saunders will make in 2014.

Happ has a $6.7- million US option for next season, while after earning $2.3 million in 2013 Saunders is eligible for salary arbitration. He could earn in the $3- million range.

That could make the difference $3.7 million range which the Jays will pay Seattle.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/12/06/bl ... llpen-arms

OH, THOSE CASH CONSIDERATIONS

The Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners completed a 1-for-1 deal this week.

Yet, there was more to the trade that sent lefty J.A. Happ to Seattle for left fielder Michael Saunders.

The Jays will pay the difference between what Happ earns and what Saunders will make in 2014, according to those familiar with the contract talks.

Happ has a $6.7- million US option for next season, while after earning $2.3 million in 2013 Saunders is eligible for salary arbitration. He could earn in the $3- million range.

That could make the difference $3.7 million range which the Jays will pay Seattle.

Both clubs refused to confirm that the Jays would be paying the difference in salaries.

[flatjacket1]

good trade. Happ is more fit for a reliever role I think or fill in starter due to injury. excited to see what saunders has to offer

He is better as a starter, as his career shows. In the 2nd half of the season he had great command, and threw a 3.56 ERA across 13 starts. He underwent a major change in his mechanics during ST. He now throws 3/4 instead of over the top, which for a lefty is mega important. If you look at his splits in 2013 compare to 2014, lefties actually hit better (way better actually) when he threw over the top. Now his splits are around even. Of course, dropping your arm slot a few inches is a pretty major change, so it took some time to get used to it.

He actually walked 15 less batters in the 2nd half than the first, despite pitching more innings. I would say he is a huge breakout candidate in 2015, and pitching for the Mariners I wouldn't be surprised to see him pitch 25 starts of 3.5 ERA ball.

Not saying he is a future ace or anything, but he was valuable. There was a reason the Mariners wanted him. Saunders has a lot of potential upside too, so it's not like we wasted him or anything. I personally could have lived without the trade, but I don't think it is a bad one.

Also regarding innings pitched, I believe it has a lot more to do with delievery than IP, but IP do play a role. If you play an extra 50 innings from the previous year (let's say you pitched 100 IP in 2014), you should reasonably have around a 50% higher chance of injury, as you are throwing more. If you fall off the mound hard, have a jerky delievery or have a shorter stride you should be watched closely or changed.