Jays opening day payroll projected to drop over $10m

[dagger]

Jeff Passan has crunched the numbers for all 30 teams and using projected arbitration figures, concluded

-Opening day payrolls will be up $12m on average.
-Rebuilding Phillies will have the biggest drop
-Five richest estimated payrolls for 2015: Dodgers ($262.6M), Yankees ($210.9M), Red Sox ($180.5M), Tigers ($168.8M) and Giants ($160.7M).

The rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies, a perennial high-payroll team, dropped to eighth with a $136.4 million team – more than $43.6 million lower than their opening day figure in 2014. Arizona shed the next-highest figure, dipping $27.3 million to an estimated $85.4 million, and Atlanta was third, going from $110.9 million in 2014 to $93 million in 2015. Also down: the Los Angeles Angels ($145.5 million) and Toronto ($122.5 million), both a little more than $10 million under 2014.

It boils down to this: Jays fans have been lied to and buggered by Rogers.
If the reason is the Canadian dollar, it begs the question of whether the Jays laid in any currency hedges to protect themselves against a decline in the CAD. And if they didn't, Beeston should indeed be fired. That alone would be a dismissal offence.

[Randle McMurphy]

Cue the Rogers apologists saying a fringe top 10 payroll is something to be grateful for.

[dagger]

We know MLSE hedges currency for all its teams, and that US TV revenue provides a natural hedge for the Raptors in particular. The Jays had the advantage that through the bulk of 2014, the Canadian dollar declined slowly - slow enough they could have hedged the entire 2015 payroll at 92-93 cents US instead of 83 cents US. It's only in the last six weeks or so that the dollar collapse has accelerated sharply. Maybe Beeston was too busy being insubordinate.

We know ticket prices are up across the board for 2015. So prices up, payroll down, and if the Jays have no flexibility to improve the opening day roster - and we also seem to be stuck right now with over $6m in backup catchers - then there is little chance of any flexibility around the trade deadline in July.

[Michael Bradley]

Our first hint should have been the way Martin's deal was backloaded. His deal goes 7/15/20/20/20. Initially it could have been interpreted as the Jays leaving 2015 salary open for other upgrades, but in reality, it was a way to fit Martin into the shrunken 2015 payroll at all. If it works, great. If not, AA won't have to deal with the expensive years, anyway. Very Marlins-esque.

I thought last season was the biggest wasted opportunity in the last 20+ years as far as making the playoffs. The Jays are a good team right now (on paper), but need a starter and a 2B. It might be another wasted year unless things break right, and I don't even blame AA because he's done about as good a job as anyone could have this off-season by adding two of the best players over the last two seasons (WAR).

[dagger]

Our first hint should have been the way Martin's deal was backloaded. His deal goes 7/15/20/20/20. Initially it could have been interpreted as the Jays leaving 2015 salary open for other upgrades, but in reality, it was a way to fit Martin into the shrunken 2015 payroll at all. If it works, great. If not, AA won't have to deal with the expensive years, anyway. Very Marlins-esque.

I thought last season was the biggest wasted opportunity in the last 20+ years as far as making the playoffs. The Jays are a good team right now (on paper), but need a starter and a 2B. It might be another wasted year unless things break right, and I don't even blame AA because he's done about as good a job as anyone could have this off-season by adding two of the best players over the last two seasons (WAR).

I think that's a fair way to look at AA's work, and part of the lower payroll might be an obligation to honour an IFA obligation like Guerrero Jr within reduced parameters. I just object to how Beeston shoved the BS at the paying customers about a higher payroll, just enough BS to convince season seat holders to renew at higher prices thinking they were helping fund a higher payroll, then has the media shills walk us all the way back by almost $20 million. I looked at the day by day decline of the Canadian dollar on the Bank of Canada website, and the real deterioration took place from September and especially October onward. The team had plenty of time to hedge against a steep decline. I suppose Beeston is going to blame this all on the Saudis.

[Yosemite Dan]

Cue the Rogers apologists saying a fringe top 10 payroll is something to be grateful for.

And then followed by the AA apologists who say he's handcuffed by a fringe top 10 payroll and forced him to acquire Reyes and Buehrle

[dballislife]

i dont think this team is ran by morons...we're very good now...but another 10-15mill this year can turn us into a great legit team, we gotta do that

[Lateral Quicks]

That AA was able to improve (on paper, anyways) the team as much as he did while *decreasing* salary is pretty amazing. It's looking like Beeston lied to us, and I don't appreciate it. The payroll may be up marginally in CAD terms, but as dagger rightly points out hedging should have been in place. You can hedge years in advance, and it wasn't that long ago that the CAD was worth more 5-10% more than the USD.

[tecumseh18]

Is this why Beeston wasn't renewed? Because he tried to manipulate Rogers into a larger payroll by making the (albeit) vague promise?

But surely he couldn't have said such a thing if he didn't have corporate backing - could he?

[Schad]

Couple things, though. Passan doesn't appear to be counting Romero because he's not on the 40-man, which accounts for the difference between his figures and that of Baseball Reference, but (regrettably) we are paying him $7.5m this year. That also presumes that we won't spend another dime, which isn't yet a given.

[dagger]

Couple things, though. Passan doesn't appear to be counting Romero because he's not on the 40-man, which accounts for the difference between his figures and that of Baseball Reference, but (regrettably) we are paying him $7.5m this year. That also presumes that we won't spend another dime, which isn't yet a given.

Romero wasn't on the opening day roster last season, so he wouldn't have figured in the 2014 open day salary number either.

[Schad]

Couple things, though. Passan doesn't appear to be counting Romero because he's not on the 40-man, which accounts for the difference between his figures and that of Baseball Reference, but (regrettably) we are paying him $7.5m this year. That also presumes that we won't spend another dime, which isn't yet a given.

Romero wasn't on the opening day roster last season, so he wouldn't have figured in the 2014 open day salary number either.

Then there's something just plain odd about what he is/isn't including, because it doesn't square with the estimates elsewhere. Our opening day payroll was $137.2m last year, per Cot's; our estimated payroll per B-R, with no additions is $128.5m (both numbers include Romero). It's not a massive gap from that to 'more than $10m', but it's a sufficient enough one that there's something missing from the equation.

[Graham's Cracker]

Couple things, though. Passan doesn't appear to be counting Romero because he's not on the 40-man, which accounts for the difference between his figures and that of Baseball Reference, but (regrettably) we are paying him $7.5m this year. That also presumes that we won't spend another dime, which isn't yet a given.

I was thinking that his report was a bit presumptuous as well. I don't know the point of this type of article when two of the biggest Free Agents haven't even signed yet. Rosters are a long way from being set. Although I am getting skeptical that the Blue Jays add much more than NRI's at this point.

[Randle McMurphy]

Cue the Rogers apologists saying a fringe top 10 payroll is something to be grateful for.

And then followed by the AA apologists who say he's handcuffed by a fringe top 10 payroll and forced him to acquire Reyes and Buehrle

What would we possibly do here without your black-and-white thinking and straw man arguments?

[Randle McMurphy]

Is this why Beeston wasn't renewed? Because he tried to manipulate Rogers into a larger payroll by making the (albeit) vague promise?

But surely he couldn't have said such a thing if he didn't have corporate backing - could he?

Could be any number of things. We've heard the rumors about the Manfred/Reinsdorf situation that Beeston was involved with. I also suspect Rogers didn't like having the information leaked about the Jays passing around the hat to sign Ervin last spring (which Beeston actually amazingly confirmed to the media). Doesn't get much more embarrassing than that from an ownership perspective.

[Michael Bradley]

Our first hint should have been the way Martin's deal was backloaded. His deal goes 7/15/20/20/20. Initially it could have been interpreted as the Jays leaving 2015 salary open for other upgrades, but in reality, it was a way to fit Martin into the shrunken 2015 payroll at all. If it works, great. If not, AA won't have to deal with the expensive years, anyway. Very Marlins-esque.

I thought last season was the biggest wasted opportunity in the last 20+ years as far as making the playoffs. The Jays are a good team right now (on paper), but need a starter and a 2B. It might be another wasted year unless things break right, and I don't even blame AA because he's done about as good a job as anyone could have this off-season by adding two of the best players over the last two seasons (WAR).

I think that's a fair way to look at AA's work, and part of the lower payroll might be an obligation to honour an IFA obligation like Guerrero Jr within reduced parameters. I just object to how Beeston shoved the BS at the paying customers about a higher payroll, just enough BS to convince season seat holders to renew at higher prices thinking they were helping fund a higher payroll, then has the media shills walk us all the way back by almost $20 million. I looked at the day by day decline of the Canadian dollar on the Bank of Canada website, and the real deterioration took place from September and especially October onward. The team had plenty of time to hedge against a steep decline. I suppose Beeston is going to blame this all on the Saudis.

Beeston's quote on the radio was as definitive as possible, too. He flat out said payroll was going to increase from the $137M it was last season. Usually he would make vague comments about how the money is there if we need it, and things like that, but there is no way to hide from the comments he made.

Typically I'd say he lied (as usual with him) but with the Duquette stuff leaking, it's entirely possible that plans changed without his knowledge. Hard to say. Either way, it comes off poorly. I'm still a bit in shock that AA was able to get Martin and Donaldson despite shedding payroll.

[C Court]

Bob McCown mentioned a rumour that Beeston did something that really pissed off Rogers. But he wouldn't give details.

Maybe Beeston publicly announcing an increase in payroll without prior approval from Rogers is what pissed off Rogers? Could it be that Beeston thought he could force a payroll increase by going public and embarrassing Rogers?

[Mehar]

Absolute joke. That is all i have to say. All off-season, guys like Blair, Shi Davidi and Mike Shillner said the Jays payroll will increase and be in the 137-40 M range. Beeston said the same. In the end- all the fans are hoodwinked and that is not the case. What a surprise. I am tired of being hoodwinked by this organization. I told my Dad to cancel his season tickets last month, which i am glad he did. My interest in this team has plummeted to an all-time low. An extra 25-30 M and this team could have been a legit AL East Contender in my opinion. It is not like Rogers is hurting for money. However- this ownership just chooses to be a pretender year in and year out.

I had enough of this team. Wish them the best in 2015, but my focus and energies will be devoted to other things. Do not know how others feel, but this off-season has left me disgusted. 3 years and 42 M for Cabrera was not an outrageous deal, and i definitely thought they should have brought him back at that amount. They downgraded in two positions and upgraded in two, with the same starting staff and a bullpen that is left to improve with castoffs. This team is not a playoff team on paper. No point in following them, since it is obvious this ownership does not want to win as much as its diehard fans want to across this country. It is pathetic that this team has the longest playoff drought in all of the 4 major sports, with an entire country rooting for them. It is what it is. Have no more hunger and passion left to follow this team anymore. 21 years of missed playoffs does that to you i guess.

[Schad]

I had enough of this team. Wish them the best in 2015, but my focus and energies will be devoted to other things. Do not know how others feel, but this off-season has left me disgusted. 3 years and 42 M for Cabrera was not an outrageous deal, and i definitely thought they should have brought him back at that amount. They downgraded in two positions and upgraded in two, with the same starting staff and a bullpen that is left to improve with castoffs. This team is not a playoff team on paper. No point in following them, since it is obvious this ownership does not want to win as much as its diehard fans want to across this country. It is pathetic that this team has the longest playoff drought in all of the 4 major sports, with an entire country rooting for them. It is what it is. Have no more hunger and passion left to follow this team anymore. 21 years of missed playoffs does that to you i guess.

Hating Rogers is perfectly fine; we all do! Being disgusted by this offseason as a whole? Ye gods your expectations are either too high or misplaced entirely, because those two upgrades are pretty damned massive compared to the two downgrades.

[akakalakin]

I had enough of this team. Wish them the best in 2015, but my focus and energies will be devoted to other things. Do not know how others feel, but this off-season has left me disgusted. 3 years and 42 M for Cabrera was not an outrageous deal, and i definitely thought they should have brought him back at that amount. They downgraded in two positions and upgraded in two, with the same starting staff and a bullpen that is left to improve with castoffs. This team is not a playoff team on paper. No point in following them, since it is obvious this ownership does not want to win as much as its diehard fans want to across this country. It is pathetic that this team has the longest playoff drought in all of the 4 major sports, with an entire country rooting for them. It is what it is. Have no more hunger and passion left to follow this team anymore. 21 years of missed playoffs does that to you i guess.

Hating Rogers is perfectly fine; we all do! Being disgusted by this offseason as a whole? Ye gods your expectations are either too high or misplaced entirely, because those two upgrades are pretty damned massive compared to the two downgrades.

Time will tell, I don't think the two upgrades will be as much as you think. Combined with the downgrades and the inevitable injury or two and the season has disaster written all over it.