OFFICIAL: 2015 Spring Training Thread

[Tyrone Slothrop]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Wilnerness590/status/581543372197855232[/tweet]

[Randle McMurphy]

And yet another reminder of the high failure rate of prospects, even top ones. All that's left from the remains of the Halladay trade now is Dickey, Thole, and Travis.

[James_Raptors]

Yup, looks like he's gone to the White Sox. I had high hopes on him, once upon a time.

[Lateral Quicks]

And yet another reminder of the high failure rate of prospects, even top ones. All that's left from the remains of the Halladay trade now is Dickey, Thole, and Travis.

Not great, but possibly not horrendous if Travis works out.

The return looks better if you frame it as Drabek, d'Arnaud and Travis.

[Michael Bradley]

Not surprising. If his velocity is not back and his command is still crap, then there was really no point in keeping him, and at the same time his last name was going to get him claimed by some team willing to take a chance that he can regain his previous prospect form.

I will never forgive Beeston for 2009. Deliberately punting the season and forcing a Hall of Famer out of town for absolutely no reason was a huge black mark for the organization. Drabek turning into ****, in a way, is poetic justice. Hopefully Travis can make that trade at least somewhat worthwhile, although d'Arnaud looks pretty good at catcher for the Mets right now.

[tecumseh18]

And yet another reminder of the high failure rate of prospects, even top ones. All that's left from the remains of the Halladay trade now is Dickey, Thole, and Travis.

Do we know if AA actually turned down Drabek and Snider for Greinke back in the day? I'm not sure this board supported the proposed move, because it was a rental situation.

[Randle McMurphy]

And yet another reminder of the high failure rate of prospects, even top ones. All that's left from the remains of the Halladay trade now is Dickey, Thole, and Travis.

Do we know if AA actually turned down Drabek and Snider for Greinke back in the day? I'm not sure this board supported the proposed move, because it was a rental situation.

No, that was just a rumour of what a possible trade for Greinke could be. But I was completely against it and I can't think of many who differed.

[Schad]

Likely would have been against it as well (don't remember). Prospects fail at a very high rate, but so too do trades in which you ship a bunch of assets for a one-year rental. It's hard to evaluate moves not made -- and sometimes, moves made -- because the failure rate of everything is so damned high.

[Nights King]

So we're looking at a Smoak/Valencia platoon? I guess that platoon probably ends up combining for a .750-.800 OPS "player" so it's alright I guess.

Valencia does have a career 377 wOBA and 138 wRC+ against lefties but those are based only on 552 plate appearances, this is where unregressed platoon splits can be so misleading because no one should think that he's a top 15 hitter in Baseball when facing RHP. The Book says RHH vs LHP needs 2200 PA's to have an idea of true talent, otherwise you have to regress the current splits.

When regressed and combined with his projected numbers, his projected wOBA this season against lefties is .323

When you regress Smoak's platoon splits you find out that they're actually pretty negligable, his projected wOBA against righties is pretty much the same as his overall projections, .322

So even if you utilize Smoak and Valencia perfectly, their combined projection is around wOBA of .322, for reference sake that is bottom 5 production at that position. Actually Valencia serves no purpose as a paltoon partner because Smoak is likely to be just as good against lefties as him. First base is going to be a black hole, no way around it. Here's fangraphs projections at first base accounting for defence, its ugly.

Smoak has to have some sort of a career revival ala Encarnacion and Bautista for the Jays to get much production from there.

[Lateral Quicks]

So we're looking at a Smoak/Valencia platoon? I guess that platoon probably ends up combining for a .750-.800 OPS "player" so it's alright I guess.

Valencia does have a career 138 wRC+ against lefties but those are based only on 552 plate appearances, this is where unregressed platoon splits can be so misleading because no one should think that he's a top 15 hitter in Baseball when facing RHP. The Book says RHH vs LHP needs 2200 PA's to have an idea of true talent, otherwise you have to regress the current splits.

When regressed and combined with his projected numbers, his projected wOBA this season against lefties is .323

When you regress Smoak's platoon splits you find out that they're actually pretty negligable, his projected wOBA against righties is pretty much the same as his overall projections, .322

So even if you utilize Smoak and Valencia perfectly, their combined projection is around wOBA of .322, for reference sake that is bottom 5 production at that position. First base is going to be a black hole, no way around it. Here's fangraphs projections at first base accounting for defence, its ugly.

Smoak has to have some sort of a career revival ala Encarnacion and Bautista for the Jays to get much production from there.

Interesting post. Granted I haven't read The Book, but I don't think we need to see 2200PA's to assess talent. A full year's worth of at-bats stretched over multiple years is a pretty good sample. Expecting Valencia to hit for an .800 OPS or better isn't a stretch by any means.

As for Smoak, he'll benefit from being out of Safeco and being in Rogers Centre. Even still he'll probably be a weak link. The good news is that with EE and Valencia in the mix, he'll probably play half or less of our games this season.

You're right that 1B is a weak spot, but I'd hardly call it a black hole at this point.

[Nights King]

Interesting post. Granted I haven't read The Book, but I don't think we need to see 2200PA's to assess talent. A full year's worth of at-bats stretched over multiple years is a pretty good sample. Expecting Valencia to hit for an .800 OPS or better isn't a stretch by any means.

As for Smoak, he'll benefit from being out of Safeco and being in Rogers Centre. Even still he'll probably be a weak link. The good news is that with EE and Valencia in the mix, he'll probably play half or less of our games this season.

You're right that 1B is a weak spot, but I'd hardly call it a black hole at this point.

This wasn't Tom Tango et al.'s opinion BTW, this is what their research demonstrated, that platoon splits are highly unreliable unless you're looking at a good sized sample. For LHH vs RHP you need around 1000 PA's to truly determine a platoon split, for switch hitters its much lower at around 600 PA's.


You might be interested in this article, there's a good explainer and a couple of examples applying regression to platoon splits.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimati ... oon-skill/

[Randle McMurphy]

"We’re not concerned," says Anthopoulos. "No one knows what the health is going to be, but in the past we’d talk about we only have so many innings, and so on, that’s not how we’re going to look at it. We’re not going to sit there and say, ‘Oh, a guy had a 40 percent jump, or a 30-inning jump.’ That’s not going to factor in. How someone feels, how someone is doing, what our trainers are saying, what our strength coaches are saying, how we’re monitoring the players, that’s going to be what we look at more so than just an artificial number on a sheet. …

"I don’t know that anyone can say what we’re doing as an industry works," he adds. "We all seem to be doing a lot of the same things and it’s not working. So we’re going to look to do some other things."

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/bl ... oung-arms/

A story on how the Jays are bucking convention with their young pitchers this year in terms of innings. Guess only time will tell whether they are trendsetters.

[Michael Bradley]

"We’re not concerned," says Anthopoulos. "No one knows what the health is going to be, but in the past we’d talk about we only have so many innings, and so on, that’s not how we’re going to look at it. We’re not going to sit there and say, ‘Oh, a guy had a 40 percent jump, or a 30-inning jump.’ That’s not going to factor in. How someone feels, how someone is doing, what our trainers are saying, what our strength coaches are saying, how we’re monitoring the players, that’s going to be what we look at more so than just an artificial number on a sheet. …

"I don’t know that anyone can say what we’re doing as an industry works," he adds. "We all seem to be doing a lot of the same things and it’s not working. So we’re going to look to do some other things."

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/bl ... oung-arms/

A story on how the Jays are bucking convention with their young pitchers this year in terms of innings. Guess only time will tell whether they are trendsetters.

Pitcher injuries are so common nowadays that the above approach probably won't lead to any more or any less injuries than a strict IP cap. A pitcher's arm seems to have a shelf-life regardless of how they are used. Major abuse can expedite injury but I don't think overly cautious behavior will necessarily prevent it. There has to be some variables involved like how the pitcher's mechanics are holding up over the course of the season, if he's pitching tired, if his delivery is too violent, etc. Those seem to be the main culprits of injuries anyway. That's why I'm dreading a rotation without Mark Buehrle and possibly R.A. Dickey next season (or 2016 in Dickey's case assuming his option is picked up, which it should be barring a complete collapse). It will be interesting to see what type of results the Jays get. That might explain why they don't seem overly concerned about converting Castro and Osuna into starters for 2016. I think the latter is far more reckless than, say, letting Sanchez throw 50 more innings this year than last since at least he's been stretched out for a number of years, but whatever.

The fact that the Jays project to have four SP's in their bullpen in 2015 (Estrada, Redmond, Castro, and Osuna) will be interesting. I don't think they will piggyback starters, but I think we might see more multiple inning outings from relievers, which would be a good thing for Osuna and Castro. I don't think Estrada and Redmond provide much value as short relievers, and it remains to be seen if Osuna and Castro can even get MLB hitters out at their current age when the games matter. Cecil, Loup, and Hynes (against lefties) seem to be the only real short inning options right now.

[BigLeagueChew]

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos was notably on hand to watch Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon work early in his outing today against the Yankees, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports. While Salisbury notes that it is impossible to know the reason for the visit, Toronto obviously has some questions at the back of its pen and has been mentioned as a plausible suitor for the veteran righty. Papelbon has looked strong this spring, as the report further notes, though his contract (and, in particular, its vesting clause for next year) remains the largest factor in his trade value.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/east-notes-papelbon-warren-victorino.html

[BigLeagueChew]

Also , it looks like the rotation is setting up to be this to start the season.

Hutch
Dickey
Norris
Buerhle
Sanchez

[dagger]

Keep an eye on this. The Sox losing Christian Vasquez for any length of time would be huge. He's not only a good hitter, strong defender, great thrower, he's being given major credit as a pitch framer and was being counted on to help the BoSox young pitchers.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/581794838577836033[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/581800229491593216[/tweet]

[Yosemite Dan]

Also , it looks like the rotation is setting up to be this to start the season.

Hutch
Dickey
Norris
Buerhle
Sanchez

As it should be. Out of curiousity, whats Dickey's option next year? Team or player? I know he gives us 200 innings but I've tired of trying to shoehorn Thole onto the roster and wasting a spot just so someone can be his battery mate.

[BigLeagueChew]

As it should be. Out of curiousity, whats Dickey's option next year? Team or player? I know he gives us 200 innings but I've tired of trying to shoehorn Thole onto the roster and wasting a spot just so someone can be his battery mate.

It's a team option. $12M Team Option, $1M Buyout. I think that will get picked up and Buerhle is a free agent next year, freeing up his salary of $20M and we should get a pick for him when he signs elsewhere.

[Lateral Quicks]

Keep an eye on this. The Sox losing Christian Vasquez for any length of time would be huge. He's not only a good hitter, strong defender, great thrower, he's being given major credit as a pitch framer and was being counted on to help the BoSox young pitchers.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/581794838577836033[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/581800229491593216[/tweet]

We clearly have all the leverage here. Mookie Betts for Navarro sounds fair.

[Fairview4Life]

Keep an eye on this. The Sox losing Christian Vasquez for any length of time would be huge. He's not only a good hitter, strong defender, great thrower, he's being given major credit as a pitch framer and was being counted on to help the BoSox young pitchers.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/581794838577836033[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/581800229491593216[/tweet]

We clearly have all the leverage here. Mookie Betts for Navarro sounds fair.

:D

I'd subscribe to your RSS feed.