Rosenthal: "Tulo traded to Blue Jays"

[dagger]

After next year, we'll likely be subtracting two key players, and we won't have the funds to adequately replace them

We've already replaced them. Tulo and Donaldson are each far more valuable than Bautista and Edwin, they're each a few years younger and signed longer, and play positions that are more difficult to fill. Martin projects as a higher WAR player than both of the potential departees too, and that's not even taking into account pitch framing. So there's 3 players that are better than the two we're worried about leaving. Yeah Martin's old, but a guy who's put up back to back >126 wRC+ in full healthy seasons is unlikely to be a liability in 2017, especially with his defense. Considering Edwin's lack of glove, is he really going to be that hard to replace anyway? He projects as little more than a 2 WAR defensive liability.

The panic about our future post-Joey Bats is way over-stated in my opinion.

We've replaced them for more money, and even with them here with their future replacements, we're struggling to compete. Yes, they're declining, as the newer crop will in a couple years. But they've provided something approaching 5 WAR this year (going from memory; Fangraphs is being a dick at work), and that's not easily replaced when you gots no money.

In a world where a good player can get $20m and still be underpaid, it's hard to fill 22+ roster spots well with $50-60m and a farm system that's used as trade bait, but that's likely what we're looking at in a couple years, unless the dollar beats current projections by a lot. So we'll again have a couple great players, and we'll bemoan the fact that it would be so much easier if Rogers cared, but that's silly because they don't and never have and never will.

I just read a forecast on Globe and Mail.com of a .65 cent dollar in 2016. Maybe it own't be quite so severe, but if that were to happen, don't expect much if any of the payroll savings from dropping Buehrle, Dickey, Romero, Navarro to survive. It's a waste of time to complain about Rogers. We know the modus operandi of a publicly traded corporation, we know its particular modus operandi as a media content company. It's reached the point where complaining about Rogers says more about the fans and media than it does about Rogers. That's why I have progressively moved to the camp that believes the only model by which the Jays can achieve sustainable success is the small market concept that emphasizes smart drafting and patient development. Except the marketplace here loves its mediocrity, as witnessed by all those Jays fans that drive hundreds of clicks to watch them on the road, and all the media that demands action of the GM to end the 22 year drought. It's the same story as the Leafs until things reached such a level of suckitude that even the Rogers/TSN media hacks had to fall in line around a rebuild.

[Lateral Quicks]

It's true that adding Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Travis, and Martin have created a viable core for the next 2-3 years. If that's AA's plan, then hopefully Reyes is just the first of the old core to go. Letting EE and/or Bautista go just for a single compensation pick would be a huge missed opportunity. AA's all in this year, but he has to seriously look at moving at least one of them this off-season.

With the imminent trade/promotion of the likes of Pompey, Norris, and Boyd, there will be a massive void of upside talent in AA and AAA. How exactly does AA intend to fill out the rotation/bullpen/remaining positions with no prospects to work with and limited money? At the end of the day, you can't ship out all your youth unless you're prepared to spend like the Dodgers or Yankees. In the last year alone we've shipped out Nolin, Graveman, Hoffman, Castro (and Happ FWIW). There's two fifths of a rotation at least - and for dirt cheap money - right there.

This team is extremely unbalanced. I'm all for upgrades, and supported the Martin signing and Donaldson trade (who didn't). But consistency wins ball games, and having every other start turn into a blowout isn't a recipe for success. Scoring an extra run in a game where your starter has set you back 7-0 after 2 innings isn't worth very much.

[Michael Bradley]

After next year, we'll likely be subtracting two key players, and we won't have the funds to adequately replace them

We've already replaced them. Tulo and Donaldson are each far more valuable than Bautista and Edwin, they're each a few years younger and signed longer, and play positions that are more difficult to fill. Martin projects as a higher WAR player than both of the potential departees too, and that's not even taking into account pitch framing. So there's 3 players we've added in the past 6 months that are better than the two we're worried about leaving. Yeah Martin's old, but a guy who's put up back to back >126 wRC+ in full healthy seasons is unlikely to be a liability in 2017, especially with his defense. Considering Edwin's lack of glove, is he really going to be that hard to replace anyway? He projects as little more than a 2 WAR defensive liability.

The panic about our future post-Joey Bats is way over-stated in my opinion.

The only way adding Tulo for Hoffman makes sense is if the Jays decide to trade Bautista and Edwin for a boatload of young MLB ready talent and shift the focus towards Donaldson/Tulo/Martin as far as the "core" of the team. In that scenario, the Jays would have a real opportunity to add what they desperately need as long as Rogers owns the team, which is cost effective young talent, while at the same time changing the direction of the roster to a more two-way driven group of position players. If they keep Bautista and EE for 2016, then you know they'll be playing for 2016, and that will get them into trouble if 1) it doesn't work and/or 2) they both leave for nothing.

[Santoki]

Regarding Jose and EE trades, keep in mind both qualify for 10&5 trade veto restrictions. So, that slims the market for them. Unless we're trading them to the NL we'd be trading them to a direct playoff rival. Realistically only a contender is going to add them and ones with major league ready players have to have them in abundance or they're a big market team. You'd obviously want to trade them outside of the AL East so that really leaves only a handful of options unless you find an NL partner. That's probably easier for Jose but not so much for EE considering his best position is DH.

[wazabifuzz]

Tulo is going to be introduced today at 2:30 (i.e. 10 minutes from this post! )

[Schad]

I just read a forecast on Globe and Mail.com of a .65 cent dollar in 2016. Maybe it own't be quite so severe, but if that were to happen, don't expect much if any of the payroll savings from dropping Buehrle, Dickey, Romero, Navarro to survive. It's a waste of time to complain about Rogers. We know the modus operandi of a publicly traded corporation, we know its particular modus operandi as a media content company. It's reached the point where complaining about Rogers says more about the fans and media than it does about Rogers. That's why I have progressively moved to the camp that believes the only model by which the Jays can achieve sustainable success is the small market concept that emphasizes smart drafting and patient development. Except the marketplace here loves its mediocrity, as witnessed by all those Jays fans that drive hundreds of clicks to watch them on the road, and all the media that demands action of the GM to end the 22 year drought. It's the same story as the Leafs until things reached such a level of suckitude that even the Rogers/TSN media hacks had to fall in line around a rebuild.

But having made our bed, we need to go in the other direction: make every move, no matter how blissfully stupid long-term, that allows us to win in 2016. Not just because winning in 2016 is potentially our last, best chance, but because doing so might be the only thing that chances our financial calculus, if only temporarily.

And if we come up short...Marlins the **** out of this roster and start anew.

[rarefind]

Presser to introduce Tulo imminent:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/watch-live-tulowitzki-introduced-230-p-m-et/

[wazabifuzz]

it's real guys !

[dagger]

I just read a forecast on Globe and Mail.com of a .65 cent dollar in 2016. Maybe it own't be quite so severe, but if that were to happen, don't expect much if any of the payroll savings from dropping Buehrle, Dickey, Romero, Navarro to survive. It's a waste of time to complain about Rogers. We know the modus operandi of a publicly traded corporation, we know its particular modus operandi as a media content company. It's reached the point where complaining about Rogers says more about the fans and media than it does about Rogers. That's why I have progressively moved to the camp that believes the only model by which the Jays can achieve sustainable success is the small market concept that emphasizes smart drafting and patient development. Except the marketplace here loves its mediocrity, as witnessed by all those Jays fans that drive hundreds of clicks to watch them on the road, and all the media that demands action of the GM to end the 22 year drought. It's the same story as the Leafs until things reached such a level of suckitude that even the Rogers/TSN media hacks had to fall in line around a rebuild.

But having made our bed, we need to go in the other direction: make every move, no matter how blissfully stupid long-term, that allows us to win in 2016. Not just because winning in 2016 is potentially our last, best chance, but because doing so might be the only thing that chances our financial calculus, if only temporarily.

And if we come up short...Marlins the **** out of this roster and start anew.

It seems as if we're basically talking about getting to the same place, just at different times. I have no belief the financial calculus will improve.

[Schad]

It seems as if we're basically talking about getting to the same place, just at different times. I have no belief the financial calculus will improve.

Me neither. But if it doesn't, at least we'd have a playoff run under our belt, at which point we could once and for all admit that Rogers ain't never going to change no matter what, and consequently the only way forward is building from the ground up, and then Marlins the **** out of this roster.

[wazabifuzz]

this guy is media savy just like Donaldson .. just remember we got this guy for Jose Reyes + prospects !

[dagger]

this guy is media savy just like Donaldson .. just remember we got this guy for Jose Reyes + prospects !

The question is whether two years from now we'll be saying it the way we once said we got this guy Dickey for two prospects.

[Lateral Quicks]

"Troy, is it fair to say you left your heart in Colorado?"

Wow, our media sometimes...

[The_Hater]

This team is extremely unbalanced. I'm all for upgrades, and supported the Martin signing and Donaldson trade (who didn't). But consistency wins ball games, and having every other start turn into a blowout isn't a recipe for success. Scoring an extra run in a game where your starter has set you back 7-0 after 2 innings isn't worth very much.

It's unbalanced now but things change quickly in MLB. Remember 2 years ago when the Jays had that deep, efficient bullpen? Remember that previous off-season when we added Dickey, Johnson and Buerhle and had one of the top 5 starting rotations on paper?

I think AA doesn't even want to consider a rent a player. He's trying to extend the possibility of contending for 2-3 years not just swing for the moon this year. So you sign 1-2 decent starters in the off-season, watch a couple of the youngsters jump a level and all of a sudden the starting pitching has improved significantly.

I think the fans are viewing all the moves in the 2015 window while AA is thinking in terms of a 3 year window.

[C Court]

this guy is media savy just like Donaldson .. just remember we got this guy for Jose Reyes + prospects !

The question is whether two years from now we'll be saying it the way we once said we got this guy Dickey for two prospects.

Exactly. These were highly rated prospects and not a couple of longshots. Tulo was once a prospect too.

[Lucky26]

this guy is media savy just like Donaldson .. just remember we got this guy for Jose Reyes + prospects !

The question is whether two years from now we'll be saying it the way we once said we got this guy Dickey for two prospects.

Exactly. These were highly rated prospects and not a couple of longshots. Tulo was once a prospect too.

Except Tulo is not a 39 year-old player with unreliable strengths.

[Schad]

I should take this moment to acknowledge the sheer improbability of an argument where Dagger, Centre Court and myself are on the same side.

[Lateral Quicks]

The question is whether two years from now we'll be saying it the way we once said we got this guy Dickey for two prospects.

Exactly. These were highly rated prospects and not a couple of longshots. Tulo was once a prospect too.

Except Tulo is not a 39 year-old player with unreliable strengths.

But he is unreliable in the sense he's got a terrible injury history, is 30, and will now be playing on turf. Many of us would feel better about this trade if Tulowitzki wasn't such an injury risk.

When he's on the field, he's arguably the best SS in baseball. I'm not disputing that. The only thing people are wary of is giving up three big arms to get him.

[EH15]

We're always caught in the middle ground. Now that we've just traded away 2 of our better prospect arms, it's as good as time to go for it. Before the Tulo trade, I was actually more inclined to blow it up. Sure, watching JD waste his prime here would've been depressing, but it's not a movie we haven't just watched in Bautista. But now, I think you have a small window between now and the next year to make a real run. God knows we're not signing any pitchers in the offseason, so our only real chance is through trades. No rentals, go for someone like Shields. I'd have no problems with sucking for the next 10 years if we go for it now. I think the fans understand it too.

[Mehar]

Very well said. I have said this before- everyone proclaiming Stroman a top of the rotation elite starter need to relax. Everyone said the same about Hutchinson before, and this year he has been a huge disappointment. You cannot simply count on Stroman after his long layoff and small sample size to be automatically penciled in as a sure fire opening day starter. Trading Castro and Huffman to "upgrade a position" with an injury prone Tulo (even though he is a better player than Reyes), without getting couple of very good pitchers in return is still a head scratcher for me.

Unless Rogers is willing to open the purse strings this off-season (i seriously doubt it) to allow AA to sign some very good pitchers, this move was not a necessary one. The pitching is a big question mark for 2016, but we have an full off-season to see what this organization will do in that regard. However, it would have been nice to at least have Syndergaard and Hoffman (young controllable great potential arms) in the rotation for the years ahead, especially with Rogers unwilling to open the purse strings (they are actually spending 12 M less in payroll on opening day this year, when Rogers stooges like Davidi and Wilner said off-season that the payroll will stay the same and not decrease).

But proclaiming Hoffman as a future ACE Is ok? I know what is more likely between Stroman and Hoffman.
And a fact is we have gotten an All-Star SS.

I mean, everybody is saying that this is just the beginning can we not wait. for the end of the trade deadline.
And the beauty of this deal, it is not a rental.. so we can still plan ahead with an All-Star RF,C,SS,3B at the very minimum..

Sure Hoffman is no guarantee. Just like there is no guarantee that Tulo will stay healthy and not be on the DL chunk of the season every year for the duration of the contract. People are saying Reyes is injury prone, but i was even a bit shocked at how many games he has missed the last 6 years. On the turf, which in the past he said he was not a fan of, it remains to be seen if he can be healthy for the rest of his deal. Sure you can plan ahead, but i seriously doubt Rogers and its ability to give AA more money in the coming off-season to plan ahead and improve this team significantly. Beeston said last year the payroll was going to be 137-140 M, but instead it was 125 M on opening day. The people in this forum that said Hoffman is strictly a prospect and is no guarantee, sound very much similar back a couple of years ago who said

Syndergaard is just a prospect and could be a bust. They used that justification for saying the Dickey deal would be good, and that AA is a genius. Two years later, and Syndergaard has looked very impressive, and at age 22 will only get better. Saw him take a perfect game into the 7th inning last night. D'arnaud has played well before he was hurt, and Wuilmer Becerra is showing great potential in the minors. Dickey is a 40 year knuckler who struggles for the first two or three months every year, before he starts playing well. Nothing is a guarantee with prospects, but right now i would be much happier to have young controllable high potential arms like Hoffman, Castro, and Syndergaard, to go along with Sanchez and Stroman for the next couple of years. This is especially the case since Rogers refuses to go all in and i have no faith in them giving AA or any other GM the full resources to go all in to improve the team.