To the people who hated the trades...

[TBRunGood]

It did not take us 22 years to make the playoffs because of the failures of "thinking about our long term future". And while it is possible to win now and think of the future, if I had to choose now, F the future.

Except that it did. We had a ridiculous talent pipeline in the '80s because we were thinking about our long-term future...that's what carried us through several playoff appearances and two World Series titles.

Conversely, look at the major moves we made 1995-2005 or thereabouts: we signed older players. When we had to trade those older players, we received back other older players. We didn't spend heavily in the draft (we were one of the few hardliners unwilling to vary from the slot recommendations) and in international free agency. Our minor league system was bad enough that our long-standing relationship with Syracuse died, and we ended up for a few years in AAA exile, partnering with the 51s in Las Vegas (the absolute last place one wants to develop talent).

And the only reason we had the chance to say "F the future" now is that we spent a few years focusing on the future. Gamed the system to get draft picks, blew through bonus recommendations, signed top-tier Latin kiddies, traded big league talent for top prospects. If we hadn't done that, we would not have had the resources to acquire the talent that we did...and now, we will not have the resources to repeat the process for some time.

I agree with pretty much everything except the bolded; I do think it's possible to repeat the process sooner than people think. It's not like we gave up our top draft picks, and there's still opportunities to trade for prospects if that's what AA wants to do. And it's not like all the prospects the Jays have left have zero value, they will continue to develop for us and some might even turn into extremely valuable assets for the Jays or for a MLBer. We're not supposed to be an A's or Rays kind of team. We're not supposed to be screwed if we go for it all for ONE year and don't win. I mean it even sort of happened in 2013, and while it was extremely disappointing, it wasn't the end of the world. And there really isn't anything that should be stopping the Jays from continuing to sign top tier latin kiddies or go over the bonuses. I just don't think we're completely screwed at all if we don't win now or even next year. It's not really all in, because you can just buy some more assets next year.

[Schad]

I agree with pretty much everything except the bolded; I do think it's possible to repeat the process sooner than people think. It's not like we gave up our top draft picks, and there's still opportunities to trade for prospects if that's what AA wants to do. And it's not like all the prospects the Jays have left have zero value, they will continue to develop for us and some might even turn into extremely valuable assets for the Jays or for a MLBer. We're not supposed to be an A's or Rays kind of team. We're not supposed to be screwed if we go for it all for ONE year and don't win. I mean it even sort of happened in 2013, and while it was extremely disappointing, it wasn't the end of the world. And there really isn't anything that should be stopping the Jays from continuing to sign top tier latin kiddies or go over the bonuses. I just don't think we're completely screwed at all if we don't win now or even next year. It's not really all in, because you can just buy some more assets next year.

There are things preventing us from signing top tier kiddies annually and going over the bonuses: the rules changed. The 2010 and 2011 drafts cannot happen anymore.

[lobosloboslobos]

To be fair to the naysayers, the probability of things turning out as amazingly as they have were not high. The most optimistic expected us to be clawing our way toward a chance at the division.

To me the outcome just emphasizes the fact that ultimately every trade is unpredictable, whereas here on RGM in particular we tend to think of far too many situations as completely predictable, often based on stats, but just as often based on our own ability to speculate without ever taking any responsibility for our speculations. You can make a great case for all kinds of things on paper but reality is always a whole other story. Could anyone have predicted that Bautista would become who he has been for us? Or that trading Rudy Gay would result in the Raps making the playoffs? And there are literally innumerable other examples of things working out for better or worse. That is the nature of sports. Even when teams succeed, as you correctly say, it is almost never because things went according to plan but because the plan suddenly skewed wildly but in a team's favour.

All of which is to say that I continue to believe that while there is such a thing as smart player management in any sport, we should never forget how fine the line is between success and failure. I think that when Jerry West said "In this business if you're right 51% of the time you're doing well" that he wasn't kidding.

How does this relate to the OP's question? dunno. just that we hugely underestimate luck as a success factor. in a way, luck isn't a fluke, its just a totally unpredictable key factor that is necessary to turn talent into titles. Hopefully we have lots more of it!

[Parataxis]

The 93 team wasn't a "1 title and done" team though. It was the culmination and evolution of 8 years of play from 1985 to 1993. A nine season span in which we won 5 division titles (and just barely missed a sixth).

Longer, even. For eleven straight years, the team won 86+ games, winning 89+ eight times. They were one of the five best teams by record in the AL nine times in that span...if transposed to the modern era, they could well have made 8-9 playoff appearances.

Ahh. Yeah, I only really started following the Jays in 86 and 87. DIdn't realise that they were great before the first title too.

[Parataxis]

The 93 team wasn't a "1 title and done" team though. It was the culmination and evolution of 8 years of play from 1985 to 1993. A nine season span in which we won 5 division titles (and just barely missed a sixth).

Of course they weren't. They were the 2nd of a back to back title run.

I'm talking about the 2015 team, which everyone has to admit the future is foggy going forward. We have a very small window of opportunity here. We MIGHT still be playoff calibre next year, but I don't think anyone can say with any confidence about anything after that.

Fair enough. Your use of the word 'another' made me think you were refering to the historical team.

[LLJ]

The 93 team wasn't a "1 title and done" team though. It was the culmination and evolution of 8 years of play from 1985 to 1993. A nine season span in which we won 5 division titles (and just barely missed a sixth).

Of course they weren't. They were the 2nd of a back to back title run.

I'm talking about the 2015 team, which everyone has to admit the future is foggy going forward. We have a very small window of opportunity here. We MIGHT still be playoff calibre next year, but I don't think anyone can say with any confidence about anything after that.

Fair enough. Your use of the word 'another' made me think you were refering to the historical team.

Damn, rereading my post and you're right. Not sure why I wrote 'another'. Most likely possibility is that I was about to write something else and then changed the sentence while forgetting to take that word out.

[Double Helix]

I haven't read through every response but I think an aspect of the "gamble" that perhaps hasn't been talked as much about is what might have happened if AA had completely and utterly failed after initially pitching this draft, develop and then go all-in effort. If it backfired brutally and the fans never came out and the money wasn't coming in would the next GM after him have been given the same kind of budget for the next all-in push? None of us has the answers.

I suspect that concern was also a big reason why some of the more prudent posters were concerned about this all in push initially. The question on the backs of their minds might have been more "Is this the right time? If it fails will ownership punish us with even less money into the future? Will they lose interest?"

The good thing is that AA has proven without a doubt that the fans WILL RETURN in droves if the team is doing things like this. So, if the team makes some money off of this run (especially amid the dollar disparity) then it should bode well for the future of the franchise if for no other reason than the fact that it provides a recent example for Rogers that baseball is still alive and profitable in Canada if the product on the field is right and the team is competitive.

If nothing else comes from this I think it's a success on that basis. Showing Rogers how to build a profitable winner will hopefully shorten the time spans between rebuilds while also reminding of the patience required during the draft and develop phase. Rebuilds do take time but there should never have been a 22 year wait in the first place.

Let's play ball!