SI: Jose Bautista on free agency, "I’d be stupid to leave" Toronto (Update P21)

[Santoki]

Http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/bautista-addresses-his-contract-demands-and-more-in-candid-interview~817975

Skip ahead to about the 8-9 min mark to get to the contract part.

[bluerap23]

Http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/bautista-addresses-his-contract-demands-and-more-in-candid-interview~817975

Skip ahead to about the 8-9 min mark to get to the contract part.

Some backtracking. But it looks like trying to smooth over the edges to put the focus on the season.

[Santoki]

Http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/bautista-addresses-his-contract-demands-and-more-in-candid-interview~817975

Skip ahead to about the 8-9 min mark to get to the contract part.

Some backtracking. But it looks like trying to smooth over the edges to put the focus on the season.

Some but a planned interview like this is exactly the kind of move Bautista would make. I think he knows he made some mistakes in that first one but basically, like you said, just restated all of the things in the media scrum in a softer way.

It doesn't dispel the notion though that he's clearly looking for a bigger contract. The issue here isn't the AAV. I don't think anyone has a problem paying him $25 million a year. It's just that he clearly thinks he can easily play 5 more years and that his aging curve and health are better than anyone else at his age. He can believe that but management has to make that assessment based on stats and historical data.

So clearly the division is term not AAV. Maybe they'll come to an agreement but he made very sure to say he wasn't negotiating. He said they asked for a number and he gave one and that's it. He said because he's a good businessman that he would never give them a number that wasn't win win.

[bluerap23]

Http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/bautista-addresses-his-contract-demands-and-more-in-candid-interview~817975

Skip ahead to about the 8-9 min mark to get to the contract part.

Some backtracking. But it looks like trying to smooth over the edges to put the focus on the season.

Some but a planned interview like this is exactly the kind of move Bautista would make. I think he knows he made some mistakes in that first one but basically, like you said, just restated all of the things in the media scrum in a softer way.

It doesn't dispel the notion though that he's clearly looking for a bigger contract. The issue here isn't the AAV. I don't think anyone has a problem paying him $25 million a year. It's just that he clearly thinks he can easily play 5 more years and that his aging curve and health are better than anyone else at his age. He can believe that but management has to make that assessment based on stats and historical data.

So clearly the division is term not AAV. Maybe they'll come to an agreement but he made very sure to say he wasn't negotiating. He said they asked for a number and he gave one and that's it. He said because he's a good businessman that he would never give them a number that wasn't win win.

easy retort is that he can sign with team options (or bonus clauses where it kicks in based on certain milestones)...

The other thing with the interview, it looks like the Blue Jays played a role in staging it as well. They probably had a discussion (JB and management) around helping both sides from a PR perspective. They probably new the questions in advance and had agreed to responses...

[Santoki]

Some backtracking. But it looks like trying to smooth over the edges to put the focus on the season.

Some but a planned interview like this is exactly the kind of move Bautista would make. I think he knows he made some mistakes in that first one but basically, like you said, just restated all of the things in the media scrum in a softer way.

It doesn't dispel the notion though that he's clearly looking for a bigger contract. The issue here isn't the AAV. I don't think anyone has a problem paying him $25 million a year. It's just that he clearly thinks he can easily play 5 more years and that his aging curve and health are better than anyone else at his age. He can believe that but management has to make that assessment based on stats and historical data.

So clearly the division is term not AAV. Maybe they'll come to an agreement but he made very sure to say he wasn't negotiating. He said they asked for a number and he gave one and that's it. He said because he's a good businessman that he would never give them a number that wasn't win win.

easy retort is that he can sign with team options (or bonus clauses where it kicks in based on certain milestones)...

The other thing with the interview, it looks like the Blue Jays played a role in staging it as well. They probably had a discussion (JB and management) around helping both sides from a PR perspective. They probably new the questions in advance and had agreed to responses...

Bautista would never sign a deal that had incentives. I doubt he would even sign one with a team option unless it's for a 6th year. I think he wants 5 years guaranteed.

[bluerap23]

Some but a planned interview like this is exactly the kind of move Bautista would make. I think he knows he made some mistakes in that first one but basically, like you said, just restated all of the things in the media scrum in a softer way.

It doesn't dispel the notion though that he's clearly looking for a bigger contract. The issue here isn't the AAV. I don't think anyone has a problem paying him $25 million a year. It's just that he clearly thinks he can easily play 5 more years and that his aging curve and health are better than anyone else at his age. He can believe that but management has to make that assessment based on stats and historical data.

So clearly the division is term not AAV. Maybe they'll come to an agreement but he made very sure to say he wasn't negotiating. He said they asked for a number and he gave one and that's it. He said because he's a good businessman that he would never give them a number that wasn't win win.

easy retort is that he can sign with team options (or bonus clauses where it kicks in based on certain milestones)...

The other thing with the interview, it looks like the Blue Jays played a role in staging it as well. They probably had a discussion (JB and management) around helping both sides from a PR perspective. They probably new the questions in advance and had agreed to responses...

Bautista would never sign a deal that had incentives. I doubt he would even sign one with a team option unless it's for a 6th year. I think he wants 5 years guaranteed.

I don't disagree with you. But I would say that if he is truly that confident in his ability he should gamble on himself.

[Skin Blues]

Do you really think that we're living in some kind of colour-blind society? That players' races have nothing to do with how they are covered in the media and perceived by the fans? I've never quite understood why some are so quick to deny that it can be a factor whenever something like this comes up, but it strikes me as incredibly naive.

I didn't say it can't be a factor. But you (well, not you, but most people) can discuss things without dismissing everything as "yeah, but there are still racists, so that's why people don't like him". He's a whiny jack-ss with a persecution complex. That has nothing to do with race, it has nothing to do with anybody else. It's based on his behaviour and his behaviour alone. Give people the respect of treating them as human beings rather than boiling everything down to their skin colour or nationality.

[bringbackhoffa]

Rumor is he has demanded 5 years and 130 million, with a vesting option for a 6th year at 30 million. Jays reportedly would like to do something in the 3 year range of $65-75 million

Is this Marty York? He had a habit of making up rumours out of thin air too.

So....who was kinda right

Also trying to confirm Edwin's demands, term he is looking for is 5 years as he would like to finish his career in Toronto. In terms of $ amount I have not heard anything concrete other than he believes he is a superior player to Victor Martinez and is not considering that as a comparable contact.
Feeling is nothing will get done prior to spring training.

Personal take is that with a draft pick compensation tied to EE, they are only 3 American League teams with the payroll parameters that can fit an Edwin type player that also could use a DH upgrade, feel like a $20 mil annual salary is more than justifiable and can add bonus such as allstar game appearances, playoff and WS bonuses as well which could as $2-3 million annually.

[Randle McMurphy]

I didn't say it can't be a factor. But you (well, not you, but most people) can discuss things without dismissing everything as "yeah, but there are still racists, so that's why people don't like him". He's a whiny jack-ss with a persecution complex. That has nothing to do with race, it has nothing to do with anybody else. It's based on his behaviour and his behaviour alone. Give people the respect of treating them as human beings rather than boiling everything down to their skin colour or nationality.

And I never said there weren't reasons to dislike Jose Bautista. Just like with Josh Donaldson (a man who has received an entirely different kind of treatment than Jose despite their similar behaviour), clearly there are a few. But, whether we like it or not, there is also no denying that race can play a factor in these guys' portrayals and perceptions. I have no idea why Jose Bautista would be any kind of exception in that regard either (and judging by Drew Fairservice's article, I'm apparently not the only one who thinks so).

[Randle McMurphy]

Holy cats, Joey Bats! By that first-cut set of assumptions, Bautista actually projects to be worth more over the life of the extension than he’s reported to have asked—though to be fair, that includes the best of his seasons at the top of the heap, one that figures to be yet another bargain. Removing that from the above calculations yields 17.2 WAR and $135.6 million for 2017–21, or about 10% below the $150 million figure.

Obviously, the variety of scenarios produces a wide range of outcomes, illustrating how much harder it is to project a contract one year before it goes into effect. You can bet Bautista and his agent (Jay Alou, son of former major league outfielder Jesus Alou) know this very well and understand calculations such as these, even if their assumptions on the parameters (cost of a win, inflation, aging curve) differ. Still, going by that second table above, one can see that it only takes a 20% premium to push the asking price above $150 million, and that's with a fairly conservative valuation scenario.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/25/jose-bautista-extension-blue-jays-whats-he-really-worth

Is Bautista's reported ask really so out of line with his projected value? According to Jaffe's analysis, perhaps not.

[UneducatedFan86]

Holy cats, Joey Bats! By that first-cut set of assumptions, Bautista actually projects to be worth more over the life of the extension than he’s reported to have asked—though to be fair, that includes the best of his seasons at the top of the heap, one that figures to be yet another bargain. Removing that from the above calculations yields 17.2 WAR and $135.6 million for 2017–21, or about 10% below the $150 million figure.

Obviously, the variety of scenarios produces a wide range of outcomes, illustrating how much harder it is to project a contract one year before it goes into effect. You can bet Bautista and his agent (Jay Alou, son of former major league outfielder Jesus Alou) know this very well and understand calculations such as these, even if their assumptions on the parameters (cost of a win, inflation, aging curve) differ. Still, going by that second table above, one can see that it only takes a 20% premium to push the asking price above $150 million, and that's with a fairly conservative valuation scenario.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/25/jose-bautista-extension-blue-jays-whats-he-really-worth

Is Bautista's reported ask really so out of line with his projected value? According to Jaffe's analysis, perhaps not.

I don't think anyone is really arguing that Bautista might be overvaluing himself. I think the main issue is the term and the fact that there hasn't been anyone who's been his age and been able to produce at such a level. There is a huge fear (a legitimate one in my mind) that Jose could just breakdown at any minute. He's already showing signs of not being able to field at the same level. Plus he has been very vocal about not wanting to play 1st base. So paying someone upwards to 30mil to DH... is not the best option for the longterm success of a team. Especially if the Blue Jays have a hard cap on themselves.

[Skin Blues]

Jaffe's "analysis" consists only of taking a weighted mean of raw WAR total without any aging curve applied. It's basically the simplistic Marcel The Monkey projections without breaking things down by individual stat categories, and without using aging curves for all of those individual categories. By this system, Bautista is worth 5.2 WAR in 2016. According to actual projection systems that are constantly refined and face annual scrutiny over their effectiveness and have shown to be the best in the business, he's worth less than 4 WAR in 2016 (3.9 WAR says ZiPS, 3.7 WAR says Steamer). Being generous and starting him off at 4.2 WAR in 2016 and dropping his WAR total by the same 1 WAR in each subsequent year lowers Bautista's value over 2017-2021 to $47M. Combined with the $14M he's owed in 2016 that puts a 6 year deal worth $61M. This is not a worst case scenario, this is a mean expected value, using Jaffe's WAR inflation and aging curve. It's nice that he acknowledged the necessity of an aging curve in this portion, but strange that he didn't use it to get the initial WAR starting point. So yes, Bautista's request is absurd, and his refusal to negotiate all but signs his ticket out of town.

[Duffman100]

Could we buy some years by sticking him in LF if his defense starts to go?

[The_Hater]

Could we buy some years by sticking him in LF if his defense starts to go?

His defense is already slipping and since his arm is his biggest asset, moving him to LF is likely counter productive. 1B is his most likely destination.

[Duffman100]

Could we buy some years by sticking him in LF if his defense starts to go?

His defense is already slipping and since his arm is his biggest asset, moving him to LF is likely counter productive. 1B is his most likely destination.

But wouldn't his arm be more important in LF than at 1B?

[Randle McMurphy]

Holy cats, Joey Bats! By that first-cut set of assumptions, Bautista actually projects to be worth more over the life of the extension than he’s reported to have asked—though to be fair, that includes the best of his seasons at the top of the heap, one that figures to be yet another bargain. Removing that from the above calculations yields 17.2 WAR and $135.6 million for 2017–21, or about 10% below the $150 million figure.

Obviously, the variety of scenarios produces a wide range of outcomes, illustrating how much harder it is to project a contract one year before it goes into effect. You can bet Bautista and his agent (Jay Alou, son of former major league outfielder Jesus Alou) know this very well and understand calculations such as these, even if their assumptions on the parameters (cost of a win, inflation, aging curve) differ. Still, going by that second table above, one can see that it only takes a 20% premium to push the asking price above $150 million, and that's with a fairly conservative valuation scenario.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/25/jose-bautista-extension-blue-jays-whats-he-really-worth

Is Bautista's reported ask really so out of line with his projected value? According to Jaffe's analysis, perhaps not.

I don't think anyone is really arguing that Bautista might be overvaluing himself. I think the main issue is the term and the fact that there hasn't been anyone who's been his age and been able to produce at such a level. There is a huge fear (a legitimate one in my mind) that Jose could just breakdown at any minute. He's already showing signs of not being able to field at the same level. Plus he has been very vocal about not wanting to play 1st base. So paying someone upwards to 30mil to DH... is not the best option for the longterm success of a team. Especially if the Blue Jays have a hard cap on themselves.

Oh, I'm definitely not advocating for signing Bautista at such a price with our restricted budget. There are better ways to spend that money than on an aging slugger. Just looking at where Bautista is coming from in these negotiations (and how his demands might not be all that ridiculous given his high performance level going into 2016).

[Skin Blues]

Could we buy some years by sticking him in LF if his defense starts to go?

His defense is already slipping and since his arm is his biggest asset, moving him to LF is likely counter productive. 1B is his most likely destination.

But wouldn't his arm be more important in LF than at 1B?

Yeah, but his poor range hurts more over there than at 1B. There's really no good spot to put a guy that can't play defense anymore.

[The_Hater]

Could we buy some years by sticking him in LF if his defense starts to go?

His defense is already slipping and since his arm is his biggest asset, moving him to LF is likely counter productive. 1B is his most likely destination.

But wouldn't his arm be more important in LF than at 1B?

For sure. Just saying that if he's going to play the corner OF he's more useful in RF than LF since his arm is still an asset. He'd be equally bad chasing down fly balls in either spot which is the reason he needs to shift to either 1B or DH down the road.

[Santoki]

OP may want to update this title again as Bautista apparently told Gammons that he wants a 6-year deal...

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-jose-bautista-and-the-future-of-athletic-preparation-and-longevity/

[North_of_Border]

OP may want to update this title again as Bautista apparently told Gammons that he wants a 6-year deal...

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-jose-bautista-and-the-future-of-athletic-preparation-and-longevity/

Trade Bautista. Do it right and grow the window by a few years